Here's how it will work: for each division, I will list the records I predicted, the current standings, a grade of my prediction, and a quick rundown of how each team has been playing. Here we go!
AL East:
My guess:
1) Boston 100-62
2) Tampa Bay 93-69
3) New York 91-71
4) Baltimore 82-80
5) Toronto 72-90
Current standings:
1) Toronto 45-38
2) Baltimore 42-38
3) New York 41-38
4) Boston 37-44
5) Tampa Bay 34-49
Grade: F
Basically flip flop the standings and I'd be right. Behind Buehrle's 10 wins and Encarnacion's crazy power numbers, the Jays are flying right past my prediction. The Orioles have had similar success with Nelson Cruz's power outburst and production from Crush Davis and Adam Jones. The Yankees will probably finish around .500, not 20 games above like I predicted. Injury issues with Beltran and a lack of production from McCann overshadow Tanaka's glowing start. Boston has had injury problems as well with Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino and its hurt. Brock Holt has been a bright replacement but Jackie Bradley Jr. is a big step behind where Jacoby Ellsbury was last year in center. The Rays just can't produce. Though David Price leads the league in strikeouts, the Rays simply can't hit - former ROYs Evan Longoria and Wil Myers are hitting .264 and .227, respectively. James Loney is the team's best hitter at .280 and they are 11th in the AL in team average and home runs. Missing Matt Moore hurts a lot as the Rays starters have the worst win-loss percentage in the AL, despite a team ERA of 3.87. Grant Balfour has been grossly underwhelming with only 10 saves and a bloated ERA of 5.52. The Rays need to turn it around fast.
AL Central:
My predictions:
1) Detroit 95-67
2) Cleveland 93-69
3) Kansas City 86-76
4) Chicago 71-91
5) Minnesota 69-93
Current standings:
1) Detroit 44-33
2) Kansas City 41-39
3) Cleveland 39-41
4) Chicago 38-44
5) Minnesota 36-43
My grade: B-
In terms of standings, I wasn't that far off except for switching the Indians and Royals. In terms of records, I overprojected for the top and underprojected the bottom. The Tigers had their annual early season slump, losing 16 of 22 games but have slowly clawed their way back to the top of the the weakest division in the AL behind strong starting pitching and the Martinezes (Victor and JD) just mashing (Victor: .323, 20 home runs, JD: .311, 9 home runs, AL player of the week). Eugenio Suarez has been a pleasant surprise at shortstop filling in for the injured Jose Iglesias, hitting .300 with 3 home runs in 21 games. The Royals are incredibly streaky, winning 10 in a row and then losing 4. Pitching is solid, but their big names need to start hitting - Hosmer (.249), Infante (.244) and Moustakas (.178, also the coolest name in baseball) need to step up for a postseason run. Cleveland is the same story. Cory Kluber and Josh Tomlin have picked up the slack for a quiet Justin Masterson and now Oriole Ubaldo Jimenez, but the team's hitting is weak. Except for Brantley (.321) and Chisenhall (.350), the big names are again coming up short. Swisher (.195), Santana (.209) and Kipnis (.254) need to get hot for the team to make a run. Chicago has had the opposite problem; they mash the ball (scoring 354 runs, 6th in AL) but have allowed the most runs in the AL (389). Alexei Ramirez has found his stroke, hitting .295 and rookie Jose Abreu has lived up to his power hype, slugging .631 and is tied for first in the MLB with 25 dingers is 4th in RBI with 63. The Twins are proving to play spoiler behind big seasons from Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, and starting pitcher Phil Hughes. Joe Mauer's uncharacteristically low .271 average will perk up with Kendrys Morales to protect him and this team could play .500 ball down the stretch when Plouffe comes off the DL.
AL West
My predictions:
1) Oakland 92-70
2) Texas 90-72
3) LA 81-81
4) Seattle 74-88
5) Houston 57-108
Current standings:
1) Oakland 50-30
2) LA 45-34
3) Seattle 43-38
4) Texas 37-43
5) Houston 35-47
Grade: C-
Well, I got Oakland right. Scott Kazmir (9-3, 2.66) has provided a surprising amount of stability for the starting rotation, allowing Sonny Gray (7-3, 3.20) and Jesse Chavez (6-4, 2.94) to have great seasons. An offensive anomaly, the A's rank 8th in team average (.254) but first in runs (414) - they love the long ball and situational hitting, I suppose. The Angels have perked up considering Pujols is back to Pujols and Trout is hitting for more power despite stealing fewer bases and striking out more. CJ Cron, Colin Cowgill, and Hank Conger are great role playing backups that give Scioscia breathing room if someone gets hurt. With a strong rotation of 3 pitchers boasting 8 wins and a team ERA of 3.87, the Angels will have to hope for the Wild Card given how Oakland is playing. As I predicted, Cano is hitting for a very good average (.316) but little power (4 home runs), but is providing good leadership as Kyle Seager has come out of his shell a little bit. King Felix is King Felix and surprisingly Chris Young is their 2nd best starter (7-4, 3.15); Fernando Rodney is 6th in MLB with 22 saves but is also Fernando Rodney with a WHIP of 1.27. Texas: injuries. Derek Holland, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland, Matt Harrison, Tanner Scheppers, Alexi Ogando, Robbie Ross, and Martin Perez have all served or are serving time on the DL. In Beltre we trust (.333, .378, .512). Houston is shocking, considering Jose Altuve is having the best season for any second basemen so far this year (.343, 113 hits, 34 steals). George Springer has also been a bright spot from the minors, showing the farm system is fruitful - Springer leads the team with 15 home runs and 40 RBI in 63 games.
I'll do the National League tomorrow - I don't want to wear you all out (okay, I lied, I'm actually just headed out to go golfing on my day off).
Thanks for reading!
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