Spring Training Recap

So who missed me?

**crowd goes wild**

That's what I thought. Thank you, thank you. We got in from Lakeland late last night to the dreary Holland snowy weather. If nothing else, it was nice just to be in warmth for a few days - I'll take 75 and sunny over 6 months of winter any day. Here's my recap of the games we say:

Game 1: Tigers 14, Astros 3

The predictions about the Astros were true as of March 16. After the 2nd inning, the Tigers were up 10-0. Lucas Harrell got pounded, giving up a home run to Ian Kinsler and hobbled home with 9 earned runs (10 total) on 12 hits in 1.2 to suffer an ERA implosion of 10.13. Currently while I am writing this though, he has pitched 4 scoreless innings - so I'm glad to see he's recovered. On the other side, Scherzer (whom we saw at dinner on Tuesday night) pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowing three runs on some very hard hit balls in the gaps. In a postgame interview he said he was not entirely happy with the start but he did not walk anyone - very good for a strikeout pitcher. After Scherzer, pitchers Blaine Hardy, Ian Krol, Jhan Martinez, and Luke Putkonen all pitched scoreless innings to keep the Astros to 3 runs. Torii Hunter stayed scalding hot, going 2 for 3 with a double, sending his average up to .367 for the spring. Tigers outfielder Tyler Collins continued to turn heads, ending the game a double short of the cycle. Also, I am making the conclusion that Astros first round pick Carlos Correa is just like Starlin Castro: amazingly smooth fielder, but a lengthy swing will create some offensive stagnation in the future. 

Game 2: Tigers 2, Nationals 1

Boy what a thriller - even for Spring Training. The Nationals' stadium, Space Coast Stadium, is really cool. Despite there being a strong lack of shade and a visible speedometer for the fans to witness how fast Verlander was throwing, it's a nice place. 

The game itself was exciting. We got there late and couldn't witness the first Tigers run, but got to witness Verlander mow down the Nationals, giving up one hit (to Zimmerman in his last inning of work) and threw fewer than 50 pitches to 16 batters. Incredible efficiency for his first start coming off of oblique surgery, solidifying manager Ausmus' choice to name him the Opening Day starter. The Nationals scored a run on an Evan Reed passed ball, and the game was locked 1-1 for another few innings until Danny Worth laced a double down the left field line, his fourth of the spring, scoring Steve Lombardozzi who had just stolen 2nd and 3rd consecutively against his former team. While it was a nice pitchers duel, the Nationals only collected three hits the whole game (never in the same inning) and struggled to even push a runner past second, confirming my fear that they live and die by the long ball. Similarly, the Tigers RISP woes continue from last year against good pitching, going 1-11 the game. Granted, a lot of the guys playing late will be AA or AAA players but the point rings true. We'll be seeing both of them in October, regardless. The pitching was incredibly high quality. Important note: Don Kelly got an RBI. 

Game 3: Tigers vs. Nationals, cancelled

Though this game was rained out, the Nats took batting practice maybe 30 feet away from where we parked, necessitating these photos: 

Aside from the skies looking ominous, I really enjoyed getting this close to some of the players. Tyler Clippard looks exactly like one of my English professors and Jamey Carroll is a great fielder. The ageless wonder.

Game 4: Tigers 18, Blue Jays 4 (SS) 

Yes, you read that correctly. I was pumped to see the Jays because when you think about it, with a lineup of Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista, Lind, Rasmus, Izturis, they can do some serious damage. Though they did not do any damage today. Tigers starter Drew Smyly had an incredibly efficient 5 innings of work, walking one, allowing two hits, and striking out three. Smyly is growing into his craftiness, finding a comfortable array of offspeed pitches to complement his respectable fastball. Jays starter Ricky Romero had serious control issues, walking 5 batters in 2 2/3 innings of work and allowing an opposite field home run to Austin Jackson (who is also scalding hot this spring). The real woes came in the 5th inning, when Marcus Stroman came in and allowed 7 runs while only getting a single out. Marcus Walden came in to mop it up but apparently did bring a good enough mop, allowing 5 runs himself. I guess they really dislike pitchers named Marcus. The Tigers scored in 6 out of their 8 offensive innings, collecting 17 hits (and walked 11 times) - and they still left 7 men on base. The best part of this game, hands down, is the Don Kelly grand salami in the fifth. I don't think I've ever lost my voice faster than that.  

This game confirmed my suspicions about the Jays - great offense, but bad pitching. Short of Mark Buehrle and RA Dickey, they are stretched thin. Through 19 Spring Training games, they have scored 80 runs (26th in MLB), and have allowed 105 (8th worst) with a team ERA of 5.73 (4th worst). In the AL East, that won't fly. Their only runs came off of a shaky Blaine Hardy 6th inning. 

This was such a fun trip. Not just because of the weather or three Tigers wins, but because of how exciting it is to see that baseball is back and I got a job interview tomorrow! Wish me luck! 

Thanks for reading, folks! The regular season is right around the corner! 

PS - We saw the Lego Movie on Monday when the game was rained out. Do yourself a favor and go see it - I was in stitches. 

2014 Predictions: AL East

With Spring Training in full swing now (pun-alicious), I think now is good of a time as ever to give my predictions for the upcoming season. This will encompass everything from team records, finishes, playoff brackets, and award winners. Last year at the All-Star break, I predicted Red Sox over Cardinals in 7 games in the World Series, Red Sox over Tigers in 6, Cardinals over Braves in 5. I was better in the AL than NL but I'm still proud of how close I was.

So here we go!

1. Boston 100-62

The defending champs are in a position to do exactly that: defend their championship. Many are picking Xander Bogaerts as the AL ROY as he takes over on the infield for the Sox. Though Ryan Dempster announced that he will not pitch in 2014, their rotation will still be tough to beat. Buchholz will be healthy, and Lester will be classic flamethrowing Lester. Napoli and Papi will be back, but they lost Ellsbury and Saltalamacchia. They did add veteran winners Grady Sizemore and AJ Pierzynski; Sizemore's health is always a huge if, but he could be an excellent coach for Jackie Bradley, Jr. The signing of Mike Carp (.296/.362/.523 in 86 games) will also be a great 4th/5th outfielder. 

2. Tampa Bay 93-69

This was a tough pick over the star studded Yankees, but I think they are better managed. Reigning ROY Wil Myers will patrol the outfield and have a .300/25/100 season, David DeJesus will supply great speed and get on base for a team that is foreign to stealing. David Price, my Cy Young pick if he stays healthy, is going into a contract year and will undoubtedly go back to his old self, much of what we saw late in 2013. Chris Archer will settle in nicely as a 3rd starter and Grant Balfour will calm many nerves that Rodney frayed during his stay.

3. New York 91-71

Arguably the most active this offseason on the free agent market, signing Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, and Masahiro Tanaka. They also are getting back Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia from annoying and nagging injuries that kept them sidelined. A-Rod is out of the picture now, so the team can focus on the field and not the clubhouse. They will be back to the Bronx Bombers we know and love to hate, but I don't think we'll see them past the play-in game. Here's why: they lost not only a closer, but the best closer ever and their only answer right now is David Robertson. I'm not putting a lot of stock in Tanaka yet, I'm guessing he'll be about where Yu Darvish is down the road, but his first year will be good not great. They have a lot of stars, but that's it - not a lot of good role players for backup. 

4. Baltimore 82-80

Though they are well managed behind Buck Showalter, the rotation is an area of concern. Though Chris Tillman had an All-Star season, how much can the rest of them hold up? Similarly, the bullpen is another worry. I know Jim Johnson had a down year compared to 2012, but now he is all the way across the country in Oakland which will do them no good. Balfour's physical fiasco held them up from getting a solid closer so when it comes ninth inning they'll be throwing question marks. Their offense is second to none, with Hardy, Machado, Weiters, Davis, and Jones, and I reckon that will be the source for most of their wins. Earl Weaver said the key to winning baseball was pitching, defense and the three-run home run. Seems like Showalter follows suit. 

5. Toronto 72-90

The Jays are not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination but because they play in the vicious AL East, I do not have high expectations. Josh Johnson and JP Arencibia left for warmer weather, Rajai Davis left for a similar climate but a different division, and Emilio Bonifacio is now in the Windy City. A lot of folks left, but they will also have the Joses healthy, Reyes and Bautista. Colby Rasmus is a solid player coming into his own, but unfortunately, I don't think the Jays will be competing this year. 

Player to watch: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

Comeback player of the year: Derek Jeter, NYY

Thanks for reading! Next post will be the AL Central. Take it easy folks.

Roy Halladay, Pt. 2

With yesterday's post about Roy Halladay completed, I'll take a step back from that one awesome game in the 1998 season to examine his entire career and determine whether or not he will be in the Hall of Fame. Let's take a dive into it, shall we?

For the better part of his career, Halladay was known as a workhorse. In fact, one of the most impressive stats in his favor are complete games and shutouts. In an era of specific pitching skills and closely monitored pitch counts, shutouts are becoming a thing of the past. With the rise of the closer and set-up roles, pitchers are only asked to go six or seven innings. Going 9 innings is a rare feat and something to be celebrated, as opposed to a hundred years ago when if a pitcher did not go 9 innings, the start must have been really, really bad. Throughout his 16 year career, Halladay averaged 33 starts a year. If you do the math, out of 162 games, that's roughly a start every fifth day, so his durability was something of a hidden gem in addition to wicked control and a relatively new pitch (cutter) to the game. What's more impressive, though, is how many innings he would throw in a season and still be performing at a high level year in and year out. He was in the top 10 in innings pitched in 8 separate seasons, with a career high of 266. Similarly, he was in the top 10 in batters faced in 8 separate seasons. 

That's pretty good. This is even better: Halladay was in the top 10 10 times in complete games, 6 of those seasons he was first or second. 5 of those came at age 30 or later! Okay durability is one thing, but to go that late and be dominant is another. He had 4 seasons in the top 10 ranks of shutouts, including back to back #1s at age 32 and 33. Going the distance is awesome. Holding the opponent scoreless is also impressive. Combining the two made him a fearsome competitor. The only way to get to him was small ball and pray a ball finds a hole, because runners rarely stole and he rarely gave up home runs. 

Excluding his last two seasons, which were uncharacteristically sloppy, his career ERA was 3.23. He racked up 203 wins and only 105 losses. He rarely walked any batters (his strikeout to walk ratio led the league 5 times, with a career high of 7.30). 

Stats are great, but let's look at the big picture. He won two Cy Youngs, one in each league (one of only 5 pitchers ever to do so - Gaylord Perry, Pedro, Johnson, Clemens). He also finished in the top five in voting five other times (runner up twice). He was selected to 8 All-Star teams (6 AL, 2 NL). Another stat that I find particularly interesting is that he was the Opening Day starter for 10 straight seasons, 2003-2012. Had it not been for an injury plagued offseason between '12 and '13, he may have added one more.

He also threw two no-hitters (both in 2010, one of which was in the playoffs), just adding to the fact that he was a solid pitcher late in his career.

Now, that said, he never won a ring. Some of that could be blamed on playing in the best division in the game for the first 12 years of his career. The AL East, featuring the Yankees and Red Sox, and more recently, the Rays and O's, almost always sent two teams to the playoffs in the archaic 4-team format. During Halladay's tenure in Toronto, there were only three years in which the AL East did not send two teams to the postseason (some combination of Yankees, Red Sox, Rays). He did not have the supporting cast around him to make it happen - that's not a slight at the early millennial Jays, that's just a fact. When he switched to the NL, however, the Phillies made it to the NLCS in 2010, losing to Giants, and lost to the Cardinals in the NLDS in 2011. He does not have extensive postseason experience (3-2, 2.37 ERA with a no-no), but he was equipped with a better team around him to go the distance. 

He also gave up his fair share of hits throughout his career. While his strikeout to walk ratio and home runs per nine were awesome, his hits per nine was not. The average for his career was 8.7 and sometimes inflated as high as 14.2 for a season. He allowed over 200 hits every single time he pitched over 200 innings; his worst season (in terms of hits) suffered 253 hits. That was also his first Cy Young winning season. I'm not quite sure what to think.

I'd give him the nod if I had a vote. Pitching in the AL East, its impressive that he only had one losing season. Then switching to the NL East with the powerful Braves and rising Nats, again he only had one losing season (2013 in which his shoulder just said 'no more, Roy'). I think seeing pitchers this durable is so rare anymore, and for that reason I think he deserves to be remembered forever. 

So congrats, Harry Leroy Halladay, you have the approval of a 21-year old independent baseball blogger (woo!).

Thanks for reading, folks. Enjoy the heat wave.

Roy Halladay, Pt. 1

When Roy Halladay announced his retirement last fall, being the huge baseball fan that I am, I went directly to his Baseball Reference page, curious to see if he had the credentials to make it into the Hall of Fame. We'll get to that in a little bit but for now I want to highlight a special game in his pre-rookie season. We probably all remember Halladay for having inhuman stamina, rarely missing the strike zone, and even more rarely missing a start. But the way he kicked off his career should not be forgotten.

September 27, 1998, the 162nd game of the season. The Tigers entered the game 65-97, miles away from playoff contention, as were the Blue Jays. They entered the game 88-74, which is quite good and would have been good enough for a half game out of first in the Central, and tied for first in the West. However, since the Yankees went off for 114 wins, the poor Jays good season was for naught, putting them in third in the East. At this point in the season, both teams had nothing to lose, so the Jays decided to bring up 21-year old Denver native named Roy Halladay (I assume hundreds of people called him Holiday by mistake for a year or two). Halladay's Major League debut was good, not great, pitching five innings against the Devil Rays, giving up 8 hits and 2 earned runs. It was his second career start that set the pace for his workhorse of a career.

It was a sunny Sunday afternoon at 78 degrees in Toronto, actually a record warm for this late in the year. 38,000 fans filed into the Rogers Centre to see the finale of the 1998 campaign against the international rival Detroit Tigers. Doc began the game smoothly, striking out two of the first three batters, likely from his nasty cutter. On the other side of the ball, Tigers starter Justin Thompson also had a relatively smooth inning, walking leadoff man Shannon Stewart and then retiring the next three. The subsequent innings showed that Halladay meant business in the game of baseball. The top of second brought the heart of the Tigers order: Tony "Tall Glass of Water" Clark, Luis Gonzalez, and slugging Robert Fick. Two easy groundouts, and a strikeout looking on only 8 pitches. 

The rest of the start was much like the first two innings. Halladay was so dominant, he only had one 3-ball count. In fact, out of 29 batters faced, only six of them had an at-bat long enough to get to ball 2. Only three innings required more than 10 pitches to retire the Tigers. 

All in all, he racked up 8 strikeouts, 5 swinging, 95 pitches, 0 walks, and one hit.

It is that one hit that would prevent Halladay from achieving history. At 21 years and 4 months, he would have been the second youngest pitcher to throw a no-hitter in American League history, second to Vida Blue. He would have joined Bobo Holloman and Wilson Alvarez to be the only pitchers throw a no-hitter in his first two starts (Clay Buchholz would join that group in 2007).

It wasn't just any hit. It wasn't a third inning line drive. It wasn't a sixth inning bloop that would draw some disappointment from the more attentive fans. It wasn't an eighth inning bunt that would draw booing and jeering from the Toronto faithful. Oh no, it was an absolute dagger that resulted in sheer anger and exasperation: a ninth inning, two out, opposite field home run. 

In the top of the fourth inning, Jays second basemen Craig Grebeck was taken from the game and replaced with Felipe Crespo. Crespo botched the very first ground ball he saw, allowing Clark to reach first on his error. Had Crespo fielded this ball cleanly, Halladay would have had a bid at a perfect game going into the ninth. Instead, he had to settle for a no-hit bid. Ho hum.

Halladay was not phased; he struck out five more batters and allowed only two balls out of the infield from the 4th to the 9th innings. 

At this point late in the game, Halladay took the mound only three outs from history. The Tigers had 8-9-1 coming up to try to stave off the embarrassment of a no-hitter. Gabe Kapler lined out sharply to left fielder Shannon Stewart to lead off the inning.

One down.

Paul Bako, pinch hitting for the smiley and young Deivi Cruz, weakly grounded to second after a relatively respectable at-bat (he was one of the few to work a 2-ball count). 

Two out, and one more relatively easy out in Kimera Bartee who had already struck out twice and was only hitting .194 on the season. 

Manager Larry Parrish, grasping at straws for any type of offense, then called on Bobby Higginson to pinch hit for center fielder Bartee. Higginson was having a solid season, batting .284 with 24 home runs to this point. He had never faced this young stud in Halladay. None of the Tigers had, and boy did it show.

The lightly goateed slugger toed the plate and calmly served the first pitch he saw to the left field bleachers. All 38,000 fans at the Rogers Centre assumably sat down in disbelief that this kid had just been robbed of a golden opportunity to assert himself as one of the best rookie performances in history. 

I have scoured the internet to find any hint at how he reacted. The New York Times merely says the rookie pitcher was one out away from history. The free Detroit Free Press archives do not go back far enough to include this game. Similarly, the Detroit News archives begin January 1, 1999. In a postgame interview, the Toronto Star reported Halladay saying "I'm going to feel that there's a lot of pressure next year, probably some more expectations." Did he throw his glove down in disgust? Did he shake his head out of incredulousness or upset that he threw a bad pitch? Did he curse into his glove? Probably not, Halladay is a classy guy. But as a 21-year old, who knows. 

Knowing him, he probably shook his head, asked for a new ball from home plate umpire Jim McKean, and threw his nastiest pitch of the afternoon to nail Frank Catalanotto, who lined out to short on the next pitch to end the game. The game took only an hour and forty-five minutes. 

Jays 2, Tigers 1. Halladay's one mistake and Higginson's 379 foot rocket cost him a place in history. 

As always, thanks for reading. I'll do another post in the near future about his Hall of Fame credentials and why he was the last of a dying breed.