Breaking Down Buck, Pt. II

So here I am, back for more, breaking down the career of O's manager Buck Showalter. Yesterday we talked about his path to management, his intriguing managing patterns in terms of employment, and Bad Luck Buck in terms of the teams he manages going on to win World Series after the poor guy left the franchise. 

I left you with some homework of who would win in a best of 7 series between the three teams he's managed that resulted in a Manager of the Year award; the 1994 Yankees, the 2004 Rangers, or last season's Orioles. Let's run down the lineups (in no particular batting order, just how BBR presented them):

1994 Yankees
C: Mike Stanley          
1B: Don Mattingly 
2B: Pat Kelly 
SS: Mike Gallego
3B: Wade Boggs
LF: Luis Polonia
CF: Bernie Williams
RF: Paul O'Neill
DH: Danny Tartabull
SP: Jim Abbott, Jimmy Key, Melido Perez, Terry Mulholland, Scott Kamieniecki
RP: Steve Howe (Closer), Bob Wickman, Xavier Hernandez, Donn Pall, Paul Gibson

The '94 Yankees were no different from the Bronx Bombers of the later '90s, leading the league in average (.290, holy cow), and OBP, and finishing second in runs, hits, slugging percentage, and total bases, and third in doubles and fourth in home runs. Even though they did not yet have Yankee legends Jeter and Rivera and other famous Yankees from their three-peat like Scott Brosius, Chuck Knoblauch, and Roger Clemens, the '94 Yankees had the best record at the time of the strike and despite there being no postseason, I think they would have been the favorites for winning it all. 

2004 Rangers
C: Rod Barajas
1B: Mark Teixeria
2B: Alfonso Soriano
SS: Michael Young
3B: Hank Blalock
LF: David Dellucci
CF: Laynce Nix
RF: Kevin Mench
DH: Brad Fullmer
SP: Kenny Rogers, Joaquin Benoit, Chan Ho Park, Ryan Drese, RA Dickey
RP: Francisco Cordero (closer), Carlos Almanzar, Ron Mahay, Frank Francisco, Brian Shouse

This team was a mean combination of pure slugging and clean pitching and defense. They ranked second in total bases, third in the AL in home runs and slugging percentage, and fourth in doubles and triples. They scored 10 runs or more 17 different times and threw shutouts 9 different times throughout the season. Despite missing the postseason, the Rangers had an 18 game win improvement, which was second in the AL to the Tigers (who set to the record for most losses in a year in 2003, it was hard to go anywhere but up) with +29. Closer Francisco Cordero also was 2nd in the MLB in saves to best-closer-ever Mariano Rivera. Their bullpen was lights out.

2014 Orioles
C: Matt Wieters (lost to injury) / Caleb Joseph
1B: Chris Davis (injury/suspension) / Steve Pearce
2B: Jonathan Schoop
SS: JJ Hardy
3B: Manny Machado (injury) / Ryan Flaherty
LF: David Lough / Alejandro De Aza / Delmon Young
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Nelson Cruz
SP: Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kevin Gausman 
RP: Zach Britton (primary closer), Tommy Hunter (lost closing role early in year), Darren O'Day, Brian Matusz, Andrew Miller, Ryan Webb

The 2014 Orioles played second fiddle to AL dominance to the Angels. Even though their 96-66 record was only a game back of the Halos, it seems that if the Yankees or Red Sox aren't competitive, no one cares about the East. I think this year may have been the best for Showalter in terms of managerial acumen because he lost his All-Star catcher, first baseman, and third baseman and still took the second best record in the AL. The Orioles were much like Earl Weaver's Orioles, relying on pitching, defense, and the three-run home run (the Birds finished 1st in the AL with 211 homers). Ranking first in saves, Buck showed some serious managerial guts by giving lefty Britton the closing role after Hunter posted a 6.52 ERA through June 15. 

So who would win? 

The 2004 Rangers. Hank Blalock had a career year in terms of power (he was great for like, three years and then disappeared) and with table setters of Dellucci (steals, bunting), Young (one of the best contact hitters in our generation), sluggers of Soriano and Teixeira could drive them in. Neither the 2014 Orioles nor 1994 Yankees pitched well against left-handed hitters, of which the Rangers had four. Their bullpen was so convincingly better along with better (not the best) starting pitching of the three that any home run Teixeira puts into the right field bleachers would be protected tooth and nail.

While this is all merely conjecture and really you never know what could happen with the 90s meeting the steroid era meeting the post-steroid era, it was still a compelling write. I'm curious to see how Buck would manage against himself. He's not one to hit and run or drop bunts or steal a lot, because he relies on the power numbers and good pitching, which is why the '04 Rangers take the Buck series - they had the best pitching. 

Thanks for reading. 

Breaking Down Buck, Pt. I

As deer hunting season opens up this weekend and the snow is coming down everywhere I look outside my window, I figured what a better time to take a look at Buck Showalter's time as a manager. William Nathaniel Showalter, a product of the Mississippi State Bulldogs baseball program, was drafted by the Yankees in the 5th round of the 1977 draft, which wasn't a deep class for talent, but did include future stars like Ozzie Smith, Terry Francona, Paul Molitor, and Harold Baines. I'm sure most of these draftees, especially the ones coming out of college, were thankfully relieved that it was this draft their career took them to rather than the draft for the Vietnam war which had ended only a few short years before this new group tested their skills in the vast universe that is Minor League Baseball.

Showalter never made it to the show. Despite hitting .294 throughout his 7-year minor league career, he never caught the big break to appear in the House That Ruth Built. It would have been extremely difficult at that time, considering the Yankees won back-to-back World Series in 1977 and 1978, lost the pennant in 1980, and won the pennant but lost the World Series in 1981. They had some great teams and for a decent hitting, relatively small outfielder (Buck only stands at 5'9"), there wasn't a lot of space on the roster (you try beating Dave Winfield and Reggie Jackson for a spot). 

So he took to managing. Shortly after his playing career had ended, Showalter was named manager to a team that he actually passed over in the minors, the low-A Oneonta Yankees. Showalter, now 29 starting his first managing stint, led the young Yankees to an incredible 55-23 record, even though only two offensive payers made it to the Major Leagues (one of whom, Tom Giles, made it as a pitcher rather than his natural third base), he had great pitching, led by 19-year old Al Leiter. Showalter, similar to his playing career, slowly worked his way up the family tree of the Yankees minors; two years in Oneonta, two years in Ft. Lauderdale, and a year with Albany, the AA team.

Showalter, at the young age of 36, finally got his chance at the Major League level when he managed the early '90s Yankees. If nothing else, the Yankees showed tremendous loyalty to Buck, because his mind for baseball was too good to waste. They drafted him in 1977, and 15 years later he was their manager. How many times to teams draft their future manager? 

In 4 years with the Yankees, Showalter posted a 313-268 record, a .539 winning percentage. Unfortunately, you all know the Steinbrenners and their impatience for winning so Showalter was shown the door, just a year after he won his first Manager of the Year award in the strike-shortened season of 1994. Before the strike, the Yankees were 70-43 and 6.5 games ahead of his future Orioles for first place in the AL East. The Yankees would hire now Hall of Famer Joe Torre to manage, which I think was a good move considering they won 4 World Series (3 consecutively from 1998-2000). 

Showalter has had an eerie pattern with his managing career. With the Yankees, Dbacks, Rangers, and now Orioles, he's never been with a team for more than 4 full seasons (his current tenure with the Orioles has been 4 seasons and about 50 games in 2010). Lucky for him though, Orioles management signed him to a lengthy extension through the 2018 season so that pattern will be broken. But, in his first year with any given team, he's always been below .500:

• 1992 Yankees: 76-86
• 1998 Diamondbacks: 65-97
• 2003 Rangers: 71-91
• 2011 Orioles: 69-93

Then the year after, he brings chemistry to the clubhouse and makes his teams quite formidable:

• 1993 Yankees: 88-74
• 1999 Diamondbacks: 100-62
• 2004 Rangers: 89-73 (Manager of the Year)
• 2012 Orioles: 93-69

But then the trend goes the other way. After he leaves the team, they excel beyond comparison:

• 1996 Yankees (Buck left in '95): World Champs, Jeter ROY
• 2001 Diamondbacks (Buck left in 2000): World Champs, Randy Johnson CYA
• 2010 Rangers (Buck left in 2006): Back-to-back pennants

That has to be hard to swallow,

though he is on the right track with the Orioles, winning the AL East this year and advancing to the ALCS. If they can get some more starting pitching to complement Chris Tillman, they should be fierce contenders. 

What's the most interesting pattern to me are is his award winning years. Showalter has been named the Manager of the Year in 1994, 2004, and 2014. He is the second manager to win the award in three different decades (Tony La Russa won in '83, '88, '93, '02) but he is the first to win the award exactly 10 years apart twice (La Russa came pretty close). 

So here's my question: which of his Manager of the Year teams would win in a best-of-7 series?

1994 Yankees vs. 2004 Rangers vs. 2014 Orioles

Find out tomorrow. Thanks for reading Part I.