The Future of Max Scherzer

The past two years, the Tigers have been beneficiaries of the best starting rotation in the American League, if not baseball. The wheels have fallen off the bus a little bit this year with Justin Verlander pushing an aggressive 12-12 record, Anibal Sanchez out with a strained pectoral muscle, and David Price allowing 8 runs two starts ago against the Yankees, an opponent whom he has faced numerous times when he was in the AL East with the Rays, and 5 against the Giants yesterday. Rick Porcello has stepped up big time this year, adding a cushion of confidence for the rotation, posting a 15-10 record with a 3.30 ERA. Through thick and thin for the past few years, the Tigers have been able to count on one man no matter what: Max Scherzer.

Scherzer, 2013's AL Cy Young winner, is 15-5 this year with a 3.25 ERA and arguably the hottest topic for free agency come winter. Oakland's Jon Lester is another highly touted free agent-to-be, but chances are he'll go back to Boston after the season. The difference between he and Scherzer, however, is a big one: Lester wasn't offered a six-year, $144 million contract in the offseason.

Scherzer was, and walked away from it. 

Scott Boras, Scherzer's agent, is known as a money hawk for his clients. General managers and team owners think he's a vulture, waiting patiently with his client until the right time to sign a mega-contract into the 4th dimension for more money than I even knew existed in America. For example: Boras also represents teammate Miguel Cabrera, who signed a record 8-year, $248 million extension before this year's Opening Day. 

I don't think Scherzer will be in a Tigers uniform after this season. Especially if they don't make the playoffs, I think he'll seek greener pastures (especially financially). The Tigers deal of 6-years, $144 million wasn't disrespectful like Robinson Cano's was (or so he says), but Scherzer wants a longer deal than that, but with Verlander signed through my wedding and birth of my first born, Sanchez signed for another 4 years, and most likely David Price as the newest addition of the long term rotation, the Tigers don't have room for another pitcher who is past his peak. Scherzer turned 30 this season and only time will tell how his arm will hold up, especially with his funky mechanics and heavily torqued elbow: 

Verlander is certainly past his prime (he still throws like a power pitcher despite maxing out at 92 MPH), and Sanchez has proven to be fragile and good for only 20-25 starts and fewer than 200 innings. Price is 29 and shows no signs of age but you don't want 4 pitchers 30 or older to anchor a rotation. 

Scherzer has been very consistent throughout his career in terms of hits and earned runs allowed, and I think as he ages, he'll adjust his pitching (more disappearing changeups) to match his slowing arm speed (Scherzer can max out at 98-99).

So where will he end up?

As a free agent, Scherzer can sign anywhere the heck he wants to go. There are no draft pick compensations, no players to be named later, no whatever else a team wants, he'll just sign there. Depending on the market, it will be for probably 7 years, maybe $170 million. If his contract cracks $200 million, I'll eat my hat.

There are a number of teams I can see him going to, first of which being the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs traded away Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel earlier this year to Oakland for Addison Russell, a middle infielder which they truthfully didn't need, but that left them in the lurch for starting pitching. Youngster Kyle Hendricks has been a bright spot for the Cubs since the departure of the two aforementioned hurlers going 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA in 10 starts, but the rest of the rotation leaves something to be desired. 

Cue Scherzer. The Cubs haven't had a Cy Young winning pitcher on their roster since 2006, but he was 40 years old and went 9-11. The Cubs haven't had a Cy Young winning pitcher since 1992 (I was 6 months old when that was awarded), and it was again, Greg Maddux. That's almost ten years without a Cy Young winner even on the roster, and more than 20 years without a Cy Young winner. That's why I think Scherzer could be their guy. Scherzer has ace stuff for any team in the league except for maybe the Dodgers, but with him at the helm, good things could happen. If the Cubs and GM Theo Epstein want to spend the money on him, they'll have the best prospect class (see my blog about the Cubs from last month), and an experienced stud of a veteran. The Cubs front office will typically choose to grow talent, but Scherzer talent is rare and difficult to grow (like starfruit). With him as an ace, Hendricks, and homegrown 3-4-5 starters, the Cubs could have a solid rotation. 

The Mets could also be compelling suitors. Matt Harvey showed promise back in 2013, when he went 9-5 with a 2.27 ERA before being shut down for 2014 with a torn UCL and Tommy John surgery. When he comes back, he'll be 26 and have to carry the team on his back. Bartolo Colon

Ladies. *tips cap*

will probably be back for another year, but he'll be 42 and still just as sweaty. Rookie phenom Jacob deGrom will be back for more as will underperforming prospect Zack Wheeler (9-9, 3.45, 1.314). Scherzer would play a similar role in the Big Apple as he would in the Windy City; ace arsenal with playoff/award experience that most of the rotation does not have. It would also be very cool to see the 2013 All-Star Game starters (Harvey and Scherzer) on the same roster. That hasn't happened since 1990 when Frank Viola and Dwight Gooden (starters of the 1987 All-Star Game) both pitched for: the Mets. It's fate.

I know my predictions have been off recently, so if you don't believe me, here is a Bleacher Report article about this exact topic. As a Tigers fan, if he doesn't come home, just get him out of the AL Central. 

Thanks for reading.