Yadi Molina

Tonight was a big night for baseball in terms of personal awards. The major award finalists were announced, including both AL and NL Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and MVPs, as well as all of the Gold Glove award winners. My Tigers were shutout from wins for another year, but the Orioles (3 winners), Royals (3), and Rockies (2) all had excellent showings.

Here's what really grasped me though. Yadier Molina, Cardinals catcher and the youngest of the Molina Catching Trio (Bengie, left, Jose, center, Yadier, right; all photos are courtesy of Baseball Reference)

won his 7th consecutive NL Gold Glove for catching tonight. Both Bengie and Jose won a World Series ring with the Angels in 2002, and with Yadi's win with the 2006 Cardinals, they became the first trio of brothers to ever win World Series rings. How fun would that be at Thanksgiving? 

But back to Yadi. I have a bold claim to make about him. This is bolder than bold Chex Mix;

it's bolder than when I remove my contacts shortly after eating hot wings; ladies and gentlemen this claim is bolder than Colorado (sweet mercy I hope someone gets that joke):

Yadier Molina is the best catcher of our generation.

(See I even put it in boldface type just in case you didn't hear me that it was bold.)

Yes, he's even better than Ivan Rodriguez. Now, Yadi is only 31 and has many more years of catching ahead of him, especially if he finds the fountain of youth like Pudge, who caught up to age 39 for the Nationals. Through age 31, Pudge had 10 Gold Gloves and a higher batting average than Yadi, but let's look a little deeper.

First, Yadi has a higher catching fielding percentage than Pudge. Through 11 seasons, he has a .994 fielding percentage and only 53 errors. Pudge's career fielding percentage is .991, still excellent, with 142 errors. Even if Yadi were to catch for 10 more years, essentially doubling his service time, his projection would jump just barely over 100 career errors, considerably fewer than Pudge. Pudge's cannon was great to have because he kept runners close and nabbed anything that moved, but that came to backfire at times with the ball trickling away from fielders or simply airmailing them. And even with Pudge's absurd 88 career pickoffs, let me tell you a secret: Yadi has 52 career pickoffs, and is on pace to pass him. Pudge got there faster, but Yadi has proven to be more consistent. 

Not just with pickoffs, but caught stealing percentage, too. Pudge led the league multiple times, but who was stealing bases? In 2001, Pudge caught 60% of base runners, a career high, but the AL steals leaders that year were Ichiro (487 career), Roger Cedeno (213), Alfonso Soriano (I know, right? 289), Mark McLemore (272), and Chuck Knoblauch (407). Of the top 5, Pudge only threw them out 3 times out of 9 chances throughout the 2001 season.

It was not a strong stealing class compared to Yadi's career high of 64% in 2005, when the NL steals leaders were Jose Reyes (455 career steals), Juan Pierre (614), Jimmy Rollins (453), Ryan Freel (only 143), and Willy Taveras (only 195 career, but 68 in 2008). Of the top 5 NL base stealers, Yadi threw them out 57.1% of the time, or 4 caught stealing out of 7 attempts.

This is the first thing I uploaded to the blog, even before any text. It's probably looped 1500 times now and gets better every time.

So Yadi's career high 64% is better than Pudge's career high 60%, it was against a higher quality selection of thieves, and he threw them out more than Pudge threw out the top 5. Pretty convincing if you ask me.

Second, look at leadership. Yadi doesn't only have 2 World Series rings, but he's also caught much better pitchers and made them better pitchers. The following stats and individual successes all come under Molina as the primary Cardinals starting catcher:

• Adam Wainwright: 2 CYA runner-ups, 3 ASGs, career highs in wins, ERA, CG, shutouts, WHIP
• Chris Carpenter: CYA, 3 ASGs, career highs in W, CG, lows in ERA, WHIP
• Edwin Jackson: 3rd lowest ERA, highest winning percentage 
• Jason Marquis: career ERA in 2004
• Kyle Lohse: Only top 10 CYA voting, career highs in wins, winning percentage, his only sub 3 ERA, and lowest career WHIP

While Pudge didn't have great pitchers to begin with, he didn't make them much better, either.

• Kenny Rogers - career high in wins was not with Pudge, lowest starting ERA was with Oakland
• Aaron Sele - lowest ERA was with Boston
• Kevin Brown - for the first player ever to sign a $100 million contract, he only had a career high in wins under Pudge; his careers in WHIP and ERA were with the Marlins
• Rick Helling - only had career high wins

You may argue that Yadi was given better pitchers talent wise. Then I would counter with Kyle Lohse's 2012 performance, something he has never duplicated in his career, or Jason Marquis who was always around, but never really great, while Pudge had some solid pitchers that blossomed after they had a different catcher. Maybe he had a different training regimen where they improved later. 

Pudge is the better offensive catcher, there is no doubt about that. However, Yadi's offense has improved vastly the last 5 years and if it weren't for a nasty thumb ligament injury that limited his swinging ability in 2014, he probably could have hit above .300 for the fourth straight year. After age 31, Pudge slowly began to trend downward offensively, though he had some peaks in the remaining 8 years. If Molina continues on his upward trend (.262 in 2010 to .319 in 2013), he could push his career average close to .290 (sitting at .284 right now). I think because of the offensive numbers and just how many times he led the league in caught stealing percentage, he'll be remembered as a better catcher, but he also played in the steroid era when steals were an ancient stat.

Pudge's thoughts towards Yadi.

Molina, especially playing in the NL and for manager La Russa, is of the small ball school, where catchers have to be quick and catlike rather than just have a great arm to not only throw runners out but to call pitches, know batters and runner tendencies, and then turn around and hit. 

With 6 All-Star games, 7 straight Gold Gloves (2 Platinum), and 2 rings, Molina is authoring an impressive Hall of Fame resume. However, knowing that chicks and writers dig the longball, Yadi's .284 career average and only 1297 hits through 11 years is not quite legendary quality. But we never know what the future holds; Yadi could blossom into a .300 hitter and rewrite the offensive history books for catchers. But for now, I hope you agree with me through my research that Yadi Molina is the best catcher of the three Molinas and of this generation. 

Thanks for reading. 

Oscar Taveras

I don't need to be the one to tell you that life is fragile. 

Oscar Taveras, 22-year old outfielder for the St. Louis Cardinals, was killed in a car accident with his girlfriend in Puerto Plata, Dominican Republic, his hometown. His agent confirmed the tragedy late last night and the news spread like wildfire even on to the biggest stage.

Taveras saw spurts of action in 2014 and was expected to make a run for one of the starting outfield spots on the 2015 roster. He was an impressive combination of speed and power that made tracking fly balls easy and hitting home runs even easier. Here's an example of Taveras' skill in the NLCS, when he hit a clutch moonshot to right to tie the game at 3 in the 7th. That at-bat was his last Major League action. 

Taveras was born June 19, 1992. One month younger than me to the date. To begin the season, he was ranked as the #3 prospect across the board (MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus), and to be honest, I had him as my 2014 NL Rookie of the Year. I thought he would get more playing time this year; I even drafted him in fantasy baseball thinking he would be a mid-May call-up and have a Puig like effect on the game. 

It's kind of creepy thinking about that knowing what we know now. 

I wrote a post a few weeks ago about Derek Jeter's last at-bat and the end of Tiger Stadium and how it was such a poetic ending and how sports are such redeeming moments in our eyes. But what about this? How does this make any sense? How can there be a reason for an incredibly talented 22 year old kid to be taken in such a violent fashion so soon? Sports are something we can get lost in, forget the woes of our daily lives and believe in something bigger than ourselves; but what happens when the woes of sports creep into our daily lives? I guess this is poetic too, but rather than Whitman writing this story, it's Dickinson. 

This past weekend was a series of rivalry games for my fandom. Michigan and Michigan State squared off on the gridiron, and I watched intently and hopefully, only to see Michigan take a 35-11 drubbing and leave the fields to chants of "little sister." Chelsea, my favorite English football club, faced the hated Manchester United in a matchup of EPL giants and again, I was drawn into the simplicity of the game only to see Chelsea concede a 94th minute goal off of a questionable free kick to end the game in a painful draw.

My teams didn't win. They broke my heart, even, considering it was a rivalry weekend. But what happened to Taveras doesn't even come close. And what really shook me was how baseball characters put their lives on hold to bid another one goodbye, specifically the Cardinals' biggest rival. The Cubs and Cardinals have hated each other for as long as either one was a franchise, but they put all that aside Sunday night to pause and recognize the tragedy that had just occurred. 

At work this morning, I complained about how my teams let me down. But then I paused and kicked myself for saying that because I didn't lose anyone close to me.

Giants outfielder Juan Perez, though 5 years older than Taveras, is from the Dominican Republic along with Taveras. The two had played on some younger teams together and Perez took the loss very hard. In the middle of the 5th inning, Perez wandered down the dugout towards where Fox broadcaster Erin Andrews was stationed.

His eye caught her prompter and saw the word "Taveras" which was odd considering the Giants had defeated the Cardinals a few weeks ago to advance to this very World Series. 

What happened next is heartbreaking. Perez watched in horror as he saw the death of a close friend develop before his very eyes. Can you imagine finding out that way? Not through a friend or family member or hospital official - but on a broadcasting monitor on the other end of the dugout. 

You'll see Taveras in the white, second from the left. Perez is the lone Giant facing the camera.

Jorge Ortiz of USA Today writes more here.

The same thing happened to Angels pitcher Nick Adenhart in the 2009 season. Adenhart pitched in a single game in April of 2009, allowing 7 hits over 6 shutout innings against the A's. The following night, Adenhart and two others were struck by a drunk driver and killed on impact, ending the hopeful career of a 22-year old pitcher who had overcome major elbow surgery to just get to the big stage. The Angels' finished the year with his jersey hanging in their dugout 

and celebrated mightily when they clinched the AL West crown. 

I'm guessing the Cardinals will do something similar, whether it be a jersey patch or an outfield pad, or a jersey in the dugout. Adenhart or Taveras, it doesn't make it any easier to swallow. I think now that I'm actually 22 and the same age as they both were when they passed wakes me up a little bit, forcing me hang my head in mourning but also thankful that I have never lost anyone close in my life. 

I'm not writing this to tell you to appreciate every breath or take life one step at a time or any other YOLO-esque cliche, because you probably have enough of those crocheted into a throw pillow. I'm just trying to tell you that even while sports are so great because of stories like Jeter and Tiger Stadium, it also is that much harder because of the emotional investment we have. Very few of us probably ever met Oscar Taveras let alone knew him, so why are we so sad about this? It's because of his potential and what could have been. It's because it just doesn't seem fair that such a rare physical specimen is gone in the blink of an eye. It's because for the sorrow that a loss brings, a win can be mean so much more than beating your rival.

Remember Juan Perez, the poor guy that found out he lost a friend over a TV monitor? He slapped a two run double three innings later off of the best AL reliever this season. 

I can only imagine what Perez felt after that hit. 

And again, I can only imagine what the Taveras family is going through right now. 

Thanks for reading. And please, if you will, keep Taveras, his family, and the Cardinals in your thoughts. 

More Predictions (Lucky You)

With the divisional races and postseason awards handed out, I think now is the time to determine the postseason. Here's what the scene looks like with my predictions right now:

AL East: Boston 100-62 (1 seed)
AL Central: Detroit 95-67 (2 seed)
AL West: Oakland 92-70 (3 seed)
AL WC 1: Cleveland 93-69 (4 or 5, depending on their head-to-head with Tampa in the regular season - for sake of argument, I think the Indians will be 4)
AL WC 2: Tampa Bay 93-69 (5; see above)

ALDS 1: Tampa over Boston, 3-2
ALDS 2: Detroit over Oakland, 3-2
ALCS: Detroit over Tampa, 4-1

I think Tampa will take the play in game. David Price in clutch situations is just too much to handle, unless Jason Giambi steps up big time and has yet another walk off home run. They're just deeper at every position except manager, and playing in a stronger division, they'll be battle tested compared to the Indians, who get 40 games against the White Sox and Twins.

The Rays made a compelling argument last year to beat the Red Sox in the ALDS but couldn't quite complete the upset. I think this year is their year - with Price back and now Grant Balfour at their back end - look out. On the other side, we'll see the third straight Tigers/A's ALDS and get another Tigers berth in a thrilling series. Detroit however is a much stronger team offensively than the Rays, making them my choice to go to the World Series. The Rays one win will come from Price.

NL East: Atlanta 94-68 (3 seed)
NL Central: St. Louis 102-60 (1 seed)
NL West: Los Angeles 98-64 (2 seed)
NL WC 1: Cincinnati 94-68 (4 seed)
NL WC 2: Pittsburgh 93-69

NLDS 1: St. Louis over Cincinnati, 3-1
NLDS 2: Los Angeles over Atlanta, 3-1
NLCS: St. Louis over LA, 4-2 
So other than the Wild Card game, this is identical. I really don't see this happening any other way, I mean maybe the Nationals can squeeze into a playoff spot but they won't get past the DS - they're too streaky, and it all depends on how hot they are at the end of the year. I'm not putting my money on anyone but the Cardinals this year.

World Series: 2006 rematch, Tigers vs. Cardinals. We don't know who will have home field advantage until July of this year, and I think that will play a big factor. If the Tigers want to have a shot, they'll need to have home field and win the first two in the Motor City. Without home field, it will be nearly impossible to win - last year, the Cardinals went 54-27 at Busch Stadium, the best home record in the MLB. 

My prediction: Cardinals over Tigers, 4-2
I'm a Tigers fan. This kills me to say, but the Cardinals are just too good. Flawless defense, deep hitting at every position, and a deep pitching rotation led by the unflappable Adam Wainwright. Sure the Tigers are great too, the best hitter in the game and 2 of the last 3 Cy Young winners, but their role players just can't quite get the job done. Especially in an NL park, the bench players need to be able to shine in a pinch - I don't have a lot of faith in Steve Lombardozzi or Andy Dirks with the game on the line. The Cardinals were two wins away last year.

The Tigers were four. 

If this matchup plays out, then expect very low scoring, toughly fought, gritty and scrappy baseball games. It will be a battle of two of baseball's oldest and most historic teams battling it out for yet another crown. St. Louis is looking to add to their NL record 11 championships, and the Tigers are seeking their first since 1984. It should be one of the most exciting ones in recent history. 

I'm excited, but also heartbroken by this. I hope I'm wrong. 

What are your thoughts? Thanks for reading!

2014 Predictions: NL Central

Holy cow, what a stacked division. I had a tough time figuring this one out. It seems that a lot of divisions are really top heavy, with two or three great teams, and then two or three...other teams, and the NL Central is no exception. Expect the Cardinals to be playing late into the season again. 

NL Central

1. St. Louis 102-60
I have no problem labeling the Cardinals as the only team to win 100 games this year. I think they have the top-to-bottom lineup, a young rotation, a smattering of veteran leadership, and an tactical wizard of a manager in Mike Matheny. The Cardinals didn't make a lot of offseason moves, but they made highly efficient ones. Some of you might be thinking "how is a move efficient, Bill?" Well let me tell you. With the trade of David Freese and Fernando Salas to the Angels for Peter Bourjos, they freed up a spot for rising star Matt Carpenter (.318/.392/.481) at third, allowing newcomer Kolten Wong to start at second. Despite his faux pas in the World Series, the Cardinals have put a lot of stock into him and see a bright future. If he doesn't work out, then Mark Ellis (free agent from the Dodgers) will do a good job filling in. On the other side of second base, shortstop Jhonny Peralta will make his NL debut. To many, Peralta is a delinquent and his 4 year, $52 million contract is a negative incentive for PEDs. I agree to a certain extent with that, but he's paid his dues and I think he knows not to do it again. Also, despite his increased power numbers, Peralta also went through a swing change in the 2013 offseason, creating more of a line drive swing, allowing him to hit .303 before his suspension. His range at shortstop isn't good but the balls he gets to are fielded perfectly; that's why it's smart to have a quick third and second basemen - maybe they can reach some things he won't. Back to the outfield: though seeing perennial all-star Carlos Beltran go to New York was hard, Cardinals fans and administrators have a secret weapon in Oscar Taveras, who is likely to start in right this year. If he doesn't, then Jon Jay will. Either one is a good bet; Jay is a career .293 hitter and has good speed on the base paths. Taveras is an overwhelmingly popular pick for NL ROY. So pick your poison Cardinals. As always, Yadier Molina will be the best catcher in the NL (arguably the whole league now that Joe Mauer is no longer a catcher) again, and lead the team deep into the postseason. The Boston Globe called him a player to build around, and I could not agree more; he's a tactician, a great hitter, and stays out of trouble.

I'll leave you to chew on this: the Cardinals had a run differential last year of +187. Second to whom? The World Champion Red Sox. Don't be surprised if they hit +200 this year. 

2. Cincinnati 94-68
I promise you, even though I didn't pick the people's choice Pittsburgh Pirates to be near the top again, I still have a heart and soul. I think the Reds made better moves to compete. First and foremost, they fired bunt happy manager Dusty Baker and hired pitching coach Bryan Price. Here's why I like this move: A) it's hiring from within so Price knows the system and the players. Chemistry won't be an issue. B) It's not Dusty Baker. Baker is a fine manager, but only in the regular season. He's been graced with some incredibly talented teams (2002 Giants, 2003 Cubs, 2012 Reds) and could only take one pennant in 20 years managing. Now even though they lost Shin Soo Choo, speedster Billy Hamilton is taking his place, and if his average stays healthy, he could make a run at ROY. Rounding out the outfield with Jay Bruce and Chris Heisey, they will be in good shape on both sides of the ball. The infield is defensively sound, but sometimes lacking offensively. 2010 MVP Joey Votto is exempt from that statement with his .314 average and consistently league-leading OBP. Brandon Phillips (Dat Dude)

is a supplier of power, but not a lot of consistency. Despite his trade rumors he will be back in Cincy this year. Cozart and Frazier, hitting .254 and .234 respectively last year, will be the everyday starters on the left side. Cozart went through swing reconstruction this offseason, and I am eager if he can reach his full gap-to-gap potential. Having just signed Homer Bailey to 6 years and $105 million, the Reds are looking into the future, eyeing a title not this year, but definitely before 2020. Surrounding him with Mat Latos, Mike Leake (fantasy steal), and Johnny Cueto makes for a dangerous rotation (good dangerous).

3. Pittsburgh 93-69
I don't even know if its statistically possible to have three teams win 90 games in a season in the same division, but it's happening. Mainly because these three will beat up on the other two remaining teams, but nonetheless, the Pirates are still a great team. Neil Walker is an under-the-radar stud (probably just because he's Don Kelly's brother-in-law), Clint Barmes is a good defender, and Pedro Alvarez broke out last year to lead the NL in home runs. He only hit .233 but that's not what he's paid to do, am I right? Of course I am, that's why you've read this far. Naturally, we will see Cutch produce out of his mind, and young Starling Marte will follow suit and learn a lot. Losing AJ Burnett will hurt, but the signing of Edinson Volquez will bolster that somewhat; last year Burnett went 10-11, Volquez 9-12. He will likely be the 3rd or 4th starter, behind Francisco Liriano (who emerged late in the season as a pitcher who means business), Jeff Locke, and 22-year old Gerrit Cole. Clint Hurdle is an excellent manager, taking a team that batted .245 and sending them to their first playoff seed in over 20 years. They'll be back on the cornrows of MLB '13 The Show coverboy Andrew McCutchen.

4. Chicago 69-93
The outfield in Wrigleyville will look different at the beginning of next season. Not the physical grass, but who's playing there. Last year, it was Soriano, DeJesus, and Schierholtz. This year it will likely be Ryan Sweeney, Junior Lake (who unfortunately sacrificed rookie status last year, otherwise he could have made a run at ROY), and Schierholtz. Chris Coghlan will be roving as a 4th outfielder. Lake is a young injection of energy. Good fielder (came up as a shortstop) and base stealer, but he strikes out far too often to be effective long term. In 64 games in 2013, he struck out 68 times, but he also hit .284. We'll see what hitting coach Bill Mueller has in store for him this year in Arizona. The infield will be the same: Valbuena, Castro, Barney, Rizzo: all defense, little offense. The four of them hit a combined .226, with only Rizzo showing decent power. Having "Bad Scrabble Board" Jeff Samardzija

back as the ace will help matters, otherwise 9-12 Travis Wood is the ace. Jake Arrieta will return from injury, Jason Hammel is a good four starter, with the heavy loser (8-18 in 2013) Edwin Jackson bringing up the rear. Jose Veras (3.02 ERA in 2013) is a great pick up; Cubs fans will enjoy not have Marmol come in to close games, and young Pedro Strop will do swell in the setup role. New manager Rick Renteria will most likely be on a pretty short leash; 4 managers in 8 years, 13 in the last 23 years.

5. Milwaukee 65-97
Last year, the Brewers went 74-88, which wasn't bad considering they lost their best player, Ryan Braun, for a hefty suspension. I do not foresee that being their fortune this year. 'But Carlos Gomez had a career year!' Exactly: a career year. Not a year to change his career. He's a career .255 hitter. Aramis Ramirez, if he stays healthy, will have a little bit of relief since Braun is returning to the clean-up slot. 23-year old shortstop Jean Segura is an incredibly bright spot, batting .294 last season (highest of the non-dopers). Scooter Gennett is another solid young middle infielder, and he'll likely take over for .209 Rickie Weeks, but how much will he be able to hold up throughout the entire season? The pitching staff did add Matt Garza, a much needed ace, but he'll be pitching most of his games against the aforementioned Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates, so his offense will have to show up (not likely). Lyle Overbay will take over at first, and as much as I'd like to say he'll repeat what he did in New York last year (which was still only .240), I don't think they'll get much production out of him. They aren't a terrible team, but they also lost Corey Hart and play in a wicked division. Unfortunately, I don't think Bernie Brewer will be sliding too much this year.

Thanks for reading! Almost done with the divisions!