What a Time for the Kubitza Family

Here's a fun trivia question for you baseball fans out there: what brothers have the most career home runs in the Major Leagues? When I was asked this question at the Hall of Fame last summer, my first guesses included the Boone brothers, heck maybe the Molinas with three of them? Maybe The LaRoches? 

The Aarons. Hank's brother Tommie played 7 seasons with the Braves and hit 13 career home runs, which gives them a grand total of 768 home runs, the most of any pair/set of brothers to play professional baseball in America. 

I found that fun intro both factual and transitional into the topic of today's post, about the Texas native Kubitza brothers, Kyle and Austin.

Both Kubitzas went to Colleyville Heritage High School, which is where current MLB pitcher James Russell attended. Just over a year apart, older brother and third baseman/outfielder Kyle attended Texas State University in San Marcos and was drafted in the 3rd round overall by the Braves. Austin, a crafty yet powerful right-handed pitcher, was drafted out of high school but chose to play college ball for the legendary coach Wayne Graham at Rice University in Texas. He was then drafted by the Tigers in the 4th round of the 2013 draft and I had the pleasure of watching him pitch for the Whitecaps this season. 

They've never faced each other, though. Not when they were in college, travel ball, even little league, Austin told MLive reporter Lenny Padilla. He's waiting for when they both make it to the Majors for that opportunity. 

But anyway, the title of my post implies that they're not just a pair of brothers trying to make it to the show. They are incredibly talented, as you could have guessed from Kyle's high draft position and Austin's high draft position both times (7th round out of high school). Kyle, a lefty hitter who posted an absurd .405 OBP last season, stands at 6'3", 215 and his younger brother (not little brother) is 6'5", 225 pounds. That's an intimidating size for both guys.

Imagine a David Freese sized guy but from the other side of the plate and hitting for a better average. Many scouting reports will say that he lacks power to be an effective third basemen in the Braves lineup, but if you're Fredi Gonzalez, how can you refuse a .295 batting average and a .405 on-base from a lefty? He's only gotten better from joining the minors; after a stunning .321 average in rookie ball in 2011, his average plummeted almost 100 points to .239 in 2012, but after many long hours in the cage, raised it to .260 in 2013 and then to .295 in 2014. The hard work paid off for Kyle, as he was named to the Braves' 40-man roster yesterday. Chris Johnson is the current Braves' third basemen and with the trade that sent right fielder Jason Heyward to St. Louis, there is an opening in the corner pasture. I don't think Kubitza will be the starting right fielder in 2015 but I think he could perhaps get a September call-up. With his naming to the 40-man, he will almost certainly start 2015 for AAA Gwinnett and then see how he hits there; it will be the best pitching he'll have seen to date. 

Here is the link for his prospect watch page courtesy of MLB Pipeline. He is the Braves' 12th ranked prospect, and, as you see on the page, is predicted to make his debut in 2015. Scouts gave him a 50 power (out of 80 as a ceiling) and a 60 arm, which will bode well if the Braves give him a chance as their right fielder or third baseman of the future, as both positions require the ability to sling the ball long distances. Working in his favor are the prospects in front of him, which may sound backwards, but of the 11 other prospects in front of him according to Pipeline, there is only one outfielder and one middle infielder, the rest are pitchers or catchers. Seeing as the Braves management would rather grow their talent rather than buy it, I think he has a good shot to not only get a shot but seize it and becoming a starter. Being selected to the 40-man is a good start. 

Austin saw similar success for Low A West Michigan in 2014. He is ranked the #5 prospect for what is a very weak Tigers farm system (seeing as they traded away their #1 to the Blue Jays last week), but don't let that convince you that Kubitza is not major league material. His 2014 stats were nothing short of dominant, going 10-2 with a 2.34 ERA, a 1.076 WHIP (get this: 3.25 K/BB ratio - wow), and 140 K's which was 4th in the Midwest League. Kubitza was an All-Star representative for the Whitecaps (one of their 4 starting pitchers to be named to the roster) and will likely start the 2015 season at AA Erie for the Tigers. 

I may have been an employee when I saw him pitch, but I couldn't help but sneak a peek to watch him practice his craft. He had a great combination of power fastballs and a sharp slider to go with a changeup that dropped off the table to make hitters swing and miss. His scouting ceiling may only be a 45 currently, but going 10-2 with a 2.34 ERA and finishing 4th in the league in strikeouts might make some people change their mind. 

Like the title said, what a time for the Kubitza family. They have two sons on the verge of reaching the biggest stage for baseball players and here I am refusing to turn the heat on in my house because I want to save the extra money. 

Where did I go wrong?

Thanks for reading. 

2014 Postseason, Part II

Well I'm a day late on my promise of delivering the NL Offseason busy body, but hey the World Series was on last night. I had a date with good baseball, can you blame me? No, I didn't think so.

Either way, I'll be getting to it right now. With Joe Maddon now on the market as the top 'free agent' manager, it will be interesting to see how some teams shape their offseason pickups around their managerial search. For example, if Minnesota signs Joe Maddon, he could be bringing Ben Zobrist with him and push Trevor Plouffe to left to replace Josh Willingham. This is all conjecture, but there are numerous situations where I can see Maddon signing and either bringing in some of his own or management taking his word to sign someone else. 

But this isn't about Joe Maddon, it's about NL teams that are going to make some aggressive moves towards the top. The first team that came to my mind was the Cubs; they have a core of strong, young talent in Baez, Bryant, Soler, etc., that will help their anemic offense perk up a bit. Sure they'll set every NL record possible for strikeouts but they'll also hit 40 home runs each, so you ask the Cubs fans what they'd rather have. President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein has already put together winning teams (2004 and 2007 Red Sox) and is only a few steps away from putting the Cubs back on the big stage. But he already made a lot of moves late in 2014 for starting pitching (Felix Doubront, Tsuyoshi Wada, Jacob Turner, etc.), so its a degree of quality issue. I wrote a post a few months ago citing the Cubs as the top target for Max Scherzer or Jon Lester signing, but we'll see if management wants to sign one of them and write off one of their new arrivals. Either way, you won't win a World Series with Edwin Jackson losing 15 games a year (he's 14-33 as a Cub). 

The point is, I think the Cubs will be in the market for either a closer or a starting pitcher. Not both. But they won't be the top movers.

The Braves will. 

In 2014, the Braves limped to the finish, going 21-31 in August and September and watching not only the Nationals fly by them but also the Mets catch up to them and tie them for 2nd in the East. For a fan base that has witnessed 14 straight division championships, losing the division is a shock let alone finishing a season under .500 (they haven't been under .500 since 1990). Much like the Red Sox, the focus of Thursday's blog, they are used to winning and putting out a product like 2014 is unacceptable. They have a new stadium coming in and it would feel hollow putting a bad team there. 

The Braves aren't a bad team, but their weak is weaker than other team's weaker. 

Kind of like this, but opposite.

For example: BJ Upton led the team in strikeouts but played in fewer games than Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, and Freddie Freeman. His .208 batting average was also the lowest of anyone on the team with more than 300 at-bats. Not a good combination, leading the team in K's and taking the rear in batting average. If he hit 29 home runs and 102 RBIs like his brother in right field then it wold be a different story, but he only hit 12 home runs and 35 RBIs. Centerfield is a strong weakness, but he is signed through 2018 and the Braves don't have a strong farm system when it comes to outfield. Victor Reyes is their top outfield prospect and he turned 20 three weeks ago. His ETA to the majors is 2017 and I don't think the Braves will sit on their hands and wait patiently for a prospect to develop in hopes that he can take over for BJ Upton.

As far as solutions go, the centerfield free agent market is thin. Colby Rasmus of the Blue Jays seems to be the best bona fide centerfield option considering Denard Span will most likely re-sign with the Nationals. Rasmus is not only an average player but he is a danger to the clubhouse too. Tony La Russa essentially booted him from the Cardinals clubhouse and hasn't made many friends in Canada, either - that's hard to do! However, Emilio Bonifacio and Nori Aoki are free agents and could be great fits at the top of the order. 

Another weakness is starting pitching. Signing Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd in the offseason made sense but they both missed the entire season due to injury. The Braves made do with Harang and Santana and they pitched well, but not to the caliber that they were hoping. Keep in mind the Hall of Fame just inducted two Braves pitchers so they are used to the highest quality of pitching. You don't find a Maddux or Glavine every day but I think they can do better than Gavin Floyd and Brandon Beachy. That's why this year I think they'll be hunting some serious free agent game. The first name that comes to mind is Max Scherzer. I know in a previous post I said the Cubs would go after him and I would love it if he stayed a Tiger, but he can go to Atlanta still on a contending team and be their ace (if not ace then a close second to Julio Teheran). Scherzer had 3 quality wins stolen from him as a Tiger - he led the AL with 18 wins and could have had 21 if the bullpen kept his work intact. Imagine if he was with the Braves and had oh, Johnny Venters in the 8th and Craig freaking Kimbrel in the 9th inning? He wouldn't have to worry about holding a lead then. 

Another option would be James Shields. Big Game James has not shone as brightly in this postseason but in the 2014 regular season, he posted a 14-8 record with a 3.21 ERA, which would have been tied for most wins on the Braves staff and 3rd best starters' ERA. Jon Lester (unlikely) and Aaron Harang (likely to re-sign) are free agents but I think Shields would be a relatively cheap and successful option for the long term.

Again, I'm no GM but I think Braves have deep enough pockets and a good enough talent pool around them that they could hop right back into competition, even with the Nats right in the same division. We'll see.

Thanks for reading.

The Year of the Pitcher Part II

As I was writing Saturday's post about the history of Tiger Stadium, I started to peruse the 1968 Tigers, the same year Denny McLain won 31 games (we won't see a 30 game winner for a very long time) and had an ERA of 1.96. As I gathered myself after being blown away so fiercely by these stats, I remembered that was also Bob Gibson's Cy Young winning year of 22-9 with a 1.12 ERA in 304 innings. If you were to Google "Year of the Pitcher" the first hit is the 1968 MLB season, which doesn't really surprise me considering McLain and Gibson both won Cy Young Awards and MVP awards that year. But check this out:

• That's the first and only time that both Cy Young winners were named MVPs as well. There have been 10 pitchers to win both awards in the same season, but never in both leagues.
• Since the award has been given to both leagues in 1967, Bob Gibson is the only National League pitcher to win both awards (Sandy Koufax and Don Newcombe, both Dodgers, won CYA and MVP but before there were 2 CYA).
• Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA is the 4th lowest single season ERA ever. The next closest ERA for a pitcher after 1920 is Greg Maddux's 1.559 ERA in 1994.
• McLain is the one of 2 pitchers with 31 wins in the Live Ball Era and the only one with 30+ after World War II (Lefty Grove won 31 games in 1931).
• The 1968 World Series featured 3 complete games each from Mickey Lolich and Bob Gibson - the only time that has ever happened.

So 1968 was clearly the Year of the Pitcher. But what's the runner-up?

Answer: 1995. Winners: Greg Maddux (19-2, 1.63) and Randy Johnson (18-2, 2.48).

After the grudge match of the 1994 strike that resulted of the fans being stripped of a World Series, baseball came back with a bang. In 1995, the Indians' Albert Belle became the only person in baseball history to have a 50 home run-50 double season, Atlanta continued their tirade on the NL East, finishing 21 games ahead of the 2nd place Mets and Phillies, and future Hall of Famer Barry Larkin won his only MVP award, hitting .319. With an abbreviated 1994 season, fans simply missed the game. Any action would have been nice to see, but a pair of 2-loss seasons from the greatest pitchers of the last 30 years blew us all away. Welcome back, baseball.

It wasn't quite the level of 1968 where Gibson had an absolutely absurd ERA and McLain had an absolutely absurd win total, but I think that these seasons are just as impressive. Think about baseball in the 60s, there weren't a whole lot of huge sluggers around; Aaron, Mays, Schmidt, an aging Mantle, and Killebrew were really the brunt of the power. Compared to 90s, with McGwire, Canseco, Sosa, Bonds, Griffey, Thome, A-Rod, Albert Belle (in 1995 at least), there were sluggers popping up left and right. Sure a lot of them were steroid users, but doesn't that make Maddux's 8 home runs allowed over 209 innings all the more impressive? I think so (of course I do, I'm the one writing). I'll share some quick highlights about both of their seasons and why 1995 was the Year of the Cy Young Pitcher Part II.

Maddux
Mad Dog was always praised for his durability. Among all his league-leading stats, he led the league in starts the most, with 6 times (including when he was 39). In fact, except for his rookie year, Maddux made at least 25 starts every single year he ever pitched. But in 1995, he only started 28 times, and he made the most of those starts. 

• On June 15th against Montreal, Maddux only needed 87 pitches to shut out the Expos. 
• From May 12th to July 29th he didn't hit a batter.
• From August 26th to the end of the regular season he didn't allow a home run. 
• He was 13-0 on the road with a 1.12 ERA in 15 starts. 
• He had a .21 ERA when the Braves scored between 0-2 runs (1 run in 5 games) with a 17:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
• He allowed only 8 2nd inning hits all year (random, I know). 
• He was 7-0 against the NL East with a 1.62 ERA. 

Unbelievable.

Johnson
Johnson won his first of 5 Cy Youngs in 1995, going 19-2 with a 2.48 ERA (terrible compared to Maddux, but still led the AL). He also struck out 294 batters, most in the Majors by 58 K's (almost 6 games worth). It went Johnson 294, Nomo 236, Stottlemyre 205, and that was it for people over 200. He blew away both batters and other pitchers with how dominating his 6' 10" frame was coming down on them. Let's delve.

• In 1995, Johnson had 16 10+ strikeout games. 
• He averaged 119.8 pitches per start (including a rain delay game in which he threw 37 pitches), including 141 in back-to-back starts in June and 160 in a complete game against Cleveland. 
• He faced 866 batters, not even cracking the top 10. This means he struck out 30.5% of the batters he faced, compared to Maddux's 23.5%.
• Tale of two pitchers: when Johnson got hit, he got hit. In his two losses, his ERA was 9.45 versus 1.48 in wins. 
• He had a .164 batting average against with runners in scoring position.
• He was 6-1 against the AL West with a 2.55 ERA.

Who had the better season? I'd go with Maddux, he was simply systematic in the way that he handled other teams. While Johnson was a workhorse (not wild, but threw a lot) and struck out half the block, Maddux (the younger of the two in 1995, surprisingly) was a machine. Incredible strikeout to walk ratio, incredible WHIP and ERA, and 13-0 on the road? It's no wonder the Braves won the World Series that year. 

Here's a fun fact about this pair of Cy Young winners: it is the 3rd furthest distance between the winners' teams (Safeco Field to Turner Field [the Braves didn't begin playing there until 1997 but Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium is no longer standing] is 2,636 miles) and furthest since the Padres' Gaylord Perry and Yankees' Ron Guidry in 1978 (Yankee Stadium to Qualcomm Stadium is 2,766 miles).

Enjoy the playoffs, folks. Tonight kicks off the postseason with Kansas City and Oakland in the AL Wild Card game. Though Lester has been a great pick up for the A's, I think Big Game James stays true to his name and pitches lights out for the Royals to send the A's packing. 

But then again, I didn't even have the Angels or Royals in the playoffs. Take me with a grain of salt.

Thanks for reading. 

Release the Kimbrel

With my recent post about Jonathan Papelbon, I was intrigued by some other closers and was looking into the closers of today. K-Rod is back from the dead, leading the MLB in saves  with 21 going into play today, the Giants Romo is 2nd with 20 and then four are tied with 19; through ~ 70 games, we are on pace to have 6 (maybe 8) closers with 40+ saves, and some people might not even reach 50, which shows that it is not necessarily harder to close games, nor is it that the closers have been worse (1.69 blown saves in 2014 vs. 2.61 blown saves in 2013), its just that there are more blowouts (I think).

Before I get too off topic, I want to talk about a player who has only been in the league for 5 years (2014 is his 5th year), and is already his teams leader in saves and is T71 all time with 158: Craig Kimbrel.

He puts his arm like that because any swinging or swaying while taking signs is a balk.

Kimbrel does another goofy intimidation thing, but when you're this good, you can do whatever you want. You'll remember in my Pap post that I commented on the staredown, but considering that Kimbrel could probably beat me up with his mind, I won't say anything. 

Okay, but Kimbrel though. Go to the Braves Instagram page, or search #ReleasetheKimbrel and you'll see the Ted rocking when this guy comes out in the 9th to slam the door. It's a chilling video and I claim that Kimbrel is the best closer in the game today.

But that's kind of obvious, isn't it? Okay, fine. He has potential to be the best closer we've ever seen.

Kimbrel won Rookie of the Year in 2011 at the young age of 23 along with Trout in the American League, making them some of the highest performing rookies we've seen in a long time (I almost said most talented but all winners of the ROY are talented, so I think this is a better qualifier). Even before his official rookie year in 2010, Kimbrel was 4-0 with a .44 ERA. Wait, what? Yes, a .44 ERA. In 20.2 IP, he allowed one earned run. One. Kimbrel came on in a mop up role (well not quite, they were down 5-1 in the 8th) in May (his third appearance ever) against the Diamondbacks and allowed a run on a walk, steal, sac fly, and single. He still struck out 2. 

Then 2011 rolled around and Kimbrel cemented his spot at the back end of the Braves bullpen. He pitched in 79 games (most relievers throw between 50-60) and recorded 46 saves, most in the NL. He also led the NL in games finished with 64 while posting a 2.10 ERA, a career worst. 

In 2012, he posted a 1.01 ERA, recorded 42 saves (led NL) and had a WHIP of .654. Put differently, he wouldn't allow a hit or a walk for basically every other appearance. Last year, his ERA was worse (1.21) and a WHIP of .881 but recorded more saves (50), which is his career high to date. 

So back to my claim earlier. Let's assume Kimbrel pitches until he is 40 years old, which will allow 18 full seasons in the Major Leagues. Right now, according to Baseball Reference, he is averaging 41 saves a season. Multiply this 18 seasons times 41 saves and you get 738 saves, which would break Mariano Rivera's save record by 86 (two seasons worth). Wow.

I don't want to be Debbie Downer over here, but just for the sake of being realistic, Kimbrel may need Tommy John surgery or could have another type of injury. I do NOT want this to happen at all, I love watching him pitch because he's so dominant and makes even the best hitters quiver, but for just for arguing, let's say he goes down. If he were to go down right now with 19 saves, he would not be able to make it back until the 2015 All-Star Game. So, if he misses the rest of this season, he'll miss out on let's say 25 saves. Career total down to 713. Then with rehab, recovery, and return, he'll miss another half a season, another 25 saves. Career total down to 688, still a full season ahead of Mariano Rivera's all-time record. For another argument, let's say he only plays 15 years, through age 37. 15 seasons x 41 save average is 615, still good enough for second all time. 

If he continues on this torrid pace, not only will he be crazy high on the all-time saves list, but his ERA will one of the best ever. With a 1.45 ERA, he is clearly in the lead for closers and pitchers that have been around for more than just a cup of coffee. But, the minimum qualifier is 1000 innings pitched. Kimbrel only has 254. He'll have to quadruple that (AKA play 20 seasons of sub 2 ERA) to win the career ERA crown. He also could qualify for the WHIP crown, but doesn't have the qualifier. 

His stat lines are just mind blowing. I don't really have much to say about him other than his opportunity to be the greatest closer ever. He's already the Braves saves leader, and only at age 26, the sky is honestly the limit. 

Is there anything he can't do? This picture just says to me, "Hey, I can close games and dress down for a relaxing evening of investing and gin rummy."

Thanks for reading. 

2014 Predictions: NL East

The NL East had some trouble with competition this past year. The Braves ran away with the division, winning it by 10 games over the Nationals and another 12 games over the next closest competitor. It was also an injury-ridden division. Even the Braves were not immune from the bug; Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, Dan Uggla, and BJ Upton all had stints on the 15-day DL and Tim Hudson got his ankle shattered against the Mets in the middle of the summer. Despite their hard luck (it was not as hard as anyone else's), Fredi Gonzalez rode the successes of Chris Johnson, Freddie Freeman, and Andrelton Simmons into the playoffs. I expect them to do the exact same thing in 2014.

NL East

1. Atlanta 94-68
All of the pieces are in place. Now it is time to perform. Last year, a lot of people left their game in the warm weather in Spring Training a la BJ Upton only hitting .184 and Dan Uggla .179. Evan Gattis was a pleasant surprise, crushing 21 home runs in 105 games, and he will take over the full time catching position since Brian McCann has gone to the Yankees. Freddie Freeman, coming off of an offseason engagement to his girlfriend, will be in high spirits and repeat his .319 campaign and lead the league in hugs given.

The second base position is shaky as of right now: Uggla will be back, but youngsters Joey Terdoslavich and Taylor Pastornicky (spell check is screaming at me right now) will also make a case for the spot come Spring. We'll see what Gonzalez picks. The rotation is solid, with new pitchers Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd joining the squad. The newly signed Julio Teheran will continue to improve along side of young hurlers Mike Minor and Kris Medlen. Floyd and Beachy will not be 20 game winners, that's for sure, but they are good 4th and 5th pitchers. If they can get any type of lead, they'll be turning it over to the *new* best closer in the game, Craig Kimbrel. 

2. Washington 90-72
A lot of folks are picking the Nats to be a powerhouse and even go all the way this year. I have a few reservations about them, namely the new management. Matt Williams is a very capable manager, but it is his first year - Mike Matheny went 88-74 in his first year and then won the pennant with almost the exact same team. I see that happening with the Nats. The rotation is arguably the strongest in the NL between Strasburg, Gio, Zim, newly acquired Fister, and Detwiler.

Strasburg and Detwiler had some injury issues last season, so if they stay healthy then I think they will go far. On the offensive side of the ball, the Nats can rake. They were third in the NL in overall home runs (161), and if you take away Gio Gonzalez's one home run, they are first in the NL in non-pitcher home runs (160). Between Zimmerman, Werth, Harper, and sometimes Ian Desmond, these fellas score a lot of runs, but their team OBP was .313, only 8th in the league. If everyone's healthy, I expect to see them as a Wild Card and my guess at their record could be wildly wrong.

3. Philadelphia 75-87
The Phillies had a very disappointing year, ending ultimately with the termination of Charlie Manuel. The senior circuit will continue this year in the town of Brotherly Love: with signing Marlon Byrd (age 36) to two years, AJ  Burnett (age 37) to a one year deal, and Carlos Ruiz (age 35) to a three-year deal this offseason, they got good players but not any younger. Ryan Howard will be back from his season-ending injury, which is great, but again, he's no spring chicken and he strikes out a lot. 

The average age of the Phillies last year was 30.1 years old (28.5-year old 25-man roster). Again, high talent, but also high age. They'll be great for spurts, but ultimately, injuries and fatigue will catch up to them.

4. Miami 68-94
Last year's 100-loss team will improve slightly. They ended the season on a bright note, no-hitting the Tigers and winning on a walkoff wild pitch. They have a strong young core led by reigning ROY Jose Fernandez and defensive whiz Adeiny Hechavarria.

The Fish also had a tremendous offseason, signing Rafael Furcal, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Garrett Jones. Mike Redmond knows what he's doing down in Miami, and now that he has the players to back him up (at least more so than last year). Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick will get more reps and see their averages go up, not a lot, but enough. Right now, here's what I peg their starting lineup to look like: Furcal 2B, Yelich CF, Stanton RF, Jones 1B, Salty C, Ozuna LF, Polanco/Lucas 3B, Hech SS, Pitcher. Not bad at all - a lot of growth to be done. Jones will provide useful protection for Stanton, so his average will shoot back up to his 2012 All-Star campaign of .290. The rotation is decent, again, extremely young, featuring Fernandez, Turner, Eovaldi, and Alvarez. The average age of these four is exactly 22 years old. It won't be the Marlins year, but in four or five years, look out. 

5. New York 60-102
Unfortunately, the Mets took a step back this season and probably won't have much hope to compete this year. Missing Matt Harvey is a huge blow, and quasi-rookie Zach Wheeler will have to step up. He went 7-5 last year which is solid, but he'll have to throw a lot of innings this year, which I know Terry Collins won't like (because that's exactly what happened to Harvey). Now, anemic pitching staff aside, they are regaining Captain America (David Wright) and newly acquired Curtis Granderson.

I think Grandy is an awesome player, but his uppercut swing inside of the quite spacious Citi Field will result in a lot of long fly balls and warning track power. After playing in the little league Yankee Stadium for a few years, he's conditioned to getting under the ball more than he probably should. His defense will shine in the green pastures of Queens, but his average will suffer (again). Travis d'Arnaud, the young but injury-ridden catcher, will take the starting role now that John Buck has left New York. Ike Davis likely will lose his job to Josh Satin, therefore rounding out the infield with Daniel Murphy and Omar Quintanilla up the middle. I may be blowing their age out of proportion and underestimating Wright's ability to win games, but this year won't be pretty. 

Spring Break

With the recent bad news of Schilling's diagnosis and Kiner's passing, I think we are in order for a more optimistic post. This week a few friends and I finalized the plans for Spring Break this year: we're headed down to Lakeland to watch the Tigers play a handful of Spring Training games; 4 home, 1 away. We'll be seeing Tigers/Nationals three out of the five games, which is intriguing.

Before the 2013 season, MLB Network analysts (that word always looks like its spelled incorrectly, doesn't it? What a weird word) Tom Verducci and Larry Bowa picked the Nats to win it all, while Ken Rosenthal and Mitch Williams said the same for the Tigers (I can't let it go that Plesac picked the Blue Jays). Granted that was before the 2013 season began, but I feel that they both have put themselves in a position to face off in October of 2014. 

With the offseason trade of Doug Fister for Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol, and prospect Robbie Ray, which many say was a terrible trade for the Tigers, I can't wait to see Dougie in a Nats uniform. Red doesn't look as good as the old English D on that tall glass of water if you ask me, but I think he will succeed here. Most famous for his nasty 2-seam fastball, he does not allow a lot of home runs, only giving up 14 in 208 IP in 2013. Despite leading the league in hit batsmen last year, his HR/9 is phenomenal: the only time it was over 1 was his rookie year. But how much of that was due to his home park? His first three years were spent in Seattle at Safeco Field, one of the friendliest parks in the league to pitchers. Comerica Park in Detroit is the polar opposite. This past season, Comerica had a park factor of 1.139, 3rd in the league, meaning it was the 3rd friendliest park to hitters. Impressive work from Mr. Fister. Now that he's moving to the NL East, expect similar numbers - low home runs, high strike percentages, but also a lot of hits. Because Fister throws so many strikes, hitters are quick to jump on anything straight, hoping they won't see the sidewinding 2-seam. Last year, Fister's opponent BAbip was .333, allowing 229 hits, 3rd most in the league.

The addition of Matt Williams was a smart choice for the Nationals. Williams, who was around winning teams his whole player career including the champion Diamondbacks in 2001, knows what it takes to run a team, even though it is his first time. In an interview with ESPN, Williams shared that he would bring in old school baseball (slugging, defense), but also will bring in more sabermetrics to his position as well. Williams was an incredibly aggressive 3rd base coach for the Diamondbacks under Kirk Gibson, so I'm excited to see how that shows when we see them.  

The Nationals have a really young team, with an average age of 27.7. Their rotation is filthy; many call it the best in the league (I still think the Tigers has an edge). Flame throwing Stephen "China Doll" Strasburg, notoriously inconsistent Gio Gonzalez, silent NL wins leader Jordan Zimmermann, new Doug Fister, and a respectable back end in Ross Detwiler. Offensively, the Nats love to strikeout and hit the long ball. With a healthy Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman (who royally screwed my fantasy team last year by being hurt), their power numbers should go up just a little bit. In the....well, let's say 'rebuilding' NL East, the Nationals will be near the top. But not at the top. 

Fredi Gonzalez has the Braves running smoothly. Evan Gattis will be anchoring the field in a new role as starting catcher now that Brian McCann wanted some roughage and went to the Big Apple. Simmons, Freeman, and Heyward will continue to shine and be solid on both sides of the ball, and as we saw the greatest closer ever retire last year, the next best thing in Craig Kimbrel is right behind him. Even though they added Curtis Granderson, the Mets still will be below .500, especially with Matt Harvey missing year due to a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament. Captain America should be healthy the whole year, but the Mets still have more questions than answers, namely what is going on with Ike Davis and will EYJ get on base enough to steal?  The Phillies are getting Ryan Howard back as well as free agent pick up Marlon Byrd (two animals, one man), but are not getting any younger (except for their new manager Ryne Sandberg). Chooch, Chutley, and J-Roll are all entering their age 35 season but are expected to play 150+ games. Howard is 34, as is Cliff Lee, and Byrd is 36. Talent is high in some corners of the field, but there is a huge question mark at third base. The Marlins future is bright, especially with Rookie of the Year phenom Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton. They had an awesome offseason, signing veteran leader and champion Rafael Furcal, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, slugger Garrett Jones, and an incredibly underrated outfielder Reed Johnson. All come from successful teams in 2013 and can offer great examples of leadership. Like the Nationals, the Marlins are a wicked young team, and studs like Adeiny Hechavarria, Christian Yelich (Baseball America's #15 prospect), and Marcell Ozuna (#75) can learn a lot from their new veterans. 

Sorry for the lengthy post, but sunshine and baseball gets me excited. I won't get into predictions just yet, but for now, expect the Braves to win the East. 

As always, thanks for reading. I'll leave you with this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0H9VthNLh8. Enjoy.

Happy birthday to Vlad Guerrero and Moon Mullen!

Celebrating a Slugger's Birthday

Happy (belated) birthday to one of the purest sluggers ever to walk the earth: Hank Aaron. Aaron, 80 years old (@HenryLouisAaron on Twitter [good for him for being on Twitter]), is obviously known for his massive towering home runs, but here are some other things that make his career shine:

•       Career leader in RBI’s: with 2,297 steaks he likely will stay comfortably atop the leaderboard. Only two other players have eclipsed two grand (Babe Ruth, Cap Anson), and the closest actives are A-Rod with 1,969, but given his off-field shenanigans, it will be significantly harder to reach, ManRam with 1,831, and then all the way down to 34-year old Pujols with 1,498.
• ·      Career leader in total bases: an underrated stat, if you ask me. Aaron has 6,856 total bases. Pick up your jaws, folks, it gets better: he averaged 337 through 22 years of playing, and he leads the next player (Stan Musial) by 700 bases, almost two seasons worth. He also hit 400 in a year; we haven’t seen that since Derrek Lee’s 2005 season. Last year, Chris Davis, even with his breakout 53 home run season, got to 370.
• ·      Career .305 hitter: Typically, it’s hard for pure sluggers to be great average hitters as well, by the likes of Adam Dunn (440 home runs, .238 hitter) or Ryan Howard (311 home runs, .271 hitter). He struck out so rarely, 1,383 in 23 seasons to be exact (average of 68 K’s per season), and his average floated all the way up to .355 in 1959.
• ·      25 All-Star Game selections: need I say more?
• ·      Class: Hank Aaron is just a class act. When I worked at the Hall of Fame last summer, I heard nothing but amazing things about him; he remembers people’s names, he’s ready to donate something from his collection (hence the Hank Aaron room on the 3^rd floor), and will go head over heels for the Hall (I’m sure in his shape he could literally do that). He comes back for Induction every year and is always the fan favorite.

Many happy returns to you, Mr. Aaron. Thank you so much for you’ve done for the game, before, during, and after your career.

Other fun facts about Hank:

• ·      He never hit more than 47 home runs in a season.
• ·      He and his brother Tommie, also a Brave for smatterings 1962-1971, hold the record for most home runs between siblings at the Major League level.
• ·      He made the 1973 All-Star Team as a first basemen.

If you want chills, listen to one of these. Compilation of the three calls when Aaron hit his record breaking 715^th home run (can you ever go wrong with Vin Scully?).

https://archive.org/details/HankAaron-715thHomeRun-ThreeDifferentCalls