Jonathan Papelbon

Hello everyone, sorry I've been away and haven't posted in a while. The Whitecaps are hosting the Midwest League All-Star Game next week so we've been putting in some long days at the old yard. While I was out, the Phillies' closer Jonathan Papelbon recorded his 300th career save, a truly impressive feat (especially only at the age of 33) that puts him at 24th all time, tied with Jason Isringhausen and Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter. Papelbon, a southern boy who played his college ball at Mississippi State, has served for both the Red Sox and Phillies, winning the 2007 World Series with the Sox over the Rockies in what I call the most boring World Series of the last twenty years (until 2012 but we don't talk about that since the Tigers were in it and got swept). 

Papelbon's memorable reaction after the final out in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series. It was Boston's 2nd title in 4 years.

The 300-save plateau is an elite group of closers. It seems as if that is the magic number for closers in order to be inducted into the Hall of Fame - no closer with fewer than 300 has been inducted (with the exception of Smoltz when his time comes, but he was a hybrid starter/closer). That said, 7 of those 26 with 300 saves are ineligible for the Hall of Fame (5-year retirement period has not passed yet), and of the remaining 19, only 4 have been inducted. So there have been 19 players in history to record 300 saves but only 4 have ever been inducted. Take away the 4 Hall of Famers (Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter), and out of those 15 players, only 4 have ever received more than 1% of the vote. Only 1, Lee Smith, has consistently received more than 5% to remain on the ballot (Hall of Fame voting procedure states that if a player does not receive 5% of the vote, he will not be on the next year's ballot)  - he's been on 11 years and has gotten 50.6% at the most. It's not looking good for him.

It's not looking good for many closers. But here's my case for Papelbon.

• He's still got a few good years ahead of him. Papelbon is only 33 years old and will not turn 34 until November. With 14 saves for the offensively anemic Phillies already, he is on pace for around 40 saves. For the sake of argument, if he notches 40 saves this year, he'll be tied for 14th with 326 saves (I didn't account for K-Rod or Joe Nathan moving up the ranks - too many moving figures for me to count right now). If Bruce Sutter got in with 300 exactly (and a losing record), Papelbon deserves it. Closers can usually last up to their 40th birthday, so he could keep climbing the ladder if his body permits.
• Okay, purely number of saves may not do it for you? How about accolades? He has a World Series ring, which only a handful of the top 26 have (Rivera has like 100). A ring isn't all he got though, he was named the 2007 World Series MVP, recording saves in Games 2, 3, and 4. He was also selected 5 All-Star teams, which may not seem like a lot but he was the rival closer to Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time. Typically, All-Star rosters only will hold 3 or 4 closers (they've been holding a lot more recently), so to be selected (not by fans, either) to 4 straight rosters alongside Mo says a lot about his talent. He was also the runner up in the Rookie of the Year voting to Justin Verlander in 2006.
• Fine, if the accolades aren't doing it for you either, I'll turn to his stat sheet. Papelbon has been one of the most consistent closers of the past 15 years, and frankly I was shocked at how really consistent he has been after looking at his BBR page. He has played between 59-70 games every year, his ERA has been under 3.00 every year except 2010, and has been under 4 every year of his career. After his rookie year, his WHIP has never been higher than 1.2. Even counting his rookie year, he's never been above 1.4 (4 years under 1.00). He's never allowed more than 8 home runs in a year and has yet to allow one this year. Other than 2010, he's never thrown more than 2 wild pitches in a season. Even after a change of scenery and change of leagues, he was not phased and still recorded 38 saves in his first year in a Phillies uniform in 2011.
• Bottom line, career stats: 35-27, 2.36 ERA, 1.035 WHIP, 300 saves. 

He stays out of trouble, he's generally well-liked around the league, and to be honest, except for this "I'm trying really hard to be intimidating" face, 

I really don't have much bad to say about him. 

Now, Pap has blown 41 saves in his career, but comparing to other closers, that isn't all that bad. Rivera blew 72 saves in 19 years, so Papelbon is a little off the pace, but not bad. Dennis Eckersley blew over 70 saves as well, and I think when all is said and done, Pap will be right around 80 blown saves, give or take a few. If he keeps pitching like this year, maybe not (he's doing really well this year). 

He also has never been a finalist for the Cy Young Award or the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award (now to be named the Mariano Rivera Award) for best reliever. Those are the big ones for pitchers and ideally, winning or even placing in the top 5 for the CYA or winning the MRA would really beef up his resume. 

I can't see the future, either. He could completely lose his touch and struggle recording saves like Joe Nathan this year. He also could rack up 50 saves a year if the Phillies offense can produce. 

Through 9.5 years, he has 300 saves. Typically closers last pretty long, so for the sake of argument, if we double his tenure to 19 years (same as Rivera and Trevor Hoffman), which is plausible given his track record of consistency and good health, he (theoretically) should record 600 saves. If he does that, then he's a lock.

It's a mandator skill of Hall of Famers to be able to smoke a stogie. 

Thanks for reading.