Thursday, August 7, 2014

2018 World Series Champs

It's kind of weird to think that we're four years away, but the 2018 World Series is already locked up. 

Yesterday on my lunch break I caught a glimpse of MLB Network's Top 50 Prospects and there was name that kept coming up: Cubs. 

Under new management of Rick Renteria, the Cubs are having a less-than-stellar year, sitting in last place of the NL Central at 48-64. Don't get it twisted, though: just because the Cubs are in last place does not mean they are a bad team at all. The NL Central is easily the toughest division in baseball; they sent three teams to the playoffs last year and the top 4 are separated by 4.5 games. Realistically, it is anyone's division; with Yadier Molina out, it has been tough for the Cardinals to make up ground. Same goes for the Steel City - with 2013 MVP Andrew McCutchen sidelined with a broken rib (ouch) for a few weeks, things might plateau for a bit in the midwest. 

I'm obviously joking when I say that the 2018 World Series belongs to the Cubs, but if the future ends being as bright as it is supposed to be, then they will be heavy favorites. 

Regardless of the current standings, General Manager extraordinaire Theo Epstein has made some moves this year to bolster the younger Cubs. According to ESPN, the Cubs are the 6th-youngest team in the MLB this year with an average age 26.6 years young (they are also the 3rd lightest at 203 avg. lbs, fun fact), and in the next few years that will probably drop. Before I get an existential crisis about being older than some of their stars, let's see if I can pound out what the Cubs have to look forward to. 

Of the MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospects, the Cubs have boast 8 prospects. 8 out of 100 isn't bad, but they have 3 in the top 10 (Kris Bryant, 3B; Javy Baez, 2B/SS; Addison Russell, SS). My Tigers don't have a single player in the top 100, just to give you a reference. The Cubs are no stranger to having highly touted prospects, either. Starlin Castro, the slugging shortstop was ranked the 16th best prospect by Baseball America before 2010, his rookie year (oh, he also skipped AAA). On the other side of the diamond, Anthony Rizzo was the #47 prospect by Baseball America and #37 by MLB.com (the source I used above). Both were All-Stars this year and are having solid years; Rizzo is 2nd in the NL in homers and Castro is in the top 20 in the MLB in hits. No impressed yet? Castro is 24 and Rizzo turns 25 tomorrow. 

Some of the future has already started to come in to play, now its just waiting for the rest to catch up. With Emilio Bonifacio sent to the Braves, the every day second base position has been something of a revolving door, so both Arismendy Alcantara (#36) and Javier Baez (#5) have made their Major League debuts this summer at that position. Alcantara is essentially a recreated Jose Reyes, a short quick bat and blazing speed down the line. Alcantara won't hit for much power but he puts the ball in play and will make it an average ground ball a panicky play for any infielder. Baez made his debut on Tuesday in Colorado, hitting the game winning home run for his first big league hit in the 12th inning. He also went 3-4 with 2 more dingers today. Yikes. 

So a few have been playing for a few years, a few have debuted this year, and a few more will come in the coming years. I suspect that we'll see a few of these studs, namely Bryant and outfielder Alberto Almora, as the year begins to dwindle into October. But here's what the Cubs have to look forward to in a few years when all their prospects are no longer prospects but bonafide every day big league mashers:

1st base: Rizzo
2nd base: Baez (who had more RBI's today by himself than the Tigers did the last two games)
Shortstop: Castro, or Addison Russell if Castro is traded. Russell was acquired from the A's before the All-Star break for Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija, and is still a top 10 prospect by nearly every major prospect source. 
3rd base: Bryant (he is who I am most excited to see)
Outfield: Jorge Soler (#53 prospect), Alberto Almora (#40), and Alcantara (he has been playing some centerfield already given the log jam of greatness at the middle infield)
Catcher: Kyle Schwarber (#78 prospect, 4th overall pick in the 2014 draft) 

But wait, where's the pitching? Oh, sorry. I forgot CJ Edwards, the flamethrowing righty who has a career 2.43 ERA in the minors so far. Drafted in the 48th round in 2011, this guy must have some serious talent to jump all the way to the top 100 prospects (#59 to be exact) in 3 years. 

Now. Don't think of me as Debbie Downer here, more like Realistic Rick: some prospects won't pan out - ever seen Moneyball? Billy Beane, now hailed as a genius of a GM and creator of a dynasty out in Oakland, was a 1st round pick and hit a career .219 in 6 seasons in the bigs. Sure, they have all been killing minor league pitching, but for that exact reason: it's minor league pitching. Kris Bryant can hit 30 home runs a year anywhere, but it might be a little different when he has to face Adam Wainwright and Johnny Cueto every other week. But, given the depth and strength of the Cubs farm system, if one doesn't pan out, there is another prospect eagerly awaiting for his own shot. 

All of the guys I listed above are projected to debut by 2016 (Schwarber being the latest). One may win Rookie of the Year, but I think it will take a few years for them to mesh and to adjust to Major League pitching before they are really a dominant offensive force. I'll be honest, I haven't really done a lot of research on team prospects before I began working at a minor league stadium, but regardless of my own research, the fact that Cubs can almost field an entire team with Top 100 prospects is impressive and I don't think that happens very often. Old McDonald has quite the farm. 

The 2018 World Series is not a lock. But for the Cubs who have waited so patiently for their next World Series title, I think it could be the year. They certainly will be young, free swingers, but after they all have a few years under their respective belts, I think they could really turn some heads and bring some glory back to the Friendly Confines. 


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