The 2014 AL MVP

The MVP is such an interesting race to me. There are so many different ways to measure a player's value to a team - some people will use WAR, total offensive output, team success, etc. None of those are wrong as long as they are justified correctly. Personally, the way I determine a player's value is sort of a hybrid of those, combining team stats and record plus the player's individual stats (I weight clutch stats very heavily into account) to produce the type of what-if-the-team-didn't-have-him type of label. It gets a little messy, but I think I have a pretty good handle on things. 

If you remember from my preseason predictions, I said Miguel Cabrera was a safe pick for the MVP, but after a disappointing (by Cabrera standards) season, hitting .313/.371/.524 with 25 home runs and 109 RBIs, he will not win the award for a third consecutive season. My actual guess was Angels outfielder Mike Trout, who had a solid season, but one different from past Trout. Rather than being a prototypical leadoff hitter, Trout was now the 2nd hitter for the Angels, and fell into a more power hungry campaign, leading the league in RBIs, total bases, and strikeouts. He stole half as many bases as last year and a third as many as his rookie year, walked 27 fewer times, and had a lower OBP by 45 points, but still managed to lead the league in runs (he has Pujols and David Freese to thank for that). 

My bold prediction was Manny Machado, who played only half the season. Despite the injury, Machado hit .283 with 14 doubles in 82 games - not MVP caliber.

So anyway, who deserves the AL MVP? I don't think there is a wrong answer, though there are good arguments for a number of players.

• Michael Brantley: .327 avg (3rd in MLB, best on team by almost 50 points) and one of 2 players with 200 hits in the MLB (led Indians by 66 hits). Michael Bourn missed 56 games, Jason Kipnis missed 34 games, Asdrubal Cabrera was traded away, Nick Swisher missed half the year, and Carlos Santana had a career-low batting average season, but the Indians still finished 85-77, only 4 games out of a Wild Card spot. A lot of that is due to Terry Francon's wizardry managing skills to get the most out of the replacements, a lot of it is Corey Kluber's dominating season, but I think most of it is Michael Brantley coming through in the clutch. The Indians hit .254 as a team in 2014, but if you remove Michael Brantley from the offense, that average dips - neigh, plummets - to .213. His clutch stats blow me away - in every category broken down by Baseball Reference, he hit over .300, including .312 in a tie game and .317 when the Indians were down by 1. He hit .366 against the AL Central and .405 against the Tigers and Royals, both playoff teams (although the Tigers didn't really fight much in the ALDS). Brantley set career highs in nearly every offensive category, and though personal success doesn't necessarily directly translate to value, in this case, it certainly does. He must have a very strong back, because he put Cleveland on it in 2014. 
• JD Martinez: Martinez was arguably the pick up of the year for the Tigers, basically a freebie from Houston after being cut out of Spring Training. After a short stint in AAA, Martinez played 123 games for the Tigers out of the 5 hole as excellent protection to Cabrera and the other Martinez, hitting .315 with 23 home runs and 30 doubles. Like Brantley, Martinez had career highs in average, home runs, doubles, total bases, etc., but how valuable was he? Not quite Brantley status, but when it mattered, he came through. The 26-year old Miami native hit .315 with 2 outs and runners in scoring position (usually they were the molasses footed Cabrera and VMart, which means his 28 RBI in 54 AB in that situation were seriously clutch), and .300 with 11 home runs and 31 RBIs in 217 ABs when the Tigers were down by 1 run. 6 of his 23 jacks came in the 9th inning (3 of those gave the Tigers the lead, another 2 brought them to within 1 run). He also hit .354 in September while the Tigers were stumbling to the finish, barely staving off the Royals by a single game. He won't win MVP - and doesn't deserve to - but there's no denying how valuable this slugging leftfielder was for the Motor City.
• Felx Hernandez: King Felix better win the Cy Young award for how much he gave Seattle. But MVP is a different story. He could get consideration, but probably not the award, but here's some food for thought: in 8 of his 15 wins, the Mariners lost the previous night. 7 other times the Mariners won when Felix took a no-decision, 5 of those came after a loss - he pitched well enough for the team to win so he accounted for 13 team wins. He played stopper for a team that needed him to step up if they wanted to make the postseason (probably would have showed better than the A's and Angels, just saying). 
• Jose Abreu: Abreu will win the Rookie of the Year by what should be the biggest margin in history. Hitting .317 with 36 home runs and 107 RBIs (and missed 17 games), he led the White Sox convincingly in every category except for triples, runs scored, and strikeouts (that's a good thing). With White Sox mainstay Paul Konerko calling it a career after 2014, Abreu's increase in production will be incredibly valuable in the future - I think he'll win one or two when the time comes.

Should Trout win? Honestly, no. Though a lot of people consider him a snub the past two years (I don't), he didn't do enough to win the award for me. .286 average is good, but not the most valuable. Home runs, RBIs, yes they're all important he played a major role in the Angels snagging the best record in baseball. Yes he won the All-Star Game MVP and he can crush the best pitching. But when it mattered, where was he? Short answer: far from valuable. 

Trout's clutch stats, per BBR.

.200 with 2 outs and RISP? .277 with 69 K's with a tie game? Trout's batting average drops nearly 20 points (.296 to .279) when the team he's playing is below .500 versus above .500, including .189 against the Orioles, Tigers, and Dodgers combined with 25 strikeouts in 17 games. Don't get me wrong, I think Trout is an excellent player and arguably the next Jeter in terms of class and mindset, but hey, Jeter never won an MVP either. This year won't be his year. 

So who's the winner? Jose Altuve.

Altuve led the MLB in average and hits and led the AL in steals. The Astros finished 70-92, a 19 win improvement from 2013, and they did it with an interim manager for the last 24 games. Without Altuve, the Astros team average would drop from .242 to .225, not as severe as a drop as the Indians and Brantley, but the Astros kept the same lineup for most of the year and had a smaller sample size to divide from. His clutch stats are even better than anybody's we've already talked about: 

Altuve's clutch stats, per BBR.

Other than George Springer's brief power surge after his debut in the first half, Altuve was the lone shining star in the Lone Star State. I think he has the clutch numbers, and regular numbers, to win the Most Valuable Player award.

If you take Trout off the Angels, they might not be a playoff team. If you take Brantley off the Indians, they would not be a .500 team. If you take King Felix off the Mariners, who knows where they would be? But if you take Altuve off the Astros, there is no way they have 70 wins, and no way that their yongsters did as well as they did. In my mind, Altuve is the right choice for the MVP.

As always, thanks for reading. And I would do an NL MVP post, but we all know it will be Kershaw. Take care.

Grading My Awards Candidates

Happy 4th of July! I hope everyone had a relaxing and baseball filled weekend; I know I did. The Whitecaps happened to be on the road for the weekend so I was lucky enough to spend it with my awesome family, most of it being in the sun (bad idea). 

But for the sake of carrying on, I figured I would continue with my self-evaluations and do my award winners. Here's how it will work: I'll rehash my guesses, evaluate them and how each player is doing, and then move on to who should win if the season were to end today. I'm not going to project numbers or trade deadlines because that's just too risky. Here we go!

AL MVP:
My guess was Mike Trout. A lot of folks feel that he should have won one of the last two years over Cabrera (listen to anyone on ESPN and they'll say so), and whatever you think, that's fine, go ahead. Trout this year is playing a different game, hitting for more power (20 HR, 23 doubles, .606 slugging) but not stealing as many bases. At a .308 average, it's low for him and his career but still a great average. The Angels are also playing really good baseball right now, but I don't think that's all because of Trout. Pujols and Josh Hamilton are finally producing how the Angels wanted them to and because of that, they are sitting pretty at 50-36 (2nd most wins in the AL). But he shouldn't win MVP. Who should?

Jose Altuve. I can't say enough about this guy. The Astros aren't a great team, yeah, we get that. They won't make the playoff this year, and maybe not for another few years, but man is this guy having a great season. Altuve, just a year older than Trout, currently leads the AL in the following categories: batting average (.338), steals (37), hits (137 - 91 singles, also first), at bats per strikeout (13.8), and defensive putouts (162) for second basemen. It's clear that he is performing on both sides of the game, offensive and defensive, and he won't even get an All-Star selection for it, which means his chances at MVP are low. Granted, those that vote for MVP pay much closer attention to the game than the ASG, so it's possible, but if you take Altuve off the Astros, they would not have 36 wins like they do now. 

NL MVP: 
I went with Goldschmidt, considering he was a snub last year, hitting .302 and leading league in home runs, RBI's, slugging, and total bases. This year, he is right about there again, on pace to surpass his total in doubles, total bases, and average. But he will not win the MVP. 

Tulowitzki will. He is tearing the cover off the ball, and that's not just because he is in the thin Colorado air. He is finally playing up to his full potential and battling through his past few injury-ridden years. In my NL West preview, I wrote "Tulowitzki will produce a ton if he can stay healthy." Look at this me! I know my baseball! Tulo, at the age of 29, is having the best season of his career as well as the best season of a shortstop since Nomar hit .372 10-12 years ago. He leads the entire MLB in average (.350), on-base (.441), and runs (66), and leads the NL in slugging (.608) and fielding percentage! On both sides of the ball, Tulo is playing up to the hype of what his rookie campaign of 2006 showed. 

AL Cy Young: 
I went with David Price in his contract year. Not a bad pick, but Price could be on the move pretty soon which could throw off his game. If he lands with a contender, it could light a fire in his belly and make him pitch even better. Despite his 7-7 record and 3.50 ERA, the 6'6" lefty said last week that he is pitching better now than he did in 2011 (his first Cy Young award year). He leads the league in strikeouts, but also home runs allowed. If he wants a shot at his 2nd piece of hardware. But if the season were to end today, it would be Felix Hernandez.

The beautiful Safeco Field cheering on their king.

The beloved King Felix is back to his filthy ways; he currently boasts a 10-2 record with a 2.11 ERA (AL leader). He also has 145 strikeouts (2nd in MLB), and a .89 WHIP (2nd in MLB, first in AL). There's really not much to say, King Felix never really makes headlines for his great pitching until he shocks the rest of the country by posting numbers like this. 

NL Cy Young: 

Kershaw on the final out of his second career no-hitter.

I picked Kershaw. It's going to be Kershaw. He's 10-2, has a 1.85 ERA, a .870 WHIP, and leads the MLB in K/9 and K/BB ratio, despite only having 115 - it shows how good his control is (only 12 walks allowed). He also threw his second career no-hitter earlier this year, and it wasn't just a no-hitter. It should have been a perfect game if Hanley Ramirez threw the ball cleanly to first. Bill James (statistician extraordinaire) said it was the second greatest game thrown by a pitcher, ever. 0 walks, 15 K's, 79/107 pitches for strikes. Wow. He's only 26, already has 2 CYA, and is well on his way to a third. 

Managers of the Year are hard to predict because its not always the manager that wins the most games. For example, last year Terry Francona led the Indians to 92 wins and won the award when four other teams had the same or more wins than he. So if I were to guess, I'd say Bob Melvin for the A's (I picked Francona) - I know I literally just said that the winningest managers don't always win, but here it should happen. There's winning, and then there's quality winning, and the A's are quality winners. They play beautiful baseball and get production from everyone up and down the lineup as well as the pitching stuff. The addition of Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija (that's a bad Scrabble board) should help bolster their playoff chances. For the NL, I guessed Ryne Sandberg for the what he would do with an aging team. The Phillies are the 2nd worst team in the NL, and I don't care who you are, that won't win any awards. I think Ron Roenicke out in Milwaukee might get it for the same reason Melvin would. Not only do the Brewers lead the NL in wins, but he makes the most out of the role players. Sure, it's easy to win when you have Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez, but Aramis Ramirez and K-Rod are back from the dead, Jonathan Lucroy is having a career year, and Scooter Gennett (heck of a name) is flirting with an All-Star selection. I think it comes down to coaching. 

Now I said earlier that I don't know anything about rookies or prospects, but my ROY picks look really really really really bad right now. I went with Taijuan Walker in the AL - he has pitched in one game. Jose Abreu or Masahiro Tanaka will take it home (Tanaka is also in the CYA discussion, going 12-3 with a 2.27 ERA). For the NL, there isn't much of a race. Gregory Polanco came on strong for the Pirates a few weeks ago, but has been quiet since - he'll have to keep up his .299 average to make a splash. As for right now, I'd have to guess either he or Billy Hamilton, whose .275 average is exceeding expectations, but his speed is so fun to watch. Here's a great article by SBNation's Scott Lindholm on the Rookie of the Year race.

We'll see. Thanks for reading.