Worst Rookie of the Year?

In light of my recent posts and my apparent inability to predict any award winners or division winners, my curiosity took me on a journey through past award winners, and it got me thinking: who is the worst Rookie of the Year? This question is not asking who had the worst stats and still won the award, this question is asking who went on to have the most disappointing career after winning such a prestigious award. Winning the Rookie of the Year not only means you are the best new player (not all rookies are new entirely, e.g. any of the winners coming from Japan), but it also means you are expected to have an illustrious career (at least it does to me). Since the award's inception in 1947, only 6 AL players and 8 NL players have been inducted into the Hall of Fame, so why do I put so much useless pressure on the winners to perform later in their career? That's a question not for this blog.

Anyway, my original question: what Rookie of the Year winner had the worst career? I'll go by league and give a 3rd, 2nd, and 1st place finishing. 

AL, 3rd Place: Pat Listach, Milwaukee (they were AL before realignment)

Listach was a hot shortstop prospect for the Brewers. Coming Arizona State, an institution that has produced Dustin Pedroia, Barry Bonds, and Phil Mickelson, it is a shock that Listach crashed and burned so quickly. His first year, 1992,  boasted a .290 average, a .354 OBP, and 54 stolen bases in 149 games, good for him! Afterwards, Listach suffered from nasty injuries like a broken foot and a number of knee problems, which resulted in his playing time dwindle and productivity disappear. In '93, he only appeared in 98 games, and only 16 games in '94. He would never play a whole season again. It wasn't so much that Listach was a bad player, because when he wasn't injured, he was quite successful (hit .296 in those 16 games), it was that he was more unlucky than anything else. He now coaches third base for the Astros.

AL 2nd place: Bob Hamelin, Kansas City

The year following Listach's rookie campaign saw another bright hitter come to Kansas City in Bob Hamelin. Hamelin, a UCLA draft pick, was a first basemen who only hit .224 in his first 49 at-bats in 1991 and then hit .282 in his official rookie year. Like Listach, Hamelin only played 6 years, but he did not suffer from injuries - he just couldn't hit. In the encore of his ROY season, Hamelin only hit .168. He perked up a bit when he went to Detroit, hitting .270 in 110 games, and then disappeared again in Milwaukee, only hitting .219 in 109 games. Sorry Bob. 

The American League Worst Rookie of the Year: Angel Berroa, Kansas City

Berroa, a native of the Dominican Republic, debuted with Kansas City in 2001 at the age of 23. He only appeared in 15 games, gathering 16 hits in 53 at-bats. Because the MLB rookie qualifications require a minimum of 75 at-bats, he was not technically a rookie until two years later in 2003 (he hit .227 in exactly 75 at-bats in 2002). In '03 (the same year my Tigers lost 119 games), Berroa began a lukewarm string of production from shortstop for the next 4 years with the Royals. He won the ROY hitting .287 with 17 home runs and 92 runs scored in 158 games for the Royals. For the rest of his career, his average would decrease. He hit .262 in 2004, .270 in 2005, and kept dipping and dipping until he hit .143 with the Yankees and Mets in 2009. Berroa only played 9 years, was never selected to an All-Star Game, and struck out 4 times for every walk he took. Not pretty. From 2006 to the end of his career, he only hit .163. Angel will call me Satan, but he is the worst AL Rookie of the Year.

I'll do the NL tomorrow, I am quite exhausted. And I also feel bad highlighting these guys simply because they didn't pan out - I mean no harm, I was just interested in how winning such a great award would pressurize a young career. I think we've been spoiled the last few years considering the AL award winners have been Trout, Verlander, Pedroia, Evan Longoria, etc...guys that have not only produced their first year but have continued to produce with All-Star Games, MVPs, and World Series rings. The NL should be interesting tomorrow. Thanks for reading. 

 

Grading My Predictions (ew)

Top of the morning to you all out there. Between watching way too much of the World Cup and working the Star Wars Night at Fifth Third last night, it slipped past me that the Major League season is exactly half way done. As I write this through the tears that another season is halfway in the books, I thought it would be proper to go back to grade my predictions and award winners this far - and hope that I won't lose all credibility whatsoever.

Here's how it will work: for each division, I will list the records I predicted, the current standings, a grade of my prediction, and a quick rundown of how each team has been playing. Here we go!

AL East:

My guess: 

1) Boston 100-62

2) Tampa Bay 93-69

3) New York 91-71

4) Baltimore 82-80

5) Toronto 72-90

Current standings:

1) Toronto 45-38

2) Baltimore 42-38

3) New York 41-38

4) Boston 37-44

5) Tampa Bay 34-49

Grade: F

Basically flip flop the standings and I'd be right. Behind Buehrle's 10 wins and Encarnacion's crazy power numbers, the Jays are flying right past my prediction. The Orioles have had similar success with Nelson Cruz's power outburst and production from Crush Davis and Adam Jones. The Yankees will probably finish around .500, not 20 games above like I predicted. Injury issues with Beltran and a lack of production from McCann overshadow Tanaka's glowing start. Boston has had injury problems as well with Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino and its hurt. Brock Holt has been a bright replacement but Jackie Bradley Jr. is a big step behind where Jacoby Ellsbury was last year in center. The Rays just can't produce. Though David Price leads the league in strikeouts, the Rays simply can't hit - former ROYs Evan Longoria and Wil Myers are hitting .264 and .227, respectively. James Loney is the team's best hitter at .280 and they are 11th in the AL in team average and home runs. Missing Matt Moore hurts a lot as the Rays starters have the worst win-loss percentage in the AL, despite a team ERA of 3.87. Grant Balfour has been grossly underwhelming with only 10 saves and a bloated ERA of 5.52. The Rays need to turn it around fast.

AL Central:

My predictions: 

1) Detroit 95-67

2) Cleveland 93-69

3) Kansas City 86-76

4) Chicago 71-91

5) Minnesota 69-93

Current standings: 

1) Detroit 44-33

2) Kansas City 41-39

3) Cleveland 39-41

4) Chicago 38-44

5) Minnesota 36-43

My grade: B-

In terms of standings, I wasn't that far off except for switching the Indians and Royals. In terms of records, I overprojected for the top and underprojected the bottom. The Tigers had their annual early season slump, losing 16 of 22 games but have slowly clawed their way back to the top of the the weakest division in the AL behind strong starting pitching and the Martinezes (Victor and JD) just mashing (Victor: .323, 20 home runs, JD: .311, 9 home runs, AL player of the week). Eugenio Suarez has been a pleasant surprise at shortstop filling in for the injured Jose Iglesias, hitting .300 with 3 home runs in 21 games. The Royals are incredibly streaky, winning 10 in a row and then losing 4. Pitching is solid, but their big names need to start hitting - Hosmer (.249), Infante (.244) and Moustakas (.178, also the coolest name in baseball) need to step up for a postseason run. Cleveland is the same story. Cory Kluber and Josh Tomlin have picked up the slack for a quiet Justin Masterson and now Oriole Ubaldo Jimenez, but the team's hitting is weak. Except for Brantley (.321) and Chisenhall (.350), the big names are again coming up short. Swisher (.195), Santana (.209) and Kipnis (.254) need to get hot for the team to make a run. Chicago has had the opposite problem; they mash the ball (scoring 354 runs, 6th in AL) but have allowed the most runs in the AL (389). Alexei Ramirez has found his stroke, hitting .295 and rookie Jose Abreu has lived up to his power hype, slugging .631 and is tied for first in the MLB with 25 dingers is 4th in RBI with 63. The Twins are proving to play spoiler behind big seasons from Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, and starting pitcher Phil Hughes. Joe Mauer's uncharacteristically low .271 average will perk up with Kendrys Morales to protect him and this team could play .500 ball down the stretch when Plouffe comes off the DL.

AL West

My predictions: 

1) Oakland 92-70

2) Texas 90-72

3) LA 81-81

4) Seattle 74-88

5) Houston 57-108

Current standings:

1) Oakland 50-30

2) LA 45-34

3) Seattle 43-38

4) Texas 37-43

5) Houston 35-47

Grade: C-

Well, I got Oakland right. Scott Kazmir (9-3, 2.66) has provided a surprising amount of stability for the starting rotation, allowing Sonny Gray (7-3, 3.20) and Jesse Chavez (6-4, 2.94) to have great seasons. An offensive anomaly, the A's rank 8th in team average (.254) but first in runs (414) - they love the long ball and situational hitting, I suppose. The Angels have perked up considering Pujols is back to Pujols and Trout is hitting for more power despite stealing fewer bases and striking out more. CJ Cron, Colin Cowgill, and Hank Conger are great role playing backups that give Scioscia breathing room if someone gets hurt. With a strong rotation of 3 pitchers boasting 8 wins and a team ERA of 3.87, the Angels will have to hope for the Wild Card given how Oakland is playing. As I predicted, Cano is hitting for a very good average (.316) but little power (4 home runs), but is providing good leadership as Kyle Seager has come out of his shell a little bit. King Felix is King Felix and surprisingly Chris Young is their 2nd best starter (7-4, 3.15); Fernando Rodney is 6th in MLB with 22 saves but is also Fernando Rodney with a WHIP of 1.27. Texas: injuries. Derek Holland, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland, Matt Harrison, Tanner Scheppers, Alexi Ogando, Robbie Ross, and Martin Perez have all served or are serving time on the DL. In Beltre we trust (.333, .378, .512). Houston is shocking, considering Jose Altuve is having the best season for any second basemen so far this year (.343, 113 hits, 34 steals). George Springer has also been a bright spot from the minors, showing the farm system is fruitful - Springer leads the team with 15 home runs and 40 RBI in 63 games.

I'll do the National League tomorrow - I don't want to wear you all out (okay, I lied, I'm actually just headed out to go golfing on my day off).

Thanks for reading!