Yadi Molina

Tonight was a big night for baseball in terms of personal awards. The major award finalists were announced, including both AL and NL Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and MVPs, as well as all of the Gold Glove award winners. My Tigers were shutout from wins for another year, but the Orioles (3 winners), Royals (3), and Rockies (2) all had excellent showings.

Here's what really grasped me though. Yadier Molina, Cardinals catcher and the youngest of the Molina Catching Trio (Bengie, left, Jose, center, Yadier, right; all photos are courtesy of Baseball Reference)

won his 7th consecutive NL Gold Glove for catching tonight. Both Bengie and Jose won a World Series ring with the Angels in 2002, and with Yadi's win with the 2006 Cardinals, they became the first trio of brothers to ever win World Series rings. How fun would that be at Thanksgiving? 

But back to Yadi. I have a bold claim to make about him. This is bolder than bold Chex Mix;

it's bolder than when I remove my contacts shortly after eating hot wings; ladies and gentlemen this claim is bolder than Colorado (sweet mercy I hope someone gets that joke):

Yadier Molina is the best catcher of our generation.

(See I even put it in boldface type just in case you didn't hear me that it was bold.)

Yes, he's even better than Ivan Rodriguez. Now, Yadi is only 31 and has many more years of catching ahead of him, especially if he finds the fountain of youth like Pudge, who caught up to age 39 for the Nationals. Through age 31, Pudge had 10 Gold Gloves and a higher batting average than Yadi, but let's look a little deeper.

First, Yadi has a higher catching fielding percentage than Pudge. Through 11 seasons, he has a .994 fielding percentage and only 53 errors. Pudge's career fielding percentage is .991, still excellent, with 142 errors. Even if Yadi were to catch for 10 more years, essentially doubling his service time, his projection would jump just barely over 100 career errors, considerably fewer than Pudge. Pudge's cannon was great to have because he kept runners close and nabbed anything that moved, but that came to backfire at times with the ball trickling away from fielders or simply airmailing them. And even with Pudge's absurd 88 career pickoffs, let me tell you a secret: Yadi has 52 career pickoffs, and is on pace to pass him. Pudge got there faster, but Yadi has proven to be more consistent. 

Not just with pickoffs, but caught stealing percentage, too. Pudge led the league multiple times, but who was stealing bases? In 2001, Pudge caught 60% of base runners, a career high, but the AL steals leaders that year were Ichiro (487 career), Roger Cedeno (213), Alfonso Soriano (I know, right? 289), Mark McLemore (272), and Chuck Knoblauch (407). Of the top 5, Pudge only threw them out 3 times out of 9 chances throughout the 2001 season.

It was not a strong stealing class compared to Yadi's career high of 64% in 2005, when the NL steals leaders were Jose Reyes (455 career steals), Juan Pierre (614), Jimmy Rollins (453), Ryan Freel (only 143), and Willy Taveras (only 195 career, but 68 in 2008). Of the top 5 NL base stealers, Yadi threw them out 57.1% of the time, or 4 caught stealing out of 7 attempts.

This is the first thing I uploaded to the blog, even before any text. It's probably looped 1500 times now and gets better every time.

So Yadi's career high 64% is better than Pudge's career high 60%, it was against a higher quality selection of thieves, and he threw them out more than Pudge threw out the top 5. Pretty convincing if you ask me.

Second, look at leadership. Yadi doesn't only have 2 World Series rings, but he's also caught much better pitchers and made them better pitchers. The following stats and individual successes all come under Molina as the primary Cardinals starting catcher:

• Adam Wainwright: 2 CYA runner-ups, 3 ASGs, career highs in wins, ERA, CG, shutouts, WHIP
• Chris Carpenter: CYA, 3 ASGs, career highs in W, CG, lows in ERA, WHIP
• Edwin Jackson: 3rd lowest ERA, highest winning percentage 
• Jason Marquis: career ERA in 2004
• Kyle Lohse: Only top 10 CYA voting, career highs in wins, winning percentage, his only sub 3 ERA, and lowest career WHIP

While Pudge didn't have great pitchers to begin with, he didn't make them much better, either.

• Kenny Rogers - career high in wins was not with Pudge, lowest starting ERA was with Oakland
• Aaron Sele - lowest ERA was with Boston
• Kevin Brown - for the first player ever to sign a $100 million contract, he only had a career high in wins under Pudge; his careers in WHIP and ERA were with the Marlins
• Rick Helling - only had career high wins

You may argue that Yadi was given better pitchers talent wise. Then I would counter with Kyle Lohse's 2012 performance, something he has never duplicated in his career, or Jason Marquis who was always around, but never really great, while Pudge had some solid pitchers that blossomed after they had a different catcher. Maybe he had a different training regimen where they improved later. 

Pudge is the better offensive catcher, there is no doubt about that. However, Yadi's offense has improved vastly the last 5 years and if it weren't for a nasty thumb ligament injury that limited his swinging ability in 2014, he probably could have hit above .300 for the fourth straight year. After age 31, Pudge slowly began to trend downward offensively, though he had some peaks in the remaining 8 years. If Molina continues on his upward trend (.262 in 2010 to .319 in 2013), he could push his career average close to .290 (sitting at .284 right now). I think because of the offensive numbers and just how many times he led the league in caught stealing percentage, he'll be remembered as a better catcher, but he also played in the steroid era when steals were an ancient stat.

Pudge's thoughts towards Yadi.

Molina, especially playing in the NL and for manager La Russa, is of the small ball school, where catchers have to be quick and catlike rather than just have a great arm to not only throw runners out but to call pitches, know batters and runner tendencies, and then turn around and hit. 

With 6 All-Star games, 7 straight Gold Gloves (2 Platinum), and 2 rings, Molina is authoring an impressive Hall of Fame resume. However, knowing that chicks and writers dig the longball, Yadi's .284 career average and only 1297 hits through 11 years is not quite legendary quality. But we never know what the future holds; Yadi could blossom into a .300 hitter and rewrite the offensive history books for catchers. But for now, I hope you agree with me through my research that Yadi Molina is the best catcher of the three Molinas and of this generation. 

Thanks for reading. 

2014 Postseason, Part II

Well I'm a day late on my promise of delivering the NL Offseason busy body, but hey the World Series was on last night. I had a date with good baseball, can you blame me? No, I didn't think so.

Either way, I'll be getting to it right now. With Joe Maddon now on the market as the top 'free agent' manager, it will be interesting to see how some teams shape their offseason pickups around their managerial search. For example, if Minnesota signs Joe Maddon, he could be bringing Ben Zobrist with him and push Trevor Plouffe to left to replace Josh Willingham. This is all conjecture, but there are numerous situations where I can see Maddon signing and either bringing in some of his own or management taking his word to sign someone else. 

But this isn't about Joe Maddon, it's about NL teams that are going to make some aggressive moves towards the top. The first team that came to my mind was the Cubs; they have a core of strong, young talent in Baez, Bryant, Soler, etc., that will help their anemic offense perk up a bit. Sure they'll set every NL record possible for strikeouts but they'll also hit 40 home runs each, so you ask the Cubs fans what they'd rather have. President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein has already put together winning teams (2004 and 2007 Red Sox) and is only a few steps away from putting the Cubs back on the big stage. But he already made a lot of moves late in 2014 for starting pitching (Felix Doubront, Tsuyoshi Wada, Jacob Turner, etc.), so its a degree of quality issue. I wrote a post a few months ago citing the Cubs as the top target for Max Scherzer or Jon Lester signing, but we'll see if management wants to sign one of them and write off one of their new arrivals. Either way, you won't win a World Series with Edwin Jackson losing 15 games a year (he's 14-33 as a Cub). 

The point is, I think the Cubs will be in the market for either a closer or a starting pitcher. Not both. But they won't be the top movers.

The Braves will. 

In 2014, the Braves limped to the finish, going 21-31 in August and September and watching not only the Nationals fly by them but also the Mets catch up to them and tie them for 2nd in the East. For a fan base that has witnessed 14 straight division championships, losing the division is a shock let alone finishing a season under .500 (they haven't been under .500 since 1990). Much like the Red Sox, the focus of Thursday's blog, they are used to winning and putting out a product like 2014 is unacceptable. They have a new stadium coming in and it would feel hollow putting a bad team there. 

The Braves aren't a bad team, but their weak is weaker than other team's weaker. 

Kind of like this, but opposite.

For example: BJ Upton led the team in strikeouts but played in fewer games than Justin Upton, Andrelton Simmons, Jason Heyward, and Freddie Freeman. His .208 batting average was also the lowest of anyone on the team with more than 300 at-bats. Not a good combination, leading the team in K's and taking the rear in batting average. If he hit 29 home runs and 102 RBIs like his brother in right field then it wold be a different story, but he only hit 12 home runs and 35 RBIs. Centerfield is a strong weakness, but he is signed through 2018 and the Braves don't have a strong farm system when it comes to outfield. Victor Reyes is their top outfield prospect and he turned 20 three weeks ago. His ETA to the majors is 2017 and I don't think the Braves will sit on their hands and wait patiently for a prospect to develop in hopes that he can take over for BJ Upton.

As far as solutions go, the centerfield free agent market is thin. Colby Rasmus of the Blue Jays seems to be the best bona fide centerfield option considering Denard Span will most likely re-sign with the Nationals. Rasmus is not only an average player but he is a danger to the clubhouse too. Tony La Russa essentially booted him from the Cardinals clubhouse and hasn't made many friends in Canada, either - that's hard to do! However, Emilio Bonifacio and Nori Aoki are free agents and could be great fits at the top of the order. 

Another weakness is starting pitching. Signing Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd in the offseason made sense but they both missed the entire season due to injury. The Braves made do with Harang and Santana and they pitched well, but not to the caliber that they were hoping. Keep in mind the Hall of Fame just inducted two Braves pitchers so they are used to the highest quality of pitching. You don't find a Maddux or Glavine every day but I think they can do better than Gavin Floyd and Brandon Beachy. That's why this year I think they'll be hunting some serious free agent game. The first name that comes to mind is Max Scherzer. I know in a previous post I said the Cubs would go after him and I would love it if he stayed a Tiger, but he can go to Atlanta still on a contending team and be their ace (if not ace then a close second to Julio Teheran). Scherzer had 3 quality wins stolen from him as a Tiger - he led the AL with 18 wins and could have had 21 if the bullpen kept his work intact. Imagine if he was with the Braves and had oh, Johnny Venters in the 8th and Craig freaking Kimbrel in the 9th inning? He wouldn't have to worry about holding a lead then. 

Another option would be James Shields. Big Game James has not shone as brightly in this postseason but in the 2014 regular season, he posted a 14-8 record with a 3.21 ERA, which would have been tied for most wins on the Braves staff and 3rd best starters' ERA. Jon Lester (unlikely) and Aaron Harang (likely to re-sign) are free agents but I think Shields would be a relatively cheap and successful option for the long term.

Again, I'm no GM but I think Braves have deep enough pockets and a good enough talent pool around them that they could hop right back into competition, even with the Nats right in the same division. We'll see.

Thanks for reading.

My NL All-Star Picks

I'm back for more. You seem like you're back for more too. After a beautiful day off, I'm ready to tackle the NL All-Star roster. The second round of voting came out today, but for the sake of consistency (put differently: I was too tired to write yesterday after a long day of painting in the sun), I'll be using the May 28th numbers as well. So here we go! (Disclaimer - there is no NL DH listed)

First Base

Who's winning: Adrian Gonzalez (.269/.347/.500)

Who should be winning: Paul Goldschmidt (.299/.354/.521)

The 32-year old Gonzalez is having an underwhelming season for the (let's be honest) underwhelming 30-28 Dodgers, hitting only .269 when he is a career .293 hitter. His OBP and slugging are pretty much exactly where his career numbers are, but his BABIP is about 20 points below the MLB average, showing that he has hit either a lot of "at 'em" balls or the gross amount of shifts are working. Staying in the NL West, 2013 MVP snub Paul Goldschmidt is having a solid year for the 23-36 Diamondbacks, hitting .299 and slugging right around his career average (nowhere near last year's outstanding number of .551). Going into play as of 6/2, Goldy is tied for the NL lead in doubles (22) and hits (70). I honestly think that since the Dbacks are doing poorly and that Arizona is such a smaller market than LA, Goldy is being left out in the desert. Freddie Freeman is a hot step behind Goldschmidt, hitting .297 and slugging .512.

Second Base

Who's winning: Chase Utley (.320/.381/.517)

Who should be winning: Utley

In my mind, this race is wrapped up unless Chutley decides to try hitting righty until July. Of the top 5 vote-getters at 2nd base, Utley is the only one hitting above .300. Furthermore, of those same top 5 vote-getters (Utley, Gordon, Phillips, Rendon, Walker), there a 50 point gap between he and the next highest average (Dee Gordon's, .280). The 2014 Phillies are like a 1995 Cadillac - great back in their day, but there are just better options now. But Utley has proven that he is more than just an old Caddy; he has aged quite nicely and so far this season has managed to stay healthy and is tied with Goldschmidt for the NL lead in doubles with 22. In fact, if the season were to end today, he would beat his career averages in BA, OBP, and SLG%. 

Shortstop

Who's winning: Troy Tulowitzki (.350/.450/.661)

Who should be winning: Tulowitzki

Okay I take back what I said about 2nd base being wrapped up. THIS is wrapped up. Tulowitzki should be starting for both sides in the ASG, that's how hot he is. He has been injury prone the last few years and we are finally seeing him play to his full potential, leading the NL in runs (45) and slugging, and leading the MLB in average, on-base percentage, and OPS.

I don't even know how to react to how good he is this year.

From a shortstop. Shortstops aren't supposed to be great hitters - and a shortstop is leading the most important offensive categories. He's on pace to have career records in about every single offensive category, except strikeouts. He is the hottest player in the game right now.

Third Base

Who's winning: Nolan Arenado (.305/.333/.489)

Who should be winning: David Wright (.293/.340/.397)

This was about a coin flip for me, I had a really hard time picking between he and David Wright. Arenado had that crazy 28 game hitting streak earlier this year but he doesn't walk much (see the OBP) and hits for very little power, especially at Coors Field. He is a bright young star but I'd pick Captain America. David Wright is tied for the NL lead in hits with 70, but has a lower average (.293) and slugging percentage (.397). That said, it is a heck of a lot harder to slug in a place like Citi Field versus Coors Field. I really don't know. I'd go with the vet in David Wright.

Catcher

Who's winning: Yadier Molina (.309/.354/.448)

Who should be winning: Yadi

Molina has come into his element as a hitter these past few years, posting a .313 average since 2011 while his career average is .285. Molina's slugging is way up this year compared to his career .406 and, as always, his handling of the pitching staff is second to none, as proven by Wainwright's incredible start. Lynn, Miller, and Wacha are also having great years, all posting ERAs below 3.50. In my NL predictions post from a few months ago, I praised Molina for his leadership and intangibles. He deserves an MVP and plays the catching position right - he should be the All-Star.

Outfield
Who's winning: Charlie Blackmon (.310/.347/.512), Andrew McCutchen (.307/.427/.470), Ryan Braun (.327/.367/.595)

Who should be winning: Yasiel Puig (.347/.437/.618), Giancarlo Stanton (.311/.407/.612), Braun

Pains me to write those. We know Braun is a liar and a cheat and I hate him for it, but he's not alone. Nelson Cruz took on a suspension last year as well and I selected him to start at DH for the AL. Braun is having a great year for the surprise Brewers - his slugging percentage is right where it was in his 2011 MVP season and you can't say no to that average. Stanton is just a machine this year in terms of home runs and hitting with RISP (he leads the NL in home runs and RBI), but his average is so much higher than it has been in the past that he has become even more of a weapon. Before, he was basically a longball threat, but now he is a doubles threat, a singles threat, etc. Wherever you pitch it, he is lethal (so is his wardrobe - check out the arm sleeve on Memorial Day). 

He has done so much for the Marlins that he deserves a start. And then we come to Puig. You all know I dislike Puig because of his attitude but there is no denying his skills. I wrote about him earlier in my Top 10 Under 25 post and he is having a heck of a year. The numbers agree. It hurts that 2 out of the 3 starters in the outfield are shady characters but the numbers do not lie. 

Pitcher

Johnny Cueto (5-4, 1.68 ERA, .76 WHIP). I can see arguments for Wainwright and Grienke, but Cueto's stuff is just filthy.

It's so filthy I want to reiterate how filthy it is with the Google definition of filthy.

He leads the MLB in K's (92), ERA (1.68), WHIP (.76 - wow), Batting average against (.151), complete games, and shutouts. The dude is earning his $10M salary this year and deserves the start despite his average record. When you lead in this many categories, you're doing something right. 

So there it is. Not a lot of arguing on my part except for the outfield. There are a lot of Rockies out there which goes in line with my NL West prediction post - they can hit the cover off the ball (first in the NL in team runs, hits, home runs), but pitching is shaky at best (2nd last in NL in ERA, last in K's), hence their 28-28 record. Honestly, if I were to make a call, I think the AL would win but Mike Matheny knows his stuff. I cannot wait for the ASG in the beautiful Target Field in Minnesota.

Hope your Monday was all you had hoped. Thanks for reading.