Thoughts on Stanton

As many of you already know, Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton was hit in the face by a pitch of a Michael Fiers fastball in the top of the 5th inning against the Brewers on Thursday. Stanton has been producing at an MVP caliber rate so far this year (see my post about the NL MVP race from last month), and that came to a grinding halt after this unfortunate turn of events. Stanton actually turned his body into it so much that it was called a strike, and pinch hitter Reed Johnson was hit on the hand the next pitch. The Marlins bench cleared, colorful examples of adult vocabulary were exchanged, but Michael Fiers did not hit Stanton on purpose. Here's why:

When you look at the big picture, the Marlins are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot. Even without last year's Rookie of the Year winner Jose Fernandez, the Marlins have fought valiantly to sit third in what has turned out to be a very weak NL East division. The Marlins, entering play today, are tied for third with the Mets, both 12 games back of the Nationals and a winning percentage of .486 (Miami has played 2 fewer games). While the Marlins have virtually nothing to lose being 6.5 games out of the second wild card, the Brewers are hanging on by a thread in their own playoff picture, 4 games back of St. Louis for first place in the NL Central and 1.5 games back of the second wild card spot. Keep in mind, Milwaukee was leading the division by 6.5 games to begin July and led by a game as August faded into September, so if they miss the playoffs, it would be a pretty big choke. They needed this game.

In this particular situation, Stanton was up with the bases loaded and two outs. Stanton is a .316 hitter with runners in scoring position this year - that's really good, but it gets even better: with two outs and runners in scoring position, his average jumps a healthy margin to .340 and a .620 slugging percentage. That said, Stanton was also only hitting .208 against Brewers pitching in 2014. Sure he's a great hitter in clutch situations, but there are two outs - beaning him would push a run across and keep the inning going for hit machine Casey McGehee, who is hitting .344 with two outs, .313 with runners in scoring position, and .295 with two outs and men in scoring position. You may avoid the game tying grand slam from Stanton, but then you have bases loaded again with a three run lead for McGehee, who has decent power to the alleys and could clear the bases, especially with Jeff Mathis (slow, but would score easily) on third, and speedsters Jordany Valdespin and Christian Yelich occupying the other two bags.

If the game situation isn't enough for you, just look at how Fiers was pitching this year. In 11 games, he is (now) 6-2 with a 1.84 ERA and a WHIP of .857. Those are great numbers, especially for a team that is struggling like the Brewers, whose offense virtually disappeared in the beginning of August on their way to a 9-game losing streak. They need good pitching while the offense regroups - why would Fiers put that in jeopardy?

Last but not least, just look at his reaction after Stanton falls down. 

"What have I done?"

It just wouldn't make sense for Fiers to bean Stanton intentionally.  The Brewers were up 4-0 and Fiers had Stanton on the ropes 0-2. Stanton has been known to be a free swinger, with a good slider or high cheese, he could swing right through it and the inning would be over. Fiers is a 29 year old veteran who knows better, and knows baseball well enough to go right for the head if you're aiming intentionally. You go for the back, like Cole Hamels did on Bryce Harper back when Harper was a rookie (kids, you didn't hear that from me). The Brewers needed that win.

While Stanton's season is likely over, so is the Marlins'. They were flirting with a playoff spot and like I said earlier, have nothing to lose. They already overcame most expectations of this season; I didn't think they'd be anywhere near .500, and when you take Fernandez away, I wasn't expecting them to get 65 wins. They have a shot at 80 wins this year, a huge improvement from last year and a sign to come that the Fish could be serious contenders in the future. 

Marlins manager Mike Redmond said in a postgame interview "we lost our MVP." In my mind, so did the NL. Stanton's 37 home runs, 94 walks, .555 slugging, .950 OPS, and 105 RBIs all lead the National League now that Troy Tulowitzki is sidelined for the remainder of 2014. Stanton's RBI total is first in the majors, tied with Angels outfielder Mike Trout. There is doubt in my mind that the Marlins success is directly proportional to Stanton's and that without him, they wouldn't even be in contention.

Kershaw has been lights out in LA this year, but if you take him off that team, I think they are still in the playoffs. Kershaw leads the league in wins, ERA, WHIP, etc. But look at his value to the Dodgers. The award would have been Stanton's but now that he is gone, I believe it is all Kershaw's. But I could be wrong.

Let's hope Stanton heals quickly and that he'll continue mashing next year. 

Thanks for reading. 

The Current NL MVP Race

I got a text from a close friend/Marlins fan this morning about my thoughts on the NL MVP race and lucky for him, I must have rapid fired at least 10 texts back about my thoughts.

At the beginning of the year, I picked Diamondbacks first basemen Paul Goldschmidt to win the MVP. Unfortunately, Goldy fell on a bit of bad luck recently, breaking his hand and being forced to spend the rest of the season on the DL. Goldschmidt was hitting an even .300, started for the NL All-Star team, and still is leading the majors in doubles despite being out of the lineup for the better part of a week. He would have been a compelling choice for most valuable player, but let's be honest, the award rarely goes to a player on a non-contender let alone a team that was the worst team in the league for the first half. The D'backs were in 5th in the NL West for every single day until June 28th and are now in 4th. Since his departure, Arizona is 3-6 (when I began writing), showing that he was a very valuable component to the success in the desert. 

The defending MVP Andrew McCutchen is also suffering from injury (a friend described his injury to me as if you're tearing the meat off the rib when eating a full slab of baby-backs), and is almost back to last season's form, hitting .311 and on pace for more steals, home runs, and RBIs. With this injury, he'll have to have a historic run when he comes back to get into the conversation. His numbers are good, but not MVP worthy as they sit. 

Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki started hot, stayed hot, and is still hot. As the NL starting shortstop for the All-Star Game, Tulo has been turning heads this season, leading the MLB in average, on-base, slugging, and OPS, which is becoming the most accurate representation of a hitter's productivity. But he has the Goldschmidt syndrome (or does Goldy have the Tulo syndrome?) where he plays for the worst team. Tulo's Rockies are in last place in the NL West and entering play yesterday, have the worst record in the majors and are 2-8 in their last 10 games. The Rockies aren't good because of Tulo, so I can't help but question his value. Not questioning his talent and production this year, but I am questioning his value. Now that he needs hip surgery and is out for the remainder of the year, we'll see if anyone can overcome his average and other offensive numbers. Between his team's performance and missing the final 40-45 games of the year, I don't think he'll be this year's winner. 

So here are our two finalists (at least for me): Giancarlo Stanton and Clayton Kershaw. If this were last year then I would say Stanton had a case of the Tulos or Goldys but the Marlins are 2 games below .500 and a game back of the Braves entering play yesterday. They are not completely out of the hunt but they aren't a playoff lock, either (can you imagine if Fernandez were still pitching?). However, a major part of the team's success is because of Stanton. Stanton is currently tied for first in the majors with 31 home runs (alone at the top in the NL by 4; the Cubs' Anthony Rizzo is 2nd with 27) and is 7th overall in RBIs, but again first in the NL with 82 (Dodgers' Adrian Gonzalez is 2nd with 80). With a .288 average, Stanton had turned a corner in terms of hitting for contact. Stanton is a career .270 hitter, and he only hit .249 last year (though he hit .290 in 2012). Combine that with his bombs for home runs (https://twitter.com/mlbgifs/status/498988723933945856) and you have a dynamic player who is offensive threat no matter what: with runners in scoring position and 2 outs, he is batting .297. When the Marlins are trailing, he is batting .306. He's also batting .288 with 9 home runs against divisional opponents (when it matters). Having Jose out for the year was a debilitating blow - can you imagine if Stanton were out too? 

Now it has already been proven that Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw is not a human and he may in fact not even be from this galaxy. He is that good. As I write this, he is 14-2 with a 1.78 ERA, a .85 WHIP, 5 complete games, 2 shutouts (including a no-hitter), a 8.58 strikeout to walk ratio and 10.8 strikeouts per 9 (stats in bold lead the NL). He leads the NL (and the MLB in a few) in almost every major stat except for strikeouts, but that's not his type of pitching. He's a shoo-in for the Cy Young Award, but what about MVP?

We haven't seen a pitcher win an MVP award since Justin Verlander in 2011, when he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, 4 complete games (2 shutouts), 250 K's, and a .920 WHIP. Kershaw has him beaten in nearly every stat except for strikeouts, but again, that's not Kershaw's game. 

Let's look at some splits to show how dominant he is: he gets better and better as the game goes on. In innings 1-3, Kershaw has a 2.59 ERA; 4-6 1.36; and 7-9 an ERA of .98. As the game goes on, he only gets better and better. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen is an electric closer, but unlike Kershaw, he's only human. He's pitched in 52 games this year, which is a lot for a reliever (9 behind the MLB leader). Regardless of Jansen's efficiency, ERA, saves, whatever, the ability for Kershaw to be that dominant late in games is so helpful to the Dodgers that it will give the bullpen a rest and other starters a leg to stand on. 

Kershaw is also 7-1 (2.09 ERA) against opponents in the NL West, a huge advantage for the Dodgers on strengthening their divisional lead. In addition, he has a 1.64 ERA on 4 days rest - again, incredibly valuable for the pitching staff and come playoff time. 

If I were making the choice, I would pick Kershaw. He has been that good, and that valuable to his team - and the league in terms of bringing PR to showcase his talent. 

Thanks for reading. 

2014 Predictions: NL East

The NL East had some trouble with competition this past year. The Braves ran away with the division, winning it by 10 games over the Nationals and another 12 games over the next closest competitor. It was also an injury-ridden division. Even the Braves were not immune from the bug; Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, Dan Uggla, and BJ Upton all had stints on the 15-day DL and Tim Hudson got his ankle shattered against the Mets in the middle of the summer. Despite their hard luck (it was not as hard as anyone else's), Fredi Gonzalez rode the successes of Chris Johnson, Freddie Freeman, and Andrelton Simmons into the playoffs. I expect them to do the exact same thing in 2014.

NL East

1. Atlanta 94-68
All of the pieces are in place. Now it is time to perform. Last year, a lot of people left their game in the warm weather in Spring Training a la BJ Upton only hitting .184 and Dan Uggla .179. Evan Gattis was a pleasant surprise, crushing 21 home runs in 105 games, and he will take over the full time catching position since Brian McCann has gone to the Yankees. Freddie Freeman, coming off of an offseason engagement to his girlfriend, will be in high spirits and repeat his .319 campaign and lead the league in hugs given.

The second base position is shaky as of right now: Uggla will be back, but youngsters Joey Terdoslavich and Taylor Pastornicky (spell check is screaming at me right now) will also make a case for the spot come Spring. We'll see what Gonzalez picks. The rotation is solid, with new pitchers Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd joining the squad. The newly signed Julio Teheran will continue to improve along side of young hurlers Mike Minor and Kris Medlen. Floyd and Beachy will not be 20 game winners, that's for sure, but they are good 4th and 5th pitchers. If they can get any type of lead, they'll be turning it over to the *new* best closer in the game, Craig Kimbrel. 

2. Washington 90-72
A lot of folks are picking the Nats to be a powerhouse and even go all the way this year. I have a few reservations about them, namely the new management. Matt Williams is a very capable manager, but it is his first year - Mike Matheny went 88-74 in his first year and then won the pennant with almost the exact same team. I see that happening with the Nats. The rotation is arguably the strongest in the NL between Strasburg, Gio, Zim, newly acquired Fister, and Detwiler.

Strasburg and Detwiler had some injury issues last season, so if they stay healthy then I think they will go far. On the offensive side of the ball, the Nats can rake. They were third in the NL in overall home runs (161), and if you take away Gio Gonzalez's one home run, they are first in the NL in non-pitcher home runs (160). Between Zimmerman, Werth, Harper, and sometimes Ian Desmond, these fellas score a lot of runs, but their team OBP was .313, only 8th in the league. If everyone's healthy, I expect to see them as a Wild Card and my guess at their record could be wildly wrong.

3. Philadelphia 75-87
The Phillies had a very disappointing year, ending ultimately with the termination of Charlie Manuel. The senior circuit will continue this year in the town of Brotherly Love: with signing Marlon Byrd (age 36) to two years, AJ  Burnett (age 37) to a one year deal, and Carlos Ruiz (age 35) to a three-year deal this offseason, they got good players but not any younger. Ryan Howard will be back from his season-ending injury, which is great, but again, he's no spring chicken and he strikes out a lot. 

The average age of the Phillies last year was 30.1 years old (28.5-year old 25-man roster). Again, high talent, but also high age. They'll be great for spurts, but ultimately, injuries and fatigue will catch up to them.

4. Miami 68-94
Last year's 100-loss team will improve slightly. They ended the season on a bright note, no-hitting the Tigers and winning on a walkoff wild pitch. They have a strong young core led by reigning ROY Jose Fernandez and defensive whiz Adeiny Hechavarria.

The Fish also had a tremendous offseason, signing Rafael Furcal, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Garrett Jones. Mike Redmond knows what he's doing down in Miami, and now that he has the players to back him up (at least more so than last year). Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick will get more reps and see their averages go up, not a lot, but enough. Right now, here's what I peg their starting lineup to look like: Furcal 2B, Yelich CF, Stanton RF, Jones 1B, Salty C, Ozuna LF, Polanco/Lucas 3B, Hech SS, Pitcher. Not bad at all - a lot of growth to be done. Jones will provide useful protection for Stanton, so his average will shoot back up to his 2012 All-Star campaign of .290. The rotation is decent, again, extremely young, featuring Fernandez, Turner, Eovaldi, and Alvarez. The average age of these four is exactly 22 years old. It won't be the Marlins year, but in four or five years, look out. 

5. New York 60-102
Unfortunately, the Mets took a step back this season and probably won't have much hope to compete this year. Missing Matt Harvey is a huge blow, and quasi-rookie Zach Wheeler will have to step up. He went 7-5 last year which is solid, but he'll have to throw a lot of innings this year, which I know Terry Collins won't like (because that's exactly what happened to Harvey). Now, anemic pitching staff aside, they are regaining Captain America (David Wright) and newly acquired Curtis Granderson.

I think Grandy is an awesome player, but his uppercut swing inside of the quite spacious Citi Field will result in a lot of long fly balls and warning track power. After playing in the little league Yankee Stadium for a few years, he's conditioned to getting under the ball more than he probably should. His defense will shine in the green pastures of Queens, but his average will suffer (again). Travis d'Arnaud, the young but injury-ridden catcher, will take the starting role now that John Buck has left New York. Ike Davis likely will lose his job to Josh Satin, therefore rounding out the infield with Daniel Murphy and Omar Quintanilla up the middle. I may be blowing their age out of proportion and underestimating Wright's ability to win games, but this year won't be pretty. 

Spring Break

With the recent bad news of Schilling's diagnosis and Kiner's passing, I think we are in order for a more optimistic post. This week a few friends and I finalized the plans for Spring Break this year: we're headed down to Lakeland to watch the Tigers play a handful of Spring Training games; 4 home, 1 away. We'll be seeing Tigers/Nationals three out of the five games, which is intriguing.

Before the 2013 season, MLB Network analysts (that word always looks like its spelled incorrectly, doesn't it? What a weird word) Tom Verducci and Larry Bowa picked the Nats to win it all, while Ken Rosenthal and Mitch Williams said the same for the Tigers (I can't let it go that Plesac picked the Blue Jays). Granted that was before the 2013 season began, but I feel that they both have put themselves in a position to face off in October of 2014. 

With the offseason trade of Doug Fister for Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol, and prospect Robbie Ray, which many say was a terrible trade for the Tigers, I can't wait to see Dougie in a Nats uniform. Red doesn't look as good as the old English D on that tall glass of water if you ask me, but I think he will succeed here. Most famous for his nasty 2-seam fastball, he does not allow a lot of home runs, only giving up 14 in 208 IP in 2013. Despite leading the league in hit batsmen last year, his HR/9 is phenomenal: the only time it was over 1 was his rookie year. But how much of that was due to his home park? His first three years were spent in Seattle at Safeco Field, one of the friendliest parks in the league to pitchers. Comerica Park in Detroit is the polar opposite. This past season, Comerica had a park factor of 1.139, 3rd in the league, meaning it was the 3rd friendliest park to hitters. Impressive work from Mr. Fister. Now that he's moving to the NL East, expect similar numbers - low home runs, high strike percentages, but also a lot of hits. Because Fister throws so many strikes, hitters are quick to jump on anything straight, hoping they won't see the sidewinding 2-seam. Last year, Fister's opponent BAbip was .333, allowing 229 hits, 3rd most in the league.

The addition of Matt Williams was a smart choice for the Nationals. Williams, who was around winning teams his whole player career including the champion Diamondbacks in 2001, knows what it takes to run a team, even though it is his first time. In an interview with ESPN, Williams shared that he would bring in old school baseball (slugging, defense), but also will bring in more sabermetrics to his position as well. Williams was an incredibly aggressive 3rd base coach for the Diamondbacks under Kirk Gibson, so I'm excited to see how that shows when we see them.  

The Nationals have a really young team, with an average age of 27.7. Their rotation is filthy; many call it the best in the league (I still think the Tigers has an edge). Flame throwing Stephen "China Doll" Strasburg, notoriously inconsistent Gio Gonzalez, silent NL wins leader Jordan Zimmermann, new Doug Fister, and a respectable back end in Ross Detwiler. Offensively, the Nats love to strikeout and hit the long ball. With a healthy Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman (who royally screwed my fantasy team last year by being hurt), their power numbers should go up just a little bit. In the....well, let's say 'rebuilding' NL East, the Nationals will be near the top. But not at the top. 

Fredi Gonzalez has the Braves running smoothly. Evan Gattis will be anchoring the field in a new role as starting catcher now that Brian McCann wanted some roughage and went to the Big Apple. Simmons, Freeman, and Heyward will continue to shine and be solid on both sides of the ball, and as we saw the greatest closer ever retire last year, the next best thing in Craig Kimbrel is right behind him. Even though they added Curtis Granderson, the Mets still will be below .500, especially with Matt Harvey missing year due to a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament. Captain America should be healthy the whole year, but the Mets still have more questions than answers, namely what is going on with Ike Davis and will EYJ get on base enough to steal?  The Phillies are getting Ryan Howard back as well as free agent pick up Marlon Byrd (two animals, one man), but are not getting any younger (except for their new manager Ryne Sandberg). Chooch, Chutley, and J-Roll are all entering their age 35 season but are expected to play 150+ games. Howard is 34, as is Cliff Lee, and Byrd is 36. Talent is high in some corners of the field, but there is a huge question mark at third base. The Marlins future is bright, especially with Rookie of the Year phenom Jose Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton. They had an awesome offseason, signing veteran leader and champion Rafael Furcal, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, slugger Garrett Jones, and an incredibly underrated outfielder Reed Johnson. All come from successful teams in 2013 and can offer great examples of leadership. Like the Nationals, the Marlins are a wicked young team, and studs like Adeiny Hechavarria, Christian Yelich (Baseball America's #15 prospect), and Marcell Ozuna (#75) can learn a lot from their new veterans. 

Sorry for the lengthy post, but sunshine and baseball gets me excited. I won't get into predictions just yet, but for now, expect the Braves to win the East. 

As always, thanks for reading. I'll leave you with this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0H9VthNLh8. Enjoy.

Happy birthday to Vlad Guerrero and Moon Mullen!