Maybe not the best week; Opening Day and the World Series are just as good, but for me, I can't get enough of the All Star Game. It's the one week we put divisional differences aside and root just for the league to win. For example, last year, Jason Kipnis came up to bat in the top of the 8th at Citi Field with two outs and I was cheering him on - what Tigers fan cheers on the Indians other than the All Star Game (Sorry Indians fans, I deeply down do love you). But this post is not about the All Star Game, it is about what comes after, both shortly down the road and miles down the highway so far that we can only hypothesize. Two questions: A) Where will David Price finish this season? and 2) Will he reach 3,000 strikeouts in his career?
Let's look at this first one. Last week, Rays beat writer and Tampa Bay Times journalist Marc Topkin tweeted during the Rays Sunday night game vs. the Tigers saying there were a number of team scouts in attendance to see David Price: Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Angels, Mariners, and Brewers. All of these teams are in the hunt for a playoff spot; only the Dodgers and Brewers sit in first place right now. I'm guessing that the Dodgers aren't serious contenders given their current rotation and a depleted farm system, and yesterday LA Times reporter Dylan Hernandez wrote that the Dodgers wouldn't trade the farm for a top pitcher. If I had Clayton Kershaw and Zack Grienke, I think I would be content too. The top two contenders in my mind are the Blue Jays or Mariners. The Mariners have stepped onto the stage as big spenders willing to wade through big contracts (Robinson Cano) to bring championships to Seattle. Jack Z is a great general manager and could be making a move for Price. Right now, the M's rotation reads: Hernandez, Iwakuma, rookie Roenis Elias, Chris Young, and Brandon Maurer. Great at the top, but if the M's want to not only compete but surpass the A's and Angels in the West, they'll need another arm. The Blue Jays are in the same boat; Mark Buehrle has slowed down considerably and right now in the East, 39-year old RA Dickey, Drew Hutchison, JA Happ, and Marcus Stroman won't be able to hold on against the Orioles hot bats. Those are my two guesses, the latter being highly compelling considering one of the American League's premier pitchers (Price leads the AL with 164 K's) will be shipped off within the same division. The Rays, sitting at 44-53, are not quite out of the running, but not quite in it either. If they are willing to deal Price to the Jays, they will have to face him 2-3 times for the rest of the season (Jays and Rays have 9 games remaining against each other).
Price is also arbitration eligible after this season, making it likely that regardless of where he goes it will be for a World Series run. Anything after that he will be seeking a lengthy and pricy (wordplay) contract for likely the rest of his pitching days. If Max Scherzer turned down 6/$144 million, Price, who is even better, could be getting 8/$200 million or somewhere in that neighborhood. The Rays probably won't be able to afford that without completely selling out their farm team. Price is making $14 million this year - he'll want, and deserves, much more. As for where he will land after this season, I have no idea. With that much of a contract, there are very few that have those deep of pockets.
Regardless of where he ends up, David Price is one of the best pitchers in the AL at striking out opposing hitters. Heading into the All Star Break this year, Price is first in the AL with 164 K's and is 3rd in the AL (6th in MLB) with 10.2 Ks/9. Although his record doesn't show it, he's told reporters that he is pitching the best of his career, so the scary thing is he'll only get better with confidence - here's my question?
Will David Price get to 3,000 career strikeouts?
No.
Price is a former Cy Young Winner and likely will win another, and honestly, I think down the road he will be a Hall of Famer. But he won't get 3,000 strikeouts.
First things first: only 16 pitchers have ever made it to 3,000 K's, and all of them are Hall of Famers (except for Schilling, Smoltz, and Pedro Martinez, and they all will be eventually). 3KK is hailed as the golden plateau for strikeout pitchers. As a rule of thumb, if you make it there, you'll make it to Cooperstown.
As I'm writing this, Price has 1,040 career punchouts at age 28 (turning 29 just before September). In the past, Price has maxed out at 218 K's in 224.1 innings pitched. Statistically, he is on pace to strike out more this year than ever before in his career; he's facing more batters, pitching more innings, and throwing more strikes than before. Trusty old Baseball Reference lists Price's 162 game average at 209 strikeouts - we'll use that for the rest of the argument.
Next season, his age 29 season, he'll most likely be in a new uniform and I don't even want to get into how that would affect it, although currently, Tropicana FIeld is slightly favoring to pitchers. Back to the math - Price needs 1,960 strikeouts to reach the golden 3,000 plateau. Let's say he'll finish with 240 strikeouts - the league leaders have been around there for the last few years. With that, he'll need 1,880 strikeouts. At his average of 209 K's per 162 games, he would need to pitch 8.995 seasons (let's call it 9 seasons) to reach 3,000. Factoring playoff pitching in (30 K's in 9 career games), he'll probably compile another 50 strikeouts in his career. Down to 1,830. Still 8.755 seasons worth of 209 strikeouts away from 3,000. That's already really hard to do, few pitchers can put up 8+ seasons of 200+ strikeouts, and factoring in depreciation, injury, and losing some zip off of his lively fastball. He'll be 37, nearly 38, if things go according to plan. The 5 pitchers with the fewest amount over 3,000 K's (Jenkins, Martinez, Gibson, Schilling, Smoltz [granted he was a closer for awhile]), none of them struck out 200 for 8 seasons straight. They all had one season that was an outlier from the rest of their career (Pedro's 313 in 1998, holy cow), so Price will have to flirt with 260 or 270 if he wants to chase 3,000.
But as I always say, I think he'll trade in a ring for every strikeout he's ever had. That's why I think his future is so exciting. He's an amazing person and a HUGE Vanderbilt fan.
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| Price pitching a bullpen session in full uniform on the opener of college football last year. |
Hard not to love - especially his dog, Astro!
Thanks for reading, I know it was a little lengthy and a lot of conjecture. It's fun to think about. Have a great Monday!
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