Now that we all know that I am completely incapable of seeing six months into the future (at least for baseball - six months from now, I predict it will be December), it is time for even further self-deprecation and to look at my NL grades. Here we go. Ugh.
NL East:
My prediction:
1) Atlanta 94-68
2) Washington 90-72
3) Philadelphia 75-87
4) Miami 68-94
5) New York 60-102
Current standings:
1) Atlanta 44-38
2) Washington 43-38
3) Miami 39-43
4) New York 37-45
5) Philadelphia 36-46
Grade: B
So far, not bad. This division is much closer than most anyone expected, and other than the Phillies being in the bottom, I was just about there. With the losses of Gavin Floyd, Brandon Beachy, and Kris Medlen to injury and the ageless wonder Tim Hudson to the Giants, Atlanta's pitching was in question and Aaron Harang and Julio Teheran have stepped up to fill the gaps, enough to get the ball to Kimbrel so he can be Kimbrel (see my post: Release the Kimbrel). Offensively, no one is having a career year though everyone is producing just about at where they were expected to (Gattis, Freeman, and J. Upton all hitting well). The Nationals, even without Bryce Harper, have continued to compete behind big years from Adam "Back from the Dead" Laroche (.308, 11 HR) and Anthony Rendon (.282, 12 HR). Doug Fister (6-2, 2.83) has proved to be a great acquisition; the team ERA is first in the NL though they just can't hit enough for wins. How about the Marlins? Minus last year's ROY Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez and Nate Eovaldi have stepped up to fill that gap as well as superb team defense from Hechavarria and Ozuna. Stanton (.316, 21 HR, 60 RBI) has been hitting moonshot after moonshot, which is why the Marlins are 3rd in the NL in runs. The Mets have been led by Bartolo Colon's strong pitching with Matt Harvey absent and Zack Wheeler still growing into his role as a starter. The offense is quiet night after night; their .238 team average is 13th in the NL. Curtis Granderson is having another low-average, high strikeout season (as I predicted given the capacity of Citi Field; surprisingly, Daniel Murphy is the Mets' leading hitter. I guessed that the Phillies age was going to be a liability, but not to this extent; their .240 average is 12th in the NL and are 11th in runs with 313. Mike Buchanan is their only starting pitcher who has a record above .500, and he's only 4-3. Cliff Lee is 4-4, Cole Hamels 2-4, and AJ Burnett 5-7. Ben Franklin could come back and pitch, that's always an option.
NL Central
My prediction:
1) St. Louis 102-60
2) Cincinnati 94-68
3) Pittsburgh 93-69
4) Chicago 69-93
5) Milwaukee 65-97
Current standings:
1) Milwaukee 51-33
2) Cincinnati 43-38
3) St. Louis 44-39
4) Pittsburgh 42-40
5) Chicago 34-46
Grade: Something lower than failing
Well, I am a moron. I predicted MIlwaukee to have 65 wins this whole season and they'll get it before the end of July. The Brewers offense is hard to stop; they are 2nd in the NL in runs, hits, average, and home runs; 5 starters have 10+ home runs (Reynolds, Ramirez, Davis, Gomez, Braun) and 3 are batting .300+ (Lucroy, Gennett, Gomez; Ramirez and Braun are just shy). K-Rod is revitalized, leading the league with 27 saves and Kyle Lohse is quietly going 9-2 with a 3.08 ERA. Sorry Brewers. The Reds are right on track, with incredibly impressive first halves from Alfredo Simon (10-3, 2.81) and Johnny Cueto (8-5, 1.88). Newly acquired Devin Mesoraco is hitting .307 and 14 home runs; Joey Votto has the third lowest average on the team and they are still performing well - that's the sign of a playoff team. The Cardinals have been offensively underperforming (team average is 7th in NL, 12th in runs) but a .325 season from Matt Adams and .280 from catcher Yadi Molina put them above .500. Defensively, the Cardinals are second to none (actually they are 4th in team ERA), but Adam Wainwright is having an incredible season, going 10-4 with a 2.01 ERA thus far. The Pirates are also underperforming, perhaps still working off the hangover from their first playoff appearance in 20+ years. Offensively, McCutchen is back hard at work, hitting .314 and Gregory Polanco has been a pleasant surprise, hitting safely in his first 10 games as a rookie when he came up earlier this month. The problem has been the pitching; their 3.79 ERA is 11th in the NL and Francisco Liriano, the one whom many considered to be the Pirates x-factor, has not shown his A-game, going 1-6 with a 4+ ERA so far. The Cubs are the typical heartbreaking Cubs, losing games in miraculous fashion; new acquisition Jose Veras got the yips and was later cut and though ace Jeff Samardzija has a 2.83 ERA, he is only 2-7, because the bats have just been quiet all year. Except for Anthony Rizzo (.282, 17 home runs) and Starlin Castro, only one player is batting above .270. No pitching and no hitting is a bad combination, which is why the Cubs are begrudging owners of the worst NL record - with how impatient Epstein has been with his managers, you begin to wonder how long Rick Renteria will last as skipper.
NL West
My predictions:
1) LA 98-64
2) Arizona 83-79
3) San Francisco 81-81
4) Colorado 72-90
5) 70-92
Current standings:
1) San Francisco 46-36
1) LA 47-37
3) Colorado 36-46
4) San Diego 35-47
5) Arizona 35-49
My grade: C/C+
The NL West is a weak division. I said in my predictions that the Dodgers could spend the entire season in first place - that was wrong; they've only spent a handful in first place and as of today have caught up with the Giants for a tie for first. Who knows where it will go from here, but it will be hard for the Dodgers to replicate what they did in last year's second half, though Kershaw and Beckett have shown they can shut down any lineup. The Giants don't necessarily lead the league in a lot of offensive categories, but they are up there in all the power numbers (4th in slugging, 1st in triples, 3rd in home runs); it may seem that Bochy is adopting the Earl Weaver style of managing: pitching, defense, and the three-run home run. Colorado is playing just about to my guess - amazing offense, but no pitching. Blackmon, Tulo, Stubbs, and Arenado are all batting .295 or above, and the Rockies lead the MLB in team average at .285 (2nd is Detroit at .276 and then Baltimore at .265 - they're on fire). On the flip side, they rank dead last in team ERA at 4.95, and are in the bottom 5 in nearly every pitching category - I got them right at least.The Padres and Diamondbacks have just played bad baseball; the Padres are the league's worst offense (last in NL in average, on base, slugging, hits, and runs), but have kept the ship upright from good starting pitching from Cashner (2-6, 2.53 ERA, has Samrdzija Syndrome) and Tyson Ross (6-8, 3.18). The Diamondbacks are capable of so much more - I think we'll see a second half surge from them to finish a few games below .500. Aaron Hill, who is on pace to produce the same number of home runs and even more RBI, just isn't getting on base as much for Goldy and Parra to drive in. Like I said, I think they'll turn it around.
Well, I got a few teams right. I hope my lack of vision won't turn you away from reading more!
Thanks for stopping by!
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