To piggyback my two previous posts about which team will be the most active, I will follow it up with the individual top free agents. Yesterday, MLB Trade Rumors (great site) posted the top 50 free agents and their predictions for where they will go. I think they are much more credible than I am given how wrong I always am about nearly everything (My World Series prediction, my preseason predictions, my All-Star Starters, my award winning predictions, etc), BUT that doesn't mean I have a say too. I'll list the player, the MLB Trade Rumor prediction, and then my own prediction for the top 10. If I were to do top 50 I would be here until my beard grows.
1. Max Scherzer; their prediction: Yankees, mine: Braves
If you've read my previous post about the Braves offseason activity, then you already know this prediction. Scherzer is coming off of back to back career years, including a Cy Young in 2013 and tied for the AL lead in wins in 2014. He turned down the Tigers offer of 6yr/$144 million before the season started holding out not for more money but for a longer deal. At age 30 (31 in July), if Scherzer signs a deal longer than 6 years it will mean whoever signs him will have him for the rest of his career unless he goes fine wine on us and improves after the age of 40. Atlanta was weak for pitching last year. Between Teheran, Harang, Santana, Minor, and Wood, the Braves did okay in 2014. But that's the problem, they were just okay. I don't think a team that has 14 straight divisional titles recently will settle for okay. Now the Braves aren't known for signing big name players; other than the Upton brothers in the outfield, almost everyone on their roster has come from the farm system, not free agency signing. But with the new stadium coming in 2017 and a subpar 2014, I think the Braves are in for a big name if they want to compete with the Nationals rotation in the East. Scherzer would fit well in Atlanta. Being a strikeout pitcher, he will throw lots of pitches early in the game and then rely on the bullpen to close out the game. If he wants a good bullpen, then Atlanta is the place to go. With Johnny Venters coming back from Tommy John and Craig Kimbrel taking Mo's place as the best closer in the game, then he won't need to put pressure on himself to throw 8 innings every start. While Atlanta is not known for spending, I think they are due for a splurge. This is where their money should go. As badly as the Tigers would like him back, I think they'll focus their efforts on Victor Martinez and pray that Scherzer doesn't sign with an AL Central team.
2. Jon Lester; their prediction: Cubs; mine: Red Sox
I can totally see the Cubs picking up Lester with his connection to Theo Epstein, but Lester absolutely loves Boston. It was visibly obvious in his interviews and press conferences after being traded that he was bummed about leaving Boston for Oakland. He didn't blame Boston for the trade but at the same time he left the door open to returning. His family did put their house up for sale, but that isn't to say that a multimillionaire can't buy another one fairly easily. The Red Sox brought Lester two World Series championships, something that the Cubs won't get him until at least 2018 when he's 34. He's been their number one for the last number of years and since the Sox also traded away John Lackey, Felix Doubront, and Jake Peavy, do you really think they'll be okay with Rubby De la Rosa as their number 3 starter behind Buchholz and Joe Kelly? Not at all. Not only would Boston be a homecoming for Lester but he would also bring their sinking rotation afloat again. The Sox have holes to fill if they want to be competitive in 2015, and if Lester doesn't come home, then starting pitching could be their biggest.
3. James Shields; their prediction: Red Sox; mine: Cubs
This is groundbreaking news: James Shields is not as good as everyone thinks he is. Although he has earned the nickname Big Game James and I almost threw a perfect game with him in The Show (the video game), day-to-day Shields is far overrated. His 3.72 career ERA and 1.220 career WHIP are middle of the road as far as I'm concerned, and he was number one in Kansas City that relied not on starting pitching, but relief, to get them the 2014 pennant. His best years and only All-Star appearance came when he was in Tampa Bay with Joe Maddon as his manager.
And click, you get it. Maddon will be the newest Cubs manager in 2015 and this new school free thinking template is great, but how will it translate to a group of young Cubans? We have no idea, but if Maddon has Shields, a leader off the field, on his side in the clubhouse, then it could unite a bunch of young sparkplugs into a very serious force for 2015. Like I said, the Cubs won't win a World Series in 2015, but 2018, 2019? Very possible. I think Shields could lead the way as their number one with his original manager in the Windy City. Like Lester going home to Boston, Shields would be going home (theoretically) to his mentor in Joe Maddon.
4. Hanley Ramirez; their prediction; Yankees; mine: Mariners
Ramirez is a character. He burned his bridge with the Marlins by not hustling, giving the manager attitude, and a variety of other things. Then he went to LA where that attitude was shadowed by Yasiel Puig's even bigger attitude and he kind of faded away just to play baseball. Trade Rumors has Hanley to be the Yankees next starting shortstop, which would make sense because he could have crazy home run power in Yankee Stadiym but I don't think he would mesh well with manager Joe Girardi. The Yankees make their players cut their hair and beards and don't allow jewelry or anything else loud to detract from the pinstripes.
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| Basically the opposite of this. |
The Yankees fans and ownership would not fly with this type of outlandishness, nor would they stand for his horrible defense - last year his fielding percentage was .961. At age 30, I doubt we'll see Hanley hit .342 again like he did in 2009 with the Marlins, but he is still a career .300 hitter with good shortstop power. Who does that sound like? Robinson Cano. The Mariners have shown that they are willing to spend to win, signing Cano last season as well as Corey Hart and Fernando Rodney. However, the M's shortstop last year, Brad Miller, only hit .221. They also have an aging Willie Bloomquist and a young Chris Taylor, but why not pair your star second basemen with a fellow countrymen in Hanley Ramirez? They'll be flashy bearded stars together rather than playing under the restrictions of the Steinbrenners at Yankee Stadium. The Mariners were one win away from the postseason, and I bet a shortstop who can hit .300 will help that. The Dodgers will be fine, Dee Gordon can play short or if he stays at second, Justin Turner will get his chance to start at short. He's shown that he can really play well.
5. Pablo Sandoval; their prediction: Giants; mine: Giants
Sandoval and Posey are becoming postseason staples for what is now a Giants dynasty. Winning 3 of the last 5 World Series, Sandoval has had average regular season but absolutely lit fire in the postseason. This year he set a franchise record for postseason hits with 26 and in 2012 he hit 3 homers in game 1 of the World Series. He has a career .344 postseason batting average and a .426 World Series average. That's ridiculous considering he hit .268, .283, and .279 in their three championship years. If he went anywhere else, the Panda-ness would be lost.
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| Pandamonium: Giants fans follow Sandoval with their Kung Fu Panda masks. |
6. Victor Martinez; their prediction: White Sox; mine: Tigers
There's no way the Tigers will let both Scherzer and Martinez walk away. One will, but not both. The White Sox have made it abundantly clear that they will pursue VMart under any circumstance and cost, and the Tigers should follow suit because A) he hits behind the best hitter in the game whereas he'll follow Connor Gillaspie in Chicago, B) he has great protection in JD Martinez whereas Jose Abreu would follow him in Chicago, and C) the Tigers are so much closer to a ring than the Sox are. Sorry Sox fans, that is just a fact. After an MVP caliber season of .335/.409 (led AL)/.565 and 32 home runs and 103 RBIs, the Tigers better have ideas to snag every slugger on the market if they let Victor go. The Tigers did extend Martinez a qualifying offer on Friday, so we'll wait and see if he accepts it. At age 35 (turning 36 in December), age is certainly an issue considering he can only DH and barely function at first when he plays in NL parks. Sure he'll fit great, but I think the Tigers are just too competitive and Dombrowski is too smart to let this talent walk, even if he doesn't get the 4 year deal he wants.
7. Melky Cabrera; their prediction: Blue Jays; mine: Blue Jays
I agree with trade rumors on this one. The Jays were everyone's favorite surprise in 2014 until 1B/DH slugger Edwin Incarnation broke his hand and then his replacement Adam Lind suffered similar fates with back injuries throughout the year. The Blue Jays were as good as their big names, and when Incarnation went down, Cabrera and Bautista carried the team. When Cabrera too went down late in the year, Bautista was left to his own accord to carry the team, which resulted in a 2nd half slowdown, when they went 34-32 after a 38-24 start. With a lineup of Reyes, Cabrera, Encarnacion, and Bautista, the Blue Jays could do some serious damage as long as they are healthy. Losing Cabrera makes them simply a vicious double play machine waiting to happen. Like the Tigers with Martinez, the Jays would be foolish to let Cabrera go elsewhere.
8. Russell Martin; their prediction: Cubs; mine: White Sox or Pirates
Russell Martin is a box of chocolates. He's a career .259 hitter but he's had 3 All-Star appearances, and has had years of .293 and .290 but also years of .226 and .211. What's consistent is his great defense. I mentioned in an earlier post that I think the Red Sox will pick up Soto, who is an extreme case of all defense and no offense. It would make sense for Martin to go to the Sox as well, but I don't see that happening in the budget if they sign Lester for a long deal. The White Sox have a good starting staff with Chris Sale (everyone knows Chris Sale and all hitters know Chris Sale's slider) and Jose Quintana, but after that, it gets weak. I think if they were to have a veteran, Gold Glove winning catcher who has been on playoff teams, he would act as a positive leader for the young pitchers and create a better defensive experience on the South Side. He's already done that with the Pirates, taking youngsters like Gerrit Cole and Jeff Locke to create great starters. On a larger level, the Pirates starting staff had a 3.42 ERA and the entire pitching staff had a 3.49 ERA, good for 5th in the NL. I think he'll either stay in Pittsburgh and continue building on the McCutchen momentum, or to Chicago where he can start a new project with another raw pitching staff.
9. Nelson Cruz; their prediction: Orioles; mine: Angels
The reigning MLB home run king will be a highly sought after product - in the AL. Cruz has proven that fielding is not his strong suit (just ask the 2011 World Series) so he'll be much more attractive to AL teams. After such a great season, Cruz will be looking for a lucrative deal and I think the Angels will be the team to do it. They poached Pujols from the Cardinals in 2011, Hamilton from the Rangers in 2012, and Freese from the Cardinals in 2013. They have a systematic way of pulling stars from their previous teams, and I think they were a DH away from a deep playoff run. CJ Cron, the acting Angels DH, went 1-9 with 4 strikeouts in the ALDS sweep, after hitting .256 in the regular season. Cruz, however, hit .500 with 2 home runs in the ALDS and .250 with 2 RBIs in the ALCS sweep. If the Angels were to sign Cruz, their lineup would read: Kendrick, Trout, Pujols, Cruz, Hamilton, Freese, Calhoun, Aybar, Ianetta - are you kidding me? That's terror top to bottom for any pitcher. And Hank Conger (PandaCrusher35 on Instagram) off the bench. Wow.
10. Yasmany Tomas; their prediction: Phillies; mine: Phillies or Yankees
Tomas is another one of these Cuban beasts who is 8 feet tall and 350 pounds of muscle who can run a 6.2 60-yard dash and a 3.5 to first. That's obviously hyperbole but the Cubans are absolutely crazy athletes, and Tomas, the most recent defector-turned-free-agent is no different. Think Cespedes arm, Iglesias glove, Abreu bat, Puig recklessness and you have Yasmany Tomas, 23-year old outfielder. The Cubans have proved that they are basically bust proof; it is incredibly rare if a Cuban comes to play in America and does not pan out. Now that said, where Tomas will land is a brain teaser. Small markets have made splashes in signing the imports, like Abreu in Chicago and Cespedes in Oakland, but then there have also been the monsters signing foreigners like Puig and the Dodgers, Rusney Castillo and the Red Sox, so don't count anyone out. That's why the Phillies make sense. Their outfield last year was Domonic Brown (.235), Ben Revere (.306), and Marlon Byrd (.264), and even though Brown and Revere are arbitration eligible, I can't imagine the Phillies only holding onto Byrd and hoping Tomas will do the job. They already signed Grady Sizemore for an extension, but staying healthy will be a different story line. That's why I think the Yankees make sense. They signed an aging Carlos Beltran in 2013 and he spent most of 2014 on the DL. At age 37 (38 next April), Beltran is near the end of his string and won't be playing much right field. The same goes for Ichiro, who, at age 40 still could play good right field, but Tomas, who will be 24 next season, could learn a lot from Ichiro and take over his right field spot a few years down the road. After all, the Yankees bought Tanaka for $200 million last December. It could happen again.
Thank you for reading this marathon of a post. If you have other ideas or input about the top free agents, feel free to comment below. I'd gladly look into it. I hope you all had a great Halloween!
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