A Tribute to Mr. Padre

This past week, the baseball world lost a legend. Tony Gwynn, a lifetime San Diego Padre, had one of the purest lefty swings of all time, compiling 3,141 hits in his 20 year career. Gwynn had been the San Diego State University head baseball coach before passing away due to cancer at the heartbreakingly young age of 54. 

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a post about how we are living in the Hall of Fame Era, meaning that we are living in such an amazing era of baseball that we are honored to see some of the greatest players to ever set foot on a diamond. Gwynn, in my mind, kicked off that era. Inducted into the Hall of Fame with Cal Ripken, Jr. in 2007, he was the first class of many to embody not only incredible talent but also sportsmanship, and something still new, technology into the game. 

Gwynn at the 2007 Induction Ceremony in Cooperstown. He was back last year in 2013 - I was probably no more than 15 feet away from him.

If you go to Tony Gwynn's Baseball Reference page, you'll see his nicknames are Mr. Padre (what everyone knows him by) and Captain Video, because he was one of the first players to use video technology to tweak his swing. His wife would sit up in the bleachers with of those massive old school Sony camcorders and film all of his at-bats. After the game, he would sit alone in the clubhouse and watch his swing. What worked, what didn't work, what the pitcher did, his reactions to different pitches, etc. That probably explains why his career high in hits for a season came when he was 37 years old. With technology these days, an entire archive of pitching sequences are available within seconds. A hitter can see his mistakes and his successes side by side for day games, night games, rainy days, sunny days, home or away. Gwynn didn't have that privilege, he manually edited and had to find his own splits. Eventually, the sport would have realized how useful technology can be for improving and training young hitters, but Gwynn expedited the process and set the gold standard for body control through video training. 

Because of his dedication to video training, he is easily one of the most consistent hitters of all time, not just in terms of average (career .338 is T-18th best ever) but also hit location. Gwynn was famous for taking nearly any pitch and lightly serving it out to left field between the shortstop and third basemen. After doing this probably 1500-2000 times in his career, the 5.5 hole was born. On a baseball scorecard where each position is given a number, the shortstop is 6 and the third basemen is 5. For scoring purposes a groundout from short to first looks like 6-3 to show that the shortstop threw it to the first basemen for the put out. So, since Gwynn hit so many right between the two infielders, it became the norm to hit it through the 5.5 hole. On the day of his passing, the Tigers and Mariners' groundskeepers raked a "TG 5.5" and number 19 (respectively) at the part of the dirt where so many of his hits fell. 

Above: Tigers' head groundskeeper Heather Nabozny put this special dirt between short and third the night of his passing against the Royals.
Below: The Mariners honored Gwynn by placing his jersey number 19 at the same spot. 

This 5.5 phenomenon became so popular that Gwynn even had "5.5" on the tongue of his spikes so when he would look down while at the plate, he would be reminded to let the ball travel and push it back to left field. He only hit 135 home runs in his career, which shows how dedicated he was to a good swing rather than a powerful one.

Gwynn was such an amazing hitter. While writing this, I just sat and stared at his hitting consistency and overall ability. These are my favorite highlights:

• His worst year in terms of average was his rookie year, when he hit .289 in 54 games. After that, he never hit below .309. He hit .350 or higher 7 times.
• He compiled more than 200 hits 5 times in his career, led the league 7 times (NL twice, MLB 5 times). His career high of 220 hits in a season came in 1997 - at age 37. 
• Gwynn never struck out in 129 career at-bats against Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux.
• His career average of .338 is the highest of anyone who's career began after WWII (minimum 5,000 AB).
• He had 7 full seasons where he struck out fewer than 20 times. 
• He had 7 seasons where he had more triples than homers.
• He hit .400 off of eight different Cy Young Winners. 

Jayson Stark has more amazing stats in his article on the late but great Tony Gwynn here.

I said in a post a few months ago that Jeter was the best player without an MVP. Gwynn never won an MVP either, and I think he just overstepped Jeter for being the best without an MVP. At least Jeter has rings, Gwynn only got one pennant in his time in San Diego.

It is a sad, sad day for the baseball world. Tony Gwynn was a classy guy who played the game at a higher level than most we've seen in this generation. It's hard to believe he's gone only at the age of 54. I wish I had been born a few years earlier so I could have really appreciated and understood how pure his hitting really was. 

Rest in peace, Mr. Padre.

2014 Predictions: NL West

This is the last division, folks. We are nearly there, thanks for bearing with me. The NL West is the weakest division in the league and has been for a few years. Not the worst, but the weakest. Their division winning percentage of .492 is the 3rd lowest in baseball, which is not bad, but they only had one team above .500 (one was also at .500). The other divisions that had lower winning percentages were the NL Central (who had the 66-96 Cubs) and the AL West (who had the 51-111 Astros). This will be a one horse race for the majority of the year if not the whole year. The 1927 Yankees spent every single day in 1st place; I can see the Dodgers doing the same thing. They start the season in Australia against their only real competitor Diamondbacks - if they get a 2 game lead, they will not look back.

1. Los Angeles 98-64

I think the Dodgers have a chance to win 100 games this year, I really do. It depends on injuries. Last year, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, and Matt Kemp had multiple trips to the DL. Puig missed a number of games with a sore hip (presumably from sliding into home on his walkoff home run - you'll learn I do not like anything about Puig). Adrian Gonzalez was in and out of the lineup in May; nothing serious, but it was still a missed bat. Zack Grienke broke his collarbone in a fight with Carlos Quentin and missed a few weeks. Fellow hurlers Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly went on the DL at least once each, as did both Ellises (Mark and AJ). That said, the Dodgers have a ton of talent up and down the dugout. The 1-6 hitters will most likely be Crawford, Puig, Ramirez, Gonzalez, Kemp, Uribe - holy cow.

Outfielders Crawford, Ethier, and Puig.

Then the rotation looks like Kershaw (best pitcher in the game), Grienke, Ryu, newly signed Dan Haren, and Paul Maholm or Josh Beckett. The bullpen also has flaming arms of Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen. Playing in the NL West the Dodgers will steamroll their way to the top with ease. 

2. Arizona 83-79

The Dbacks have gone 81-81 the past two years. Short of signing Mark Trumbo,

Slugger Mark Trumbo joins the Diamondbacks outfield in 2014.

the offseason was pretty quiet - picked up aging Bronson Arroyo, Eric Chavez, and Henry Blanco. Another solid pick up was Addison Reed to bolster the bullpen and give JJ Putz and Brad Ziegler support.  Gerardo Parra, coming off of a Gold Glove season, will continue to blossom in his career. Cody Ross is another powerful hitter that will play alongside Trumbo in the outfield. Goldschmidt should win the MVP this year. Last season's snub aside, he has the capability to hit .330/30/130. If he does that, there shouldn't be any questions about his value and therefore should win the award. That said, the Dbacks should also go over .500 to give him a shot. The infield rounds out with Aaron Hill, Didi Gregorius, and Martin Prado. A solid roster, but weak on pitching (Corbin, Cahill, Miley, and now Arroyo).

3. San Francisco Giants 81-81
2013 was a bad year for the Giants, mainly because Pedro Gomez wasn't following them around for the whole season. They will likely have the identical starting 7 position players, with the exception of newly signed slugger Mike Morse.

After hopping around the league with Seattle, Baltimore, and Washington, Morse landed a home by the Bay.

All the pieces were there for the Giants, so its a bit of a conundrum that they did not perform better. They are an excellent hitting team; with a team batting average of .260 (.269 excluding pitchers' stats) was 4th in the NL and 8th in the MLB. The problem is the long ball, the Giants finished second to last in the team AB per HR category, hitting a home run once every 51 at bats, barely one every other game. They also finished 25th in extra base hits. They are a singles team that didn't play enough small ball. Matt Cain underperformed, going 8-10, as did Barry Zito (5-11) and Tim Lincecum (10-14). It was frustrating to say the least. Their power numbers will go back up this year; Kung Fu Panda finished with about 10 fewer bombs than usual, and Buster Posey will add a few more. 81-81 is a low ball I think, considering they will play almost 40 games against the very weak Colorado and San Diego. They won the title in 2010 and 2012, so 2014 would fit the mold. Bruce Bochy won't put up with another sub-.500 year.

4. Colorado 72-90
Offensively, the Rockies are great. A force to be reckoned with, even. If Cuddy can match last year, look out. Losing the Toddfather hurts, but Justin Morneau is a nearly identical version of him (minus the awesome facial and the fact that he is Canadian, poor guy) in terms of doubles and average.

Morneau signed a two-year deal with Colorado - big shoes to fill.

Carlos Gonzalez is a stud, making them a lethal 3-4-5 combo. Tulowitzki, if he stays healthy, will produce a ton, making this lineup a pitcher's bad dream, but add in a respectable .280 average from DJ LeMahieu and a growing Nolan Arenado, this is quickly turning into a pitcher's nightmare, especially in the thin air of Denver. The problem is, their pitching is as bad as their offense is good. Last year they had a team ERA of 4.44, last in the NL and 28th in the MLB. Sure they signed Brett Anderson and Boone Logan, but they still have career ERAs of 3.81 and 4.39, respectively. Not great additions for a place where the ball flies so easily. Other notable additions include Drew Stubbs, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brandon Barnes, to fill in the outfield and bullpen. They'll have to score an ungodly amount of runs to compete, and you know what they say: defense wins championships.

5. San Diego 70-92
Despite the offseason acquisitions of Joaquin Benoit

Benoit, coming off of a great year with Detroit, works out with his new team.

and Josh Johnson, the rotation needs some work. With starters of Eric Stults and Andrew Cashner, things won't be pretty this year. Cashner had a solid year, going 10-9 with a 3.09 ERA, but he has Chris Sale Syndrome: no offense! The 2013 Padres placed 24th in runs scored and 23rd in average in the MLB. Everth Cabrera will be back from his suspension and hopefully Seth Smith can minimize his strikeout totals as he adds some power to the spacious Petco Park. Last year, the Padres won 76 games, beating their pythagorean total by 4 games. Truthfully, I think 70 wins is generous, but we'll see. 

That's the divisions, folks. Thanks for sticking with me. Next week I'll be doing award and postseason predictions, oh boy! Have a great weekend.