Jose Abreu

Get used to this name. On Sunday (April 27), Abreu broke the rookie record for RBIs in the month of April with 31, and he still has a number of games to go. As of tonight in the 7th inning, he has 0 RBIs against the Rays but still could get more. Abreu also has two more games to go after this game, both home games against the Tigers. According to the MLB At Bat app, 2011 Cy Young winner Justin Verlander is throwing Game One of the two-game series (April 29th), and 2013 Cy Young winner Max Scherzer has Game 2 (April 30th). Yes, Abreu does have two games left but they are against some of the best pitchers in the game. That said, Detroit's bullpen is...inadequate we'll say, so if the tables are set he might able to collect a few more in the late innings. 

In 13 out of 26 games played, Abreu has 18 of his league-leading 31 RBIs at home. 24 of his 31 have also come against right-handed pitchers, which of course Verlander and Scherzer both are. Interestingly enough, though, Abreu has collected 13 RBIs with two strikes on him, so it will be an interesting battle between two of the leagues premiere strike throwers versus an excellent two strike hitter. 

Also in his favor is the fact that he simply owns Verlander. In the April 22nd Tigers/White Sox game, Abreu took Verlander deep to centerfield

Abreu taking Verlander to the woodshed.

(an impressive feat in the spacious Comerica Park) in the first inning and then collected another hit in the 6th. We'll see how Verlander fares against Abreu tomorrow night against the Sox, he is 15-12 with a 3.98 ERA against them in his career. We have a very small sample size for Verlander vs. Abreu only (one game), but the history shows Abreu has the upper hand. 

Abreu had the complete opposite luck against Scherzer. Later in that same series, the April 24th game against the Sox, Scherzer struck Abreu out twice on the way to his second win of the season. Abreu would finish 0-5. 

A lot of this depends on the rest of the White Sox team too and whether or not they can get on base. Obviously Abreu is a major power threat, driving himself in 10 times, but with others on base, there is some pressure off the new slugger and he could just strengthen his record. 

Abreu has the rookie record, beating Pujols' 2001 mark of 30 steaks. Abreu has an outside shot at the MLB record for April, owned by Juan Gonzalez's 35 RBIs. It would take some handsome batting but it can be done. 

Although he is in the AL Central and will undoubtedly terrorize my Tigers for years to come, I love seeing Abreu crush a baseball and watch it fly into the warm Chicago nights. With Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn aging quickly, he will be a more than capable replacement at either DH or first base. I think he is an incredible talent and I am thankful that 1) he is in the Majors and not stuck in Cuba,

2) is on my fantasy team and no one else's, and 3) you took the time to read this post. Enjoy what's left of your Monday. 

Also, happy birthday to Barry Larkin! Michigan grad, I shouted "Go Blue" at the Induction parade last summer and he gave me an air-fist bump. It was pretty sweet. Have a good one. 

Happy Babe Ruth Day!

1947 was a whale of a year for Major League Baseball. Jackie Robinson became the first African American to play professional baseball and went on to win the inaugural Rookie of the Year award; the Yankees won the World Series, beginning their dynasty of the Golden Era, winning 9 of the next 15 championships. 1947 also bid farewell to one of the greatest sluggers that ever lived. 

On this date in 1947, the Yankees honored Babe Ruth and his service to the team and the league with a speech before the Sunday afternoon game against the Washington Senators (This link has the New York Times article recounting the Babe's speech and the day's festivities). Ruth, debilitated and weakened by operations battling his esophageal cancer, took the microphone at home plate and thanked the New York fans for their loyalty. He also mentioned the importance of teaching young men baseball because according to Ruth, the world only has one sport, and that is baseball. In a raspy and fragile voice, the Babe shared his feelings and with a feeble arm waved to the Yankee faithful for one last time. 

Courtesy of Life Magazine.

Yankee fans were no strangers to sad farewells. Lou Gehrig's "Luckiest Man" speech on July 4th of 1939 brought even the toughest of souls to tears, when even Babe Ruth came back to hear what his teammate had to say. Fast forward eight years to 1947 to Babe Ruth Day, when an aura of nostalgia combined with melancholy settled into the House That Ruth Built to watch the man that changed baseball kiss it goodbye forever. 

Ruth passed away in August of 1948.

Let's take a look at his career. Ruth is obviously most famous for his 714 home runs, a plateau that seemed completely insurmountable to the pre-integration fans. The fact that no one would touch his single season record until 1961 is a good testament to how far ahead of the game he was in terms of power numbers. He set the single-season home run record 4 years in a row. 

The called shot, the Curse of the Bambino, Murderer's Row, the Inaugural Hall of Fame induction class; all things associated with the Babe that baseball fans will never forget. But I want to point some things that go unnoticed in his career.

-Average. Ruth wasn't a Carlos Pena or Adam Dunn of today; he was a slugger with average too. His .342 career average places him 9th all time (he also hit .393 in 1923). In that 1923 season, he hit .459 in 31 games in July, hit .414 against right-handed pitchers, .418 in the second half of the season, and .406 in Yankee wins. Wow.

-On base percentage. Because of his bat control and high average, Ruth's on-base percentage is also astronomical, landing him at .474 for his career, second all-time behind Ted Williams' .482. In his 1923 MVP season, he had an on-base percentage of .545. That means literally more than half of his plate appearances resulted in him reaching first base safely. I don't even know what to say about that. 

-He never struck out more than 100 times in a season. 

-He flirted with 6,000 total bases in his career (6th all time). 

Happy Babe Ruth Day to you and yours. Take a minute to appreciate not only how talented of a hitter (and pitcher!) he was, but also what a tremendous gentleman he was and what he did for the game of baseball. 

Thanks for reading. 

Pitch Counts

So my cousin was watching the Tigers game the other day when Scherzer was pitching. Scherzer came out of the game after 110 pitches against the White Sox, after allowing 7 hits, 2 earned runs, and striking out 10. So why did he come out? Especially when the 9-1-2 hitters (Tyler Flowers, Jordan Danks, Marcus Semien) were up to lead off the 7th inning.

Tigers fans remember the horrible Game 2 of the ALCS last year, in which Big Papi promptly hit a grand slam off of Benoit to seal the game and if you ask me, the series. Nonetheless, there was a similar situation. Scherzer had gone 7 strong innings against the Red Sox, allowing 2 hits, walking 2, and striking out 13, but Leyland elected to take him and go to the bullpen, which allowed four times as many runs in one inning as Scherzer did in 7. Leyland alluded to pitch count being the main factor that he removed the Cy Young winner, but all Tigers fans know all too well what happened next.

Either way, the question at hand was about pitch counts and how pitchers these days are so bound to that century mark. Few pitchers have the durability/longevity to go over 100 pitches a start for an entire season. So I'm combining my two favorite loves here: baseball and history!

Last year, the Marlins shut down Jose Fernandez in September because of his pitch count to preserve his arm. The New York Mets did a similar thing with Matt Harvey, and he is still on the DL for the year. But what about the past? What about the pitchers who threw almost 6,000 innings in a career? 

Let's do a bit of a comparison. "Big Train" Walter Johnson pitched from 1907 to 1927, the age of 19 to 39. That in itself is really impressive, but even more than that, he threw 531 complete games, 5,900+ innings (side note, he had a career ERA of 2.17, wow), and faced 23,000+ batters in his career. He was the premiere pitcher of the Dead Ball Era (though his career spilled over into the Live Ball Era as well). He'll be our Dead Ball sample and we'll use Randy Johnson, shoo-in Hall of Famer, 5 time Cy Young winner, and career leader in strikeouts per 9 innings. 

They are both named Johnson, so they are obviously the perfect duo to compare about durability. Walter Johnson pitched 21 years, won 417 games; Randy Johnson pitched 22 years, won 303 games. Here's how this will work. I'll list a category (durability related), the career stat, the single season best, and a general winner. 

Games started: RJ 603/35; WJ 666/42
Complete games: RJ 100/12; WJ 531/38
Shutouts: RJ 37/4; WJ 110/11
Innings pitched: RJ 4135.1/271.2; WJ 5914.1/371.2
Batters faced: RJ 17,067/1,079; WJ 23,405/1,413

In 1999, Randy Johnson's year in which he led the league in innings pitched and batters faced, the most pitches he threw in one game was 142, and the fewest he threw was 93. Unfortunately, Baseball Reference does not have pitch counts available for Walter Johnson, but here's my theory so why pitchers back in the day: medicine, ball construction, and pitch types.

Medicine: Pre-integration teams were unaware of how to address tired arms, other than rest. Guys like Walter Johnson would pitch 300 innings and virtually had no rehabilitation, compared to this: 

This was courtesy of the Mets on Twitter; Daisuke Matsuzaka threw 15 pitches in a saving effort for the Mets on April 24th and had that get-up on after his exhausting outing (sarcasm). I think the pitchers back then, since they never iced or anything, were just so much physically stronger than everybody else that it never really mattered. So when my son starts playing ball, he'll never ice! He'll be the strongest cookie on the block. Just kidding. 

Ball Construction: back in the Dead Ball Era, one game usually used one ball. After the first three innings, the ball was dirty, spat upon, muddied, and physically mutilated. So it became easier for pitchers to retire other batters. Unless hitters could place the ball easily, they usually would weakly ground out or fly out so the pitchers had a much easier time to retire them. Blow up innings were so much rarer because there were so few home runs. Because of that, innings pitched increased, batters faced increased, and shutouts increased.

Pitch type: fastballs and changeups. Curveballs and sliders were also very rare; pitchers relied on pure speed to retire batters. Rumors of the past have it that Walter Johnson was the hardest throwing pitcher that ever lived, which would make a lot of sense as to why (Walter) Johnson was such a successful pitcher in his day. 

So there's my thought for the day. I don't think the pitchers now are any more or any less talented than the pitchers of the pre-integration era, but I think that it's just an interesting difference that a hundred years makes. Thanks for reading. 

The 1999 MVP Race

When I was a wee tot without cable television, the only baseball I got to watch was the postseason. Admittedly, in 1999, I remember very little as it is, other than worshipping Derek Jeter. I was looking through his stats and noticed he never had an MVP despite his incredible 1999 season, where he hit .349/.438/.552 with 219 hits (league leading), 24 home runs and 102 RBIs on his way to an All Star selection. On top of that, his Yankees won the World Series in a sweep over the Braves. 

But Jeter only finished 6th in the MVP voting. 6th!

The order is as follows:

Please forgive the tiny picture, but that was a lot easier than typing out all their stats. Let's hear it for technology!

First things first, all of the players shown in the screenshot above were on playoff teams. The Yankees swept the Rangers, and Red Sox beat the Indians 3 games to 2. All of these players are valuable to their team, but looking back, I think Jeter deserved this MVP. He played the second-most games of anyone in the top 7, had the highest WAR for position players (though I am anti-WAR), 2nd-highest OBP, and the most hits by a long shot. But to me, the MVP voting isn't just stats, that's what Silver Sluggers and All-Star starts are for. I always decide an MVP by their removal from the team, which is pretty similar to WAR. Call me a hypocrite; I prefer Romantic.

There are a couple of things that stick out to me. In the past 30 years, there have only been a handful of pitchers to win the MVP award (Clemens in 1986, Eckersley in 1992, and Verlander in 2011), but Pedro had better seasons than all of them, and still didn't win the MVP. Pedro was a shoo-in for the Cy Young award and pitchers really have to blow the voters out of the water to be considered, but there is an argument to be made for Pedro winning it over Pudge. Pudge had a great year, don't get me wrong, but I don't think he is the most valuable player. 

I think Pudge won it because of his defensive capability. In 1999, he threw out a league-leading 55% of runners, which was 5% better than the next best catcher, and only allowed 1 passed ball the whole season. I still think Jeter deserved it, despite a .978 fielding percentage. I put a lot of emphasis on team success. The fact that the Yankees went on to sweep the stacked Braves says a lot. The Indians, Rangers, and Red Sox all had two players in the top 7; the Indians were swept in the first round, and the Sox won only 1 game against the Yankees (Pedro's win). 

Okay, okay. I think either Pedro or Jeter should have won it. Pedro got more first place votes, but not enough overall votes to win. In Game 3 of the ALCS, Martinez vs. Clemens, Jeter got a single in his first at-bat, and struck out in his next at-bat, a perfect example of their high levels of talent and MVP caliber seasons. I know postseason stats aren't supposed to be taken into account for the playoffs, which may be a reason also why these guys were left out. They were also clean throughout their careers. Looking back, Pudge was always rumored to have used steroids, and Palmiero and Ramirez were suspended for it. 

Regardless, this race was stacked. Everyone in the top 7 pictured had a legitimate case for the MVP. Pudge had the best combination between offense and defense; Pedro had the best defense, Jeter had the best overall offense, but Jeter won it all. If you ask him, I'm sure he'd much rather have rings than MVPs, but I still think he had a shot at it.

The next few years were not as close as the 1999 race. 2000 and 2001 were still pretty close in terms of stats, but the voting was more spread out. In 1999, Pudge only got 64% of the share while Pedro got 61% of it, the closest margin in the last 15 years, easily.  What a time to be alive. I predicted Trout to win it over Cabrera this year in a two-horse race. Not a 7 horse race like this one. 

Cheers to the weekend. Thanks for reading. 

Game Notes 4/19

Hi again everyone, forgive me for not posting in a while. With the weather warming up in the old mitten (the state of Michigan), I've found it very difficult to write when I can go play catch in the sun. 

Yesterday was a pretty wild day in the Major Leagues. That is why we all love baseball.

First things first, Nationals manager Bryan Williams took rising star Bryce Harper out of a close game in the sixth inning because of a "lack of hustle". After failing to get a hit in his first two at-bats, Harper faced a similar fate after hitting a weak ground ball to pitcher Lance Lynn. Harper put his head down and solemnly trotted about 50 feet down the line until he peeled off into the dugout - before the ball had even reached first basemen's Adams' glove. This is where Williams was furious, so he simply removed Harper from the game. In the 9th, his replacement Kevin Frandsen came up with runners on second and third with one out and grounded to the third basemen Carpenter, scoring a run, but also hurting the rally. After the game, Harper gave a mature answer to the media, saying he understood Williams' choice and its in the past - its time to regroup and keep playing. Harper is in the lineup today for the finale against the Cardinals, and as of right now is 0-1. The funniest part, though, is the program of yesterday's game: 

Courtesy of Darren Rovell on Twitter.

Staying in the National League, the Braves and Mets had a battle of their own. In a 7-3 game in the 9th, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez sent stud closer Craig Kimbrel into the game, his first in about a week. Kimbrel was dealing with some arm soreness, nothing major, but enough to sit him down - you don't want to lose the best closer in the game. Kimbrel had some control issues, hitting Eric Young Jr., and then allowing a double to Captain America David Wright, a single to Curtis Granderson, and walking Lucas Duda. Gonzalez then came to the mound to remove Kimbrel from the game, but was met with some opposition. After exchanging some words, replays show Kimbrel mouthing "this is bull [feces]" under his breath. Flamethrower Jordan Walden then came in to retire Travis d'Arnaud and notch his first save of the season. 

I also got the pleasure of going to my first Tigers game of the season, a 5-2 win over the Angels. The Tigers had not beaten the Angels since September of 2012, so it was nice seeing a victory. For the first time in his young but illustrious career, Mike Trout struck out four times in a game. Every great player has had a golden sombrero some time or another in his career, it's a matter of how they react. Trout is in the lineup today and is 0-2 with another strikeout as I'm writing this. Youngster Nick Castellanos had a frozen rope of a home run as did Albert Pujols. We were lucky enough to have the second row behind the visitors' dugout, so seeing these guys 20 feet away really shows you how muscular all of them are, and explains why Pujols' 498th career home run was a missile off the first pitch he saw from Joe Nathan in the ninth. I was keeping score next to my dad, and just looked up in time to see him swing and send it 400 feet away in a matter of seconds. The best part: the Tigers fan that caught the ball threw it right back. It made my heart sing. That said, the sun was pretty brutal, I suffered a nasty sunglasses tan...

Kids, wear your sunscreen.

Other news and notes: 

• Congratulations Evan Longoria on becoming the Rays franchise leader in home runs
• Jays starter Mark Buerhle improves to 4-0 with a 5-0 win over the Indians
• Marlins starter Henderson Alvarez threw a 2-hit shutout using only 90 pitches against the Mariners - fun fact, that is the longest travel any team will ever have! 

It's been a great start to the season for all baseball fans! Thanks for reading and Happy Easter!

Ice Cold Allie Reynolds

In my time at the Hall of Fame, one of our projects was to do a little biography on a Native American player. I picked Rudy York, first basemen for the Tigers in the Golden Era (WWII), which led me to some more research last semester about other Native Americans in baseball, and specifically the ones that played during WWII. One of the names that kept coming up was Allie "Superchief" Reynolds, pitcher for the Indians and Yankees. I had heard the name before but never really delved into his career or his legacy. 

Reynolds, a Creek Indian, was born in Oklahoma in 1917. He bounced around the minor and independent leagues throughout his early twenties, when the war gave him his opportunity to play professionally at the highest level. Future Hall of Famer and strikeout machine Bob Feller had enlisted in the Navy near the end of 1941 (he was the first Major Leaguer to enlist) and lesser known Canadian reliever Joe Krakauskas served for his respective country as well. The Indians needed pitching, and they turned to Reynolds.

Reynolds himself attempted to serve in the military after his 1942 season, but old football injuries from Oklahoma State (it was not called that when he attended) prevented him from passing his physical and he was required to stay home and play ball. After a few more solid years with the Indians (51-47, 3.33), especially being a nice complement to Bob Feller upon his return, Reynolds was sent to the Yankees.

The ensuing years in the Bronx could arguably be the greatest playoff run in the history of sports. The Yankees won 5 consecutive World Series titles and 6 of  7 from 1947-1953 (Reynolds former Indians won in 1948, their last one - which is now the longest active American League drought). Reynolds was lucky enough to be not only on the roster but was a clutch pitcher in the postseason.

Reynolds stepped up his game when he donned the pinstripes. In his time in Cleveland, he snuck over the .500 mark by 4 games, which is respectable. In his time in New York, he went 131-60, almost twice as good of a winning percentage, and a 3.30 ERA. He also collected 41 saves. His best year came in 1952, when he won 20 games, lost 8, and posted an ERA of 2.06 at the age of 35. In 244 innings, he struck out 160 batters, threw 6 shutouts, and walked 97. He finished 2nd in the MVP voting to the A's Bobby Shantz, who went 24-7 with a 2.48 ERA. Interestingly enough, Reynolds' teammates Mickey Mantle (ever heard of him?) and Yogi Berra finished third and fourth in the MVP voting, respectively, which proves how truly great the Yankees were. 

What really separated Reynolds from the field was his postseason performance. Like I mentioned earlier, the post World War II Yankees won 5 straight rings, but none of them were easy. They swept the Athletics in 1950, but won Games 1, 2, and 3 by only one run a piece, and the whole run differential was +6 for 4 games. Though they swept, it was not a blowout. Reynolds was absolutely stellar in the World Series for the Yankees. 

See for yourself:     

1947 Game 2 vs. Brooklyn: CG, 3 R, 6 K, 2 BB

·      1949 Game 1 vs. Brooklyn: SHO, 2 H, 9 K

·      1950 Game 2 at Philadelphia: CG (10 innings), 1 R, 6 K

·      1951 Game 4 at New York Giants: CG, 2 R, 7 K

·      1952 Game 2 vs. Brooklyn: SHO, 4 H, 10 K

In total, in the postseason, Reynolds has a career 7-2 record, a 2.79 ERA, 62 K's, and a WHIP of 1.203 in 77.1 innings pitched. He also has, if you ask me, some of the most cold-blooded performances in postseason history. Let's delve.

1949: The Yankees and cross town rival Dodgers had identical regular season records to meet in the Fall Classic. The Dodgers were a young team that could do it all. They hit .274 as a team, 2nd in the NL, scored 879 runs, 1st in the NL, posted a 3.80 team ERA, 2nd in the NL, and struck out 743 batters, also 1st in the NL. On both sides of the ball, they were fearsome. The roster was also riddled with future Hall of Famers, including Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, and Duke Snider. They obviously came to play. But so did Reynolds. In Game 1, he held the Dodgers to two hits (Spider Jorgensen double in top of the first, Pee Wee Reese single in the 8th), and struck out 9. Duke Snider struck out three times, and Roy Campanella struck out once. Reynolds provided as much offense in his own bat as the entire Dodgers lineup did. Reynolds collected hits of his own (double in the third, single in the sixth). This start set the tone for the rest of the Series, which the Yankees would in 5 games (Reynolds also provided a save in Game 4). 

1950: As if he wasn't satisfied with 2 rings already and an absolutely dominant performance in 1949, Reynolds outdid himself in 1950 against the Athletics. The A's were statistically a much worse than the Dodgers, and Reynolds performed accordingly. Exactly one year after his Game 1 start against the Dodgers, Reynolds repeated his magic, holding the Phillies to 7 hits and one run across 10 innings of work. That's right, he went above and beyond the typical complete game to deliver the win to the Yankees. The Yankees jumped to an early lead in the second inning, and would hold it until the 5th when Richie Ashburn would drive in Mike Goliat on a sac fly. The game would remain locked at 1-1 until the Yankee Clipper himself, Joe DiMaggio, at the age of 35, would promptly untie it with a home run in the 10th off of Robin Roberts, the A's starter who also pitched 10 innings. 

Reynolds and DiMaggio after Game 1 against the A's.

Reynolds came out in the bottom of the 10th and allowed a leadoff walk. After a sac bunt, the tying run was at 2nd base with one out, but Reynolds stepped up to make Ashburn pop out to first and then he would strike out Dick Sisler on 4 pitches to end the game with an exclamation. Again, this game set the tone for the series. The A's had no answer for the Yankees dominant pitching and the Yankees took home their 3rd ring in 4 years and 2nd in a row. 

Reynolds continued his dominance well into his career. I highly suggest looking at his playoff numbers on Baseball Reference. 

Should he be in the Hall of Fame? 182 wins, 3.33 ERA, a couple thousand strikeouts, plenty of rings, and 4 All-Star appearances. I think so. But that's a different argument for a different day. For now, let's just revel in his October pitching.

Thanks for reading. 

Who is Charlie Blackmon?

In the youthful 2014 season, there have been a number of hot starts, faces in new places, and rising stars. Anyone with an ear to the ground in the baseball world has heard the story lines of Tanaka in pinstripes, Cano out of pinstripes, Puig's discipline issues, and Hamilton's injury (more on him later).

The thing is, a lot of these story lines have little to do with actual performance on the field, except for that of Charlie Blackmon, the 27-year old Rockies outfielder. His quiet confidence and growth in the Rockies system has resulted in a starting spot for what is a very talented outfield. Flanked by Gold Glover and Silver Slugger Carlos Gonzalez and reigning batting champion Michael Cuddyer, Blackmon is no slouch. But how did he get here? Walk with me.

Blackmon was born July 1, 1986 in Texas, though he grew up in Georgia. After a few years at Young Harris College, Blackmon transferred to Georgia Tech and was a pitcher/outfielder, graduating in 2008. In his final year, he hit .396 in all 62 games for the Yellow Jackets, compiling 99 hits (including 8 home runs) as well as 25 steals in 30 attempts. After being named to the All-ACC team, the Rockies drafted him in the 2nd round of the amateur draft right after graduation, where he matriculated to the Northwest League with a $538,000 signing bonus (lucky dog). 

This was not his first time around the block with being drafted, mind you. The Marlins drafted him in the 28th round directly out of high school (I think I would have gone in the first round but I don't like to give my cell phone number out so the scouts never called me) in 2004, and the Red Sox again in the 20th round in 2005 after his first year at junior college. It wasn't until 2008 when he finally graduated and his hitting ability stuck.

At the age of 22, Blackmon started his long and arduous climb towards the big leagues. In his 2008 season at Short Season A ball with Tri-City, he hit .338 in 68 games. The brass took notice of his pure lefty swing and each successive year after 2008, he moved up the ranks in the minors: 2009 found Blackmon in High A, 2010 in AA, and 2011 in AAA. Blackmon, true to form, is a .309 career hitter in the minors and has been a fan favorite at AAA Colorado Springs for the last three years.

Unfortunately for the Colorado Springs fans, Blackmon probably won't be seeing them too much anymore.

Blackmon's big league debut came in the 2011 season. The Rockies outfield boasted from left to right a trio of Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Seth Smith, a salty three-headed beast featuring speed, average, and power to all fields. On the bench were equally lethal backups Ryan Spilborghs (in competition with Mike Moustakas for the coolest baseball name in the 21st century) and Eric Young, Jr. However, when Dexter Fowler missed June 5 to July 14 due to injury, this opened the door for old Charlie: Blackmon debuted on June 7th against the Padres, going 0-3 and playing left field. Gonzalez moved to center for the rest of the Fowler's absence, and Blackmon actually played nearly every day until Fowler's return. In his first stint, Blackmon hit .255 with a home run and 5/6 steals. 

Similar to his minor league progression, Blackmon saw more playing time in 2012 (.283 in 42 games) and even more in 2013 (.309 in 82 games). That leads us to where we are today. Now that speedster Fowler is in Houston, it seems as if the starting center job is his to lose. Drew Stubbs has traditionally been a centerfielder, coming off of a few decent seasons in Cleveland, but he is off to a wicked slow start in 2014. Must be the thin air. In 10 games (7 starts) this year, Blackmon is hitting an incredible .471.

He really stole the stage about a week ago against the Diamondbacks, when he went 6-6 with a home run, three doubles, and 5 RBI's. He was a triple short of the cycle in the 12-2 win. In an interview with MLB Network, Blackmon goodheartedly says he had never done that well since front yard whiffle ball where he went 7-7. As the year progresses, with CarGo in left and Cuddy in right, the Rockies outfield could potentially be the best offensive outfield in the National League. In a division where many picked the Dodgers to run away with the competition (including this guy), folks might want to hold off their predictions until later in the season. 

Blackmon seems like a nice guy (he has an incredible beard). At the age of 27, soon to turn 28, he is entering his physical prime. I think he has the tools and the pretty lefty swing to make this a memorable year, not only for himself, but for the Rockies as well. It was a major vote of confidence by the Rockies to send Fowler away. Whether the plan was to have Blackmon start all along or not I do not know - Stubbs and Brandon Barnes are solid players, but Blackmon has the edge.

Best of luck to you, Charlie. 

Thanks for reading.

Are The Fish for Real?

It's been nice having baseball back every day. For the most part, the divisions and leagues are relatively how I predicted them. The Giants are pleasantly surprising, out of the gate at a 6-2 clip and win yesterday over the West-rival Diamondbacks. I predicted the Giants to finish third in their division, but if they keep this up, look out. 

Another pleasant surprise are the Miami Marlins. With their bright green stadium and brighter orange jerseys, the Fish have jumped off to a quick 5-3 start, taking 2 from the Rockies to open the season and then taking 2 from the Padres to complete their west coast tour.

Things slowed down a little bit today when they ran into the Nationals, who are a much better team than either the Rockies or Padres. The Marlins lost 5-0 to the Nats, who were powered by a great start by Gio Gonzalez, who went 6 innings, allowing only 3 hits, walking 2 and striking out 5. 

My good friend who is a Marlins fan texted me today saying "The crappy Marlins offense is back :(" which made me wonder - are the Marlins for real? Or are they slowly reverting back to their sputtering offense of 2013, when they scored only 513 runs? 

In terms of runs scored, the Marlins have scored twice as many runs as they have allowed (before today's game), which is incredible. Thanks to great starts from Fernandez and Eovaldi to kick off the season, they held a potent Colorado offense to 14 runs in 3 games, and a less potent San Diego offense to 6 runs in 3 games. 

Here's my theory: with the offseason acquisitions of Saltalamacchia and Furcal (among others), the Marlins are a competitive team. They are talented, though at some positions it is B-list talent. That said, when they play teams like Colorado and San Diego, those guys will be able to compete. But, when they play the top of the top like the Nationals or the Braves (which they will both play 19 times throughout the course of the season), unfortunately I don't think they will be up to snuff. I don't think they'll be as bad as last season, but don't expect them in the title conversation or anything. My buddy is optimist they will be at .500 for the year. I think that is an admirable and reachable goal for the Marlins. They have the pitching; Fernandez is obviously great and the rest of their rotation is solid. They then turn the ball over to Steve Cishek whose odd delivery and even more oddly spelled last name makes him a great closer - 34 saves last year for a team that won 62 games. 

No, the Marlins are not 'for real' but I think they can compete and play spoiler down the stretch. Either way, they are a fun team to watch - despite the stadium. Thanks for reading!

Beast Mode vs. Millville Meteor

The roommate is back at it again with his crazy claims and predictions, but this one has some traction to it. 

Last night, while he challenged me to name the entire starting roster of the 2006 World Series bound Tigers team, somehow Matt Kemp (also known as Beast Mode) came up compared to the young gun Mike Trout. So the roommate made the claim when healthy, Matt Kemp is a better player than Mike Trout. I put that statement in bold face text because it is a bold face claim. Let's scrutinize.

Defense

We all remember that home run Trout robbed his rookie year from JJ Hardy that became one of the highlight images of the 2012: 

Hardy hit a Jered Weaver slider to the warning track in the right-center power alley in the first inning on June 27 - Trout wasn't having any of it.

He jumped out of the stadium to rob this thing and has made himself a defensive stud, not too far off of Jim Edmonds. He was 2nd last year in putouts as a centerfielder with 359 (a lot of that goes to pitching staff, but also his range to go get baseballs) and currently has a 1.000 fielding percentage for 2014. He has never been in the Gold Glove conversation while Matt Kemp has two (2009 and 2011). In 2008, 2009, and 2011, Kemp finished first in the league in double plays turned as a centerfielder, which shows good faith to his throwing strength and accuracy to nab some of the more daring runners that want to test his arm. Their range factors (assists and putouts per innings played) are pretty comparable: in 2013 at centerfield, Trout had a range factor of 2.65 per game and Kemp in 2011 (his MVP snub year) had a 2.54 in centerfield. It's hard to make a distinction here, because Kemp has also shown an ability to jump through the roof too: 

Look closely at the facial expressions of the fans - hilarious.

Edge: Push.

Offense:

Let's keep in mind we are looking at Kemp when healthy, so the last two years are iffy. That said, there are so many different components of offense that on which we can judge players; average and on base percentage, power numbers, batting order position, situational hitting, etc. So this one will be a little tricky. In terms of average, I think Trout wins this round. Kemp's career average is .293, but he's pretty inconsistent. In 2011, he hit an impressive .324 but he also has had seasons as low as .249. It's a box of chocolates with him. With Trout we have a smaller sample size but a little more stability across the board. He posted a .326 in his Rookie of the Year Campaign, .323 last year, and is at .304 in the very young 2014 campaign. Like I said, more consistent, but still relatively unproven when compared side-by-side with Kemp. Trout's OBP and slugging blow Kemp's out of the water (career .404 vs. .350 OBP) and (.546 vs. .495 slugging).  Trout led the league in walks in 2013 and rarely strikes out while Kemp is a little more of a free swinger. Trout also has the advantage in average total bases - Kemp compiled 353 in 2011, but that is the only time eclipsing 300 for his career, while Trout has gotten north of 300 twice. In terms of situational hitting, they are pretty similar, but I give the edge to Trout. For a guy that hits primarily leadoff, his 8 sac flies in 2013 is quite good. Kemp hit 7 sac flies in 2011 while hitting clean up most of the season. Trout also has an average of 95 RBI's to Kemp's 94 - another good testament to his situational hitting despite being at the top of the order. Kemp hit .333 with runners in scoring position in 2011, and Trout hit .324. 

Though the sample size for Trout is smaller, the more I look at it, the more I think Kemp's 2011 was just a career year. Don't get me wrong, it was one of the greatest seasons we've seen in the past 20 years or so, but he hasn't been able to replicate that caliber of a season. Maybe 2014 is the year he'll put the wheels back on. 

Edge: Trout

Base running:

Both are not total speed demons like Juan Pierre or Billy Hamilton, but they are both threats to steal. Last year, Trout swiped 33 bases and 46 (league-leading) the year prior. In 2011, Kemp stole 40 bases exactly (and was one home run short of a prestigious 40-40 season), but again has failed to replicate that number - he stole 35 in 2008 and 34 in 2009, both great, but not up to his career year. In terms of percentage, Trout also gets caught less, with a 90% conversion rate his rookie year and 82.5% last year, while Kemp's was 78% when he stole 40 in 2011 and only 55% in 2010. Both are threats, but Trout makes it happen.

Edge: Trout

Intangibles

Oh the intangibles. 

Marlins utilityman Ed Lucas poking fun at his skill set with great "intangibles."

Things like "upside" and "leadership" are hard to gauge, especially on the baseball field where the field of play is slower and you can't see as much direct influence between players. Both of them are absolutely stellar players to say the least, and to be honest, I'm probably not the guy to be judging intangibles. If you ask me though, I'd lean towards Trout. He plays hard, and you can tell he respects the game. Not to say that Matt Kemp doesn't, but I think something inside him just turned off when he was snubbed of the 2011 MVP. Trout has finished runner-up twice (though not snubbed) in the MVP race, and believe me, his time will come. I also think a lot of their mindset is groomed in where they play. The Dodgers are cocky and play the game like it. With all this "beast mode don't care" stuff, Kemp can rub people the wrong way. I love him, but the Dodger blue has undoubtedly affected his mindset. The Angels, under tremendous management of Mike Scioscia, wouldn't tolerate anything like that. Trout sponsors soft pretzels, for goodness sake: 

They are quite delicious.

Edge (despite me being an outsider only having played through high school): Trout.

Sorry, roomie. I think Kemp is a great player, even when he is healthy, but 2011 was just a career year. That's not how he is for his career. I think Trout is the better player.

Thanks for reading. This is, as all sports are, a debatable topic, and feel free to shoot me down in the comments or via Twitter.  

Vlad the Impaler

My good friend and racquetball partner (yeah I know that makes me sound 80 years old) texted me out of the blue the other day, which is odd because he wouldn't respond to a text message unless I was having a heart attack. He's a Cubs fan (poor guy) and a huge Darwin Barney supporter, but asked me my thoughts on Vladimir Geurrero and whether he is a Hall of Famer or not, and off the top of my head, I said no, not at least on the first ballot. 

Vlad with the Expos. He served 16 years in the MLB, starting with the Expos, then moving to the Angels, O's, and Rangers. 

But honestly, what was I thinking? After reviewing his stats, I think he is a shoo-in, but again, like I mentioned with Lee Smith in the last post, he's going to enter the ballot at arguably the most crowded time in baseball history. Retiring in 2011, he will be on the 2017 ballot. Other first timers in 2017 include Pudge, Jorge Posada, Man Ram (not likely given suspensions and antics), and Julio Lugo. Notable 2nd balloters include Ken Griffey (if by some act of God he isn't inducted the year prior) and Jim Edmonds. And as always, Bonds, Schilling, Mussina, McGwire, Sosa, Clemens, and Piazza will most likely be on the list given their past voting luck. To say the least, it will be crowded. Will Vlad be able to rise above the rest? I know some writers have made it clear that they will not vote for anyone in the steroid era, whether they were linked to it, were suspended for it, or were even mentioned in the same sentence as it. So a few guys already won't vote for him, and that might prevent Mariano from being a unanimous selection. 

Anyway, back to Vlad the Impaler (which is an awesome nickname, by the way). I think he does have the stats to get into the Hall. Across the Hall of Fame, I've noticed that stats aren't always good enough to get inducted. If a player has a career year and then is just above-average for the rest of his career, it will help the stock in some eyes but not enough (Captain Obvious to the rescue). Consistency is also a huge resume booster, and that is something Vlad certainly had. He was a .318 career hitter, which is quite impressive in itself, but across his 16 years in the league, he only hit below .300 three times: 1996 (9 games played, .185) 2009 (100, .295), and 2011 (145, .290). Even when he hit below .300, he was still right in the mix for a batting title. Although he never did win a title, he finished 3rd 4 times and finished 59th all time at .318. You might say 59th isn't that good; well let me reframe it for you: there are roughly 18,000 baseball players ever to get a major league at bat. To finish in the top 1000 is a feather in the cap, to take that a step above and finish top 100 is great too. In addition to that, his .318 would be in the top 5 of players who have played post 1950 (Mauer, Pujols, Cabrera, Puckett, Vlad), which shows how hard it has been to be that high on the list in recent years. Over 2,500 hits (most by a Dominican born player ever), 400 home runs, nearly 1,500 RBI’s, 477 doubles, and just over 9,000 plate appearances. He was also an 8 time Silver Slugger winner as well as an MVP winner in 2004 when he hit .337/.391/.598 with 39 home runs, 126 RBI’s,  as well as 124 runs and 366 total bases, both of which led the league. He was a total bases machine, racking up 4,506 in his career, good for 45^th all time, and he also led the American League in intentional walks 4 straight years, 2005-2008.

His hitting was stellar, which is why he earned his name of Vlad the Impaler, after the 15^th century Romanian ruler. He would swing at pitches from his nose to his toes and still had a respectable average. I think what is most impressive was his fielding ability. Though he never won a Gold Glove (he led the league in errors 8 times), he would have dominated the Golden Arm, had it existed. 10 times he was top 5 in right field double plays, top 5 in outfield assists 5 times (including leading the league in 2002 and 2004). Total, he compiled 126 assists, good for 26^th all time.

But his arm. His arm is something to tell your grandkids about. He could throw from the right field corner to third base on a frozen rope without hitting the ground. That’s not something you can teach to young outfielders, that’s just God given talent. 

He was fun to watch. He played the game hard. It was obvious that he just loved the game so much, and I think that is what the Hall of Fame is about; being role models for the young kids to play the game the right way. Granted he had zero plate discipline, but he rarely struck out (fewer than 1,000 in his career)! I think he is a legit Hall of Famer, but I am sticking to my guns that he won’t be first ballot. Maybe 2^nd or 3^rd because of the lack of personal hardware, bad defense (despite his great arm), and no rings. But who knows?

Thanks for reading.