J-Roll

Last week, Phillie for life Jimmy Rollins broke Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt's franchise record for hits at 2,235. Rollins, with a weeks worth of games since then, now sits at 2,241 entering play on the 22nd of June. First of all, congratulation J-Roll, whose 5'8", 170 pound frame is in the top 10 of nearly every offensive category in Phillies history. And second, what an amazing moment for he and the Phillies fans to see Mike Schmidt come out and celebrate. 

Courtesy of the Phillies on Instagram. 

On a 3-1 count in the 5th inning, Rollins took a fastball from Cubs starter Edwin Jackson and sent it into right field and also sent Citizens Bank into pandemonium for a new franchise leader. This ESPN article does a nice job recounting his career accomplishments and his place in the Phillies organization. In case you don't want to click on the article, I'll highlight it for you: 

• First in doubles (466)
• Second in: extra base hits (782), total bases (3,540), games (2,015), at-bats (8,331)
• Third in: steals (436), runs (1,281), triples (109) 

And he still has the rest of this year to rise up in the ranks. At age 35, this is probably his final season, but we shall see. He and fellow middle infielder Chase Utley (also 35) have been in double play partners for 11 years in the City of Brotherly Love, so if one goes, they both will. I think they'll both retire Phillies and I also think this won't be their final year. 

Is Jimmy Rollins a Hall of Famer? Unfortunately, I do not think so. He is a great player and has been a tremendous leader for the Phillies, but he's not one of the greatest players to ever win the game. He plays the game the right way and you can tell he respects it, but is he in the top 1% of all time? No. That said, I don't want to leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, here are some of my favorite career highlights of his:

1) The 2008 World Series

The Phillies had not won a World Series since 1980 until this exciting matchup with the miracle Rays. Though Rollins did not necessarily hit at an incredibly high level (.227/.261/.318), he scored 2/3 of the times he was on base. I think that is an amazing stat (as well as a good indication of the Phillies situational hitting) - his leadership at its best.

2) 20-20-20-20

This quad-twenties is another incredibly impressive feat that shows a well-rounded nature to a player's game. In 2007, the same year in which Rollins won his only MVP, he hit 38 doubles, 20 triples, 30 home runs, and stole 41 bases. Only three other players in the history of the game have managed to log at least 20 of each doubles, triples, steals, and home runs (Frank Schulte, Willie Mays, Curtis Granderson) - but what makes this more impressive is that he was the leadoff hitter. He also didn't miss a game. 

3) Once a Phillie, Always a Phillie

J-Roll's rookie year was with the Phillies in 2000. His final year will be with the Phillies. For a guy who was born and raised in Oakland, California, it could have been very easy for him to start with the Phillies and go home back to Oakland or LA, but he stuck with them for his entire career. I love that in players. It's rare nowadays and to be honest, if I were a pro, I would probably want to hop around to whoever would pay me the most / my best chance at a title was. He's seen 5 different managers, but only 2 losing seasons. Just to prove how important he is to the team: the Phillies went 65-97 his rookie year. The year after his best personal season ever they won the World Series - and now that his career is on his way out, so are the Phillies as they are 34-39 going into play today (a lot of this has to do with Ryan Howard, Papelbon, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, Chooch, etc, but HEY this blog is about J-Roll guys, come on!)

Congratulations, Jimbo Slice. Coming soon - a tribute to the great Mr. Padre, Tony Gwynn. 

Thanks for reading.

Jonathan Papelbon

Hello everyone, sorry I've been away and haven't posted in a while. The Whitecaps are hosting the Midwest League All-Star Game next week so we've been putting in some long days at the old yard. While I was out, the Phillies' closer Jonathan Papelbon recorded his 300th career save, a truly impressive feat (especially only at the age of 33) that puts him at 24th all time, tied with Jason Isringhausen and Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter. Papelbon, a southern boy who played his college ball at Mississippi State, has served for both the Red Sox and Phillies, winning the 2007 World Series with the Sox over the Rockies in what I call the most boring World Series of the last twenty years (until 2012 but we don't talk about that since the Tigers were in it and got swept). 

Papelbon's memorable reaction after the final out in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series. It was Boston's 2nd title in 4 years.

The 300-save plateau is an elite group of closers. It seems as if that is the magic number for closers in order to be inducted into the Hall of Fame - no closer with fewer than 300 has been inducted (with the exception of Smoltz when his time comes, but he was a hybrid starter/closer). That said, 7 of those 26 with 300 saves are ineligible for the Hall of Fame (5-year retirement period has not passed yet), and of the remaining 19, only 4 have been inducted. So there have been 19 players in history to record 300 saves but only 4 have ever been inducted. Take away the 4 Hall of Famers (Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter), and out of those 15 players, only 4 have ever received more than 1% of the vote. Only 1, Lee Smith, has consistently received more than 5% to remain on the ballot (Hall of Fame voting procedure states that if a player does not receive 5% of the vote, he will not be on the next year's ballot)  - he's been on 11 years and has gotten 50.6% at the most. It's not looking good for him.

It's not looking good for many closers. But here's my case for Papelbon.

• He's still got a few good years ahead of him. Papelbon is only 33 years old and will not turn 34 until November. With 14 saves for the offensively anemic Phillies already, he is on pace for around 40 saves. For the sake of argument, if he notches 40 saves this year, he'll be tied for 14th with 326 saves (I didn't account for K-Rod or Joe Nathan moving up the ranks - too many moving figures for me to count right now). If Bruce Sutter got in with 300 exactly (and a losing record), Papelbon deserves it. Closers can usually last up to their 40th birthday, so he could keep climbing the ladder if his body permits.
• Okay, purely number of saves may not do it for you? How about accolades? He has a World Series ring, which only a handful of the top 26 have (Rivera has like 100). A ring isn't all he got though, he was named the 2007 World Series MVP, recording saves in Games 2, 3, and 4. He was also selected 5 All-Star teams, which may not seem like a lot but he was the rival closer to Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time. Typically, All-Star rosters only will hold 3 or 4 closers (they've been holding a lot more recently), so to be selected (not by fans, either) to 4 straight rosters alongside Mo says a lot about his talent. He was also the runner up in the Rookie of the Year voting to Justin Verlander in 2006.
• Fine, if the accolades aren't doing it for you either, I'll turn to his stat sheet. Papelbon has been one of the most consistent closers of the past 15 years, and frankly I was shocked at how really consistent he has been after looking at his BBR page. He has played between 59-70 games every year, his ERA has been under 3.00 every year except 2010, and has been under 4 every year of his career. After his rookie year, his WHIP has never been higher than 1.2. Even counting his rookie year, he's never been above 1.4 (4 years under 1.00). He's never allowed more than 8 home runs in a year and has yet to allow one this year. Other than 2010, he's never thrown more than 2 wild pitches in a season. Even after a change of scenery and change of leagues, he was not phased and still recorded 38 saves in his first year in a Phillies uniform in 2011.
• Bottom line, career stats: 35-27, 2.36 ERA, 1.035 WHIP, 300 saves. 

He stays out of trouble, he's generally well-liked around the league, and to be honest, except for this "I'm trying really hard to be intimidating" face, 

I really don't have much bad to say about him. 

Now, Pap has blown 41 saves in his career, but comparing to other closers, that isn't all that bad. Rivera blew 72 saves in 19 years, so Papelbon is a little off the pace, but not bad. Dennis Eckersley blew over 70 saves as well, and I think when all is said and done, Pap will be right around 80 blown saves, give or take a few. If he keeps pitching like this year, maybe not (he's doing really well this year). 

He also has never been a finalist for the Cy Young Award or the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award (now to be named the Mariano Rivera Award) for best reliever. Those are the big ones for pitchers and ideally, winning or even placing in the top 5 for the CYA or winning the MRA would really beef up his resume. 

I can't see the future, either. He could completely lose his touch and struggle recording saves like Joe Nathan this year. He also could rack up 50 saves a year if the Phillies offense can produce. 

Through 9.5 years, he has 300 saves. Typically closers last pretty long, so for the sake of argument, if we double his tenure to 19 years (same as Rivera and Trevor Hoffman), which is plausible given his track record of consistency and good health, he (theoretically) should record 600 saves. If he does that, then he's a lock.

It's a mandator skill of Hall of Famers to be able to smoke a stogie. 

Thanks for reading.

2014 Predictions: NL East

The NL East had some trouble with competition this past year. The Braves ran away with the division, winning it by 10 games over the Nationals and another 12 games over the next closest competitor. It was also an injury-ridden division. Even the Braves were not immune from the bug; Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, Dan Uggla, and BJ Upton all had stints on the 15-day DL and Tim Hudson got his ankle shattered against the Mets in the middle of the summer. Despite their hard luck (it was not as hard as anyone else's), Fredi Gonzalez rode the successes of Chris Johnson, Freddie Freeman, and Andrelton Simmons into the playoffs. I expect them to do the exact same thing in 2014.

NL East

1. Atlanta 94-68
All of the pieces are in place. Now it is time to perform. Last year, a lot of people left their game in the warm weather in Spring Training a la BJ Upton only hitting .184 and Dan Uggla .179. Evan Gattis was a pleasant surprise, crushing 21 home runs in 105 games, and he will take over the full time catching position since Brian McCann has gone to the Yankees. Freddie Freeman, coming off of an offseason engagement to his girlfriend, will be in high spirits and repeat his .319 campaign and lead the league in hugs given.

The second base position is shaky as of right now: Uggla will be back, but youngsters Joey Terdoslavich and Taylor Pastornicky (spell check is screaming at me right now) will also make a case for the spot come Spring. We'll see what Gonzalez picks. The rotation is solid, with new pitchers Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd joining the squad. The newly signed Julio Teheran will continue to improve along side of young hurlers Mike Minor and Kris Medlen. Floyd and Beachy will not be 20 game winners, that's for sure, but they are good 4th and 5th pitchers. If they can get any type of lead, they'll be turning it over to the *new* best closer in the game, Craig Kimbrel. 

2. Washington 90-72
A lot of folks are picking the Nats to be a powerhouse and even go all the way this year. I have a few reservations about them, namely the new management. Matt Williams is a very capable manager, but it is his first year - Mike Matheny went 88-74 in his first year and then won the pennant with almost the exact same team. I see that happening with the Nats. The rotation is arguably the strongest in the NL between Strasburg, Gio, Zim, newly acquired Fister, and Detwiler.

Strasburg and Detwiler had some injury issues last season, so if they stay healthy then I think they will go far. On the offensive side of the ball, the Nats can rake. They were third in the NL in overall home runs (161), and if you take away Gio Gonzalez's one home run, they are first in the NL in non-pitcher home runs (160). Between Zimmerman, Werth, Harper, and sometimes Ian Desmond, these fellas score a lot of runs, but their team OBP was .313, only 8th in the league. If everyone's healthy, I expect to see them as a Wild Card and my guess at their record could be wildly wrong.

3. Philadelphia 75-87
The Phillies had a very disappointing year, ending ultimately with the termination of Charlie Manuel. The senior circuit will continue this year in the town of Brotherly Love: with signing Marlon Byrd (age 36) to two years, AJ  Burnett (age 37) to a one year deal, and Carlos Ruiz (age 35) to a three-year deal this offseason, they got good players but not any younger. Ryan Howard will be back from his season-ending injury, which is great, but again, he's no spring chicken and he strikes out a lot. 

The average age of the Phillies last year was 30.1 years old (28.5-year old 25-man roster). Again, high talent, but also high age. They'll be great for spurts, but ultimately, injuries and fatigue will catch up to them.

4. Miami 68-94
Last year's 100-loss team will improve slightly. They ended the season on a bright note, no-hitting the Tigers and winning on a walkoff wild pitch. They have a strong young core led by reigning ROY Jose Fernandez and defensive whiz Adeiny Hechavarria.

The Fish also had a tremendous offseason, signing Rafael Furcal, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Garrett Jones. Mike Redmond knows what he's doing down in Miami, and now that he has the players to back him up (at least more so than last year). Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick will get more reps and see their averages go up, not a lot, but enough. Right now, here's what I peg their starting lineup to look like: Furcal 2B, Yelich CF, Stanton RF, Jones 1B, Salty C, Ozuna LF, Polanco/Lucas 3B, Hech SS, Pitcher. Not bad at all - a lot of growth to be done. Jones will provide useful protection for Stanton, so his average will shoot back up to his 2012 All-Star campaign of .290. The rotation is decent, again, extremely young, featuring Fernandez, Turner, Eovaldi, and Alvarez. The average age of these four is exactly 22 years old. It won't be the Marlins year, but in four or five years, look out. 

5. New York 60-102
Unfortunately, the Mets took a step back this season and probably won't have much hope to compete this year. Missing Matt Harvey is a huge blow, and quasi-rookie Zach Wheeler will have to step up. He went 7-5 last year which is solid, but he'll have to throw a lot of innings this year, which I know Terry Collins won't like (because that's exactly what happened to Harvey). Now, anemic pitching staff aside, they are regaining Captain America (David Wright) and newly acquired Curtis Granderson.

I think Grandy is an awesome player, but his uppercut swing inside of the quite spacious Citi Field will result in a lot of long fly balls and warning track power. After playing in the little league Yankee Stadium for a few years, he's conditioned to getting under the ball more than he probably should. His defense will shine in the green pastures of Queens, but his average will suffer (again). Travis d'Arnaud, the young but injury-ridden catcher, will take the starting role now that John Buck has left New York. Ike Davis likely will lose his job to Josh Satin, therefore rounding out the infield with Daniel Murphy and Omar Quintanilla up the middle. I may be blowing their age out of proportion and underestimating Wright's ability to win games, but this year won't be pretty. 

Spring Break

With the recent bad news of Schilling's diagnosis and Kiner's passing, I think we are in order for a more optimistic post. This week a few friends and I finalized the plans for Spring Break this year: we're headed down to Lakeland to watch the Tigers play a handful of Spring Training games; 4 home, 1 away. We'll be seeing Tigers/Nationals three out of the five games, which is intriguing.

Before the 2013 season, MLB Network analysts (that word always looks like its spelled incorrectly, doesn't it? What a weird word) Tom Verducci and Larry Bowa picked the Nats to win it all, while Ken Rosenthal and Mitch Williams said the same for the Tigers (I can't let it go that Plesac picked the Blue Jays). Granted that was before the 2013 season began, but I feel that they both have put themselves in a position to face off in October of 2014. 

With the offseason trade of Doug Fister for Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol, and prospect Robbie Ray, which many say was a terrible trade for the Tigers, I can't wait to see Dougie in a Nats uniform. Red doesn't look as good as the old English D on that tall glass of water if you ask me, but I think he will succeed here. Most famous for his nasty 2-seam fastball, he does not allow a lot of home runs, only giving up 14 in 208 IP in 2013. Despite leading the league in hit batsmen last year, his HR/9 is phenomenal: the only time it was over 1 was his rookie year. But how much of that was due to his home park? His first three years were spent in Seattle at Safeco Field, one of the friendliest parks in the league to pitchers. Comerica Park in Detroit is the polar opposite. This past season, Comerica had a park factor of 1.139, 3rd in the league, meaning it was the 3rd friendliest park to hitters. Impressive work from Mr. Fister. Now that he's moving to the NL East, expect similar numbers - low home runs, high strike percentages, but also a lot of hits. Because Fister throws so many strikes, hitters are quick to jump on anything straight, hoping they won't see the sidewinding 2-seam. Last year, Fister's opponent BAbip was .333, allowing 229 hits, 3rd most in the league.

The addition of Matt Williams was a smart choice for the Nationals. Williams, who was around winning teams his whole player career including the champion Diamondbacks in 2001, knows what it takes to run a team, even though it is his first time. In an interview with ESPN, Williams shared that he would bring in old school baseball (slugging, defense), but also will bring in more sabermetrics to his position as well. Williams was an incredibly aggressive 3rd base coach for the Diamondbacks under Kirk Gibson, so I'm excited to see how that shows when we see them.  

The Nationals have a really young team, with an average age of 27.7. Their rotation is filthy; many call it the best in the league (I still think the Tigers has an edge). Flame throwing Stephen "China Doll" Strasburg, notoriously inconsistent Gio Gonzalez, silent NL wins leader Jordan Zimmermann, new Doug Fister, and a respectable back end in Ross Detwiler. Offensively, the Nats love to strikeout and hit the long ball. With a healthy Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman (who royally screwed my fantasy team last year by being hurt), their power numbers should go up just a little bit. In the....well, let's say 'rebuilding' NL East, the Nationals will be near the top. But not at the top. 

Fredi Gonzalez has the Braves running smoothly. Evan Gattis will be anchoring the field in a new role as starting catcher now that Brian McCann wanted some roughage and went to the Big Apple. Simmons, Freeman, and Heyward will continue to shine and be solid on both sides of the ball, and as we saw the greatest closer ever retire last year, the next best thing in Craig Kimbrel is right behind him. Even though they added Curtis Granderson, the Mets still will be below .500, especially with Matt Harvey missing year due to a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament. Captain America should be healthy the whole year, but the Mets still have more questions than answers, namely what is going on with Ike Davis and will EYJ get on base enough to steal?  The Phillies are getting Ryan Howard back as well as free agent pick up Marlon Byrd (two animals, one man), but are not getting any younger (except for their new manager Ryne Sandberg). Chooch, Chutley, and J-Roll are all entering their age 35 season but are expected to play 150+ games. Howard is 34, as is Cliff Lee, and Byrd is 36. Talent is high in some corners of the field, but there is a huge question mark at third base. The Marlins future is bright, especially with Rookie of the Year phenom Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton. They had an awesome offseason, signing veteran leader and champion Rafael Furcal, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, slugger Garrett Jones, and an incredibly underrated outfielder Reed Johnson. All come from successful teams in 2013 and can offer great examples of leadership. Like the Nationals, the Marlins are a wicked young team, and studs like Adeiny Hechavarria, Christian Yelich (Baseball America's #15 prospect), and Marcell Ozuna (#75) can learn a lot from their new veterans. 

Sorry for the lengthy post, but sunshine and baseball gets me excited. I won't get into predictions just yet, but for now, expect the Braves to win the East. 

As always, thanks for reading. I'll leave you with this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0H9VthNLh8. Enjoy.

Happy birthday to Vlad Guerrero and Moon Mullen!