Spring Training Recap

So who missed me?

**crowd goes wild**

That's what I thought. Thank you, thank you. We got in from Lakeland late last night to the dreary Holland snowy weather. If nothing else, it was nice just to be in warmth for a few days - I'll take 75 and sunny over 6 months of winter any day. Here's my recap of the games we say:

Game 1: Tigers 14, Astros 3

The predictions about the Astros were true as of March 16. After the 2nd inning, the Tigers were up 10-0. Lucas Harrell got pounded, giving up a home run to Ian Kinsler and hobbled home with 9 earned runs (10 total) on 12 hits in 1.2 to suffer an ERA implosion of 10.13. Currently while I am writing this though, he has pitched 4 scoreless innings - so I'm glad to see he's recovered. On the other side, Scherzer (whom we saw at dinner on Tuesday night) pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowing three runs on some very hard hit balls in the gaps. In a postgame interview he said he was not entirely happy with the start but he did not walk anyone - very good for a strikeout pitcher. After Scherzer, pitchers Blaine Hardy, Ian Krol, Jhan Martinez, and Luke Putkonen all pitched scoreless innings to keep the Astros to 3 runs. Torii Hunter stayed scalding hot, going 2 for 3 with a double, sending his average up to .367 for the spring. Tigers outfielder Tyler Collins continued to turn heads, ending the game a double short of the cycle. Also, I am making the conclusion that Astros first round pick Carlos Correa is just like Starlin Castro: amazingly smooth fielder, but a lengthy swing will create some offensive stagnation in the future. 

Game 2: Tigers 2, Nationals 1

Boy what a thriller - even for Spring Training. The Nationals' stadium, Space Coast Stadium, is really cool. Despite there being a strong lack of shade and a visible speedometer for the fans to witness how fast Verlander was throwing, it's a nice place. 

The game itself was exciting. We got there late and couldn't witness the first Tigers run, but got to witness Verlander mow down the Nationals, giving up one hit (to Zimmerman in his last inning of work) and threw fewer than 50 pitches to 16 batters. Incredible efficiency for his first start coming off of oblique surgery, solidifying manager Ausmus' choice to name him the Opening Day starter. The Nationals scored a run on an Evan Reed passed ball, and the game was locked 1-1 for another few innings until Danny Worth laced a double down the left field line, his fourth of the spring, scoring Steve Lombardozzi who had just stolen 2nd and 3rd consecutively against his former team. While it was a nice pitchers duel, the Nationals only collected three hits the whole game (never in the same inning) and struggled to even push a runner past second, confirming my fear that they live and die by the long ball. Similarly, the Tigers RISP woes continue from last year against good pitching, going 1-11 the game. Granted, a lot of the guys playing late will be AA or AAA players but the point rings true. We'll be seeing both of them in October, regardless. The pitching was incredibly high quality. Important note: Don Kelly got an RBI. 

Game 3: Tigers vs. Nationals, cancelled

Though this game was rained out, the Nats took batting practice maybe 30 feet away from where we parked, necessitating these photos: 

Aside from the skies looking ominous, I really enjoyed getting this close to some of the players. Tyler Clippard looks exactly like one of my English professors and Jamey Carroll is a great fielder. The ageless wonder.

Game 4: Tigers 18, Blue Jays 4 (SS) 

Yes, you read that correctly. I was pumped to see the Jays because when you think about it, with a lineup of Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista, Lind, Rasmus, Izturis, they can do some serious damage. Though they did not do any damage today. Tigers starter Drew Smyly had an incredibly efficient 5 innings of work, walking one, allowing two hits, and striking out three. Smyly is growing into his craftiness, finding a comfortable array of offspeed pitches to complement his respectable fastball. Jays starter Ricky Romero had serious control issues, walking 5 batters in 2 2/3 innings of work and allowing an opposite field home run to Austin Jackson (who is also scalding hot this spring). The real woes came in the 5th inning, when Marcus Stroman came in and allowed 7 runs while only getting a single out. Marcus Walden came in to mop it up but apparently did bring a good enough mop, allowing 5 runs himself. I guess they really dislike pitchers named Marcus. The Tigers scored in 6 out of their 8 offensive innings, collecting 17 hits (and walked 11 times) - and they still left 7 men on base. The best part of this game, hands down, is the Don Kelly grand salami in the fifth. I don't think I've ever lost my voice faster than that.  

This game confirmed my suspicions about the Jays - great offense, but bad pitching. Short of Mark Buehrle and RA Dickey, they are stretched thin. Through 19 Spring Training games, they have scored 80 runs (26th in MLB), and have allowed 105 (8th worst) with a team ERA of 5.73 (4th worst). In the AL East, that won't fly. Their only runs came off of a shaky Blaine Hardy 6th inning. 

This was such a fun trip. Not just because of the weather or three Tigers wins, but because of how exciting it is to see that baseball is back and I got a job interview tomorrow! Wish me luck! 

Thanks for reading, folks! The regular season is right around the corner! 

PS - We saw the Lego Movie on Monday when the game was rained out. Do yourself a favor and go see it - I was in stitches. 

2014 Predictions: NL East

The NL East had some trouble with competition this past year. The Braves ran away with the division, winning it by 10 games over the Nationals and another 12 games over the next closest competitor. It was also an injury-ridden division. Even the Braves were not immune from the bug; Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, Dan Uggla, and BJ Upton all had stints on the 15-day DL and Tim Hudson got his ankle shattered against the Mets in the middle of the summer. Despite their hard luck (it was not as hard as anyone else's), Fredi Gonzalez rode the successes of Chris Johnson, Freddie Freeman, and Andrelton Simmons into the playoffs. I expect them to do the exact same thing in 2014.

NL East

1. Atlanta 94-68
All of the pieces are in place. Now it is time to perform. Last year, a lot of people left their game in the warm weather in Spring Training a la BJ Upton only hitting .184 and Dan Uggla .179. Evan Gattis was a pleasant surprise, crushing 21 home runs in 105 games, and he will take over the full time catching position since Brian McCann has gone to the Yankees. Freddie Freeman, coming off of an offseason engagement to his girlfriend, will be in high spirits and repeat his .319 campaign and lead the league in hugs given.

The second base position is shaky as of right now: Uggla will be back, but youngsters Joey Terdoslavich and Taylor Pastornicky (spell check is screaming at me right now) will also make a case for the spot come Spring. We'll see what Gonzalez picks. The rotation is solid, with new pitchers Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd joining the squad. The newly signed Julio Teheran will continue to improve along side of young hurlers Mike Minor and Kris Medlen. Floyd and Beachy will not be 20 game winners, that's for sure, but they are good 4th and 5th pitchers. If they can get any type of lead, they'll be turning it over to the *new* best closer in the game, Craig Kimbrel. 

2. Washington 90-72
A lot of folks are picking the Nats to be a powerhouse and even go all the way this year. I have a few reservations about them, namely the new management. Matt Williams is a very capable manager, but it is his first year - Mike Matheny went 88-74 in his first year and then won the pennant with almost the exact same team. I see that happening with the Nats. The rotation is arguably the strongest in the NL between Strasburg, Gio, Zim, newly acquired Fister, and Detwiler.

Strasburg and Detwiler had some injury issues last season, so if they stay healthy then I think they will go far. On the offensive side of the ball, the Nats can rake. They were third in the NL in overall home runs (161), and if you take away Gio Gonzalez's one home run, they are first in the NL in non-pitcher home runs (160). Between Zimmerman, Werth, Harper, and sometimes Ian Desmond, these fellas score a lot of runs, but their team OBP was .313, only 8th in the league. If everyone's healthy, I expect to see them as a Wild Card and my guess at their record could be wildly wrong.

3. Philadelphia 75-87
The Phillies had a very disappointing year, ending ultimately with the termination of Charlie Manuel. The senior circuit will continue this year in the town of Brotherly Love: with signing Marlon Byrd (age 36) to two years, AJ  Burnett (age 37) to a one year deal, and Carlos Ruiz (age 35) to a three-year deal this offseason, they got good players but not any younger. Ryan Howard will be back from his season-ending injury, which is great, but again, he's no spring chicken and he strikes out a lot. 

The average age of the Phillies last year was 30.1 years old (28.5-year old 25-man roster). Again, high talent, but also high age. They'll be great for spurts, but ultimately, injuries and fatigue will catch up to them.

4. Miami 68-94
Last year's 100-loss team will improve slightly. They ended the season on a bright note, no-hitting the Tigers and winning on a walkoff wild pitch. They have a strong young core led by reigning ROY Jose Fernandez and defensive whiz Adeiny Hechavarria.

The Fish also had a tremendous offseason, signing Rafael Furcal, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Garrett Jones. Mike Redmond knows what he's doing down in Miami, and now that he has the players to back him up (at least more so than last year). Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick will get more reps and see their averages go up, not a lot, but enough. Right now, here's what I peg their starting lineup to look like: Furcal 2B, Yelich CF, Stanton RF, Jones 1B, Salty C, Ozuna LF, Polanco/Lucas 3B, Hech SS, Pitcher. Not bad at all - a lot of growth to be done. Jones will provide useful protection for Stanton, so his average will shoot back up to his 2012 All-Star campaign of .290. The rotation is decent, again, extremely young, featuring Fernandez, Turner, Eovaldi, and Alvarez. The average age of these four is exactly 22 years old. It won't be the Marlins year, but in four or five years, look out. 

5. New York 60-102
Unfortunately, the Mets took a step back this season and probably won't have much hope to compete this year. Missing Matt Harvey is a huge blow, and quasi-rookie Zach Wheeler will have to step up. He went 7-5 last year which is solid, but he'll have to throw a lot of innings this year, which I know Terry Collins won't like (because that's exactly what happened to Harvey). Now, anemic pitching staff aside, they are regaining Captain America (David Wright) and newly acquired Curtis Granderson.

I think Grandy is an awesome player, but his uppercut swing inside of the quite spacious Citi Field will result in a lot of long fly balls and warning track power. After playing in the little league Yankee Stadium for a few years, he's conditioned to getting under the ball more than he probably should. His defense will shine in the green pastures of Queens, but his average will suffer (again). Travis d'Arnaud, the young but injury-ridden catcher, will take the starting role now that John Buck has left New York. Ike Davis likely will lose his job to Josh Satin, therefore rounding out the infield with Daniel Murphy and Omar Quintanilla up the middle. I may be blowing their age out of proportion and underestimating Wright's ability to win games, but this year won't be pretty. 

Spring Break

With the recent bad news of Schilling's diagnosis and Kiner's passing, I think we are in order for a more optimistic post. This week a few friends and I finalized the plans for Spring Break this year: we're headed down to Lakeland to watch the Tigers play a handful of Spring Training games; 4 home, 1 away. We'll be seeing Tigers/Nationals three out of the five games, which is intriguing.

Before the 2013 season, MLB Network analysts (that word always looks like its spelled incorrectly, doesn't it? What a weird word) Tom Verducci and Larry Bowa picked the Nats to win it all, while Ken Rosenthal and Mitch Williams said the same for the Tigers (I can't let it go that Plesac picked the Blue Jays). Granted that was before the 2013 season began, but I feel that they both have put themselves in a position to face off in October of 2014. 

With the offseason trade of Doug Fister for Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol, and prospect Robbie Ray, which many say was a terrible trade for the Tigers, I can't wait to see Dougie in a Nats uniform. Red doesn't look as good as the old English D on that tall glass of water if you ask me, but I think he will succeed here. Most famous for his nasty 2-seam fastball, he does not allow a lot of home runs, only giving up 14 in 208 IP in 2013. Despite leading the league in hit batsmen last year, his HR/9 is phenomenal: the only time it was over 1 was his rookie year. But how much of that was due to his home park? His first three years were spent in Seattle at Safeco Field, one of the friendliest parks in the league to pitchers. Comerica Park in Detroit is the polar opposite. This past season, Comerica had a park factor of 1.139, 3rd in the league, meaning it was the 3rd friendliest park to hitters. Impressive work from Mr. Fister. Now that he's moving to the NL East, expect similar numbers - low home runs, high strike percentages, but also a lot of hits. Because Fister throws so many strikes, hitters are quick to jump on anything straight, hoping they won't see the sidewinding 2-seam. Last year, Fister's opponent BAbip was .333, allowing 229 hits, 3rd most in the league.

The addition of Matt Williams was a smart choice for the Nationals. Williams, who was around winning teams his whole player career including the champion Diamondbacks in 2001, knows what it takes to run a team, even though it is his first time. In an interview with ESPN, Williams shared that he would bring in old school baseball (slugging, defense), but also will bring in more sabermetrics to his position as well. Williams was an incredibly aggressive 3rd base coach for the Diamondbacks under Kirk Gibson, so I'm excited to see how that shows when we see them.  

The Nationals have a really young team, with an average age of 27.7. Their rotation is filthy; many call it the best in the league (I still think the Tigers has an edge). Flame throwing Stephen "China Doll" Strasburg, notoriously inconsistent Gio Gonzalez, silent NL wins leader Jordan Zimmermann, new Doug Fister, and a respectable back end in Ross Detwiler. Offensively, the Nats love to strikeout and hit the long ball. With a healthy Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman (who royally screwed my fantasy team last year by being hurt), their power numbers should go up just a little bit. In the....well, let's say 'rebuilding' NL East, the Nationals will be near the top. But not at the top. 

Fredi Gonzalez has the Braves running smoothly. Evan Gattis will be anchoring the field in a new role as starting catcher now that Brian McCann wanted some roughage and went to the Big Apple. Simmons, Freeman, and Heyward will continue to shine and be solid on both sides of the ball, and as we saw the greatest closer ever retire last year, the next best thing in Craig Kimbrel is right behind him. Even though they added Curtis Granderson, the Mets still will be below .500, especially with Matt Harvey missing year due to a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament. Captain America should be healthy the whole year, but the Mets still have more questions than answers, namely what is going on with Ike Davis and will EYJ get on base enough to steal?  The Phillies are getting Ryan Howard back as well as free agent pick up Marlon Byrd (two animals, one man), but are not getting any younger (except for their new manager Ryne Sandberg). Chooch, Chutley, and J-Roll are all entering their age 35 season but are expected to play 150+ games. Howard is 34, as is Cliff Lee, and Byrd is 36. Talent is high in some corners of the field, but there is a huge question mark at third base. The Marlins future is bright, especially with Rookie of the Year phenom Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton. They had an awesome offseason, signing veteran leader and champion Rafael Furcal, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, slugger Garrett Jones, and an incredibly underrated outfielder Reed Johnson. All come from successful teams in 2013 and can offer great examples of leadership. Like the Nationals, the Marlins are a wicked young team, and studs like Adeiny Hechavarria, Christian Yelich (Baseball America's #15 prospect), and Marcell Ozuna (#75) can learn a lot from their new veterans. 

Sorry for the lengthy post, but sunshine and baseball gets me excited. I won't get into predictions just yet, but for now, expect the Braves to win the East. 

As always, thanks for reading. I'll leave you with this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0H9VthNLh8. Enjoy.

Happy birthday to Vlad Guerrero and Moon Mullen!