The Case for Carlos Beltran

Yankees' DH/outfielder Carlos Beltran has been one of the bigger names in the game of baseball for the past 15 years or so since he won the AL Rookie of the Year award for the 1999 season (side note, ROYs are announced tonight at 6 PM). He signed a 3-year deal with the Yankees after last offseason, putting him under contract until the end of the 2016 season when he will be 39 years old. If he were to sign anything after that, it would most likely be strictly as a designated hitter.

I said he was one of the bigger names, but not the biggest. When you think of MLB stars, the first name to come to mind is not Carlos Beltran, it's probably Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, or Clayton Kershaw. But that's how Beltran has made his career: good baseball under the radar, and better baseball when it matters, boasting a .333 career postseason average in 51 games. 

With the end of Beltran's career in sight, or at least slowing down with injuries this year for the Yankees, the question comes to mind: will Carlos Beltran be a Hall of Famer?

The Case Against Beltran
There are a few big strikes against Beltran that will be hard for voters to see past. The biggest isn't one thing or another, it's just him: he doesn't really stand out. When you look at his career stats, what pops out to you? Other than the ROY in 1999, nothing really. And that's the biggest problem. He's been extremely consistent, oscillating back and forth between the lesser of the best and the best of the lesser, which could explain why he's bounced around to so many teams in his career (KC, NYM, HOU, SF, NYY, STL), but he's never filtered to the top, the best of the best. While this can be combated with his postseason performances, there are a couple other issues I want to address before we move to the case for him.

• No rings. I know voters may not put a lot of stock into winning titles, but it's one of the first things I look at in a player; it shows dedication to the franchise, the ability to make players around them better, it shows putting the team's will to win over your own to succeed. Not to say Beltran is self-centered or has a big ego, but he's never been the fearless leader that I think was expected of him. In 1999, Beltran's official rookie season, the Royals finished in 4th place in the Central at 64-97, and even worse, from 1999-2004, his last year as a Royal, they finished 409-562. He's won a handful of pennants, but he didn't make the team good, he was just on a good team.
• No league leading stats. There have been a lot of Hall of Famers to never win a World Series (just ask any Cub who played the last 100 years or any Red Sox fan from 1918-2004), but that doesn't mean they didn't have great players. Carlos Beltran has led the league in one thing during his entire career: games played in 2002, which he shared with 4 other people. 

  

  Shoutout to Ms. Frizzle.

• Consider some of the "marquee stats" that basically solidify Hall of Famers. 3,000 hits - no (possible, but not probable; 2,322 currently), 400 home runs - no (again, close, 373), .300 average - no (not happening, .281), 500 doubles - no (close, 469). 
• No personal awards other than ROY (with a class of Freddy Garcia and Jeff Zimmerman).
• He's never stayed on a good team very long. He goes where the money is.

The Case for Beltran

While his biggest strike against him was that he mostly played in the shadows of other big names, the brightest feather in his cap is his consistency. The fact that he bounced from team to team shows that he always performed no matter where he went. He's appeared in 4 postseasons for 3 different teams 9 years apart (2004, 2006, 2012, 2013) and as I mentioned earlier, hit at an elite level (.333) with 16 home runs and 40 RBIs in 51 games. 

Projecting his Hall of Fame class ballot class will be tricky. If he retires after the 2016 season, he'll be on the 2021 ballot and eligible for the 2022 class, and it's hard to say who else will retire in 2016. Names that come to mind are Torii Hunter, David Ortiz, Tim Hudson, Ichiro, just to name a few. Then there will be those still on the ballot from the previous packed years, including Roger Clemens, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, and everyone's favorite, Barry Bonds. It will be a crowded ballot again (projected) but I think of these names, Beltran does have the numbers to filter to the top. 

Though he does not have any rings, he was always in the conversation (although he was never at the beginning of the paragraphs). And since I mentioned the "marquee" stats, let's compare him to other Hall of Famers:

• Hits: If he retired today, his 2,322 hits would be 82nd in the Hall behind Barry Larkin, but almost a whole season under the HOF average of 2,397. With two more healthy years in a Yankee uniform, Beltran could eclipse 2,600. 
• Home runs: 373 would put him 32nd among Hall of Famers and while many players were inducted for something other than power, if Beltran reaches 400 in his next two years, it will put him in an elite club and the top 25 of Hall of Famers. 
• Batting average: Statistically, Beltran's .281 average is probably the biggest dirt we have on him. It would rank 122nd of the Hall of Famers, just before Rickey Henderson.  Like I said though, Beltran wouldn't get in based on average, it would be the next stat.
• Doubles and slugging percentage: Beltran's 469 doubles is a formidable stat. Currently he ranks 45th in doubles in the Hall of Fame class and is already two seasons above the HOF average of 410. He will easily get to 500 in the next two seasons if he stays healthy, putting him in the top 35 and deeper into the voting mind. Furthermore, his slugging percentage is no Babe Ruth, but an impressive .491 would be 43rd in the Hall and 29 points above the average. Wow.

The last trait he has going for him is not so much he did on the field as he did off. Beltran, a Puerto Rican, has played the 6th most games in the Majors out of anyone from Puerto Rico. He has the 5th most All-Star games (8) out of anyone from Puerto Rico, and he's in excellent company: Roberto Clemente (HOF), Pudge Rodriguez (soon to be HOF), Roberto Alomar (HOF), and Orlando Cepeda (HOF). He also won the 2013 Roberto Clemente Award, which is awarded to the player "combining good play and strong work in the community" (BBR). 

While Puerto Rico has given the Majors plenty of talent, only a handful of that talent has both produced at an elite level and given back to their community. While it may seem that Beltran just goes to the team with the biggest paycheck, he takes that paycheck and returns it to his home in Puerto Rico investing in his Carlos Beltran Foundation, a place where children can chase their dreams through sports and education. Mark Newman of MLB.com has more here.

To do something like this while he is still playing shows that he's not just in it for the positive press or the tax breaks. When he retires, I'm sure he could coach or announce or do just about anything else regarding professional baseball but I think he'll go right back to Puerto Rico and help young boys and girls be successful like he was. 

He isn't the best hitter we've ever seen. He isn't the best fielder we've ever seen even though he has 3 Gold Gloves. He isn't the greatest leader we've ever seen. He isn't the most decorated player. But he's one of the best men to play the game and to do it at that high of a level for 17 years (already, and two more to come) deserves my Hall of Fame vote. 

Thanks for reading. 

Yadi Molina

Tonight was a big night for baseball in terms of personal awards. The major award finalists were announced, including both AL and NL Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and MVPs, as well as all of the Gold Glove award winners. My Tigers were shutout from wins for another year, but the Orioles (3 winners), Royals (3), and Rockies (2) all had excellent showings.

Here's what really grasped me though. Yadier Molina, Cardinals catcher and the youngest of the Molina Catching Trio (Bengie, left, Jose, center, Yadier, right; all photos are courtesy of Baseball Reference)

won his 7th consecutive NL Gold Glove for catching tonight. Both Bengie and Jose won a World Series ring with the Angels in 2002, and with Yadi's win with the 2006 Cardinals, they became the first trio of brothers to ever win World Series rings. How fun would that be at Thanksgiving? 

But back to Yadi. I have a bold claim to make about him. This is bolder than bold Chex Mix;

it's bolder than when I remove my contacts shortly after eating hot wings; ladies and gentlemen this claim is bolder than Colorado (sweet mercy I hope someone gets that joke):

Yadier Molina is the best catcher of our generation.

(See I even put it in boldface type just in case you didn't hear me that it was bold.)

Yes, he's even better than Ivan Rodriguez. Now, Yadi is only 31 and has many more years of catching ahead of him, especially if he finds the fountain of youth like Pudge, who caught up to age 39 for the Nationals. Through age 31, Pudge had 10 Gold Gloves and a higher batting average than Yadi, but let's look a little deeper.

First, Yadi has a higher catching fielding percentage than Pudge. Through 11 seasons, he has a .994 fielding percentage and only 53 errors. Pudge's career fielding percentage is .991, still excellent, with 142 errors. Even if Yadi were to catch for 10 more years, essentially doubling his service time, his projection would jump just barely over 100 career errors, considerably fewer than Pudge. Pudge's cannon was great to have because he kept runners close and nabbed anything that moved, but that came to backfire at times with the ball trickling away from fielders or simply airmailing them. And even with Pudge's absurd 88 career pickoffs, let me tell you a secret: Yadi has 52 career pickoffs, and is on pace to pass him. Pudge got there faster, but Yadi has proven to be more consistent. 

Not just with pickoffs, but caught stealing percentage, too. Pudge led the league multiple times, but who was stealing bases? In 2001, Pudge caught 60% of base runners, a career high, but the AL steals leaders that year were Ichiro (487 career), Roger Cedeno (213), Alfonso Soriano (I know, right? 289), Mark McLemore (272), and Chuck Knoblauch (407). Of the top 5, Pudge only threw them out 3 times out of 9 chances throughout the 2001 season.

It was not a strong stealing class compared to Yadi's career high of 64% in 2005, when the NL steals leaders were Jose Reyes (455 career steals), Juan Pierre (614), Jimmy Rollins (453), Ryan Freel (only 143), and Willy Taveras (only 195 career, but 68 in 2008). Of the top 5 NL base stealers, Yadi threw them out 57.1% of the time, or 4 caught stealing out of 7 attempts.

This is the first thing I uploaded to the blog, even before any text. It's probably looped 1500 times now and gets better every time.

So Yadi's career high 64% is better than Pudge's career high 60%, it was against a higher quality selection of thieves, and he threw them out more than Pudge threw out the top 5. Pretty convincing if you ask me.

Second, look at leadership. Yadi doesn't only have 2 World Series rings, but he's also caught much better pitchers and made them better pitchers. The following stats and individual successes all come under Molina as the primary Cardinals starting catcher:

• Adam Wainwright: 2 CYA runner-ups, 3 ASGs, career highs in wins, ERA, CG, shutouts, WHIP
• Chris Carpenter: CYA, 3 ASGs, career highs in W, CG, lows in ERA, WHIP
• Edwin Jackson: 3rd lowest ERA, highest winning percentage 
• Jason Marquis: career ERA in 2004
• Kyle Lohse: Only top 10 CYA voting, career highs in wins, winning percentage, his only sub 3 ERA, and lowest career WHIP

While Pudge didn't have great pitchers to begin with, he didn't make them much better, either.

• Kenny Rogers - career high in wins was not with Pudge, lowest starting ERA was with Oakland
• Aaron Sele - lowest ERA was with Boston
• Kevin Brown - for the first player ever to sign a $100 million contract, he only had a career high in wins under Pudge; his careers in WHIP and ERA were with the Marlins
• Rick Helling - only had career high wins

You may argue that Yadi was given better pitchers talent wise. Then I would counter with Kyle Lohse's 2012 performance, something he has never duplicated in his career, or Jason Marquis who was always around, but never really great, while Pudge had some solid pitchers that blossomed after they had a different catcher. Maybe he had a different training regimen where they improved later. 

Pudge is the better offensive catcher, there is no doubt about that. However, Yadi's offense has improved vastly the last 5 years and if it weren't for a nasty thumb ligament injury that limited his swinging ability in 2014, he probably could have hit above .300 for the fourth straight year. After age 31, Pudge slowly began to trend downward offensively, though he had some peaks in the remaining 8 years. If Molina continues on his upward trend (.262 in 2010 to .319 in 2013), he could push his career average close to .290 (sitting at .284 right now). I think because of the offensive numbers and just how many times he led the league in caught stealing percentage, he'll be remembered as a better catcher, but he also played in the steroid era when steals were an ancient stat.

Pudge's thoughts towards Yadi.

Molina, especially playing in the NL and for manager La Russa, is of the small ball school, where catchers have to be quick and catlike rather than just have a great arm to not only throw runners out but to call pitches, know batters and runner tendencies, and then turn around and hit. 

With 6 All-Star games, 7 straight Gold Gloves (2 Platinum), and 2 rings, Molina is authoring an impressive Hall of Fame resume. However, knowing that chicks and writers dig the longball, Yadi's .284 career average and only 1297 hits through 11 years is not quite legendary quality. But we never know what the future holds; Yadi could blossom into a .300 hitter and rewrite the offensive history books for catchers. But for now, I hope you agree with me through my research that Yadi Molina is the best catcher of the three Molinas and of this generation. 

Thanks for reading. 

Post WWII

We always joke around in my household that my mother has a PhD in World War II history with a focus in the Holocaust because she is always (I'm not kidding when I say always) reading some sort of World War II book. That may seem a very random fact for the most part but I guess it runs in the family, because I think one of the most interesting times in baseball would be post World War II. There are 36 players who served in World War II and went on to be Hall of Famers - I have always been absolutely fascinated by that - Ted Williams dropped his game after the 1942 season when he hit .356 and led the MLB in virtually every offensive category (runs, home runs, RBIs, walks, average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, total bases, and was the runner up in the MVP race (to the Yankees' Joe Gordon). He then valiantly served in the Air Force for three years and then came back to have an even better season. In 1946 upon his return, though his average was lower and had fewer hits, he had one more home run, one more run, 3 more triples, 13 more walks, and 5 more stolen bases on his way to his first of 2 career MVPs.

This photo is Ted Williams' Baseball Reference page - I just wanted to share the love for Ted Williams and how amazing it is for someone to play the game at an elite level, take three years off, AND PLAY AT AN EVEN ELITER LEVEL (eliter is now a word).

Now that I have had my daily dose of holy-cow-these-guys-are-good, I pose all of you a question: it's 1946. The Second World War is over and you are the GM of an expansion team. You have one player to pick to start your team around - who would you pick? 

It's an age old question, that of who you would build your team around. We talk about it all the time at work for the current era of players. But for World War II, the Golden Age that has produced more Hall of Famers than any other time in baseball, who would you pick? 

Knowing what we know now, it would be very difficult to pick between Williams and Musial - both won the MVP in their respective years, but you are the GM before 1946. You're taking a new franchise to Indianapolis and need to start a team. 

Give me Bob Feller. 

Don't get me wrong, it's hard to pass up the guy who led the league in hits (Musial) and it's almost harder to pass up the guy who led the league in on-base percentage (Williams), but it's been proven that defense wins championships. Offense wins games but defense wins championships. Especially when you have Bob Feller at the helm. 

First, he eats up a ton of innings. Last year, the league leader in innings pitched was Adam Wainwright with 241 innings. In fact, the last pitcher to throw 300 innings was Steve Carlton in 1980, so it goes to show how the value of a workhorse as diminished. Even if our proverbial new bullpen isn't the greatest, the fact that Feller throws, throws, and oh yeah, throws some more will really help take some stress off. In 1946, he threw 371.1 innings. Wow. The two seasons before that (1940, 1941 - he served for three years) he threw 320 and 343 innings, respectively. 

With throwing that many innings, some bad things can indeed happen. Feller led the league in hits allowed 3 times and walks 4 seasons. BUT Feller also led the league in strikeouts 7 seasons in a row (minus 1945 when he only pitched in 9 games). He must have an arm of German engineering. Combine both his gross numbers of walks and hits with his even grosser number of innings pitched and that makes for an excellent WHIP (career 1.31, 1.15 in 1946). 

Truth be told, Feller didn't have a great track record against Ted Williams (.378 avg, 9 home runs, only 8 K's) or other Hall of Famers but that doesn't mean he didn't back down. In his pitching career, Feller was surprisingly on his best game when he got the least run support. This will be perfect considering we are a new franchise and probably won't score many runs. In 454 qualifying starts, Feller had the best ERA and WHIP when his team scored between 0-2 runs. Granted he had a 35-89 record but it's hard to win 35 games when your team scores 0-2 runs. When the team scores 6 or more runs, Feller's ERA shoots up to 3.61 - not a huge jump but enough of one that makes you think that he takes his foot off the gas pedal just a bit. It's interesting that Feller threw his best stuff with his back against the wall. A lot like King Felix now when he won his Cy Young in 2010 with a 13-12 record (his ERA was 2.76 for when the Mariners scored 0-2 runs and 3.53 when they scored 6+).

Feller never won a Cy Young Award. Because the award didn't exist yet. 

Bob Feller and I thank you for reading. 

The Career of Jim Thome

Earlier this week, slugger Jim Thome called it quits officially after a 21 year career and waiting patiently on the free agent list for a few years for possibly another place to play. Thome, now at the age of 43, jumped around a lot in his career with a lot of different teams. He will officially retire as a Cleveland Indian as a sense of tribute; he played for the Tribe from his rookie year in 1991 to 2002 and then again briefly in 2011 at the age of 40. He also spent time in Minnesota, Philadelphia, Chicago (White Sox), and Baltimore. 

Thome hit the cover off the ball. That's what he'll be remembered for, plain and simple. His 612 career home runs rank 7th all time and he is one of 8 people to ever hit 600 professional home runs. Think about that: there have been almost 20,000 baseball players (18,334 according to BBR this morning) to ever suit up and play, from Julio Franco who played from 1982 to 2007 to Moonlight Graham who played one game in 1905 and didn't even register an at-bat (yes, the same Moonlight Graham as in Field of Dreams), and only 8 of them have ever hit 600 home runs. That's a small number.

But is it enough for the Hall of Fame?

The case for Jim Thome: 

• 612 home runs, 7th all-time, currently 4th out of Hall of Famers (5th once Griffey is inducted)
• .402 on-base percentage, would be 26th out of Hall of Famers, tied with Joe Kelley, and 26 points higher than the HOF average of .376
• .554 slugging percentage, would be 14th out of Hall of Famers, just behind Hank Aaron's .555, almost 100 points higher than the HOF average of .462
• .956 OPS, would be 12th out of Hall of Famers, just behind Johnny Mize's .959, 118 points higher than the Hall of Fame average
• 1,699 RBIs is 24th all time
• 1,747 walks is 7th all time
• His 162 game average of .276, 39 home runs, and 108 RBIs is on par with Frank Thomas (except for the average) and a bevy of other Hall of Famers
• 5 All-Star selections
• One of the nicest people to ever play the game

The case against Jim Thome:

• He struck out almost exactly once a game: 2,543 games played, 2,548 strikeouts (led the league 3 times)
• 2,328 hits would be between Barry Larkin and Eddie Mathews for 82nd in the Hall of Fame (and Thome didn't have as good of defense as they did)
• .276 average would be on par with Cal Ripken, Roy Campanella, and Harry Wright for 130th in the HOF, 27 points behind the HOF average
• Only 5 All-Star selections (yes it's on both lists, I can't decide where to put it)
• No MVPs, 1 Silver Slugger, no World Series rings 
• The upcoming crowded ballots.

Let Thome in! I think he's got the numbers. Sure he struck out a lot, but he was a home run hitter, that's what they do! He jumped all around the league and still slugged the cover off the ball. He hit 42 home runs at the age of 35 for the White Sox. I almost break my ankles getting out of bed every morning at 22, I can't imagine slapping 42 home runs 13 years from now.

Back to the crowded ballot: 

Thome will be eligible for the 2018 ballot, along with other stars like Chipper Jones, Johan Santana, Scott Rolen, and Andruw Jones - and if for some reason these guys don't get in their first time: Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey, Ivan Rodriguez, Vlad Guerrero, Pedro Martinez, then he'll have to fight them off too. Between the witch hunt for steroid users/sluggers in the era, a crowded ballot, and a shorter eligibility list (only 10 years on the ballot), it may be tough.

But 612 home runs! Plus the biggest home run at Progressive Field you'll ever see!

Let Thome in! 

How can you not let this pretty swing in?

Thanks for reading. 

Will We Ever See a Unanimous Hall of Famer?

With the 2014 Induction come and gone, I started to look at the three players inducted and the percentage of the vote they received. Maddux, who won 4 straight Cy Young awards from '92-'95, received 555/571 (97.2%). Fellow Brave Tom Glavine received 525 votes, good enough for 91.9% of the voters, and surprisingly enough, the Big Hurt Frank Thomas only got 83.7% of the votes in his first time on the ballot. 

Between last summer and my crazy baseball brain now, I've always wondered: will we ever see a unanimous selection for the Hall of Fame? Some writers have already disclosed to the media that they will not vote for anyone who played in the steroid era. Though I disagree with that, I do understand the thought process and the necessity for purifying the era (however, remember my post from about a month ago that preached that we don't live in the steroid era, we live in the Hall of Fame era). Then there are other writers who will argue that certain players don't deserve to be first-ballot Hall of Famers. At the Hall of Fame, there is no denotation whether or not someone was a first-ballot inductee or a last ballot inductee, so why does it matter? Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer, regardless of the year they were inducted. Inducted means inducted, and anyone who visits the Hall of Fame knows that some players are just better than others, that's a fact. 

Of course now that I wrote that, I guess I'm contradicting myself - why does it matter if someone is elected unanimously or not? 

I'll tell you why: because some players are that good. 

Tom Seaver of the 1992 class is the reigning champion for percentage of votes received with 98.8% (Nolan Ryan also got 98.8% but with rounding and conversion rates and sigfigs, Seaver wins out). The thing is, with his 3 Cy Young awards, Rookie of the Year, and 311 wins, Greg Maddux is a better pitcher with 4 Cy Youngs and 355 wins (a lot of the more specific stats like ERA and WHIP belong to Seaver), at least on paper he is. But Maddux only received 97.2% of the vote (only, ha) - is that circumstantial? Personally, I believe so. If you put Maddux in the Seaver era with the same stats, Maddux might have gotten 98.8%. So it will be very hard for anyone in the near future to be elected unanimously given the steroid era, but this is the man that has the best shot:

Randy Johnson
Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux (sorry to keep referring to Maddux, I just think he's a good basis for example and comparison for the upcoming years of Hall of Famers) are incredibly similar pitchers, except for Johnson's gory strikeout numbers. Johnson's ERA is .13 worse than Maddux's (though Johnson actually allowed fewer earned runs in his career) and Johnson's WHIP is .03 worse than his. In that regard, they are similar pitchers. Not a lot of people ever made solid contact and they did not walk a lot of batters. Here's where Maddux has an edge: he has 52 more wins and almost 1,000 more innings pitched. Decent edge. Here's where Johnson blows Maddux away: one more Cy Young award (Johnson also has 4 consecutive), 2nd all-time in strikeouts and 1st all-time in strikeouts per 9 innings. He has the same hardware as Maddux (plus a World Series co-MVP) and the power numbers of Nolan Ryan, who never won a Cy Young. Judging by his low WHIP and high K/9, Johnson combined the finesse of Maddux and the power of Nolan Ryan, all from the low left arm slot which made it nearly impossible to hit (just ask John Kruk). He's got the hardware, he's got the stats, he's got a ring (Maddux did win 18 Gold Gloves - that's hard to beat). If I were a writer, I can't find a good enough reason to justify not voting for him. Look at these batting averages against him:

• Rickey Henderson: .115, 30 K's in 61 AB
• Adrian Beltre: .219, 19 K's in 64 AB
• Frank Thomas: .233, 18 K's in 43 AB
• Roberto Alomar: .220, 13 K's in 41 AB
• Jim Thome, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn: .111 average 
• Andre Dawson: .133

These are Hall of Famers (or soon to be Hall of Famers). The dude didn't mess around. Although lucky for him, he never had to face Don Kelly. 

To be honest, I don't think we'll see anyone inducted unanimously in my lifetime. There's always a couple people who will prevent that from happening. But if I were to guess, Johnson would be it. Here's a picture of the lanky 6'10" Big Unit at USC just because Google is awesome.

Thanks for reading. 

The Hall of Fame Era

A couple weeks ago, we got my grandmother a cell phone. As she was programming it, she blurted a phrase that I think is incredibly true, not just for life in general, but especially for baseball: "What a time to be alive."

When I was at the HOF last summer, I learned that if players aren't voted in, they can make it in the Hall on the Era Based Committee. Each different year is dedicated to a different era in which players can get another chance. The three main eras (so far) are pre-integration (beginning to 1947), the Golden Era (1947-1973), and then the now (1973-present). Given that the current era is expanding to more than 40 years, I think its time for a new era.

A lot of writers and baseball purists would label today as the Steroid Era. I mean, it makes perfect sense given the beefy guys like Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire who have owned up to it, and then there are guys like Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds who have fought it tooth and nail to clear their name but no matter what they do, people will blacklist them. In the early 2000s, it seemed that nearly every slugger was dirty (with the exception of Griffey) and unfortunately, nowadays, the big hitters are accused of juicing. Chris Davis's breakout 2013 was questioned, Jose Bautista's breakout 2010 was questioned, heck even Josh Hamilton has been accused sometimes. It all makes sense though, because today's All Stars are yesterday's criminals. Ryan Braun and Nelson Cruz, both of whom are excelling at the plate this year, were suspended last year. Jhonny Peralta, who was suspended last year, signed a $50 million contract; juicers are still alive and well in the game today. 

It may be cheesy, but there has to be bad in the world so the good can shine through. Rather than name this the Steroid Era, however, I think we should call this the Hall of Fame Era. We are living in one of the greatest generations that baseball has ever seen. Within the next few years, we'll be seeing massive induction classes to the Hall of Fame. 

This upcoming induction in July will have six members; three managers (Cox, Torre, La Russa) and three players (Thomas, Glavine, Maddux), the biggest BBWAA class since 1999. In the last 50 years, the BBWAA has elected three players only 5 times - but in the next 5 years, it should happen every year. Just look at these next few years (who I'm listing is who I'm predicting will be inducted):
2015: Randy Johsnon, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Craig Biggio (missed by 2 votes last year)

2016: Ken Griffey, Jr., Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner

2017: Ivan Rodriguez, Vlad Guerrero, Manny Ramirez (if the writers can see past his antics)

2018: Chris Carpenter, Omar Vizquel, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Jim Thome

The players I have listed I think are absolute locks. We aren't even getting into the argument zones, because there are at least ten other players who could make it if the stars align. Guys like Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, and Mike Piazza are all eligible candidates. And then don't even get me started on the players currently. Well, too bad, you got me started.

Here's my list of current players that will be Hall of Fame locks off the top of my head: Don Kelly, Derek Jeter, Big Papi, Miguel Cabrera, Mariano Rivera, Yadier Molina, Adrian Beltre, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Dustin Pedroia, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew McCutchen

Here's my list of players that have a shot: Joe Mauer,  Carlos Gonzalez, David Wright, CC Sabathia, Tim Hudson, Adam Wainwright, David Price, Billy Butler, Joe Nathan, Carlos Beltran

And then there's the young guys who are really good right now but are too young to make a guess: Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, Mike Trout, Jose Fernandez, Chris Sale, Eric Hosmer, Paul Goldschmidt, Buster Posey

Many of you might not believe me, but I didn't even look at stats for these. I just kind of whipped names off the top of my head (okay I looked at rosters to jog my memory), but that just goes to show how great of an era we are in for baseball. Within the next 10-15 years, we'll be seeing most of these guys go in and in the next 20-25 years, even more. The writers have a full ballot ahead of them and the next few induction ceremonies will be packed. 

I'm sure there are players that I missed. I'm also sure there are players on here that don't deserve it. But that's the beauty of baseball and the Hall of Fame, we don't know what will happen. I just think that it's a shame that because a few guys (well, more than a few) wanted to cheat, the entire generation has to be punished for it. That's not right. When I take my grandkids to Cooperstown and point out Jeter, Cabrera, Rivera, Maddux, Johnson, Griffey, etc, they will be hailed as some of the greatest who ever lived. All in this one time period. We get to live through it all. I don't want it to be labeled the Steroid Era - those guys will be remembered for their steroids on their own. Don't label the clean ones that way, too.

My grandma was right. It is a heck of a time to be alive for baseball fans. We're living in a time that has both the biggest hitters and the greatest pitchers. Compare this to the past decades when for the most part it was either one or the other. In the 60's and 70's it was a pitching dominated game. In the 30's and 40's it was a slugger's game. Obviously there are exceptions to every rule, but how many times will we be able to say that we saw both the offensive and defensive triple crown in back to back years? Kershaw and Verlander did it both in 2011 then Cabrera did it on the other side of the ball in 2012. It blows my mind.

What a time to be alive.

Thanks for reading. 

Roy Halladay, Pt. 2

With yesterday's post about Roy Halladay completed, I'll take a step back from that one awesome game in the 1998 season to examine his entire career and determine whether or not he will be in the Hall of Fame. Let's take a dive into it, shall we?

For the better part of his career, Halladay was known as a workhorse. In fact, one of the most impressive stats in his favor are complete games and shutouts. In an era of specific pitching skills and closely monitored pitch counts, shutouts are becoming a thing of the past. With the rise of the closer and set-up roles, pitchers are only asked to go six or seven innings. Going 9 innings is a rare feat and something to be celebrated, as opposed to a hundred years ago when if a pitcher did not go 9 innings, the start must have been really, really bad. Throughout his 16 year career, Halladay averaged 33 starts a year. If you do the math, out of 162 games, that's roughly a start every fifth day, so his durability was something of a hidden gem in addition to wicked control and a relatively new pitch (cutter) to the game. What's more impressive, though, is how many innings he would throw in a season and still be performing at a high level year in and year out. He was in the top 10 in innings pitched in 8 separate seasons, with a career high of 266. Similarly, he was in the top 10 in batters faced in 8 separate seasons. 

That's pretty good. This is even better: Halladay was in the top 10 10 times in complete games, 6 of those seasons he was first or second. 5 of those came at age 30 or later! Okay durability is one thing, but to go that late and be dominant is another. He had 4 seasons in the top 10 ranks of shutouts, including back to back #1s at age 32 and 33. Going the distance is awesome. Holding the opponent scoreless is also impressive. Combining the two made him a fearsome competitor. The only way to get to him was small ball and pray a ball finds a hole, because runners rarely stole and he rarely gave up home runs. 

Excluding his last two seasons, which were uncharacteristically sloppy, his career ERA was 3.23. He racked up 203 wins and only 105 losses. He rarely walked any batters (his strikeout to walk ratio led the league 5 times, with a career high of 7.30). 

Stats are great, but let's look at the big picture. He won two Cy Youngs, one in each league (one of only 5 pitchers ever to do so - Gaylord Perry, Pedro, Johnson, Clemens). He also finished in the top five in voting five other times (runner up twice). He was selected to 8 All-Star teams (6 AL, 2 NL). Another stat that I find particularly interesting is that he was the Opening Day starter for 10 straight seasons, 2003-2012. Had it not been for an injury plagued offseason between '12 and '13, he may have added one more.

He also threw two no-hitters (both in 2010, one of which was in the playoffs), just adding to the fact that he was a solid pitcher late in his career.

Now, that said, he never won a ring. Some of that could be blamed on playing in the best division in the game for the first 12 years of his career. The AL East, featuring the Yankees and Red Sox, and more recently, the Rays and O's, almost always sent two teams to the playoffs in the archaic 4-team format. During Halladay's tenure in Toronto, there were only three years in which the AL East did not send two teams to the postseason (some combination of Yankees, Red Sox, Rays). He did not have the supporting cast around him to make it happen - that's not a slight at the early millennial Jays, that's just a fact. When he switched to the NL, however, the Phillies made it to the NLCS in 2010, losing to Giants, and lost to the Cardinals in the NLDS in 2011. He does not have extensive postseason experience (3-2, 2.37 ERA with a no-no), but he was equipped with a better team around him to go the distance. 

He also gave up his fair share of hits throughout his career. While his strikeout to walk ratio and home runs per nine were awesome, his hits per nine was not. The average for his career was 8.7 and sometimes inflated as high as 14.2 for a season. He allowed over 200 hits every single time he pitched over 200 innings; his worst season (in terms of hits) suffered 253 hits. That was also his first Cy Young winning season. I'm not quite sure what to think.

I'd give him the nod if I had a vote. Pitching in the AL East, its impressive that he only had one losing season. Then switching to the NL East with the powerful Braves and rising Nats, again he only had one losing season (2013 in which his shoulder just said 'no more, Roy'). I think seeing pitchers this durable is so rare anymore, and for that reason I think he deserves to be remembered forever. 

So congrats, Harry Leroy Halladay, you have the approval of a 21-year old independent baseball blogger (woo!).

Thanks for reading, folks. Enjoy the heat wave.