Oakland Now Serves Country Breakfast

As the wintery offseason wears on and on and gigantic contracts are being signed, we have another contract to discuss. No, it is not Giancarlo Stanoton's $325 million mega signing, or Jason Heyward's trade to the a Cardinals, but a rather surprising one coming from the AL champions. 

The story broke Tuesday night that Billy Butler, warmly known as "Country Breakfast", had signed a 3 year, $30 million contract with the Oakland Athletics.

I'm having trouble picturing him in green and yellow. Courtesy of Baseball Reference.

 Butler, 28, had finished his 8th season with the Royals, hitting .271 (career low) with 9 home runs (career low since his rookie year of 8) and 66 RBIs. This is an intriguing signing to say the least, so let's look at it from a variety of angles: 1) how it affects the Royals, 2) how it affects Butler, and 3) how it affects the A's moving forward. Shall we?

How It Affects the Royals
Coming from my perspective, whenever I watched Billy Butler play, he absolutely raked. Butler's career stats against his AL Central opponents are rather inflated compared to his future home in sunny Oakland: against AL Central opponents, Butler hit .301 in 534 career games while only hitting .283 in 200 career games against AL West opponents. There are a couple of factors that could explain this nearly 30 point increase in batting average:

• Travel: when the Royals went to anywhere in the AL Central, it was either in the same time zone or only one hour ahead, versus a trip out west which is one or two hours behind and a 2,000 mile journey to Seattle (I picked the longest trip to skew the data in my favor, sue me) - that could put a hitch in your swing.
• Experience: Butler has hit well against the Central's best pitching, including a .405 average against Justin Verlander and a .357 average against Chris Sale, but that's because he's faced them so much more than most any other pitcher. Like any good hitter, he's adjusted to what they've thrown and made them pay, but will he do the same out west? In his career, Butler is hitting .211 against CJ Wilson and .217 against Felix Hernandez. We'll be getting more exposure to watching him face the West aces and see if his improvement is real talent or just has a knack for ruining the Central's day. 

How does this affect the Royals? To put it simply, without Butler, I think it will be much harder for them to be as competitive as they were this year. The Royals finished a game behind the Tigers in the Central and still snagged a Wild Card spot, but they didn't play all that well against the Central; 39-37 overall including 6-13 against Detroit and 9-10 against Cleveland. They took care of business against Chicago (13-6) and Minnesota (11-8) and they should have, considering they were AL Champs and the White Sox and Twins trudged below .500 most of the year. While the Royals as a team struggled to beat the better Central teams consistently, Butler had no trouble, hitting .298 with 2 home runs against Tigers pitching and .279 with another 2 home runs against Indians pitching (.289 against all AL Central pitching). Keep in mind: Butler only hit .271 this year with 9 home runs.

So you're telling me he hit 18 points higher in the Central, 27 points higher against the division winner, and almost half his home runs came against the only other teams above .500 in that division? If the Royals want to take the division crown in 2015 rather than settle for a Wild Card spot again, they will need someone to step up like Butler did against the AL Central. 

As for the Royals lineup in general, Butler, primarily their cleanup hitter, served as excellent protection to Hosmer and Cain or whoever was batting 3rd that day depending on the pitcher. In 2014, he hit cleanup in 78 games, 3rd in 27 games, 6th in 23 games, 5th in 11 games, and 7th and 9th a few random times as a PH. Now, the Royals finished at 89-73 last year, a winning percentage of .549 and good enough for the 2nd Wild Card spot. When Butler appeared in games (not necessarily started, but had an AB or an inning in the field), the Royals were 85-66, which was a better winning percentage of .563. When Butler did not play, the Royals were 4-7. I know that's not a lot to pick from, but most of the games he missed were in September, and notably 2 in the same series at Detroit and another against Detroit at home which allowed the Tigers to widen their division margin. See what I mean how he's useful to the team? 

Here's their lineup moving forward (assuming Aoki does not re-sign with the team)

1) Dyson, CF

2) Infante, 2B 

3) Cain, RF

4) Hosmer, 1B

5) Perez, C

6) Gordon, LF

7) DH

8) Moustakas, 3B (hopefully he can repeat his postseason power surge)

9) Escobar, SS

So far the Royals have been quiet on the DH market. I think Michael Morse would fit in really well in Kansas City, he's cheap and has a huge swing for a huge park, but I also read a post today from a blog called Pine Tar Press saying Yasmany Tomas, the Cuban defector, would be a good fit for Kansas City. While I certainly agree with that statement in that Tomas could hit well in such a spacious field and give fellow Cuban Jose Abreu a run for his AL Central and ROY money, I don' think the Royals are the type of team to go sign a big free agent like that. After all, the only few players that they didn't grow themselves on the farm were Infante and Escobar. They don't rely on buying talent. They make it.

Long story short, I think the Royals will still be competitive, but by judging how strong Butler really was when it mattered, that's too big of a loss for the Royals to make up unless they do something huge at the Winter Meetings in a few weeks. 

How It Affects Butler

It will be hard parting with his first team, that is for sure. But he's in for a huge payday by moving out to Oakland; Butler made $8 million last year for the Royals and now he'll make $10 million - even after having a career low year. 

Jon and I were chatting about the A's signing Butler and how this came as a little bit of a shock for how much money he's getting despite having an uncharacteristically unproductive season. He said "guess this player and how much money they will make next year" and gave me the stat line of .271/.323/.379, 9 home runs, 66 RBIs. I first guessed Jacoby Ellsbury, was wrong, then guessed Kyle Seager, again wrong, and he told me Billy Butler and that he was going to make $10 million. To put that in perspective, that's working 1,226,994 hours at minimum wage, or 30,674 work weeks, which is 589 YEARS. But here's the shocking part: it wasn't just a low year, he's been plummeting the last 3 years. Check it out:

• stat: 2012/2013/2014
• average: .313/.289/.271
• slugging: .510/.412/.379
• on-base plus slugging: .882/.787/.702
• home runs: 29/15/9
• RBI: 107/82/66
• total bases: 313/240/208
• hits: 192/168/149

Granted, he played 11 fewer games in 2014 than 2013 but if he can hit 18 points higher, 6 home runs, 16 RBIs and 20 hits in 11 games, then he deserves the $10 million. 

Aside from the payday, I think the O.co Coliseum will fit his swing very well. Butler is a powerful hitter, but does not have a home run swing. 

.gif courtesy of MLB.com.

He swings downward on the ball, which makes him a great low ball hitter (as seen here) but also means he won't hit as many towering fly balls as Giancarlo Stanton, for example, who has a rather uppercut swing. 

See what I mean? Stanton aims to hit home runs (and holy cow does he) while Butler is a much more line drive type hitter, hence why he has good doubles numbers and only decent home runs numbers (his doubles were the only stat not to decrease from 2012-2014 - in fact, they increased). Here's a very well analyzed FanGraphs article proving my point. O.co Coliseum is a big park, but it can play tricks on you.  

See what I mean? Courtesy of Oaklandathletics.com

Given the massive foul territory and the centerfield grandstand that shoots into the sky, the field looks much bigger than it actually is, and it is actually smaller than Kauffman stadium (10 feet shorter to centerfield). Ample room for Butler to keep hitting doubles and hopefully get those RBI's back up.

How It Affects the A's

Billy Beane does it again.

The FanGraphs article I referenced earlier said that the A's have never had 3 $10million players on the roster at the same time under Beane until now. Butler is a great fit in terms of his swing matching, but the lineup doesn't really get a lot of help. Oakland's batting ranked 12th in the AL last year, hitting only .244 but they were third in the AL in runs scored. I will never understand how they grow to be such good situational hitters, but the fact of the matter is, Billy Butler is just like the rest of the A's: good power, good situational hitting, low average. But that's the Billy Beane way, so it makes it such a beautiful signing (I'm also just now learning of the Billy Beane Billy Butler alliteration and I love it). Here's what their lineup looks like:

1) Crisp, CF

2) Donaldson, 3B

3) Gomes, LF

4) Butler, DH

5) Moss, 1B

6) Reddick, RF

7) Norris, C

8) Lowrie, SS

9) Sogard, 2B

Really not a bad lineup. Serious home run threat and great timely hitting. Again, its the Billy Beane way. 

Butler? His OBP isn't bad, but its certainly better than last year's DH in Alberto Callaspo. 

To bring it all back around, I think the A's will be better off than last year, the Royals will be slightly worse unless they can sign someone big, and Butler is happily driving to the bank in essentially whatever vehicle he chooses. 

Thanks for reading. 

Grading My Predictions (ew)

Top of the morning to you all out there. Between watching way too much of the World Cup and working the Star Wars Night at Fifth Third last night, it slipped past me that the Major League season is exactly half way done. As I write this through the tears that another season is halfway in the books, I thought it would be proper to go back to grade my predictions and award winners this far - and hope that I won't lose all credibility whatsoever.

Here's how it will work: for each division, I will list the records I predicted, the current standings, a grade of my prediction, and a quick rundown of how each team has been playing. Here we go!

AL East:

My guess: 

1) Boston 100-62

2) Tampa Bay 93-69

3) New York 91-71

4) Baltimore 82-80

5) Toronto 72-90

Current standings:

1) Toronto 45-38

2) Baltimore 42-38

3) New York 41-38

4) Boston 37-44

5) Tampa Bay 34-49

Grade: F

Basically flip flop the standings and I'd be right. Behind Buehrle's 10 wins and Encarnacion's crazy power numbers, the Jays are flying right past my prediction. The Orioles have had similar success with Nelson Cruz's power outburst and production from Crush Davis and Adam Jones. The Yankees will probably finish around .500, not 20 games above like I predicted. Injury issues with Beltran and a lack of production from McCann overshadow Tanaka's glowing start. Boston has had injury problems as well with Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino and its hurt. Brock Holt has been a bright replacement but Jackie Bradley Jr. is a big step behind where Jacoby Ellsbury was last year in center. The Rays just can't produce. Though David Price leads the league in strikeouts, the Rays simply can't hit - former ROYs Evan Longoria and Wil Myers are hitting .264 and .227, respectively. James Loney is the team's best hitter at .280 and they are 11th in the AL in team average and home runs. Missing Matt Moore hurts a lot as the Rays starters have the worst win-loss percentage in the AL, despite a team ERA of 3.87. Grant Balfour has been grossly underwhelming with only 10 saves and a bloated ERA of 5.52. The Rays need to turn it around fast.

AL Central:

My predictions: 

1) Detroit 95-67

2) Cleveland 93-69

3) Kansas City 86-76

4) Chicago 71-91

5) Minnesota 69-93

Current standings: 

1) Detroit 44-33

2) Kansas City 41-39

3) Cleveland 39-41

4) Chicago 38-44

5) Minnesota 36-43

My grade: B-

In terms of standings, I wasn't that far off except for switching the Indians and Royals. In terms of records, I overprojected for the top and underprojected the bottom. The Tigers had their annual early season slump, losing 16 of 22 games but have slowly clawed their way back to the top of the the weakest division in the AL behind strong starting pitching and the Martinezes (Victor and JD) just mashing (Victor: .323, 20 home runs, JD: .311, 9 home runs, AL player of the week). Eugenio Suarez has been a pleasant surprise at shortstop filling in for the injured Jose Iglesias, hitting .300 with 3 home runs in 21 games. The Royals are incredibly streaky, winning 10 in a row and then losing 4. Pitching is solid, but their big names need to start hitting - Hosmer (.249), Infante (.244) and Moustakas (.178, also the coolest name in baseball) need to step up for a postseason run. Cleveland is the same story. Cory Kluber and Josh Tomlin have picked up the slack for a quiet Justin Masterson and now Oriole Ubaldo Jimenez, but the team's hitting is weak. Except for Brantley (.321) and Chisenhall (.350), the big names are again coming up short. Swisher (.195), Santana (.209) and Kipnis (.254) need to get hot for the team to make a run. Chicago has had the opposite problem; they mash the ball (scoring 354 runs, 6th in AL) but have allowed the most runs in the AL (389). Alexei Ramirez has found his stroke, hitting .295 and rookie Jose Abreu has lived up to his power hype, slugging .631 and is tied for first in the MLB with 25 dingers is 4th in RBI with 63. The Twins are proving to play spoiler behind big seasons from Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, and starting pitcher Phil Hughes. Joe Mauer's uncharacteristically low .271 average will perk up with Kendrys Morales to protect him and this team could play .500 ball down the stretch when Plouffe comes off the DL.

AL West

My predictions: 

1) Oakland 92-70

2) Texas 90-72

3) LA 81-81

4) Seattle 74-88

5) Houston 57-108

Current standings:

1) Oakland 50-30

2) LA 45-34

3) Seattle 43-38

4) Texas 37-43

5) Houston 35-47

Grade: C-

Well, I got Oakland right. Scott Kazmir (9-3, 2.66) has provided a surprising amount of stability for the starting rotation, allowing Sonny Gray (7-3, 3.20) and Jesse Chavez (6-4, 2.94) to have great seasons. An offensive anomaly, the A's rank 8th in team average (.254) but first in runs (414) - they love the long ball and situational hitting, I suppose. The Angels have perked up considering Pujols is back to Pujols and Trout is hitting for more power despite stealing fewer bases and striking out more. CJ Cron, Colin Cowgill, and Hank Conger are great role playing backups that give Scioscia breathing room if someone gets hurt. With a strong rotation of 3 pitchers boasting 8 wins and a team ERA of 3.87, the Angels will have to hope for the Wild Card given how Oakland is playing. As I predicted, Cano is hitting for a very good average (.316) but little power (4 home runs), but is providing good leadership as Kyle Seager has come out of his shell a little bit. King Felix is King Felix and surprisingly Chris Young is their 2nd best starter (7-4, 3.15); Fernando Rodney is 6th in MLB with 22 saves but is also Fernando Rodney with a WHIP of 1.27. Texas: injuries. Derek Holland, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland, Matt Harrison, Tanner Scheppers, Alexi Ogando, Robbie Ross, and Martin Perez have all served or are serving time on the DL. In Beltre we trust (.333, .378, .512). Houston is shocking, considering Jose Altuve is having the best season for any second basemen so far this year (.343, 113 hits, 34 steals). George Springer has also been a bright spot from the minors, showing the farm system is fruitful - Springer leads the team with 15 home runs and 40 RBI in 63 games.

I'll do the National League tomorrow - I don't want to wear you all out (okay, I lied, I'm actually just headed out to go golfing on my day off).

Thanks for reading! 

2014 Predictions: AL West

This is a really tough division to pick. A lot of teams made a lot of of changes this year, but I still think it will be a two horse race between the A's and Rangers. Without further adieu:

AL West

1. Oakland 92-70
Bob Melvin's green and yellow elephants will be, once again, in the playoffs (will we see a third straight A's/Tigers ALDS?). Last year was a very solid year for the A's, namely behind the offensive production of Josh Donaldson (.301/29/93, 4th in MVP voting). Despite their winning record, Donaldson was actually the only player to hit over .300 (other than Kurt Suzuki who played in 15 games), but they came in third in the AL in runs and home runs, so the long ball was essential to them last year. This year will be mostly the same: GM whiz kid Billy Beane did not make any major free agent pick ups, so Melvin will be putting out nearly the same lineup. Reddick and Crisp, both excellent defensive outfielders, had down years, hitting .226 and .261 respectively. Reddick was bothered with a wrist injury, resulting in a lack of hitting to the power alleys and simply a lack of playing time. Crisp's average was down but his on base percentage was right on par with the rest of his career, though his stolen bases were far down compared to his last few years in Oakland. The rotation lost 18-6 ageless wonder Bartolo Colon, but other than him, the oldest starter last year was Tommy Milone at age 26, so the future is very bright on the bump. Right now their rotation is looking like Griffin, Parker, Gray, Milone, and Straily. Very young, but a lot of potential. Last year they won 96 games, I think that's possible but not all that probable given the Mariners revamping of their roster.

2. Texas 90-72
The Rangers lost some key players in this offseason: AJ Pierzynski, Joe Nathan, Ian Kinsler, and Nelson Cruz. Cruz was gone most of last season and they did just fine, but there's no denying his big bat will be missed. That said, manager Ron Washington was also given a lot to work with this offseason, signing Mitch Moreland and JP Arencibia to deals, as well as outfielder Shin Soo Choo to a 7-year deal and Prince Fielder from the Tigers. There is a little bit of pressure on Fielder because of all the talk of moving to a more hitter-friendly ballpark. Last year, Comerica had a park factor of 108 and Arlington had a 102 which means that Comerica was even more friendly to hitters, but maybe the change in the atmosphere will be good for him. Andrus and Beltre will be excellent as usual, but youngster Jurickson Profar will be tried at second base. I think he'll do fine as long as he doesn't hit in the 2 slot. Choo was a hotly contested free agent, sought after by a number of teams for his crazy .423 OBP (granted, he played in a matchbox in GABP). He'll most likely play center and young stud Leonys Martin will take over in right for Cruz. The Rangers' rotation is top heavy, with Darvish (Cy Young candidate) and Derek Holland at the top. Matt Garza was a nice addition last year but he has moved on to Milwaukee, so Alexi Ogando will take over and continue the nice season he had in 2011 (13-8, 3.51 ERA). The key to the Rangers season, and this is bold, I know, is Neftali Feliz. The former ROY has oscillated back and forth from starter to closer and its taken a toll on his body, causing some lingering biceps issues last year. With Nathan gone, the closing role should be his and if he stays healthy, the Rangers could do some damage.

3. Los Angeles 81-81
Scioscia is an awesome manager. Last season, he had a lot of things working against him in terms of injuries (Pujols and Bourjos) and completely underperformance (Joe Blanton going 2-14). Trout will be Trout and likely go .325/.430/.560 (wow) and rub off on JB Shuck on both sides of the ball. Hamilton is a wild card, his first year in LA was not pretty, and I think he'll improve but not much. We won't see 2010's .359 average, but we won't see 2013's .250 average, either. My prediction is somewhere around .270 but with a lot of fly balls and strikeouts. Pujols will be heathy (hopefully), adding some protection, and the offseason pickup of David Freese, likely 5-hitter, will add even more. Raul Ibanez is a good addition, likely as a DH for an injection of power every once in a while. He won't put up an MVP campaign, but will have a respectable year for a 42-year old. Kendrick is a highly underrated second baseman, and I expect him to hit .310 this year. Similar to the Mariners, they are offensively challenged when it comes to catchers; between Hank Conger and Chris Ianetta, they produced 18 home runs and 60 RBIs. Signing veteran Yorvit Torrealba will aid their growth in hitting. CJ Wilson will again anchor the aging rotation, which is their weakest link. Past he and Weaver, it's a crapshoot. Ernesto Frieri was pretty shaky last year, going 2-4 with 1.4 home runs per nine. Not good. If the Angels want to win this year they will have to hit, hit, and hit some more. Last year, their team average of .264 was 3rd in the AL and their 733 runs scored was 6th.

4. Seattle 74-88
Oh boy. Jack Z did some work this offseason. With a solid core of King Felix, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Justin Smoak, the Mariners overloaded their artillery with offense by signing Robinson Cano, Corey Hart, and Logan Morrison.

By adding closer Fernando Rodney, last year's shaky closer Tom Wilhemsen will be off the hook, though I don't think Seattle fans know exactly Rodney's style (walk two people, throw a wild pitch then strike out the side). Young catcher Mike Zunino will be the everyday catcher so maybe his .214 average will sneak above .250. Hard to believe last year at .214 he was Seattle's best offensive catcher. Kendrys Morales is not coming back and Justin Smoak will most likely once again barely hit .230. Signing Hart and Cano is great, but the guys around them are not there yet. They are either too young or just have too many bugs in their swing to be successful. I also don't think Cano will have as many home runs at Safeco, but he will have more doubles. Last year he hit .313/.383/.516 with 27 home runs and 107 RBIs. In a pitcher's park like Safeco, I'm guessing he'll have a .298/.365/.478 with 24 home runs and 99 RBIs, as well as a vicious chorus of boos when he goes back to the Bronx. Also, let me say I think the Mariners settled big time with hiring Lloyd McClendon. In 4.5 years managing the Pirates, he was 110 games below .500. He is not a good manager and I think they were just impatient in signing someone to man the helm. All in all, a few big names will not bring a championship. I think they'll bring a winning season (eventually) but aside from their bright stars, the future is kind of dim. 

5. Houston 57-105
The Astros will probably be in the basement for a few more years. Their farm system is wicked, with Mark Appel, Carlos Correa, and Jonathan Singleton, but these guys can't even drink a beer yet (well Correa can't), so they probably won't be playing professionally any time soon. As far as this year goes, Bo Porter will do what he can with what he's given. He's not a bad manager, he just has players that can't compete. Jason Castro, Jose Altuve, and acquisition Dexter Fowler are bright spots, but when your best pitcher is 4-12 with a 4.59 ERA, good things won't happen. Seeing how Fowler will adapt to the hill in center will be interesting. He's played there a few times before, when the Astros were in NL, but other than that, I'm sure he's rarely been to the Juice Box (Minute Maid Park).