Scouting the Free Agents

Happy no-shave November! Or for me, no different November. Baseball has sadly come and gone for another year and it brought us a lot of good memories but at the same time left a lot of us banging our heads against a wall. Either way, we've already started to see glimpses of teams making moves for next year, for example the Blue Jays picked up Tigers OF Andy Dirks off of waivers and the Red Sox declined to give RHP Craig Breslow his qualifying offer, showing us that at least these two teams will have a different outcome.

To piggyback my two previous posts about which team will be the most active, I will follow it up with the individual top free agents. Yesterday, MLB Trade Rumors (great site) posted the top 50 free agents and their predictions for where they will go. I think they are much more credible than I am given how wrong I always am about nearly everything (My World Series prediction, my preseason predictions, my All-Star Starters, my award winning predictions, etc), BUT that doesn't mean I have a say too. I'll list the player, the MLB Trade Rumor prediction, and then my own prediction for the top 10. If I were to do top 50 I would be here until my beard grows.

1. Max Scherzer; their prediction: Yankees, mine: Braves
If you've read my previous post about the Braves offseason activity, then you already know this prediction. Scherzer is coming off of back to back career years, including a Cy Young in 2013 and tied for the AL lead in wins in 2014. He turned down the Tigers offer of 6yr/$144 million before the season started holding out not for more money but for a longer deal. At age 30 (31 in July), if Scherzer signs a deal longer than 6 years it will mean whoever signs him will have him for the rest of his career unless he goes fine wine on us and improves after the age of 40. Atlanta was weak for pitching last year. Between Teheran, Harang, Santana, Minor, and Wood, the Braves did okay in 2014. But that's the problem, they were just okay. I don't think a team that has 14 straight divisional titles recently will settle for okay. Now the Braves aren't known for signing big name players; other than the Upton brothers in the outfield, almost everyone on their roster has come from the farm system, not free agency signing. But with the new stadium coming in 2017 and a subpar 2014, I think the Braves are in for a big name if they want to compete with the Nationals rotation in the East. Scherzer would fit well in Atlanta. Being a strikeout pitcher, he will throw lots of pitches early in the game and then rely on the bullpen to close out the game. If he wants a good bullpen, then Atlanta is the place to go. With Johnny Venters coming back from Tommy John and Craig Kimbrel taking Mo's place as the best closer in the game, then he won't need to put pressure on himself to throw 8 innings every start. While Atlanta is not known for spending, I think they are due for a splurge. This is where their money should go. As badly as the Tigers would like him back, I think they'll focus their efforts on Victor Martinez and pray that Scherzer doesn't sign with an AL Central team.

2. Jon Lester; their prediction: Cubs; mine: Red Sox
I can totally see the Cubs picking up Lester with his connection to Theo Epstein, but Lester absolutely loves Boston. It was visibly obvious in his interviews and press conferences after being traded that he was bummed about leaving Boston for Oakland. He didn't blame Boston for the trade but at the same time he left the door open to returning. His family did put their house up for sale, but that isn't to say that a multimillionaire can't buy another one fairly easily. The Red Sox brought Lester two World Series championships, something that the Cubs won't get him until at least 2018 when he's 34. He's been their number one for the last number of years and since the Sox also traded away John Lackey, Felix Doubront, and Jake Peavy, do you really think they'll be okay with Rubby De la Rosa as their number 3 starter behind Buchholz and Joe Kelly? Not at all. Not only would Boston be a homecoming for Lester but he would also bring their sinking rotation afloat again. The Sox have holes to fill if they want to be competitive in 2015, and if Lester doesn't come home, then starting pitching could be their biggest.

3. James Shields; their prediction: Red Sox; mine: Cubs
This is groundbreaking news: James Shields is not as good as everyone thinks he is. Although he has earned the nickname Big Game James and I almost threw a perfect game with him in The Show (the video game), day-to-day Shields is far overrated. His 3.72 career ERA and 1.220 career WHIP are middle of the road as far as I'm concerned, and he was number one in Kansas City that relied not on starting pitching, but relief, to get them the 2014 pennant. His best years and only All-Star appearance came when he was in Tampa Bay with Joe Maddon as his manager.
And click, you get it. Maddon will be the newest Cubs manager in 2015 and this new school free thinking template is great, but how will it translate to a group of young Cubans? We have no idea, but if Maddon has Shields, a leader off the field, on his side in the clubhouse, then it could unite a bunch of young sparkplugs into a very serious force for 2015. Like I said, the Cubs won't win a World Series in 2015, but 2018, 2019? Very possible. I think Shields could lead the way as their number one with his original manager in the Windy City. Like Lester going home to Boston, Shields would be going home (theoretically) to his mentor in Joe Maddon.

4. Hanley Ramirez; their prediction; Yankees; mine: Mariners
Ramirez is a character. He burned his bridge with the Marlins by not hustling, giving the manager attitude, and a variety of other things. Then he went to LA where that attitude was shadowed by Yasiel Puig's even bigger attitude and he kind of faded away just to play baseball. Trade Rumors has Hanley to be the Yankees next starting shortstop, which would make sense because he could have crazy home run power in Yankee Stadiym but I don't think he would mesh well with manager Joe Girardi. The Yankees make their players cut their hair and beards and don't allow jewelry or anything else loud to detract from the pinstripes.

Basically the opposite of this.


The Yankees fans and ownership would not fly with this type of outlandishness, nor would they stand for his horrible defense - last year his fielding percentage was .961. At age 30, I doubt we'll see Hanley hit .342 again like he did in 2009 with the Marlins, but he is still a career .300 hitter with good shortstop power. Who does that sound like? Robinson Cano. The Mariners have shown that they are willing to spend to win, signing Cano last season as well as Corey Hart and Fernando Rodney. However, the M's shortstop last year, Brad Miller, only hit .221. They also have an aging Willie Bloomquist and a young Chris Taylor, but why not pair your star second basemen with a fellow countrymen in Hanley Ramirez? They'll be flashy bearded stars together rather than playing under the restrictions of the Steinbrenners at Yankee Stadium. The Mariners were one win away from the postseason, and I bet a shortstop who can hit .300 will help that. The Dodgers will be fine, Dee Gordon can play short or if he stays at second, Justin Turner will get his chance to start at short. He's shown that he can really play well.

5. Pablo Sandoval; their prediction: Giants; mine: Giants
Sandoval and Posey are becoming postseason staples for what is now a Giants dynasty. Winning 3 of the last 5 World Series, Sandoval has had average regular season but absolutely lit fire in the postseason. This year he set a franchise record for postseason hits with 26 and in 2012 he hit 3 homers in game 1 of the World Series. He has a career .344 postseason batting average and a .426 World Series average. That's ridiculous considering he hit .268, .283, and .279 in their three championship years. If he went anywhere else, the Panda-ness would be lost.


Pandamonium: Giants fans follow Sandoval with their Kung Fu Panda masks.

It just doesn't make sense for him to leave the dynasty like Pujols did in 2011. Oh, and he was quoted during the parade that he wants to come back to San Francisco.

6. Victor Martinez; their prediction: White Sox; mine: Tigers
There's no way the Tigers will let both Scherzer and Martinez walk away. One will, but not both. The White Sox have made it abundantly clear that they will pursue VMart under any circumstance and cost, and the Tigers should follow suit because A) he hits behind the best hitter in the game whereas he'll follow Connor Gillaspie in Chicago, B) he has great protection in JD Martinez whereas Jose Abreu would follow him in Chicago, and C) the Tigers are so much closer to a ring than the Sox are. Sorry Sox fans, that is just a fact. After an MVP caliber season of .335/.409 (led AL)/.565 and 32 home runs and 103 RBIs, the Tigers better have ideas to snag every slugger on the market if they let Victor go. The Tigers did extend Martinez a qualifying offer on Friday, so we'll wait and see if he accepts it. At age 35 (turning 36 in December), age is certainly an issue considering he can only DH and barely function at first when he plays in NL parks. Sure he'll fit great, but I think the Tigers are just too competitive and Dombrowski is too smart to let this talent walk, even if he doesn't get the 4 year deal he wants.

7. Melky Cabrera; their prediction: Blue Jays; mine: Blue Jays
I agree with trade rumors on this one. The Jays were everyone's favorite surprise in 2014 until 1B/DH slugger Edwin Incarnation broke his hand and then his replacement Adam Lind suffered similar fates with back injuries throughout the year. The Blue Jays were as good as their big names, and when Incarnation went down, Cabrera and Bautista carried the team. When Cabrera too went down late in the year, Bautista was left to his own accord to carry the team, which resulted in a 2nd half slowdown, when they went 34-32 after a 38-24 start. With a lineup of Reyes, Cabrera, Encarnacion, and Bautista, the Blue Jays could do some serious damage as long as they are healthy. Losing Cabrera makes them simply a vicious double play machine waiting to happen. Like the Tigers with Martinez, the Jays would be foolish to let Cabrera go elsewhere.

8. Russell Martin; their prediction: Cubs; mine: White Sox or Pirates
Russell Martin is a box of chocolates. He's a career .259 hitter but he's had 3 All-Star appearances, and has had years of .293 and .290 but also years of .226 and .211. What's consistent is his great defense. I mentioned in an earlier post that I think the Red Sox will pick up Soto, who is an extreme case of all defense and no offense. It would make sense for  Martin to go to the Sox as well, but I don't see that happening in the budget if they sign Lester for a long deal. The White Sox have a good starting staff with Chris Sale (everyone knows Chris Sale and all hitters know Chris Sale's slider) and Jose Quintana, but after that, it gets weak. I think if they were to have a veteran, Gold Glove winning catcher who has been on playoff teams, he would act as a positive leader for the young pitchers and create a better defensive experience on the South Side. He's already done that with the Pirates, taking youngsters like Gerrit Cole and Jeff Locke to create great starters. On a larger level, the Pirates starting staff had a 3.42 ERA and the entire pitching staff had a 3.49 ERA, good for 5th in the NL. I think he'll either stay in Pittsburgh and continue building on the McCutchen momentum, or to Chicago where he can start a new project with another raw pitching staff.

9. Nelson Cruz; their prediction: Orioles; mine: Angels
The reigning MLB home run king will be a highly sought after product - in the AL. Cruz has proven that fielding is not his strong suit (just ask the 2011 World Series) so he'll be much more attractive to AL teams. After such a great season, Cruz will be looking for a lucrative deal and I think the Angels will be the team to do it. They poached Pujols from the Cardinals in 2011, Hamilton from the Rangers in 2012, and Freese from the Cardinals in 2013. They have a systematic way of pulling stars from their previous teams, and I think they were a DH away from a deep playoff run. CJ Cron, the acting Angels DH, went 1-9 with 4 strikeouts in the ALDS sweep, after hitting .256 in the regular season. Cruz, however, hit .500 with 2 home runs in the ALDS and .250 with 2 RBIs in the ALCS sweep. If the Angels were to sign Cruz, their lineup would read: Kendrick, Trout, Pujols, Cruz, Hamilton, Freese, Calhoun, Aybar, Ianetta - are you kidding me? That's terror top to bottom for any pitcher. And Hank Conger (PandaCrusher35 on Instagram) off the bench. Wow. 

10. Yasmany Tomas; their prediction: Phillies; mine: Phillies or Yankees
Tomas is another one of these Cuban beasts who is 8 feet tall and 350 pounds of muscle who can run a 6.2 60-yard dash and a 3.5 to first. That's obviously hyperbole but the Cubans are absolutely crazy athletes, and Tomas, the most recent defector-turned-free-agent is no different. Think Cespedes arm, Iglesias glove, Abreu bat, Puig recklessness and you have Yasmany Tomas, 23-year old outfielder. The Cubans have proved that they are basically bust proof; it is incredibly rare if a Cuban comes to play in America and does not pan out. Now that said, where Tomas will land is a brain teaser. Small markets have made splashes in signing the imports, like Abreu in Chicago and Cespedes in Oakland, but then there have also been the monsters signing foreigners like Puig and the Dodgers, Rusney Castillo and the Red Sox, so don't count anyone out. That's why the Phillies make sense. Their outfield last year was Domonic Brown (.235), Ben Revere (.306), and Marlon Byrd (.264), and even though Brown and Revere are arbitration eligible, I can't imagine the Phillies only holding onto Byrd and hoping Tomas will do the job. They already signed Grady Sizemore for an extension, but staying healthy will be a different story line. That's why I think the Yankees make sense. They signed an aging Carlos Beltran in 2013 and he spent most of 2014 on the DL. At age 37 (38 next April), Beltran is near the end of his string and won't be playing much right field. The same goes for Ichiro, who, at age 40 still could play good right field, but Tomas, who will be 24 next season, could learn a lot from Ichiro and take over his right field spot a few years down the road. After all, the Yankees bought Tanaka for $200 million last December. It could happen again.

Thank you for reading this marathon of a post. If you have other ideas or input about the top free agents, feel free to comment below. I'd gladly look into it. I hope you all had a great Halloween!

Oscar Taveras

I don't need to be the one to tell you that life is fragile. 

Oscar Taveras, 22-year old outfielder for the St. Louis Cardinals, was killed in a car accident with his girlfriend in Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, his hometown. His agent confirmed the tragedy late last night and the news spread like wildfire even on to the biggest stage.

Taveras saw spurts of action in 2014 and was expected to make a run for one of the starting outfield spots on the 2015 roster. He was an impressive combination of speed and power that made tracking fly balls easy and hitting home runs even easier. Here's an example of Taveras' skill in the NLCS, when he hit a clutch moonshot to right to tie the game at 3 in the 7th. That at-bat was his last Major League action. 

Taveras was born June 19, 1992. One month younger than me to the date. To begin the season, he was ranked as the #3 prospect across the board (MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus), and to be honest, I had him as my 2014 NL Rookie of the Year. I thought he would get more playing time this year; I even drafted him in fantasy baseball thinking he would be a mid-May call-up and have a Puig like effect on the game. 

It's kind of creepy thinking about that knowing what we know now. 

I wrote a post a few weeks ago about Derek Jeter's last at-bat and the end of Tiger Stadium and how it was such a poetic ending and how sports are such redeeming moments in our eyes. But what about this? How does this make any sense? How can there be a reason for an incredibly talented 22 year old kid to be taken in such a violent fashion so soon? Sports are something we can get lost in, forget the woes of our daily lives and believe in something bigger than ourselves; but what happens when the woes of sports creep into our daily lives? I guess this is poetic too, but rather than Whitman writing this story, it's Dickinson. 

This past weekend was a series of rivalry games for my fandom. Michigan and Michigan State squared off on the gridiron, and I watched intently and hopefully, only to see Michigan take a 35-11 drubbing and leave the fields to chants of "little sister." Chelsea, my favorite English football club, faced the hated Manchester United in a matchup of EPL giants and again, I was drawn into the simplicity of the game only to see Chelsea concede a 94th minute goal off of a questionable free kick to end the game in a painful draw.

My teams didn't win. They broke my heart, even, considering it was a rivalry weekend. But what happened to Taveras doesn't even come close. And what really shook me was how baseball characters put their lives on hold to bid another one goodbye, specifically the Cardinals' biggest rival. The Cubs and Cardinals have hated each other for as long as either one was a franchise, but they put all that aside Sunday night to pause and recognize the tragedy that had just occurred. 

At work this morning, I complained about how my teams let me down. But then I paused and kicked myself for saying that because I didn't lose anyone close to me.

Giants outfielder Juan Perez, though 5 years older than Taveras, is from the Dominican Republic along with Taveras. The two had played on some younger teams together and Perez took the loss very hard. In the middle of the 5th inning, Perez wandered down the dugout towards where Fox broadcaster Erin Andrews was stationed.

His eye caught her prompter and saw the word "Taveras" which was odd considering the Giants had defeated the Cardinals a few weeks ago to advance to this very World Series. 

What happened next is heartbreaking. Perez watched in horror as he saw the death of a close friend develop before his very eyes. Can you imagine finding out that way? Not through a friend or family member or hospital official - but on a broadcasting monitor on the other end of the dugout. 

You'll see Taveras in the white, second from the left. Perez is the lone Giant facing the camera.

Jorge Ortiz of USA Today writes more here.

The same thing happened to Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart in the 2009 season. Adenhart pitched in a single game in April of 2009, allowing 7 hits over 6 shutout innings against the A's. The following night, Adenhart and two others were struck by a drunk driver and killed on impact, ending the hopeful career of a 22-year old pitcher who had overcome major elbow surgery to just get to the big stage. The Angels' finished the year with his jersey hanging in their dugout 

and celebrated mightily when they clinched the AL West crown. 

I'm guessing the Cardinals will do something similar, whether it be a jersey patch or an outfield pad, or a jersey in the dugout. Adenhart or Taveras, it doesn't make it any easier to swallow. I think now that I'm actually 22 and the same age as they both were when they passed wakes me up a little bit, forcing me hang my head in mourning but also thankful that I have never lost anyone close in my life. 

I'm not writing this to tell you to appreciate every breath or take life one step at a time or any other YOLO-esque cliche, because you probably have enough of those crocheted into a throw pillow. I'm just trying to tell you that even while sports are so great because of stories like Jeter and Tiger Stadium, it also is that much harder because of the emotional investment we have. Very few of us probably ever met Oscar Taveras let alone knew him, so why are we so sad about this? It's because of his potential and what could have been. It's because it just doesn't seem fair that such a rare physical specimen is gone in the blink of an eye. It's because for the sorrow that a loss brings, a win can be mean so much more than beating your rival.

Remember Juan Perez, the poor guy that found out he lost a friend over a TV monitor? He slapped a two run double three innings later off of the best AL reliever this season. 

I can only imagine what Perez felt after that hit. 

And again, I can only imagine what the Taveras family is going through right now. 

Thanks for reading. And please, if you will, keep Taveras, his family, and the Cardinals in your thoughts. 

2014 Postseason, Part II

Well I'm a day late on my promise of delivering the NL Offseason busy body, but hey the World Series was on last night. I had a date with good baseball, can you blame me? No, I didn't think so.

Either way, I'll be getting to it right now. With Joe Maddon now on the market as the top 'free agent' manager, it will be interesting to see how some teams shape their offseason pickups around their managerial search. For example, if Minnesota signs Joe Maddon, he could be bringing Ben Zobrist with him and push Trevor Plouffe to left to replace Josh Willingham. This is all conjecture, but there are numerous situations where I can see Maddon signing and either bringing in some of his own or management taking his word to sign someone else. 

But this isn't about Joe Maddon, it's about NL teams that are going to make some aggressive moves towards the top. The first team that came to my mind was the Cubs; they have a core of strong, young talent in Baez, Bryant, Soler, etc., that will help their anemic offense perk up a bit. Sure they'll set every NL record possible for strikeouts but they'll also hit 40 home runs each, so you ask the Cubs fans what they'd rather have. President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein has already put together winning teams (2004 and 2007 Red Sox) and is only a few steps away from putting the Cubs back on the big stage. But he already made a lot of moves late in 2014 for starting pitching (Felix Doubront, Tsuyoshi Wada, Jacob Turner, etc.), so its a degree of quality issue. I wrote a post a few months ago citing the Cubs as the top target for Max Scherzer or Jon Lester signing, but we'll see if management wants to sign one of them and write off one of their new arrivals. Either way, you won't win a World Series with Edwin Jackson losing 15 games a year (he's 14-33 as a Cub). 

The point is, I think the Cubs will be in the market for either a closer or a starting pitcher. Not both. But they won't be the top movers.

The Braves will. 

In 2014, the Braves limped to the finish, going 21-31 in August and September and watching not only the Nationals fly by them but also the Mets catch up to them and tie them for 2nd in the East. For a fan base that has witnessed 14 straight division championships, losing the division is a shock let alone finishing a season under .500 (they haven't been under .500 since 1990). Much like the Red Sox, the focus of Thursday's blog, they are used to winning and putting out a product like 2014 is unacceptable. They have a new stadium coming in and it would feel hollow putting a bad team there. 

The Braves aren't a bad team, but their weak is weaker than other team's weaker. 

Kind of like this, but opposite.

For example: BJ Upton led the team in strikeouts but played in fewer games than Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, and Freddie Freeman. His .208 batting average was also the lowest of anyone on the team with more than 300 at-bats. Not a good combination, leading the team in K's and taking the rear in batting average. If he hit 29 home runs and 102 RBIs like his brother in right field then it wold be a different story, but he only hit 12 home runs and 35 RBIs. Centerfield is a strong weakness, but he is signed through 2018 and the Braves don't have a strong farm system when it comes to outfield. Victor Reyes is their top outfield prospect and he turned 20 three weeks ago. His ETA to the majors is 2017 and I don't think the Braves will sit on their hands and wait patiently for a prospect to develop in hopes that he can take over for BJ Upton.

As far as solutions go, the centerfield free agent market is thin. Colby Rasmus of the Blue Jays seems to be the best bona fide centerfield option considering Denard Span will most likely re-sign with the Nationals. Rasmus is not only an average player but he is a danger to the clubhouse too. Tony La Russa essentially booted him from the Cardinals clubhouse and hasn't made many friends in Canada, either - that's hard to do! However, Emilio Bonifacio and Nori Aoki are free agents and could be great fits at the top of the order. 

Another weakness is starting pitching. Signing Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd in the offseason made sense but they both missed the entire season due to injury. The Braves made do with Harang and Santana and they pitched well, but not to the caliber that they were hoping. Keep in mind the Hall of Fame just inducted two Braves pitchers so they are used to the highest quality of pitching. You don't find a Maddux or Glavine every day but I think they can do better than Gavin Floyd and Brandon Beachy. That's why this year I think they'll be hunting some serious free agent game. The first name that comes to mind is Max Scherzer. I know in a previous post I said the Cubs would go after him and I would love it if he stayed a Tiger, but he can go to Atlanta still on a contending team and be their ace (if not ace then a close second to Julio Teheran). Scherzer had 3 quality wins stolen from him as a Tiger - he led the AL with 18 wins and could have had 21 if the bullpen kept his work intact. Imagine if he was with the Braves and had oh, Johnny Venters in the 8th and Craig freaking Kimbrel in the 9th inning? He wouldn't have to worry about holding a lead then. 

Another option would be James Shields. Big Game James has not shone as brightly in this postseason but in the 2014 regular season, he posted a 14-8 record with a 3.21 ERA, which would have been tied for most wins on the Braves staff and 3rd best starters' ERA. Jon Lester (unlikely) and Aaron Harang (likely to re-sign) are free agents but I think Shields would be a relatively cheap and successful option for the long term.

Again, I'm no GM but I think Braves have deep enough pockets and a good enough talent pool around them that they could hop right back into competition, even with the Nats right in the same division. We'll see.

Thanks for reading.

The 2014 Offseason

With the World Series fully underway, 28 other MLB teams have their sights set on everyone's least favorite part of the baseball season: the offseason. This year was a great year in terms of competition; if you look at any of the division races from the 90s or early 2000s, many of the division winners had run away with the division by Labor Day and oftentimes the Wild Card was the best of the worst. Compared to the last few years where many races are decided on the final day of the season, it is no question that the current baseball is more competitive top to bottom than baseball of the 90s.

How great were the 90s? Pictured here (from left): Ken Griffey, Jr., Larry Walker, Barry Bonds

While that has made the sport much more exciting, it also has given the current middle-of-the-road teams a glimmer of hope at contention. 

Teams are much more inconsistent year to year than from what I remember. For example, the Red Sox finished last in 2012 under Bobby V, won it all in 2013, and finished last again this year (in the AL East). The Braves finished 30 games above .500 in 2013, winning the NL East, but suffered the same fate as the Sox and plummeted to 79-83, a 17 win difference, but still good enough for 2nd in the East (and people thought the AL Central was bad...). The Rangers went from 91-73 to 67-95 (although their injury bug was worse than Ebola), and in the same division, the Astros improved from 51-111 to 70-92 and still fired Bo Porter. Poor guy. 

What I'm getting at is that you never know what can happen, and the last 3-5 years have been better indications of that more than ever. Teams that are counted out in Spring Training can show up in October and teams that are hailed and praised bow out in August. So that said, who will be the team making the most moves this offseason?

This is sort of a loaded question because of how many moving parts are attached to each trade. We'll know more when the Winter Meetings roll around in beautiful San Diego when big names are always moved (Mark Trumbo last year, Pujols in 2011, you never know what can happen). But my first thought was the Red Sox. They are a winning city impatient for another championship after they've had 3 in 10 years, and another sub .500 season will cost John Farrell his job. GM Ben Cherington showed some serious guts trading away Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes for one of Cuba's finest in Yoenis Cespedes and then signing essentially a carbon Cuban copy in Rusney Castillo, which creates a logjam in the outfield. Promising rookie Mookie Betts hit .296 in just over 50 games, the flyin' Hawaiian Shane Victorino will be coming back for 2015, and Jackie Bradley Jr. will be there again just because for whatever reason he keeps getting a chance despite hitting .198 in 127 games. Third basemen Will Middlebrooks is like a cat at an open door, you never know what you're going to get. 

Now that you're finished laughing at my bad joke, you'll see that I'm serious. Even though he's just 25, Middlebrooks hit only .191 in 63 games, but still had 7 multi-hit games. It just doesn't make sense for a sub .200 hitter. David Ross is an aging backstop and equally as inefficient at the plate, hitting only .184 in 50 games. 

The Sox had 3 starters hitting below .200 (rarely was it all at the same time given injuries and DFAs) and they will not stand for that again, so I expect them to be in the market for some bats to protect Napoli, Papi, and Cespedes.

I wouldn't quite classify the Red Sox as a "win now or bust" team like the Tigers; they have a healthy farm system and a good starting rotation as long as they remain healthy. They just need enough hitting to complement the aforementioned sluggers to be competitive. Yes, Papi and Napoli are aging, but you don't need to be 24 to turn on a waist high fastball and send it to the boroughs. 

The first solution for third base that comes to mind is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist, a utility/journeyman for the Rays, was an All-Star in 2012 and is always commended for his spectacular defense regardless of where Joe Maddon used him on the diamond (career .987 fielding percentage, .997 in the OF).

He has played 4 games at third base over 3 years and has made one error so take that .750 F% with a grain of salt. Zobrist is also a career .264 hitter with average home run power. At age 33, he will come cheap, play good defense, and perhaps swing a few home runs around the Pesky Pole in right field.

As far as catching goes, I think Geovany Soto would be a great fit for Boston.

After winning the NL Rookie of the Year in 2008 for the Cubs, Soto has yet to find similar success with anyone. He has bounced around from the Windy City to Texas and then to Oakland where he is currently. He is only signed through 2014 so he will be on the free agent market, and like Zobrist, will be cheap. Soto's track record of all-defense no-offense is attractive to a lot of teams and for the Red Sox, who already have tons of offense, he can simply throw runners out and not worry about his at-bats. In split time between Oakland and Texas in 2014, Soto hit .250 in 24 games - quite respectable and a huge improvement from his .198 performance in 2012. His hitting is trending upward and his defense has always been the best part of his game - that's why he started the Wild Card game for the A's in 2014 despite only playing 10 games for them up to that point. He didn't allow a steal through 3 innings and then replacement Derek Norris allowed 7 - goes to show you that he can stop the run.

In 2013, the Red Sox hit at a torrid pace on their way to a World Series title. First in the AL in runs scored, 3rd in steals, 2nd in average, and 1st in slugging was a winning formula in Farrell's first year as manager. 2014 was a completely different story as the Red Sox scuffled to 12th in the AL in average and 11th in runs scored - but when you have 3 starters who hit below .200, what can you expect? I think Zobrist and Soto would be great additions to an already stellar team. The Red Sox dynasty is far from over, I think it was merely dormant in 2014. 

I enjoyed writing this. I felt like a GM and a detective at the same time, figuring out who would fit where and whose contract was compatible...I'll do the busiest NL team tomorrow. Thanks for reading. 

The Sun Devils

Now that we are on our 341st day without baseball (or so it feels), I'm grasping at straws for any baseball topic to write about because I miss watching it being played. 

Me without baseball on every night.

So here's what we have for a random topic. What college has produced the best all-around team? Not the best players or most Hall of Famers, but if we were to build a team from their graduates, who would be the best team? Baseball is one of the few remaining sports that doesn't require their athletes to go to college, so a lot of stars (ever heard of Mike Trout?) are drafted straight from high school and don't develop a relationship with the NCAA. That makes this blog interesting because some of the biggest names never went to school. 

My first thought were the poewrhouses of the south like Texas, but they've produced aggressively average major leaguers by the likes of Taylor Teagarden, Drew Stubbs, and Jordan Danks. They have had some go on to big time success such as Brandon Belt and Huston Street. Okay, how about UNC? Good teams year after year but not always the best pros - Andrew Miller, Chris Iannetta, Kyle Seager lead the highlights but that's about it. TCU has made a recent run to prominence, but other than Andrew Cashner, Jake Arrieta, and Matt Carpenter are the only Horned Frog alum with serious success. So here's where I leave it. The two best colleges to field a team would be Arizona State and USC. I'll let you decide who would win.

So here we go. For the Sun Devils: 
1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
2. Ian Kinsler, 3B
3. Barry Bonds, LF
4. Reggie Jackson, RF
5. Either Ike Davis or Bill Buckner, 1B
6. Andre Ethier, CF
7. Paul Lo Duca, C
8. Willie Bloomquist, SS
9. Jim Palmer, P

That is a mean lineup with 48 All-Star Games between them (Bonds and Jackson lead the way with 14 a piece). Pushing Kinsler to third might be a bit tricky but offensively it will not matter given the protection of the home run king behind him and Mr. October behind him! The only weak portion is Willie Bloomquist, who isn't bad offensively with a .272 average but his .976 fielding percentage at shortstop is alarming. Pedroia has an MVP, Kinsler has 2 pennants, Bond has 7 MVPs, Jackson has an MVP, and Jim Palmer has 3 Cy Young awards. Oh and not to mention Jackson and Bonds are cousins (apparently) so having some family ties always helps.

For the Trojans:
1. Bobby Valentine, SS
2. Fred Lynn, CF
3. Ralph Kiner, LF
4. Mark McGwire, 1B
5. Bret Boone, 2B
6. Lucas DUDA, RF
7. Aaroun Boone, 3B
8. Jeff Clement, C
9. Randy Johnson or Tom Seaver OR Don Sutton (!!!!!!!!), P

Again, a mean lineup, though they seem to rely heavily on star power. This lineup reminds me of the Tigers this year, great at the top but the role players will make it weak. The Boone brothers had a few great years (even though Bret was suspected of juicing) but still, Aaron's a .263 career hitter and his known only for his clutch home run to send the Yankees to the 2003 World Series. Honest answer, how many of you knew he played for the Astros, Marlins, and Nationals? Still, Fred Lynn did have a Platinum Season in 1975 and Kiner and McGwire have 952 homers between them, making a formidable 3-4 combo.

So who wins? I'd say ASU in a close game. If Johnson starts, maybe not as close given the Sun Devils career averages against him. Paul Lo Duca (Backyard Baseball alum) hit a cool .317 off of the Big Unit, Bonds hit .306 with 3 dingers, Pedroia is 4-5 career (small sample size, I know), and Ethier is 2-3. So like I said, I think it would be close. Jim Palmer has faced Bobby Valentine (.167) and Fred Lynn (.200) which is compelling evidence for the Sun Devils, but if Mark McGwire hits a hold of one...it will be rolling for awhile. 

I think it would be a fun matchup. My parents' alma mater, University of Michigan, has some serious talent too, but not this deep. Guys like Barry Larkin, Jim Abbott, and Mike Matheny were Wolverines in their day, but unfortunately, the rest of the starting 9 wouldn't be able to compete with ASU.

Thanks for reading - and the World Series starts tomorrow!

Why I Am Pulling for the Royals

The Fall Classic is finally upon us, and it certainly is an unexpected matchup. For the first time since 2002 and only the second time ever, the World Series is comprised of two Wild Card teams facing off - for teams that consider a playoff berth a consolation prize after not winning their respective division, I think they'll be happy with a pennant flying in centerfield next season.

For the Giants, it is their third pennant in 5 years (2010, 2012, 2014, they hate odd years), which I guess makes them one step below a dynasty. If they win this World Series against the Royals, then will be indeed a bona fide dynasty, only 5 teams have won that ratio of titles to years (early 1910 A's, late '30s Yankees, early '50s Yankees, early '70s A's, late '90s Yankees). With surprising 2014 performances from guys like Joe Panik and Yusmeiro Petit, bench play from Joaquin Arias and Travis Ishikawa, clutch hitting from starters Brandon Crawford (he hit the first ever postseason grand slam by a shortstop in the Wild Card game against the Pirates) and Buster Posey, and a cult following of Hunter Pence, the Giants have eliminated star power from their winning concoction and relied on pitching and defense to get them there. 

But I'll say it: I'm sick of the Giants. And the Cardinals too for that matter; for the last 5 World Series, the NL participant has been one of the two. It's not that I actively dislike the Giants or their style of play (although Bruce Bochy looks like he always has a paper cut between his fingers), I just want to see someone else playing in October. These classic NL teams have a fundamental way of baseball that is not necessarily thrilling to watch but it is great tactical baseball and that's why they are there, but I want to see the Pirates or the young Nationals take their shot at a title. But I guess I'll have to wait. 

That's not the only reason I'm rooting for the Royals, though. For starters, finishing a game behind the Tigers, I tip my cap to the Royals for gritting their teeth and winning when it mattered. In the 19 games they played against the Central winners, the Royals went 6-13 and allowed 100 runs to the Tigers, the most they allowed to any team by 17 runs. They had to do some serious work against the rest of the Central (15 of their last 19 games were against the Central), and they did, finishing 33-24 against the White Sox, Indians, and Twins. The Royals also saw their season dwindling away in the dog days of summer; as of July 21st they were 8 games back in the Central, so what else do they do than rip off a 41-27 record for the second half and had a chance at a game 163 for the Central championship if the Tigers hadn't won on the last day of the season.

So yeah, the Royals battle, they're gritty, they're underdogs, however you want to frame it. They've overcome the odds, etc. They're the first team ever with a World Series berth without a 20 home run hitter (Gordon led the team with 19) and a 15-game winner (Shields and Ventura both had 14), which is fun, but it still isn't why I'm rooting for them.

The city. As I was driving to work the other day listening to my morning radio show, host Ryan Schuiling (@ryanschuiling on Twitter) made an excellent point about the city of Kansas City. Being one of the smallest markets in baseball, KC doesn't always have the electric crowd you've seen in October. They ranked 11th in AL attendance and haven't cracked 2 million fans since 1991. While The K is a beautiful stadium, Kansas City just isn't a hotbed for fandemonium until it matters (October). 

We all know the Royals' last World Series was 1985, flirting with 30 years. That's a long time.

But what else do they have to root for?

When I mention small markets, I mean more than just attendance - Kansas City only has one other professional team, the Kansas City Chiefs. Since 2007, the Chiefs are 42-75 and have lost in the first round of the playoffs twice. In fact, since their inception in 1963, the Chiefs have won one Super Bowl: 1969, 45 years ago. Only a small sample of their fan base has seen two city championships, most have probably seen one, and probably the majority haven't seen any (or can remember any).

Compare this to Detroit, let's say. Detroit, routinely in the top 10 sports cities in the country, has the Tigers, Red Wings, Pistons, and Lions. The Tigers have won 4 straight AL Central titles as well as 2 pennants in the last 10 years. The Red Wings have won 4 Stanley Cups in my lifetime ('96, '97, '02, '08), and have been in the playoffs literally every single year I have been alive. The Pistons have the 2004 championship most recently and the early 1990s Bad Boys which won 2 titles themselves. The Lions, are, well, the Lions. I'm prouder of their 2008 0-16 season than I am of the Red Wings playoff streak to be honest, but the point is we are spoiled. The Tigers didn't win this year but the Red Wings will be competitive and the Lions are moving forward. 

Let's look at San Francisco. Even though they don't have a hockey team, the 49ers have been a powerful force in the NFC the last few years, going to the conference championship game in 2011 and 2013 and going to the Super Bowl in 2012. Even the Golden State Warriors are fun young team with playoff berths the last two years and one of the best shooters in the game in Stephen Curry. Oh and their baseball team has 2 World Series in the last 5 years. That's fine. 

As Schuiling pointed out, Kansas City does not have a whole lot to hang their hat on in terms of athletic achievement. Kansas City, Missouri, however, was awarded a municipal gold medal for their Anti-Drug Sales Tax campaign - in 1995. 

I know as an independent blogger I should be remaining neutral, but what was the first thing you learned in kindergarten (other than how to spell my last name)? Sharing. 

I'm looking at you, San Fran. Kansas City deserves a win. You've had plenty.

Thanks for reading. 

Dad's Birthday

So first things first I want to wish my dad a happy 60th birthday today. The man who cleans teeth for a living and reads Civil War books for fun

See, I'm not kidding. This is us at Fort Macon in North Carolina.

 also taught me how to throw a baseball and hit a pitch thrown overhand. Even though he hates to admit it, I am indeed bigger than him now, but that doesn't mean I can't look up to him and here is a birthday post to you, Dad.

Knowing that all of you are so great at math, my dad was born in 1954 in Detroit. As he began to grow up, the Tigers came into their own after a rebuilding phase between the 1940s slugging teams of Greenberg and York and the 1960s intimidating defense with Denny McLain and Mickey Lolich. When we would watch October baseball together in the past, he would always reminisce of how his teachers would stop whatever they were doing in class so they could turn the Tigers on the radio in the '68 World Series against the Cardinals (the MLB wouldn't dream of having a weekday World Series game now). And then he would share some memories of his favorite players, Willie Horton and Gates Brown. 

Willie Horton had a blue collar career, so to speak. Born in Virginia, Horton went to high school in Detroit and was drafted shortly after his graduation. Two short years later, he debuted as a 20-year old man (I saw man and not boy because look at these arms)

He's listed as 5'11"/209 lbs, I'm pretty sure his biceps were 20 pounds. Each. Screenshotted from YouTube.

 in the first game of a doubleheader in September of 1963 against the Washington Senators. Horton was a pinch hitter (remember no DH yet) for pitcher Hank Aguirre and promptly laced a single to centerfield off of Jim Hannan. Horton would round out his brief 1963 season with a .326 average, two steals, and his first career home run in only his second career plate appearance! 

Now I said he had a blue collar career, not because he played for a team that's primary collar is blue, but because of his work ethic. Horton, or so my dad says, always played the game hard and played it the right way. He showed up every day, did what was asked of him, and did it well. He wasn't the best player on the field, especially with a guy named Al Kaline playing the other corner of the outfield, but he usually played every game of a season. A 4-time All Star, Horton's best season came in 1968 when the Tigers won the World Series (coincidence?). At age 25, he hit for a solid .285 average with 36 home runs, 85 RBIs, and 20 doubles. All in all, he slugged .543, good for 3rd best in the MLB, and was 2nd in the AL in at-bats per home run. 

He brought is lunch pail every day and simply went to work. Horton was a career .273 hitter with 325 home runs and narrowly missed 2,000 hits - he finished with 1,993. Not the greatest player on the field, but always a tough out and power threat. He was fun to watch, says my dad, and rightfully so considering he was in the lineup every day and part of one of the best Tigers' teams in history. 

Gates Brown was basically Horton's backup for the duration of his career. He served as a pinch hitter and leftfielder for the Tigers from 1963 to 1975, and was essentially the 60s' Don Kelly (no wonder my dad loved him). Interestingly enough, Brown was a Tiger from 1963-1975 and Horton was from 1963-1976 before going to the Rangers, so they almost had the exact same tenure at the same position. That's what I call a neat-o fact. Brown, like Horton, was a good player and a better man. Being a career role player isn't easy (just ask about my varsity basketball career), but Brown did as he was asked and did it well. Hey, he got a ring, after all. That's all any player wants.

So happy birthday to a great dad and a great man.
Thanks for teaching me to throw.

Thanks for reading.