Thoughts on Stanton

As many of you already know, Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton was hit in the face by a pitch of a Michael Fiers fastball in the top of the 5th inning against the Brewers on Thursday. Stanton has been producing at an MVP caliber rate so far this year (see my post about the NL MVP race from last month), and that came to a grinding halt after this unfortunate turn of events. Stanton actually turned his body into it so much that it was called a strike, and pinch hitter Reed Johnson was hit on the hand the next pitch. The Marlins bench cleared, colorful examples of adult vocabulary were exchanged, but Michael Fiers did not hit Stanton on purpose. Here's why:

When you look at the big picture, the Marlins are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot. Even without last year's Rookie of the Year winner Jose Fernandez, the Marlins have fought valiantly to sit third in what has turned out to be a very weak NL East division. The Marlins, entering play today, are tied for third with the Mets, both 12 games back of the Nationals and a winning percentage of .486 (Miami has played 2 fewer games). While the Marlins have virtually nothing to lose being 6.5 games out of the second wild card, the Brewers are hanging on by a thread in their own playoff picture, 4 games back of St. Louis for first place in the NL Central and 1.5 games back of the second wild card spot. Keep in mind, Milwaukee was leading the division by 6.5 games to begin July and led by a game as August faded into September, so if they miss the playoffs, it would be a pretty big choke. They needed this game.

In this particular situation, Stanton was up with the bases loaded and two outs. Stanton is a .316 hitter with runners in scoring position this year - that's really good, but it gets even better: with two outs and runners in scoring position, his average jumps a healthy margin to .340 and a .620 slugging percentage. That said, Stanton was also only hitting .208 against Brewers pitching in 2014. Sure he's a great hitter in clutch situations, but there are two outs - beaning him would push a run across and keep the inning going for hit machine Casey McGehee, who is hitting .344 with two outs, .313 with runners in scoring position, and .295 with two outs and men in scoring position. You may avoid the game tying grand slam from Stanton, but then you have bases loaded again with a three run lead for McGehee, who has decent power to the alleys and could clear the bases, especially with Jeff Mathis (slow, but would score easily) on third, and speedsters Jordany Valdespin and Christian Yelich occupying the other two bags.

If the game situation isn't enough for you, just look at how Fiers was pitching this year. In 11 games, he is (now) 6-2 with a 1.84 ERA and a WHIP of .857. Those are great numbers, especially for a team that is struggling like the Brewers, whose offense virtually disappeared in the beginning of August on their way to a 9-game losing streak. They need good pitching while the offense regroups - why would Fiers put that in jeopardy?

Last but not least, just look at his reaction after Stanton falls down. 

"What have I done?"

It just wouldn't make sense for Fiers to bean Stanton intentionally.  The Brewers were up 4-0 and Fiers had Stanton on the ropes 0-2. Stanton has been known to be a free swinger, with a good slider or high cheese, he could swing right through it and the inning would be over. Fiers is a 29 year old veteran who knows better, and knows baseball well enough to go right for the head if you're aiming intentionally. You go for the back, like Cole Hamels did on Bryce Harper back when Harper was a rookie (kids, you didn't hear that from me). The Brewers needed that win.

While Stanton's season is likely over, so is the Marlins'. They were flirting with a playoff spot and like I said earlier, have nothing to lose. They already overcame most expectations of this season; I didn't think they'd be anywhere near .500, and when you take Fernandez away, I wasn't expecting them to get 65 wins. They have a shot at 80 wins this year, a huge improvement from last year and a sign to come that the Fish could be serious contenders in the future. 

Marlins manager Mike Redmond said in a postgame interview "we lost our MVP." In my mind, so did the NL. Stanton's 37 home runs, 94 walks, .555 slugging, .950 OPS, and 105 RBIs all lead the National League now that Troy Tulowitzki is sidelined for the remainder of 2014. Stanton's RBI total is first in the majors, tied with Angels outfielder Mike Trout. There is doubt in my mind that the Marlins success is directly proportional to Stanton's and that without him, they wouldn't even be in contention.

Kershaw has been lights out in LA this year, but if you take him off that team, I think they are still in the playoffs. Kershaw leads the league in wins, ERA, WHIP, etc. But look at his value to the Dodgers. The award would have been Stanton's but now that he is gone, I believe it is all Kershaw's. But I could be wrong.

Let's hope Stanton heals quickly and that he'll continue mashing next year. 

Thanks for reading. 

Worst Rookie of the Year?

In light of my recent posts and my apparent inability to predict any award winners or division winners, my curiosity took me on a journey through past award winners, and it got me thinking: who is the worst Rookie of the Year? This question is not asking who had the worst stats and still won the award, this question is asking who went on to have the most disappointing career after winning such a prestigious award. Winning the Rookie of the Year not only means you are the best new player (not all rookies are new entirely, e.g. any of the winners coming from Japan), but it also means you are expected to have an illustrious career (at least it does to me). Since the award's inception in 1947, only 6 AL players and 8 NL players have been inducted into the Hall of Fame, so why do I put so much useless pressure on the winners to perform later in their career? That's a question not for this blog.

Anyway, my original question: what Rookie of the Year winner had the worst career? I'll go by league and give a 3rd, 2nd, and 1st place finishing. 

AL, 3rd Place: Pat Listach, Milwaukee (they were AL before realignment)

Listach was a hot shortstop prospect for the Brewers. Coming Arizona State, an institution that has produced Dustin Pedroia, Barry Bonds, and Phil Mickelson, it is a shock that Listach crashed and burned so quickly. His first year, 1992,  boasted a .290 average, a .354 OBP, and 54 stolen bases in 149 games, good for him! Afterwards, Listach suffered from nasty injuries like a broken foot and a number of knee problems, which resulted in his playing time dwindle and productivity disappear. In '93, he only appeared in 98 games, and only 16 games in '94. He would never play a whole season again. It wasn't so much that Listach was a bad player, because when he wasn't injured, he was quite successful (hit .296 in those 16 games), it was that he was more unlucky than anything else. He now coaches third base for the Astros.

AL 2nd place: Bob Hamelin, Kansas City

The year following Listach's rookie campaign saw another bright hitter come to Kansas City in Bob Hamelin. Hamelin, a UCLA draft pick, was a first basemen who only hit .224 in his first 49 at-bats in 1991 and then hit .282 in his official rookie year. Like Listach, Hamelin only played 6 years, but he did not suffer from injuries - he just couldn't hit. In the encore of his ROY season, Hamelin only hit .168. He perked up a bit when he went to Detroit, hitting .270 in 110 games, and then disappeared again in Milwaukee, only hitting .219 in 109 games. Sorry Bob. 

The American League Worst Rookie of the Year: Angel Berroa, Kansas City

Berroa, a native of the Dominican Republic, debuted with Kansas City in 2001 at the age of 23. He only appeared in 15 games, gathering 16 hits in 53 at-bats. Because the MLB rookie qualifications require a minimum of 75 at-bats, he was not technically a rookie until two years later in 2003 (he hit .227 in exactly 75 at-bats in 2002). In '03 (the same year my Tigers lost 119 games), Berroa began a lukewarm string of production from shortstop for the next 4 years with the Royals. He won the ROY hitting .287 with 17 home runs and 92 runs scored in 158 games for the Royals. For the rest of his career, his average would decrease. He hit .262 in 2004, .270 in 2005, and kept dipping and dipping until he hit .143 with the Yankees and Mets in 2009. Berroa only played 9 years, was never selected to an All-Star Game, and struck out 4 times for every walk he took. Not pretty. From 2006 to the end of his career, he only hit .163. Angel will call me Satan, but he is the worst AL Rookie of the Year.

I'll do the NL tomorrow, I am quite exhausted. And I also feel bad highlighting these guys simply because they didn't pan out - I mean no harm, I was just interested in how winning such a great award would pressurize a young career. I think we've been spoiled the last few years considering the AL award winners have been Trout, Verlander, Pedroia, Evan Longoria, etc...guys that have not only produced their first year but have continued to produce with All-Star Games, MVPs, and World Series rings. The NL should be interesting tomorrow. Thanks for reading. 

 

2014 Predictions: NL Central

Holy cow, what a stacked division. I had a tough time figuring this one out. It seems that a lot of divisions are really top heavy, with two or three great teams, and then two or three...other teams, and the NL Central is no exception. Expect the Cardinals to be playing late into the season again. 

NL Central

1. St. Louis 102-60
I have no problem labeling the Cardinals as the only team to win 100 games this year. I think they have the top-to-bottom lineup, a young rotation, a smattering of veteran leadership, and an tactical wizard of a manager in Mike Matheny. The Cardinals didn't make a lot of offseason moves, but they made highly efficient ones. Some of you might be thinking "how is a move efficient, Bill?" Well let me tell you. With the trade of David Freese and Fernando Salas to the Angels for Peter Bourjos, they freed up a spot for rising star Matt Carpenter (.318/.392/.481) at third, allowing newcomer Kolten Wong to start at second. Despite his faux pas in the World Series, the Cardinals have put a lot of stock into him and see a bright future. If he doesn't work out, then Mark Ellis (free agent from the Dodgers) will do a good job filling in. On the other side of second base, shortstop Jhonny Peralta will make his NL debut. To many, Peralta is a delinquent and his 4 year, $52 million contract is a negative incentive for PEDs. I agree to a certain extent with that, but he's paid his dues and I think he knows not to do it again. Also, despite his increased power numbers, Peralta also went through a swing change in the 2013 offseason, creating more of a line drive swing, allowing him to hit .303 before his suspension. His range at shortstop isn't good but the balls he gets to are fielded perfectly; that's why it's smart to have a quick third and second basemen - maybe they can reach some things he won't. Back to the outfield: though seeing perennial all-star Carlos Beltran go to New York was hard, Cardinals fans and administrators have a secret weapon in Oscar Taveras, who is likely to start in right this year. If he doesn't, then Jon Jay will. Either one is a good bet; Jay is a career .293 hitter and has good speed on the base paths. Taveras is an overwhelmingly popular pick for NL ROY. So pick your poison Cardinals. As always, Yadier Molina will be the best catcher in the NL (arguably the whole league now that Joe Mauer is no longer a catcher) again, and lead the team deep into the postseason. The Boston Globe called him a player to build around, and I could not agree more; he's a tactician, a great hitter, and stays out of trouble.

I'll leave you to chew on this: the Cardinals had a run differential last year of +187. Second to whom? The World Champion Red Sox. Don't be surprised if they hit +200 this year. 

2. Cincinnati 94-68
I promise you, even though I didn't pick the people's choice Pittsburgh Pirates to be near the top again, I still have a heart and soul. I think the Reds made better moves to compete. First and foremost, they fired bunt happy manager Dusty Baker and hired pitching coach Bryan Price. Here's why I like this move: A) it's hiring from within so Price knows the system and the players. Chemistry won't be an issue. B) It's not Dusty Baker. Baker is a fine manager, but only in the regular season. He's been graced with some incredibly talented teams (2002 Giants, 2003 Cubs, 2012 Reds) and could only take one pennant in 20 years managing. Now even though they lost Shin Soo Choo, speedster Billy Hamilton is taking his place, and if his average stays healthy, he could make a run at ROY. Rounding out the outfield with Jay Bruce and Chris Heisey, they will be in good shape on both sides of the ball. The infield is defensively sound, but sometimes lacking offensively. 2010 MVP Joey Votto is exempt from that statement with his .314 average and consistently league-leading OBP. Brandon Phillips (Dat Dude)

is a supplier of power, but not a lot of consistency. Despite his trade rumors he will be back in Cincy this year. Cozart and Frazier, hitting .254 and .234 respectively last year, will be the everyday starters on the left side. Cozart went through swing reconstruction this offseason, and I am eager if he can reach his full gap-to-gap potential. Having just signed Homer Bailey to 6 years and $105 million, the Reds are looking into the future, eyeing a title not this year, but definitely before 2020. Surrounding him with Mat Latos, Mike Leake (fantasy steal), and Johnny Cueto makes for a dangerous rotation (good dangerous).

3. Pittsburgh 93-69
I don't even know if its statistically possible to have three teams win 90 games in a season in the same division, but it's happening. Mainly because these three will beat up on the other two remaining teams, but nonetheless, the Pirates are still a great team. Neil Walker is an under-the-radar stud (probably just because he's Don Kelly's brother-in-law), Clint Barmes is a good defender, and Pedro Alvarez broke out last year to lead the NL in home runs. He only hit .233 but that's not what he's paid to do, am I right? Of course I am, that's why you've read this far. Naturally, we will see Cutch produce out of his mind, and young Starling Marte will follow suit and learn a lot. Losing AJ Burnett will hurt, but the signing of Edinson Volquez will bolster that somewhat; last year Burnett went 10-11, Volquez 9-12. He will likely be the 3rd or 4th starter, behind Francisco Liriano (who emerged late in the season as a pitcher who means business), Jeff Locke, and 22-year old Gerrit Cole. Clint Hurdle is an excellent manager, taking a team that batted .245 and sending them to their first playoff seed in over 20 years. They'll be back on the cornrows of MLB '13 The Show coverboy Andrew McCutchen.

4. Chicago 69-93
The outfield in Wrigleyville will look different at the beginning of next season. Not the physical grass, but who's playing there. Last year, it was Soriano, DeJesus, and Schierholtz. This year it will likely be Ryan Sweeney, Junior Lake (who unfortunately sacrificed rookie status last year, otherwise he could have made a run at ROY), and Schierholtz. Chris Coghlan will be roving as a 4th outfielder. Lake is a young injection of energy. Good fielder (came up as a shortstop) and base stealer, but he strikes out far too often to be effective long term. In 64 games in 2013, he struck out 68 times, but he also hit .284. We'll see what hitting coach Bill Mueller has in store for him this year in Arizona. The infield will be the same: Valbuena, Castro, Barney, Rizzo: all defense, little offense. The four of them hit a combined .226, with only Rizzo showing decent power. Having "Bad Scrabble Board" Jeff Samardzija

back as the ace will help matters, otherwise 9-12 Travis Wood is the ace. Jake Arrieta will return from injury, Jason Hammel is a good four starter, with the heavy loser (8-18 in 2013) Edwin Jackson bringing up the rear. Jose Veras (3.02 ERA in 2013) is a great pick up; Cubs fans will enjoy not have Marmol come in to close games, and young Pedro Strop will do swell in the setup role. New manager Rick Renteria will most likely be on a pretty short leash; 4 managers in 8 years, 13 in the last 23 years.

5. Milwaukee 65-97
Last year, the Brewers went 74-88, which wasn't bad considering they lost their best player, Ryan Braun, for a hefty suspension. I do not foresee that being their fortune this year. 'But Carlos Gomez had a career year!' Exactly: a career year. Not a year to change his career. He's a career .255 hitter. Aramis Ramirez, if he stays healthy, will have a little bit of relief since Braun is returning to the clean-up slot. 23-year old shortstop Jean Segura is an incredibly bright spot, batting .294 last season (highest of the non-dopers). Scooter Gennett is another solid young middle infielder, and he'll likely take over for .209 Rickie Weeks, but how much will he be able to hold up throughout the entire season? The pitching staff did add Matt Garza, a much needed ace, but he'll be pitching most of his games against the aforementioned Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates, so his offense will have to show up (not likely). Lyle Overbay will take over at first, and as much as I'd like to say he'll repeat what he did in New York last year (which was still only .240), I don't think they'll get much production out of him. They aren't a terrible team, but they also lost Corey Hart and play in a wicked division. Unfortunately, I don't think Bernie Brewer will be sliding too much this year.

Thanks for reading! Almost done with the divisions!