Thoughts on Stanton

As many of you already know, Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton was hit in the face by a pitch of a Michael Fiers fastball in the top of the 5th inning against the Brewers on Thursday. Stanton has been producing at an MVP caliber rate so far this year (see my post about the NL MVP race from last month), and that came to a grinding halt after this unfortunate turn of events. Stanton actually turned his body into it so much that it was called a strike, and pinch hitter Reed Johnson was hit on the hand the next pitch. The Marlins bench cleared, colorful examples of adult vocabulary were exchanged, but Michael Fiers did not hit Stanton on purpose. Here's why:

When you look at the big picture, the Marlins are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot. Even without last year's Rookie of the Year winner Jose Fernandez, the Marlins have fought valiantly to sit third in what has turned out to be a very weak NL East division. The Marlins, entering play today, are tied for third with the Mets, both 12 games back of the Nationals and a winning percentage of .486 (Miami has played 2 fewer games). While the Marlins have virtually nothing to lose being 6.5 games out of the second wild card, the Brewers are hanging on by a thread in their own playoff picture, 4 games back of St. Louis for first place in the NL Central and 1.5 games back of the second wild card spot. Keep in mind, Milwaukee was leading the division by 6.5 games to begin July and led by a game as August faded into September, so if they miss the playoffs, it would be a pretty big choke. They needed this game.

In this particular situation, Stanton was up with the bases loaded and two outs. Stanton is a .316 hitter with runners in scoring position this year - that's really good, but it gets even better: with two outs and runners in scoring position, his average jumps a healthy margin to .340 and a .620 slugging percentage. That said, Stanton was also only hitting .208 against Brewers pitching in 2014. Sure he's a great hitter in clutch situations, but there are two outs - beaning him would push a run across and keep the inning going for hit machine Casey McGehee, who is hitting .344 with two outs, .313 with runners in scoring position, and .295 with two outs and men in scoring position. You may avoid the game tying grand slam from Stanton, but then you have bases loaded again with a three run lead for McGehee, who has decent power to the alleys and could clear the bases, especially with Jeff Mathis (slow, but would score easily) on third, and speedsters Jordany Valdespin and Christian Yelich occupying the other two bags.

If the game situation isn't enough for you, just look at how Fiers was pitching this year. In 11 games, he is (now) 6-2 with a 1.84 ERA and a WHIP of .857. Those are great numbers, especially for a team that is struggling like the Brewers, whose offense virtually disappeared in the beginning of August on their way to a 9-game losing streak. They need good pitching while the offense regroups - why would Fiers put that in jeopardy?

Last but not least, just look at his reaction after Stanton falls down. 

"What have I done?"

It just wouldn't make sense for Fiers to bean Stanton intentionally.  The Brewers were up 4-0 and Fiers had Stanton on the ropes 0-2. Stanton has been known to be a free swinger, with a good slider or high cheese, he could swing right through it and the inning would be over. Fiers is a 29 year old veteran who knows better, and knows baseball well enough to go right for the head if you're aiming intentionally. You go for the back, like Cole Hamels did on Bryce Harper back when Harper was a rookie (kids, you didn't hear that from me). The Brewers needed that win.

While Stanton's season is likely over, so is the Marlins'. They were flirting with a playoff spot and like I said earlier, have nothing to lose. They already overcame most expectations of this season; I didn't think they'd be anywhere near .500, and when you take Fernandez away, I wasn't expecting them to get 65 wins. They have a shot at 80 wins this year, a huge improvement from last year and a sign to come that the Fish could be serious contenders in the future. 

Marlins manager Mike Redmond said in a postgame interview "we lost our MVP." In my mind, so did the NL. Stanton's 37 home runs, 94 walks, .555 slugging, .950 OPS, and 105 RBIs all lead the National League now that Troy Tulowitzki is sidelined for the remainder of 2014. Stanton's RBI total is first in the majors, tied with Angels outfielder Mike Trout. There is doubt in my mind that the Marlins success is directly proportional to Stanton's and that without him, they wouldn't even be in contention.

Kershaw has been lights out in LA this year, but if you take him off that team, I think they are still in the playoffs. Kershaw leads the league in wins, ERA, WHIP, etc. But look at his value to the Dodgers. The award would have been Stanton's but now that he is gone, I believe it is all Kershaw's. But I could be wrong.

Let's hope Stanton heals quickly and that he'll continue mashing next year. 

Thanks for reading. 

The Current NL MVP Race

I got a text from a close friend/Marlins fan this morning about my thoughts on the NL MVP race and lucky for him, I must have rapid fired at least 10 texts back about my thoughts.

At the beginning of the year, I picked Diamondbacks first basemen Paul Goldschmidt to win the MVP. Unfortunately, Goldy fell on a bit of bad luck recently, breaking his hand and being forced to spend the rest of the season on the DL. Goldschmidt was hitting an even .300, started for the NL All-Star team, and still is leading the majors in doubles despite being out of the lineup for the better part of a week. He would have been a compelling choice for most valuable player, but let's be honest, the award rarely goes to a player on a non-contender let alone a team that was the worst team in the league for the first half. The D'backs were in 5th in the NL West for every single day until June 28th and are now in 4th. Since his departure, Arizona is 3-6 (when I began writing), showing that he was a very valuable component to the success in the desert. 

The defending MVP Andrew McCutchen is also suffering from injury (a friend described his injury to me as if you're tearing the meat off the rib when eating a full slab of baby-backs), and is almost back to last season's form, hitting .311 and on pace for more steals, home runs, and RBIs. With this injury, he'll have to have a historic run when he comes back to get into the conversation. His numbers are good, but not MVP worthy as they sit. 

Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki started hot, stayed hot, and is still hot. As the NL starting shortstop for the All-Star Game, Tulo has been turning heads this season, leading the MLB in average, on-base, slugging, and OPS, which is becoming the most accurate representation of a hitter's productivity. But he has the Goldschmidt syndrome (or does Goldy have the Tulo syndrome?) where he plays for the worst team. Tulo's Rockies are in last place in the NL West and entering play yesterday, have the worst record in the majors and are 2-8 in their last 10 games. The Rockies aren't good because of Tulo, so I can't help but question his value. Not questioning his talent and production this year, but I am questioning his value. Now that he needs hip surgery and is out for the remainder of the year, we'll see if anyone can overcome his average and other offensive numbers. Between his team's performance and missing the final 40-45 games of the year, I don't think he'll be this year's winner. 

So here are our two finalists (at least for me): Giancarlo Stanton and Clayton Kershaw. If this were last year then I would say Stanton had a case of the Tulos or Goldys but the Marlins are 2 games below .500 and a game back of the Braves entering play yesterday. They are not completely out of the hunt but they aren't a playoff lock, either (can you imagine if Fernandez were still pitching?). However, a major part of the team's success is because of Stanton. Stanton is currently tied for first in the majors with 31 home runs (alone at the top in the NL by 4; the Cubs' Anthony Rizzo is 2nd with 27) and is 7th overall in RBIs, but again first in the NL with 82 (Dodgers' Adrian Gonzalez is 2nd with 80). With a .288 average, Stanton had turned a corner in terms of hitting for contact. Stanton is a career .270 hitter, and he only hit .249 last year (though he hit .290 in 2012). Combine that with his bombs for home runs (https://twitter.com/mlbgifs/status/498988723933945856) and you have a dynamic player who is offensive threat no matter what: with runners in scoring position and 2 outs, he is batting .297. When the Marlins are trailing, he is batting .306. He's also batting .288 with 9 home runs against divisional opponents (when it matters). Having Jose out for the year was a debilitating blow - can you imagine if Stanton were out too? 

Now it has already been proven that Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw is not a human and he may in fact not even be from this galaxy. He is that good. As I write this, he is 14-2 with a 1.78 ERA, a .85 WHIP, 5 complete games, 2 shutouts (including a no-hitter), a 8.58 strikeout to walk ratio and 10.8 strikeouts per 9 (stats in bold lead the NL). He leads the NL (and the MLB in a few) in almost every major stat except for strikeouts, but that's not his type of pitching. He's a shoo-in for the Cy Young Award, but what about MVP?

We haven't seen a pitcher win an MVP award since Justin Verlander in 2011, when he went 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA, 4 complete games (2 shutouts), 250 K's, and a .920 WHIP. Kershaw has him beaten in nearly every stat except for strikeouts, but again, that's not Kershaw's game. 

Let's look at some splits to show how dominant he is: he gets better and better as the game goes on. In innings 1-3, Kershaw has a 2.59 ERA; 4-6 1.36; and 7-9 an ERA of .98. As the game goes on, he only gets better and better. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen is an electric closer, but unlike Kershaw, he's only human. He's pitched in 52 games this year, which is a lot for a reliever (9 behind the MLB leader). Regardless of Jansen's efficiency, ERA, saves, whatever, the ability for Kershaw to be that dominant late in games is so helpful to the Dodgers that it will give the bullpen a rest and other starters a leg to stand on. 

Kershaw is also 7-1 (2.09 ERA) against opponents in the NL West, a huge advantage for the Dodgers on strengthening their divisional lead. In addition, he has a 1.64 ERA on 4 days rest - again, incredibly valuable for the pitching staff and come playoff time. 

If I were making the choice, I would pick Kershaw. He has been that good, and that valuable to his team - and the league in terms of bringing PR to showcase his talent. 

Thanks for reading.