At the beginning of the year, I picked Diamondbacks first basemen Paul Goldschmidt to win the MVP. Unfortunately, Goldy fell on a bit of bad luck recently, breaking his hand and being forced to spend the rest of the season on the DL. Goldschmidt was hitting an even .300, started for the NL All-Star team, and still is leading the majors in doubles despite being out of the lineup for the better part of a week. He would have been a compelling choice for most valuable player, but let's be honest, the award rarely goes to a player on a non-contender let alone a team that was the worst team in the league for the first half. The D'backs were in 5th in the NL West for every single day until June 28th and are now in 4th. Since his departure, Arizona is 3-6 (when I began writing), showing that he was a very valuable component to the success in the desert.
The defending MVP Andrew McCutchen is also suffering from injury (a friend described his injury to me as if you're tearing the meat off the rib when eating a full slab of baby-backs), and is almost back to last season's form, hitting .311 and on pace for more steals, home runs, and RBIs. With this injury, he'll have to have a historic run when he comes back to get into the conversation. His numbers are good, but not MVP worthy as they sit.
Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki started hot, stayed hot, and is still hot. As the NL starting shortstop for the All-Star Game, Tulo has been turning heads this season, leading the MLB in average, on-base, slugging, and OPS, which is becoming the most accurate representation of a hitter's productivity. But he has the Goldschmidt syndrome (or does Goldy have the Tulo syndrome?) where he plays for the worst team. Tulo's Rockies are in last place in the NL West and entering play yesterday, have the worst record in the majors and are 2-8 in their last 10 games. The Rockies aren't good because of Tulo, so I can't help but question his value. Not questioning his talent and production this year, but I am questioning his value. Now that he needs hip surgery and is out for the remainder of the year, we'll see if anyone can overcome his average and other offensive numbers. Between his team's performance and missing the final 40-45 games of the year, I don't think he'll be this year's winner.
So here are our two finalists (at least for me): Giancarlo Stanton and Clayton Kershaw. If this were last year then I would say Stanton had a case of the Tulos or Goldys but the Marlins are 2 games below .500 and a game back of the Braves entering play yesterday. They are not completely out of the hunt but they aren't a playoff lock, either (can you imagine if Fernandez were still pitching?). However, a major part of the team's success is because of Stanton. Stanton is currently tied for first in the majors with 31 home runs (alone at the top in the NL by 4; the Cubs' Anthony Rizzo is 2nd with 27) and is 7th overall in RBIs, but again first in the NL with 82 (Dodgers' Adrian Gonzalez is 2nd with 80). With a .288 average, Stanton had turned a corner in terms of hitting for contact. Stanton is a career .270 hitter, and he only hit .249 last year (though he hit .290 in 2012). Combine that with his bombs for home runs (https://twitter.com/mlbgifs/status/498988723933945856) and you have a dynamic player who is offensive threat no matter what: with runners in scoring position and 2 outs, he is batting .297. When the Marlins are trailing, he is batting .306. He's also batting .288 with 9 home runs against divisional opponents (when it matters). Having Jose out for the year was a debilitating blow - can you imagine if Stanton were out too?
Now it has already been proven that Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw is not a human and he may in fact not even be from this galaxy. He is that good. As I write this, he is 14-2 with a 1.78 ERA, a .85 WHIP, 5 complete games, 2 shutouts (including a no-hitter), a 8.58 strikeout to walk ratio and 10.8 strikeouts per 9 (stats in bold lead the NL). He leads the NL (and the MLB in a few) in almost every major stat except for strikeouts, but that's not his type of pitching. He's a shoo-in for the Cy Young Award, but what about MVP?
We haven't seen a pitcher win an MVP award since Justin Verlander in 2011, when he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, 4 complete games (2 shutouts), 250 K's, and a .920 WHIP. Kershaw has him beaten in nearly every stat except for strikeouts, but again, that's not Kershaw's game.
Let's look at some splits to show how dominant he is: he gets better and better as the game goes on. In innings 1-3, Kershaw has a 2.59 ERA; 4-6 1.36; and 7-9 an ERA of .98. As the game goes on, he only gets better and better. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen is an electric closer, but unlike Kershaw, he's only human. He's pitched in 52 games this year, which is a lot for a reliever (9 behind the MLB leader). Regardless of Jansen's efficiency, ERA, saves, whatever, the ability for Kershaw to be that dominant late in games is so helpful to the Dodgers that it will give the bullpen a rest and other starters a leg to stand on.
Kershaw is also 7-1 (2.09 ERA) against opponents in the NL West, a huge advantage for the Dodgers on strengthening their divisional lead. In addition, he has a 1.64 ERA on 4 days rest - again, incredibly valuable for the pitching staff and come playoff time.
If I were making the choice, I would pick Kershaw. He has been that good, and that valuable to his team - and the league in terms of bringing PR to showcase his talent.
Thanks for reading.
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