The Future of Max Scherzer

The past two years, the Tigers have been beneficiaries of the best starting rotation in the American League, if not baseball. The wheels have fallen off the bus a little bit this year with Justin Verlander pushing an aggressive 12-12 record, Anibal Sanchez out with a strained pectoral muscle, and David Price allowing 8 runs two starts ago against the Yankees, an opponent whom he has faced numerous times when he was in the AL East with the Rays, and 5 against the Giants yesterday. Rick Porcello has stepped up big time this year, adding a cushion of confidence for the rotation, posting a 15-10 record with a 3.30 ERA. Through thick and thin for the past few years, the Tigers have been able to count on one man no matter what: Max Scherzer.

Scherzer, 2013's AL Cy Young winner, is 15-5 this year with a 3.25 ERA and arguably the hottest topic for free agency come winter. Oakland's Jon Lester is another highly touted free agent-to-be, but chances are he'll go back to Boston after the season. The difference between he and Scherzer, however, is a big one: Lester wasn't offered a six-year, $144 million contract in the offseason.

Scherzer was, and walked away from it. 

Scott Boras, Scherzer's agent, is known as a money hawk for his clients. General managers and team owners think he's a vulture, waiting patiently with his client until the right time to sign a mega-contract into the 4th dimension for more money than I even knew existed in America. For example: Boras also represents teammate Miguel Cabrera, who signed a record 8-year, $248 million extension before this year's Opening Day. 

I don't think Scherzer will be in a Tigers uniform after this season. Especially if they don't make the playoffs, I think he'll seek greener pastures (especially financially). The Tigers deal of 6-years, $144 million wasn't disrespectful like Robinson Cano's was (or so he says), but Scherzer wants a longer deal than that, but with Verlander signed through my wedding and birth of my first born, Sanchez signed for another 4 years, and most likely David Price as the newest addition of the long term rotation, the Tigers don't have room for another pitcher who is past his peak. Scherzer turned 30 this season and only time will tell how his arm will hold up, especially with his funky mechanics and heavily torqued elbow: 

Verlander is certainly past his prime (he still throws like a power pitcher despite maxing out at 92 MPH), and Sanchez has proven to be fragile and good for only 20-25 starts and fewer than 200 innings. Price is 29 and shows no signs of age but you don't want 4 pitchers 30 or older to anchor a rotation. 

Scherzer has been very consistent throughout his career in terms of hits and earned runs allowed, and I think as he ages, he'll adjust his pitching (more disappearing changeups) to match his slowing arm speed (Scherzer can max out at 98-99).

So where will he end up?

As a free agent, Scherzer can sign anywhere the heck he wants to go. There are no draft pick compensations, no players to be named later, no whatever else a team wants, he'll just sign there. Depending on the market, it will be for probably 7 years, maybe $170 million. If his contract cracks $200 million, I'll eat my hat.

There are a number of teams I can see him going to, first of which being the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs traded away Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel earlier this year to Oakland for Addison Russell, a middle infielder which they truthfully didn't need, but that left them in the lurch for starting pitching. Youngster Kyle Hendricks has been a bright spot for the Cubs since the departure of the two aforementioned hurlers going 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA in 10 starts, but the rest of the rotation leaves something to be desired. 

Cue Scherzer. The Cubs haven't had a Cy Young winning pitcher on their roster since 2006, but he was 40 years old and went 9-11. The Cubs haven't had a Cy Young winning pitcher since 1992 (I was 6 months old when that was awarded), and it was again, Greg Maddux. That's almost ten years without a Cy Young winner even on the roster, and more than 20 years without a Cy Young winner. That's why I think Scherzer could be their guy. Scherzer has ace stuff for any team in the league except for maybe the Dodgers, but with him at the helm, good things could happen. If the Cubs and GM Theo Epstein want to spend the money on him, they'll have the best prospect class (see my blog about the Cubs from last month), and an experienced stud of a veteran. The Cubs front office will typically choose to grow talent, but Scherzer talent is rare and difficult to grow (like starfruit). With him as an ace, Hendricks, and homegrown 3-4-5 starters, the Cubs could have a solid rotation. 

The Mets could also be compelling suitors. Matt Harvey showed promise back in 2013, when he went 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA before being shut down for 2014 with a torn UCL and Tommy John surgery. When he comes back, he'll be 26 and have to carry the team on his back. Bartolo Colon

Ladies. *tips cap*

will probably be back for another year, but he'll be 42 and still just as sweaty. Rookie phenom Jacob deGrom will be back for more as will underperforming prospect Zack Wheeler (9-9, 3.45, 1.314). Scherzer would play a similar role in the Big Apple as he would in the Windy City; ace arsenal with playoff/award experience that most of the rotation does not have. It would also be very cool to see the 2013 All-Star Game starters (Harvey and Scherzer) on the same roster. That hasn't happened since 1990 when Frank Viola and Dwight Gooden (starters of the 1987 All-Star Game) both pitched for: the Mets. It's fate.

I know my predictions have been off recently, so if you don't believe me, here is a Bleacher Report article about this exact topic. As a Tigers fan, if he doesn't come home, just get him out of the AL Central. 

Thanks for reading. 

2018 World Series Champs

It's kind of weird to think that we're four years away, but the 2018 World Series is already locked up. 

Yesterday on my lunch break I caught a glimpse of MLB Network's Top 50 Prospects and there was name that kept coming up: Cubs. 

Under new management of Rick Renteria, the Cubs are having a less-than-stellar year, sitting in last place of the NL Central at 48-64. Don't get it twisted, though: just because the Cubs are in last place does not mean they are a bad team at all. The NL Central is easily the toughest division in baseball; they sent three teams to the playoffs last year and the top 4 are separated by 4.5 games. Realistically, it is anyone's division; with Yadier Molina out, it has been tough for the Cardinals to make up ground. Same goes for the Steel City - with 2013 MVP Andrew McCutchen sidelined with a broken rib (ouch) for a few weeks, things might plateau for a bit in the midwest. 

I'm obviously joking when I say that the 2018 World Series belongs to the Cubs, but if the future ends being as bright as it is supposed to be, then they will be heavy favorites. 

Regardless of the current standings, General Manager extraordinaire Theo Epstein has made some moves this year to bolster the younger Cubs. According to ESPN, the Cubs are the 6th-youngest team in the MLB this year with an average age 26.6 years young (they are also the 3rd lightest at 203 avg. lbs, fun fact), and in the next few years that will probably drop. Before I get an existential crisis about being older than some of their stars, let's see if I can pound out what the Cubs have to look forward to. 

Of the MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospects, the Cubs have boast 8 prospects. 8 out of 100 isn't bad, but they have 3 in the top 10 (Kris Bryant, 3B; Javy Baez, 2B/SS; Addison Russell, SS). My Tigers don't have a single player in the top 100, just to give you a reference. The Cubs are no stranger to having highly touted prospects, either. Starlin Castro, the slugging shortstop was ranked the 16th best prospect by Baseball America before 2010, his rookie year (oh, he also skipped AAA). On the other side of the diamond, Anthony Rizzo was the #47 prospect by Baseball America and #37 by MLB.com (the source I used above). Both were All-Stars this year and are having solid years; Rizzo is 2nd in the NL in homers and Castro is in the top 20 in the MLB in hits. No impressed yet? Castro is 24 and Rizzo turns 25 tomorrow. 

Some of the future has already started to come in to play, now its just waiting for the rest to catch up. With Emilio Bonifacio sent to the Braves, the every day second base position has been something of a revolving door, so both Arismendy Alcantara (#36) and Javier Baez (#5) have made their Major League debuts this summer at that position. Alcantara is essentially a recreated Jose Reyes, a short quick bat and blazing speed down the line. Alcantara won't hit for much power but he puts the ball in play and will make it an average ground ball a panicky play for any infielder. Baez made his debut on Tuesday in Colorado, hitting the game winning home run for his first big league hit in the 12th inning. He also went 3-4 with 2 more dingers today. Yikes. 

So a few have been playing for a few years, a few have debuted this year, and a few more will come in the coming years. I suspect that we'll see a few of these studs, namely Bryant and outfielder Alberto Almora, as the year begins to dwindle into October. But here's what the Cubs have to look forward to in a few years when all their prospects are no longer prospects but bonafide every day big league mashers:

1st base: Rizzo
2nd base: Baez (who had more RBI's today by himself than the Tigers did the last two games)
Shortstop: Castro, or Addison Russell if Castro is traded. Russell was acquired from the A's before the All-Star break for Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija, and is still a top 10 prospect by nearly every major prospect source. 
3rd base: Bryant (he is who I am most excited to see)
Outfield: Jorge Soler (#53 prospect), Alberto Almora (#40), and Alcantara (he has been playing some centerfield already given the log jam of greatness at the middle infield)
Catcher: Kyle Schwarber (#78 prospect, 4th overall pick in the 2014 draft) 

But wait, where's the pitching? Oh, sorry. I forgot CJ Edwards, the flamethrowing righty who has a career 2.43 ERA in the minors so far. Drafted in the 48th round in 2011, this guy must have some serious talent to jump all the way to the top 100 prospects (#59 to be exact) in 3 years. 

Now. Don't think of me as Debbie Downer here, more like Realistic Rick: some prospects won't pan out - ever seen Moneyball? Billy Beane, now hailed as a genius of a GM and creator of a dynasty out in Oakland, was a 1st round pick and hit a career .219 in 6 seasons in the bigs. Sure, they have all been killing minor league pitching, but for that exact reason: it's minor league pitching. Kris Bryant can hit 30 home runs a year anywhere, but it might be a little different when he has to face Adam Wainwright and Johnny Cueto every other week. But, given the depth and strength of the Cubs farm system, if one doesn't pan out, there is another prospect eagerly awaiting for his own shot. 

All of the guys I listed above are projected to debut by 2016 (Schwarber being the latest). One may win Rookie of the Year, but I think it will take a few years for them to mesh and to adjust to Major League pitching before they are really a dominant offensive force. I'll be honest, I haven't really done a lot of research on team prospects before I began working at a minor league stadium, but regardless of my own research, the fact that Cubs can almost field an entire team with Top 100 prospects is impressive and I don't think that happens very often. Old McDonald has quite the farm. 

The 2018 World Series is not a lock. But for the Cubs who have waited so patiently for their next World Series title, I think it could be the year. They certainly will be young, free swingers, but after they all have a few years under their respective belts, I think they could really turn some heads and bring some glory back to the Friendly Confines. 

2014 Predictions: NL Central

Holy cow, what a stacked division. I had a tough time figuring this one out. It seems that a lot of divisions are really top heavy, with two or three great teams, and then two or three...other teams, and the NL Central is no exception. Expect the Cardinals to be playing late into the season again. 

NL Central

1. St. Louis 102-60
I have no problem labeling the Cardinals as the only team to win 100 games this year. I think they have the top-to-bottom lineup, a young rotation, a smattering of veteran leadership, and an tactical wizard of a manager in Mike Matheny. The Cardinals didn't make a lot of offseason moves, but they made highly efficient ones. Some of you might be thinking "how is a move efficient, Bill?" Well let me tell you. With the trade of David Freese and Fernando Salas to the Angels for Peter Bourjos, they freed up a spot for rising star Matt Carpenter (.318/.392/.481) at third, allowing newcomer Kolten Wong to start at second. Despite his faux pas in the World Series, the Cardinals have put a lot of stock into him and see a bright future. If he doesn't work out, then Mark Ellis (free agent from the Dodgers) will do a good job filling in. On the other side of second base, shortstop Jhonny Peralta will make his NL debut. To many, Peralta is a delinquent and his 4 year, $52 million contract is a negative incentive for PEDs. I agree to a certain extent with that, but he's paid his dues and I think he knows not to do it again. Also, despite his increased power numbers, Peralta also went through a swing change in the 2013 offseason, creating more of a line drive swing, allowing him to hit .303 before his suspension. His range at shortstop isn't good but the balls he gets to are fielded perfectly; that's why it's smart to have a quick third and second basemen - maybe they can reach some things he won't. Back to the outfield: though seeing perennial all-star Carlos Beltran go to New York was hard, Cardinals fans and administrators have a secret weapon in Oscar Taveras, who is likely to start in right this year. If he doesn't, then Jon Jay will. Either one is a good bet; Jay is a career .293 hitter and has good speed on the base paths. Taveras is an overwhelmingly popular pick for NL ROY. So pick your poison Cardinals. As always, Yadier Molina will be the best catcher in the NL (arguably the whole league now that Joe Mauer is no longer a catcher) again, and lead the team deep into the postseason. The Boston Globe called him a player to build around, and I could not agree more; he's a tactician, a great hitter, and stays out of trouble.

I'll leave you to chew on this: the Cardinals had a run differential last year of +187. Second to whom? The World Champion Red Sox. Don't be surprised if they hit +200 this year. 

2. Cincinnati 94-68
I promise you, even though I didn't pick the people's choice Pittsburgh Pirates to be near the top again, I still have a heart and soul. I think the Reds made better moves to compete. First and foremost, they fired bunt happy manager Dusty Baker and hired pitching coach Bryan Price. Here's why I like this move: A) it's hiring from within so Price knows the system and the players. Chemistry won't be an issue. B) It's not Dusty Baker. Baker is a fine manager, but only in the regular season. He's been graced with some incredibly talented teams (2002 Giants, 2003 Cubs, 2012 Reds) and could only take one pennant in 20 years managing. Now even though they lost Shin Soo Choo, speedster Billy Hamilton is taking his place, and if his average stays healthy, he could make a run at ROY. Rounding out the outfield with Jay Bruce and Chris Heisey, they will be in good shape on both sides of the ball. The infield is defensively sound, but sometimes lacking offensively. 2010 MVP Joey Votto is exempt from that statement with his .314 average and consistently league-leading OBP. Brandon Phillips (Dat Dude)

is a supplier of power, but not a lot of consistency. Despite his trade rumors he will be back in Cincy this year. Cozart and Frazier, hitting .254 and .234 respectively last year, will be the everyday starters on the left side. Cozart went through swing reconstruction this offseason, and I am eager if he can reach his full gap-to-gap potential. Having just signed Homer Bailey to 6 years and $105 million, the Reds are looking into the future, eyeing a title not this year, but definitely before 2020. Surrounding him with Mat Latos, Mike Leake (fantasy steal), and Johnny Cueto makes for a dangerous rotation (good dangerous).

3. Pittsburgh 93-69
I don't even know if its statistically possible to have three teams win 90 games in a season in the same division, but it's happening. Mainly because these three will beat up on the other two remaining teams, but nonetheless, the Pirates are still a great team. Neil Walker is an under-the-radar stud (probably just because he's Don Kelly's brother-in-law), Clint Barmes is a good defender, and Pedro Alvarez broke out last year to lead the NL in home runs. He only hit .233 but that's not what he's paid to do, am I right? Of course I am, that's why you've read this far. Naturally, we will see Cutch produce out of his mind, and young Starling Marte will follow suit and learn a lot. Losing AJ Burnett will hurt, but the signing of Edinson Volquez will bolster that somewhat; last year Burnett went 10-11, Volquez 9-12. He will likely be the 3rd or 4th starter, behind Francisco Liriano (who emerged late in the season as a pitcher who means business), Jeff Locke, and 22-year old Gerrit Cole. Clint Hurdle is an excellent manager, taking a team that batted .245 and sending them to their first playoff seed in over 20 years. They'll be back on the cornrows of MLB '13 The Show coverboy Andrew McCutchen.

4. Chicago 69-93
The outfield in Wrigleyville will look different at the beginning of next season. Not the physical grass, but who's playing there. Last year, it was Soriano, DeJesus, and Schierholtz. This year it will likely be Ryan Sweeney, Junior Lake (who unfortunately sacrificed rookie status last year, otherwise he could have made a run at ROY), and Schierholtz. Chris Coghlan will be roving as a 4th outfielder. Lake is a young injection of energy. Good fielder (came up as a shortstop) and base stealer, but he strikes out far too often to be effective long term. In 64 games in 2013, he struck out 68 times, but he also hit .284. We'll see what hitting coach Bill Mueller has in store for him this year in Arizona. The infield will be the same: Valbuena, Castro, Barney, Rizzo: all defense, little offense. The four of them hit a combined .226, with only Rizzo showing decent power. Having "Bad Scrabble Board" Jeff Samardzija

back as the ace will help matters, otherwise 9-12 Travis Wood is the ace. Jake Arrieta will return from injury, Jason Hammel is a good four starter, with the heavy loser (8-18 in 2013) Edwin Jackson bringing up the rear. Jose Veras (3.02 ERA in 2013) is a great pick up; Cubs fans will enjoy not have Marmol come in to close games, and young Pedro Strop will do swell in the setup role. New manager Rick Renteria will most likely be on a pretty short leash; 4 managers in 8 years, 13 in the last 23 years.

5. Milwaukee 65-97
Last year, the Brewers went 74-88, which wasn't bad considering they lost their best player, Ryan Braun, for a hefty suspension. I do not foresee that being their fortune this year. 'But Carlos Gomez had a career year!' Exactly: a career year. Not a year to change his career. He's a career .255 hitter. Aramis Ramirez, if he stays healthy, will have a little bit of relief since Braun is returning to the clean-up slot. 23-year old shortstop Jean Segura is an incredibly bright spot, batting .294 last season (highest of the non-dopers). Scooter Gennett is another solid young middle infielder, and he'll likely take over for .209 Rickie Weeks, but how much will he be able to hold up throughout the entire season? The pitching staff did add Matt Garza, a much needed ace, but he'll be pitching most of his games against the aforementioned Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates, so his offense will have to show up (not likely). Lyle Overbay will take over at first, and as much as I'd like to say he'll repeat what he did in New York last year (which was still only .240), I don't think they'll get much production out of him. They aren't a terrible team, but they also lost Corey Hart and play in a wicked division. Unfortunately, I don't think Bernie Brewer will be sliding too much this year.

Thanks for reading! Almost done with the divisions!