Release the Kimbrel

With my recent post about Jonathan Papelbon, I was intrigued by some other closers and was looking into the closers of today. K-Rod is back from the dead, leading the MLB in saves  with 21 going into play today, the Giants Romo is 2nd with 20 and then four are tied with 19; through ~ 70 games, we are on pace to have 6 (maybe 8) closers with 40+ saves, and some people might not even reach 50, which shows that it is not necessarily harder to close games, nor is it that the closers have been worse (1.69 blown saves in 2014 vs. 2.61 blown saves in 2013), its just that there are more blowouts (I think).

Before I get too off topic, I want to talk about a player who has only been in the league for 5 years (2014 is his 5th year), and is already his teams leader in saves and is T71 all time with 158: Craig Kimbrel.

He puts his arm like that because any swinging or swaying while taking signs is a balk.

Kimbrel does another goofy intimidation thing, but when you're this good, you can do whatever you want. You'll remember in my Pap post that I commented on the staredown, but considering that Kimbrel could probably beat me up with his mind, I won't say anything. 

Okay, but Kimbrel though. Go to the Braves Instagram page, or search #ReleasetheKimbrel and you'll see the Ted rocking when this guy comes out in the 9th to slam the door. It's a chilling video and I claim that Kimbrel is the best closer in the game today.

But that's kind of obvious, isn't it? Okay, fine. He has potential to be the best closer we've ever seen.

Kimbrel won Rookie of the Year in 2011 at the young age of 23 along with Trout in the American League, making them some of the highest performing rookies we've seen in a long time (I almost said most talented but all winners of the ROY are talented, so I think this is a better qualifier). Even before his official rookie year in 2010, Kimbrel was 4-0 with a .44 ERA. Wait, what? Yes, a .44 ERA. In 20.2 IP, he allowed one earned run. One. Kimbrel came on in a mop up role (well not quite, they were down 5-1 in the 8th) in May (his third appearance ever) against the Diamondbacks and allowed a run on a walk, steal, sac fly, and single. He still struck out 2. 

Then 2011 rolled around and Kimbrel cemented his spot at the back end of the Braves bullpen. He pitched in 79 games (most relievers throw between 50-60) and recorded 46 saves, most in the NL. He also led the NL in games finished with 64 while posting a 2.10 ERA, a career worst. 

In 2012, he posted a 1.01 ERA, recorded 42 saves (led NL) and had a WHIP of .654. Put differently, he wouldn't allow a hit or a walk for basically every other appearance. Last year, his ERA was worse (1.21) and a WHIP of .881 but recorded more saves (50), which is his career high to date. 

So back to my claim earlier. Let's assume Kimbrel pitches until he is 40 years old, which will allow 18 full seasons in the Major Leagues. Right now, according to Baseball Reference, he is averaging 41 saves a season. Multiply this 18 seasons times 41 saves and you get 738 saves, which would break Mariano Rivera's save record by 86 (two seasons worth). Wow.

I don't want to be Debbie Downer over here, but just for the sake of being realistic, Kimbrel may need Tommy John surgery or could have another type of injury. I do NOT want this to happen at all, I love watching him pitch because he's so dominant and makes even the best hitters quiver, but for just for arguing, let's say he goes down. If he were to go down right now with 19 saves, he would not be able to make it back until the 2015 All-Star Game. So, if he misses the rest of this season, he'll miss out on let's say 25 saves. Career total down to 713. Then with rehab, recovery, and return, he'll miss another half a season, another 25 saves. Career total down to 688, still a full season ahead of Mariano Rivera's all-time record. For another argument, let's say he only plays 15 years, through age 37. 15 seasons x 41 save average is 615, still good enough for second all time. 

If he continues on this torrid pace, not only will he be crazy high on the all-time saves list, but his ERA will one of the best ever. With a 1.45 ERA, he is clearly in the lead for closers and pitchers that have been around for more than just a cup of coffee. But, the minimum qualifier is 1000 innings pitched. Kimbrel only has 254. He'll have to quadruple that (AKA play 20 seasons of sub 2 ERA) to win the career ERA crown. He also could qualify for the WHIP crown, but doesn't have the qualifier. 

His stat lines are just mind blowing. I don't really have much to say about him other than his opportunity to be the greatest closer ever. He's already the Braves saves leader, and only at age 26, the sky is honestly the limit. 

Is there anything he can't do? This picture just says to me, "Hey, I can close games and dress down for a relaxing evening of investing and gin rummy."

Thanks for reading.