Thoughts on Stanton

As many of you already know, Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton was hit in the face by a pitch of a Michael Fiers fastball in the top of the 5th inning against the Brewers on Thursday. Stanton has been producing at an MVP caliber rate so far this year (see my post about the NL MVP race from last month), and that came to a grinding halt after this unfortunate turn of events. Stanton actually turned his body into it so much that it was called a strike, and pinch hitter Reed Johnson was hit on the hand the next pitch. The Marlins bench cleared, colorful examples of adult vocabulary were exchanged, but Michael Fiers did not hit Stanton on purpose. Here's why:

When you look at the big picture, the Marlins are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot. Even without last year's Rookie of the Year winner Jose Fernandez, the Marlins have fought valiantly to sit third in what has turned out to be a very weak NL East division. The Marlins, entering play today, are tied for third with the Mets, both 12 games back of the Nationals and a winning percentage of .486 (Miami has played 2 fewer games). While the Marlins have virtually nothing to lose being 6.5 games out of the second wild card, the Brewers are hanging on by a thread in their own playoff picture, 4 games back of St. Louis for first place in the NL Central and 1.5 games back of the second wild card spot. Keep in mind, Milwaukee was leading the division by 6.5 games to begin July and led by a game as August faded into September, so if they miss the playoffs, it would be a pretty big choke. They needed this game.

In this particular situation, Stanton was up with the bases loaded and two outs. Stanton is a .316 hitter with runners in scoring position this year - that's really good, but it gets even better: with two outs and runners in scoring position, his average jumps a healthy margin to .340 and a .620 slugging percentage. That said, Stanton was also only hitting .208 against Brewers pitching in 2014. Sure he's a great hitter in clutch situations, but there are two outs - beaning him would push a run across and keep the inning going for hit machine Casey McGehee, who is hitting .344 with two outs, .313 with runners in scoring position, and .295 with two outs and men in scoring position. You may avoid the game tying grand slam from Stanton, but then you have bases loaded again with a three run lead for McGehee, who has decent power to the alleys and could clear the bases, especially with Jeff Mathis (slow, but would score easily) on third, and speedsters Jordany Valdespin and Christian Yelich occupying the other two bags.

If the game situation isn't enough for you, just look at how Fiers was pitching this year. In 11 games, he is (now) 6-2 with a 1.84 ERA and a WHIP of .857. Those are great numbers, especially for a team that is struggling like the Brewers, whose offense virtually disappeared in the beginning of August on their way to a 9-game losing streak. They need good pitching while the offense regroups - why would Fiers put that in jeopardy?

Last but not least, just look at his reaction after Stanton falls down. 

"What have I done?"

It just wouldn't make sense for Fiers to bean Stanton intentionally.  The Brewers were up 4-0 and Fiers had Stanton on the ropes 0-2. Stanton has been known to be a free swinger, with a good slider or high cheese, he could swing right through it and the inning would be over. Fiers is a 29 year old veteran who knows better, and knows baseball well enough to go right for the head if you're aiming intentionally. You go for the back, like Cole Hamels did on Bryce Harper back when Harper was a rookie (kids, you didn't hear that from me). The Brewers needed that win.

While Stanton's season is likely over, so is the Marlins'. They were flirting with a playoff spot and like I said earlier, have nothing to lose. They already overcame most expectations of this season; I didn't think they'd be anywhere near .500, and when you take Fernandez away, I wasn't expecting them to get 65 wins. They have a shot at 80 wins this year, a huge improvement from last year and a sign to come that the Fish could be serious contenders in the future. 

Marlins manager Mike Redmond said in a postgame interview "we lost our MVP." In my mind, so did the NL. Stanton's 37 home runs, 94 walks, .555 slugging, .950 OPS, and 105 RBIs all lead the National League now that Troy Tulowitzki is sidelined for the remainder of 2014. Stanton's RBI total is first in the majors, tied with Angels outfielder Mike Trout. There is doubt in my mind that the Marlins success is directly proportional to Stanton's and that without him, they wouldn't even be in contention.

Kershaw has been lights out in LA this year, but if you take him off that team, I think they are still in the playoffs. Kershaw leads the league in wins, ERA, WHIP, etc. But look at his value to the Dodgers. The award would have been Stanton's but now that he is gone, I believe it is all Kershaw's. But I could be wrong.

Let's hope Stanton heals quickly and that he'll continue mashing next year. 

Thanks for reading.