This may be a lot to read, but I loved writing this. What follows are my predictions for the 2014 award winners. I've included a "safe bet" option, someone who has either won the award before or is consistently in the top five finalists voting; a bold prediction - a blossoming player who has a chance to make it if they really step up; and my actual guess. The reason I say 'guess' rather than prediction or other type of rhetoric like that is because I don't know who will win the awards - it is exactly what I say it is: merely a guess. But I'll try to explain my thoughts at least. Here we go!
AL MVP:
AL MVP:
Safe bet: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
Bold prediction: Manny Machado, O's
My guess: Mike Trout, Angels
Cabrera is the two-time defending champ, and believe it or not, had a better year than his triple crown campaign in 2012: .348/.442/.636/1.078 with 44 home runs (equivalent to 2012) and 137 RBIs (2 fewer than 2012). He won the award by an overwhelming margin, receiving 23 first-place shares.
I think he'll continue to blow fans and writers out of the water, but a lot of people are just plain sick of Cabrera winning the award and think it should have gone to Trout the last two years (he's been runner up twice). With all this emphasis on WAR, defense, and speed, a lot of voters are in Trout's camp more than they are Cabrera's. Last year, there is not a doubt in my mind that Cabrera is the deserving winner, but this year I think folks will want to spread the love. If Trout comes anywhere near his .323/.432/.557 year that he posted in 2013, expect the race to be a lot closer.
Cabrera is the two-time defending champ, and believe it or not, had a better year than his triple crown campaign in 2012: .348/.442/.636/1.078 with 44 home runs (equivalent to 2012) and 137 RBIs (2 fewer than 2012). He won the award by an overwhelming margin, receiving 23 first-place shares.
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| Cabrera accepting his 2013 MVP Award in New York. |
NL MVP:
Safe bet: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates
Bold prediction: Freddie Freeman, Braves
My guess: Paul Goldschmidt, D-backs
The D-backs had a huge offseason, mainly through the acquisition of Mark Trumbo, an incredibly powerful bat that will protect Goldy. Goldy had the better season, there is no doubt there, but Cutch was more valuable. He made the players around him better and took a truthfully poor hitting team and collected 94 wins. The Pirates scored 634 runs this season while the Diamondbacks scored 685, but the Pirates had 13 more wins than the Diamondbacks. Sure, pitching and defense was great for them, but I also want to credit Cutch for capitalizing. This year, however, with the addition of Trumbo as protection, Goldy's 99 walks will decrease and his slugging will likely go up (if that's even possible from his .552 last year). Freddie Freeman is my outside shot; last year he hit .319/.396/.501, but he did strikeout 121 times. As he matures into his first base position, I think he could make a run at the proverbial crown. And no, I don't think Puig will win.
AL Cy Young:
Safe bet: Yu Darvish, Rangers
Bold prediction: Chris Sale, White Sox
My guess: David Price, Rays
Darvish is a strikeout machine. That's what will propel him to the Cy Young. He will also need better offensive support than last year: 3 of his last 7 starts resulted in losses even though he gave up 3 runs or less - quality losses, but still losses which could hurt his chances. King Felix won it when only going 13-12, so it's not impossible to win with a bad W-L, but it's hard. That's why Chris Sale is my bold prediction. His stuff is absolutely nasty, but he consistently has a losing record because of the offense around him. Last year he went 11-14, but still had a 3.07 ERA and struck out 226 batters, 3rd in the AL, 4th in MLB (wow). David Price is entering a contract year, and with Alex Cobb and Chris Archer stepping up big time, I think he'll shine. Last year he had some injury issues - but when he returned from the DL, he went 9-4 with a 2.53 ERA. Had he been around the whole season, he may have rivaled Scherzer for the title. That's why I think Price will win again.
Darvish is a strikeout machine. That's what will propel him to the Cy Young. He will also need better offensive support than last year: 3 of his last 7 starts resulted in losses even though he gave up 3 runs or less - quality losses, but still losses which could hurt his chances. King Felix won it when only going 13-12, so it's not impossible to win with a bad W-L, but it's hard. That's why Chris Sale is my bold prediction. His stuff is absolutely nasty, but he consistently has a losing record because of the offense around him. Last year he went 11-14, but still had a 3.07 ERA and struck out 226 batters, 3rd in the AL, 4th in MLB (wow). David Price is entering a contract year, and with Alex Cobb and Chris Archer stepping up big time, I think he'll shine. Last year he had some injury issues - but when he returned from the DL, he went 9-4 with a 2.53 ERA. Had he been around the whole season, he may have rivaled Scherzer for the title. That's why I think Price will win again.
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| If Price can continue what he did after the All-Star Break, expect to see this scene again in 2014. |
NL Cy Young:
Safe bet: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Bold prediction: Jose Fernandez, Marlins
My guess: Kershaw
Is there anything new to say about Kershaw? Allow me: 16-9, 1.83 ERA, 232 K's, and a .915 WHIP. Are you kidding me? Fernandez was an awesome rookie for the Marlins last year, but whatever he does won't touch Kershaw. Best pitcher in the game right now.
Is there anything new to say about Kershaw? Allow me: 16-9, 1.83 ERA, 232 K's, and a .915 WHIP. Are you kidding me? Fernandez was an awesome rookie for the Marlins last year, but whatever he does won't touch Kershaw. Best pitcher in the game right now.
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| Kershaw shakes Sandy Koufax's hand at 2012 Spring Training. With three Cy Youngs and an MVP, Koufax is a Dodgers legend. With two Cy Youngs (two in the last three years, and no slowing down), he's right behind him. |
AL Manager of the Year:
Safe bet: John Farrell, Red Sox
Bold prediction: Ned Yost, Royals
My guess: Terry Francona, Indians
The defending champs are in prime position to repeat, making Farrell a safe choice. My bold prediction, Ned Yost, loaded up on new talent (Omar Infante, Jason Vargas) and the big sticks of Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon will continue to prosper. The only problem is: the AL Central is tough. Their competition of the Tigers and Indians will be tough to beat, and the Royals will probably need 90 wins for Yost to get the nod. In the same division, if Terry Francona doesn't win, I will be shocked. He won 92 games last year with nearly the exact same team that Manny Acta took to 68-94. He has (again) nearly the exact same team this year, minus Ubaldo, and adding David Murphy and Yan Gomes to the everyday catching position. I think they are capable of 95 wins with Francona at the helm, proving he should win again.
The defending champs are in prime position to repeat, making Farrell a safe choice. My bold prediction, Ned Yost, loaded up on new talent (Omar Infante, Jason Vargas) and the big sticks of Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon will continue to prosper. The only problem is: the AL Central is tough. Their competition of the Tigers and Indians will be tough to beat, and the Royals will probably need 90 wins for Yost to get the nod. In the same division, if Terry Francona doesn't win, I will be shocked. He won 92 games last year with nearly the exact same team that Manny Acta took to 68-94. He has (again) nearly the exact same team this year, minus Ubaldo, and adding David Murphy and Yan Gomes to the everyday catching position. I think they are capable of 95 wins with Francona at the helm, proving he should win again.
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| Francona also chews the most tobacco of any manager - in the world. |
NL Manager of the Year:
Safe bet: Mike Matheny, Cardinals
Bold prediction: Rick Renteria, Cubs
My guess: Ryne Sandberg, Phillies
Mike Matheny has the best team in the league at his fingertips, so if he doesn't win at least 95 games, it will be a failure. That's why I'm picking Ryno - he has a talented team, though very old. Sandberg went 20-22 is his brief introduction with the Phillies; not great by any means but it is respectable! This year, though they are indeed the dinosaurs of the MLB, they have a ton of talent. After all, they are the core group from the 2008 World Series team (Jimmy Rollins, Chooch, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels), and haven't changed that much (lost Shane Victorino, Pat Burrell). In the NL, the lowest managerial winning percentage was Joe Girardi's 2006 Marlins, when he led them to a 78-84 season. By my predictions, the Phillies will win 75 games. Not probable that Ryno will win, but it is possible. It has been done.
Mike Matheny has the best team in the league at his fingertips, so if he doesn't win at least 95 games, it will be a failure. That's why I'm picking Ryno - he has a talented team, though very old. Sandberg went 20-22 is his brief introduction with the Phillies; not great by any means but it is respectable! This year, though they are indeed the dinosaurs of the MLB, they have a ton of talent. After all, they are the core group from the 2008 World Series team (Jimmy Rollins, Chooch, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels), and haven't changed that much (lost Shane Victorino, Pat Burrell). In the NL, the lowest managerial winning percentage was Joe Girardi's 2006 Marlins, when he led them to a 78-84 season. By my predictions, the Phillies will win 75 games. Not probable that Ryno will win, but it is possible. It has been done.
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| Under a new contract, Sandberg will have a talented team to work with. |
AL Rookie of the Year: Taijuan Walker, Mariners
NL Rookie of the Year: Oscar Taveras, Cardinals
Truth be told, I know little about the ROY candidates. I think later in the year I will have a better idea of predictions. I know I'll be spot on by November of 2014. Anyway, for this year, my two picks are some of the more talked about prospects in recent years. Taijuan Walker had a solid debut, going 1-0 in three games and allowing only six runs. Granted, two of his starts were against the Astros, but the important thing is, he has the stuff. He's a strikeout pitcher, so McClendon will have to watch his pitch count to avoid a Matt Harvey situation, decreasing his sample size for the award, but Fernandez did it last year: he was shut down in September and still managed to take the award over Puig. With former Cy Young winner King Felix manning the helm and top five finisher Hisashi Iwakuma, Walker will have excellent leadership to learn from.
I'm excited to see Taveras. He really has nothing to lose considering he is on the best team in the league. As an outfielder, Jon Jay is a ready and capable reserve who hit .293 last year, so if Taveras for some reason has a shaky start, things will be fine in no time. This will allow him to play aggressive and tenacious baseball, which is oftentimes mistake free baseball. He won't be a Mike Trout, but he will be hitting .285-.300.
Thanks for reading. Feel free to go to battle with me on this - my predicting the future has been a little off lately.
Truth be told, I know little about the ROY candidates. I think later in the year I will have a better idea of predictions. I know I'll be spot on by November of 2014. Anyway, for this year, my two picks are some of the more talked about prospects in recent years. Taijuan Walker had a solid debut, going 1-0 in three games and allowing only six runs. Granted, two of his starts were against the Astros, but the important thing is, he has the stuff. He's a strikeout pitcher, so McClendon will have to watch his pitch count to avoid a Matt Harvey situation, decreasing his sample size for the award, but Fernandez did it last year: he was shut down in September and still managed to take the award over Puig. With former Cy Young winner King Felix manning the helm and top five finisher Hisashi Iwakuma, Walker will have excellent leadership to learn from.
I'm excited to see Taveras. He really has nothing to lose considering he is on the best team in the league. As an outfielder, Jon Jay is a ready and capable reserve who hit .293 last year, so if Taveras for some reason has a shaky start, things will be fine in no time. This will allow him to play aggressive and tenacious baseball, which is oftentimes mistake free baseball. He won't be a Mike Trout, but he will be hitting .285-.300.
Thanks for reading. Feel free to go to battle with me on this - my predicting the future has been a little off lately.
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