The Future of David Price

It is the best week of the year for baseball fans: All Star Week. 

Maybe not the best week; Opening Day and the World Series are just as good, but for me, I can't get enough of the All Star Game. It's the one week we put divisional differences aside and root just for the league to win. For example, last year, Jason Kipnis came up to bat in the top of the 8th at Citi Field with two outs and I was cheering him on - what Tigers fan cheers on the Indians other than the All Star Game (Sorry Indians fans, I deeply down do love you). But this post is not about the All Star Game, it is about what comes after, both shortly down the road and miles down the highway so far that we can only hypothesize. Two questions: A) Where will David Price finish this season? and 2) Will he reach 3,000 strikeouts in his career? 

Let's look at this first one. Last week, Rays beat writer and Tampa Bay Times journalist Marc Topkin tweeted during the Rays Sunday night game vs. the Tigers saying there were a number of team scouts in attendance to see David Price: Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Angels, Mariners, and Brewers. All of these teams are in the hunt for a playoff spot; only the Dodgers and Brewers sit in first place right now. I'm guessing that the Dodgers aren't serious contenders given their current rotation and a depleted farm system, and yesterday LA Times reporter Dylan Hernandez wrote that the Dodgers wouldn't trade the farm for a top pitcher. If I had Clayton Kershaw and Zack Grienke, I think I would be content too. The top two contenders in my mind are the Blue Jays or Mariners. The Mariners have stepped onto the stage as big spenders willing to wade through big contracts (Robinson Cano) to bring championships to Seattle. Jack Z is a great general manager and could be making a move for Price. Right now, the M's rotation reads: Hernandez, Iwakuma, rookie Roenis Elias, Chris Young, and Brandon Maurer. Great at the top, but if the M's want to not only compete but surpass the A's and Angels in the West, they'll need another arm. The Blue Jays are in the same boat; Mark Buehrle has slowed down considerably and right now in the East, 39-year old RA Dickey, Drew Hutchison, JA Happ, and Marcus Stroman won't be able to hold on against the Orioles hot bats. Those are my two guesses, the latter being highly compelling considering one of the American League's premier pitchers (Price leads the AL with 164 K's) will be shipped off within the same division. The Rays, sitting at 44-53, are not quite out of the running, but not quite in it either. If they are willing to deal Price to the Jays, they will have to face him 2-3 times for the rest of the season (Jays and Rays have 9 games remaining against each other). 

Price is also arbitration eligible after this season, making it likely that regardless of where he goes it will be for a World Series run. Anything after that he will be seeking a lengthy and pricy (wordplay) contract for likely the rest of his pitching days. If Max Scherzer turned down 6/$144 million, Price, who is even better, could be getting 8/$200 million or somewhere in that neighborhood. The Rays probably won't be able to afford that without completely selling out their farm team. Price is making $14 million this year - he'll want, and deserves, much more. As for where he will land after this season, I have no idea. With that much of a contract, there are very few that have those deep of pockets. 

Regardless of where he ends up, David Price is one of the best pitchers in the AL at striking out opposing hitters. Heading into the All Star Break this year, Price is first in the AL with 164 K's and is 3rd in the AL (6th in MLB) with 10.2 Ks/9. Although his record doesn't show it, he's told reporters that he is pitching the best of his career, so the scary thing is he'll only get better with confidence - here's my question?

Will David Price get to 3,000 career strikeouts?

No. 

Price is a former Cy Young Winner and likely will win another, and honestly, I think down the road he will be a Hall of Famer. But he won't get 3,000 strikeouts. 

First things first: only 16 pitchers have ever made it to 3,000 K's, and all of them are Hall of Famers (except for Schilling, Smoltz, and Pedro Martinez, and they all will be eventually). 3KK is hailed as the golden plateau for strikeout pitchers. As a rule of thumb, if you make it there, you'll make it to Cooperstown. 

As I'm writing this, Price has 1,040 career punchouts at age 28 (turning 29 just before September). In the past, Price has maxed out at 218 K's in 224.1 innings pitched. Statistically, he is on pace to strike out more this year than ever before in his career; he's facing more batters, pitching more innings, and throwing more strikes than before. Trusty old Baseball Reference lists Price's 162 game average at 209 strikeouts - we'll use that for the rest of the argument. 

Next season, his age 29 season, he'll most likely be in a new uniform and I don't even want to get into how that would affect it, although currently, Tropicana FIeld is slightly favoring to pitchers. Back to the math - Price needs 1,960 strikeouts to reach the golden 3,000 plateau. Let's say he'll finish with 240 strikeouts - the league leaders have been around there for the last few years. With that, he'll need 1,880 strikeouts. At his average of 209 K's per 162 games, he would need to pitch 8.995 seasons (let's call it 9 seasons) to reach 3,000. Factoring playoff pitching in (30 K's in 9 career games), he'll probably compile another 50 strikeouts in his career. Down to 1,830. Still 8.755 seasons worth of 209 strikeouts away from 3,000. That's already really hard to do, few pitchers can put up 8+ seasons of 200+ strikeouts, and factoring in depreciation, injury, and losing some zip off of his lively fastball. He'll be 37, nearly 38, if things go according to plan. The 5 pitchers with the fewest amount over 3,000 K's (Jenkins, Martinez, Gibson, Schilling, Smoltz [granted he was a closer for awhile]), none of them struck out 200 for 8 seasons straight. They all had one season that was an outlier from the rest of their career (Pedro's 313 in 1998, holy cow), so Price will have to flirt with 260 or 270 if he wants to chase 3,000. 

But as I always say, I think he'll trade in a ring for every strikeout he's ever had. That's why I think his future is so exciting. He's an amazing person and a HUGE Vanderbilt fan.

Price pitching a bullpen session in full uniform on the opener of college football last year. 

Hard not to love - especially his dog, Astro!

The cutest little thing this side of the Mississippi! 

Thanks for reading, I know it was a little lengthy and a lot of conjecture. It's fun to think about. Have a great Monday!

Rest in Peace, Don Zimmer

Yesterday the baseball world lost an icon in Don Zimmer. A Cincinnati native, Zimmer passed away in Florida yesterday after complications from a heart surgery in April. He was still a special assistant to the Rays and was at the ballpark every day. His wife of 63 years survives him. He was 83.

Courtesy of the Rays on Instagram.

Zimmer had been in baseball for 66 years, beginning with his road to the show. His rookie year with the Dodgers in 1954 and from there he would spend time with the Cubs, Reds, Senators (soon to be Rangers) and brand new Mets in 1962. Though Zimmer never was an offensive threat (.235 career average), he was selected to an All-Star game in 1961 with the Cubs. 

After his career as a player, he went on to manage, like many former players do. His managerial career ended just above .500, going 885-858, a winning percentage of .508 and winning Manager of the Year in 1989 with his 93-69 Cubs. 

He spent the rest of his time around baseball coaching and being an assistant, but being in the game for 66 years (79.5% of his lifetime), just think of all the history he not only got to witness firsthand but of which he was a direct part. Even as a rookie, he got to play alongside Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, and Pee Wee Reese, just to name a few. His 2nd full year in the MLB, as a 24-year old, the Dodgers won a World Series over the crosstown rival Yankees. He was on the Dodgers for when the Dodgers moved to LA and shook the town of New York. With Chicago in the early 60's he got to play with Ernie Banks, Mr. Cub himself, and Hall of Famer Ron Santo, who was then only 20 years old. 

After his short stint in the Windy City, Zimmer was called back to the Big Apple as one of the formative players for the 1962 Mets, the newest franchise on the block. He got to play for Casey Stengel, a managerial legend, and got to kick off a new franchise in his former city. How cool must that have been? He was the original Mets third basemen. Just a few years later he won another World Series ring with the '63 Dodgers, where he got to play behind Sandy Koufax's 25-5 and Don Drysdale's 19-17 seasons (for 22 games at least). And then he was a part of another new organization, the Washington Senators. Their first season was 1961 and Zimmer came to join the team shortly thereafter for the last half of the 1963 season. 

He saw even more history as a coach. Four World Series wins with the Yankees, the Rays rise to greatness under Joe Maddon, he saw the birth of the Montreal Expos as their third base coach in 1971 and he was a coach for Carlton Fisk's "waving home run" in Game 6 of the 1975 World Series. These are just a few of the amazing moments he lived - he's almost like the Forrest Gump of baseball (that he got to see so many amazing things not that he's a shrimp salesman).

Zimmer never left the game despite bouncing around from team to team and city to city. In fact, his tenure with the Rays from 2004 to now was the longest he's ever spent in a city. It seems an appropriate end to a beautifully long career. This link is a great ESPN article celebrating the career of a true baseball life.

Rest in peace, Zim. Thanks for reading. 

2014 Predictions: AL East

With Spring Training in full swing now (pun-alicious), I think now is good of a time as ever to give my predictions for the upcoming season. This will encompass everything from team records, finishes, playoff brackets, and award winners. Last year at the All-Star break, I predicted Red Sox over Cardinals in 7 games in the World Series, Red Sox over Tigers in 6, Cardinals over Braves in 5. I was better in the AL than NL but I'm still proud of how close I was.

So here we go!

1. Boston 100-62

The defending champs are in a position to do exactly that: defend their championship. Many are picking Xander Bogaerts as the AL ROY as he takes over on the infield for the Sox. Though Ryan Dempster announced that he will not pitch in 2014, their rotation will still be tough to beat. Buchholz will be healthy, and Lester will be classic flamethrowing Lester. Napoli and Papi will be back, but they lost Ellsbury and Saltalamacchia. They did add veteran winners Grady Sizemore and AJ Pierzynski; Sizemore's health is always a huge if, but he could be an excellent coach for Jackie Bradley, Jr. The signing of Mike Carp (.296/.362/.523 in 86 games) will also be a great 4th/5th outfielder. 

2. Tampa Bay 93-69

This was a tough pick over the star studded Yankees, but I think they are better managed. Reigning ROY Wil Myers will patrol the outfield and have a .300/25/100 season, David DeJesus will supply great speed and get on base for a team that is foreign to stealing. David Price, my Cy Young pick if he stays healthy, is going into a contract year and will undoubtedly go back to his old self, much of what we saw late in 2013. Chris Archer will settle in nicely as a 3rd starter and Grant Balfour will calm many nerves that Rodney frayed during his stay.

3. New York 91-71

Arguably the most active this offseason on the free agent market, signing Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, and Masahiro Tanaka. They also are getting back Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia from annoying and nagging injuries that kept them sidelined. A-Rod is out of the picture now, so the team can focus on the field and not the clubhouse. They will be back to the Bronx Bombers we know and love to hate, but I don't think we'll see them past the play-in game. Here's why: they lost not only a closer, but the best closer ever and their only answer right now is David Robertson. I'm not putting a lot of stock in Tanaka yet, I'm guessing he'll be about where Yu Darvish is down the road, but his first year will be good not great. They have a lot of stars, but that's it - not a lot of good role players for backup. 

4. Baltimore 82-80

Though they are well managed behind Buck Showalter, the rotation is an area of concern. Though Chris Tillman had an All-Star season, how much can the rest of them hold up? Similarly, the bullpen is another worry. I know Jim Johnson had a down year compared to 2012, but now he is all the way across the country in Oakland which will do them no good. Balfour's physical fiasco held them up from getting a solid closer so when it comes ninth inning they'll be throwing question marks. Their offense is second to none, with Hardy, Machado, Weiters, Davis, and Jones, and I reckon that will be the source for most of their wins. Earl Weaver said the key to winning baseball was pitching, defense and the three-run home run. Seems like Showalter follows suit. 

5. Toronto 72-90

The Jays are not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination but because they play in the vicious AL East, I do not have high expectations. Josh Johnson and JP Arencibia left for warmer weather, Rajai Davis left for a similar climate but a different division, and Emilio Bonifacio is now in the Windy City. A lot of folks left, but they will also have the Joses healthy, Reyes and Bautista. Colby Rasmus is a solid player coming into his own, but unfortunately, I don't think the Jays will be competing this year. 

Player to watch: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

Comeback player of the year: Derek Jeter, NYY

Thanks for reading! Next post will be the AL Central. Take it easy folks.