Friday, October 10, 2014

Who Should Hire Ron Gardenhire?

Now that you are all down laughing at my witty play-on-words of a title, let's get down to business about a very important offseason subject: managers.

So far already, the season isn't even technically over and we've seen multiple managers lose their job. Rangers' manager Ron Washington resigned mid-way through September as his Rangers were limping to the finish line (they suffered the most injuries and most losses in the American League), but it wasn't because of his managerial resume, it was because of his personal life. Washington, who has experienced issues with cocaine in the past, held a press conference about a month ago to bring his marital infidelity out in the open. Read more here from Calvin Watkins with ESPN Dallas. Though Washington has shown good character after his mistakes have become public (both times), I have been critical of his ability to win the "big game" and etch his name into history as one of the great managers. In 2010, he took Texas to the World Series against Bruce Bochy's Giants when Buster Posey became a household name. In 2011, he was right back there with the same team and if Nelson Cruz plays that fly ball cleanly, those Rangers could have been a dynasty. Instead, the Cardinals fought and fought to win in 7, Freese ripped his jersey,
Freese's torn jersey from the 2011 World Series is one of my favorite pieces displayed at the Museum in Cooperstown - even if it is Cardinals' gear.
and Adrian Beltre is the only one from that team still producing for that team (Andrus is too overrated to be considered if you ask me). Mitch Moreland sat out this year with an injury, Ian Kinsler, CJ Wilson, and Josh Hamilton are at home watching Nelson Cruz in the ALCS, Mike Napoli is drowning in his beard but boasting his 2013 World Series ring with Koji Uehara. Looking back, the 2011 Rangers were stacked, but a lot of their players hit their stride after 2011. All I hope is that Neftali Feliz can recover to the same form his Rookie of the Year caliber in 2010 because I don't recall having more fun watching a pitcher than this guy. Talk about a live arm.


Anyway, sorry for the history lesson, but Washington not only lost 2 World Series, but he also lost the two All-Star Games he managed. All-Star Games are oftentimes not in a manager's hands considering how often pitching overpowers hitting (except for when Justin Verlander laid an absolute egg in the first inning in 2012), so it's not all on Washington, but in 2012, he had three of his starters in the lineup and could only scrape 6 hits in 9 innings. 
Washington managed the Rangers from 2007-2014, going 664-611, winning two pennants along the way.

While Washington has the most prolific story, Minnesota legend Ron Gardenhire was fired by the Twins not even a week after the season. This is a bad move by Twins' management if you ask me. Considering the Twins' pitching staff had the worst ERA in the AL, a 70-92 record (a half game behind the reigning World Series champs) is not bad at all. As for offense, the Twins were aggressively average (7th in AL in team average, total bases, steals, and 11th in home runs), but got timely hitting from quiet heroes like Brian Dozier and Kurt Suzuki. Joe Mauer had a very down year, only hitting .277 with 4 home runs in 120 games. The Joe Mauer Power Hour was never a popular show in Minnesota (that's a fun way of saying he's not a home run hitter), but his .277 is 42 points lower than his career average and nearly a hundred points lower than his career high .365 in 2009. Joe Mauer's talent isn't gone, not by a long shot, but when your best player isn't producing, that doesn't mean fire the manager. That means buy Mauer some protection that isn't strikeout machine and now current Royal Josh Willingham. Keep in mind - when Mauer won his three batting titles and his MVP he had fellow slugger and 2014 NL batting champ Justin Morneau right behind him. And no, Brian Dozier can not hit clean up. 

Gardenhire has managed the Twins since 2002, winning 6 division titles and MOY in 2010. He has a 1068-1039 record.
Long story short, 70-92 isn't a great season, but the Twins aren't a great team and they never have been even though Gardenhire won the division 6 out his 13 years as Twins skipper. In 2006, when they went 96-66, the Twins had a starting nine of Mauer, Morneau, Luis Castillo, Jason Bartlett, Nick Punto, Lew Ford, Torii Hunter, Michael Cuddyer, and Rondell White. Not what you would expect from a division winning team (even though Joe Nathan went 7-0 with a 1.58 ERA), and as you would probably expect from this starting 9, they got swept in the ALDS by the A's (Mauer hit .187 in the series). 
Mauer is the best AL catcher since Pudge Rodriguez - 3 batting titles and an MVP deserves a Hair and Shoulders shampoo commercial.

Here's a crazy thought: the Twins are only as good as Joe Mauer. And just because he didn't win a batting title doesn't mean you should fire Ronny. He has one Manager of the Year award and 5 runner-ups, why would you take away the one who has been squeezing the glue that's been holding this team together for the last 9 years (Joe Mauer was the glue - was that a horrible metaphor? Don't answer that). And with #1 prospect Byron Buxton/The Minnesota Messiah (Minnessiah?) just a few years away, you don't want a newbie manager leading a newbie centerfielder.

So who should hire him?

The D'backs fired Kirk Gibson and hired hitting coach AJ Hinch in the same week, which is another head scratching hire. The Astros fired Bo Porter (wrongfully, again - 19 win increase from 2013) and haven't hired anyone yet. 

Well, considering I went into such detail about Ron Washington and the Rangers, I think you know where I'm going with this. 

A) They're both named Ron.
B) They both rely heavily on their star players to get the job done, and Texas (when healthy) has no shortage of that. Remember when I said that the Twins are only as good as Mauer? The same goes for the Rangers, but I think their X-Factor is their outfield. On paper, an outfield of Shin Soo Choo, Alex Rios, and Leonys Martin isn't bad, but when Choo plays on one ankle most of the year and Alex Rios disappears for the 2nd half (.302 average as of July 18, .280 to end the season), leaving it to Michael Choice does not bode well. 

But look at next year. Once everyone heals up, here's what their lineup will be.
1) Andrus, SS
2) Choo, LF*
3) Beltre, 3B (ageless - he'll hit .350 when he's 40)
4) Fielder, 1B*
5) Moreland, DH*
6) Rios, RF
7) Odor, 2B (he hit .269 as a 20-year old, with a decent manager and lineup behind him, he could be a serious threat)
8) Martin, CF
9) whoever catches, whether it be Arencibia or Chirinos

For a manager who leans heavily on his star players, Gardenhire would have plenty of star power. Oh, wait their rotation - 
1) Darvish* (hopefully he won't need Tommy John after the Rangers shut him down in August with elbow inflammation)
2) Holland*
3) Ogando*
4) Harrison *
5) Lewis 

*indicates season ending injury in 2014

The Rangers had no one to work with in 2014, so it's no surprise they didn't show up. But give them their rotation and a manager, and holy cow, look out AL West. For a division that sent two teams to the playoffs (and had a third in contention to the very last day), there isn't a lot of room at the top, but if the Rangers play and are managed to their full potential - look out.

Thanks for reading. 

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