Grading My Predictions, Pt. II

Now that we all know that I am completely incapable of seeing six months into the future (at least for baseball - six months from now, I predict it will be December), it is time for even further self-deprecation and to look at my NL grades. Here we go. Ugh.

NL East:
My prediction:
1) Atlanta 94-68
2) Washington 90-72
3) Philadelphia 75-87
4) Miami 68-94
5) New York 60-102

Current standings: 
1) Atlanta 44-38
2) Washington 43-38
3) Miami 39-43
4) New York 37-45
5) Philadelphia 36-46

Grade: B

So far, not bad. This division is much closer than most anyone expected, and other than the Phillies being in the bottom, I was just about there. With the losses of Gavin Floyd, Brandon Beachy, and Kris Medlen to injury and the ageless wonder Tim Hudson to the Giants, Atlanta's pitching was in question and Aaron Harang and Julio Teheran have stepped up to fill the gaps, enough to get the ball to Kimbrel so he can be Kimbrel (see my post: Release the Kimbrel). Offensively, no one is having a career year though everyone is producing just about at where they were expected to (Gattis, Freeman, and J. Upton all hitting well). The Nationals, even without Bryce Harper, have continued to compete behind big years from Adam "Back from the Dead" Laroche (.308, 11 HR) and Anthony Rendon (.282, 12 HR). Doug Fister (6-2, 2.83) has proved to be a great acquisition; the team ERA is first in the NL though they just can't hit enough for wins. How about the Marlins? Minus last year's ROY Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez and Nate Eovaldi have stepped up to fill that gap as well as superb team defense from Hechavarria and Ozuna. Stanton (.316, 21 HR, 60 RBI) has been hitting moonshot after moonshot, which is why the Marlins are 3rd in the NL in runs. The Mets have been led by Bartolo Colon's strong pitching with Matt Harvey absent and Zack Wheeler still growing into his role as a starter. The offense is quiet night after night; their .238 team average is 13th in the NL. Curtis Granderson is having another low-average, high strikeout season (as I predicted given the capacity of Citi Field; surprisingly, Daniel Murphy is the Mets' leading hitter. I guessed that the Phillies age was going to be a liability, but not to this extent; their .240 average is 12th in the NL and are 11th in runs with 313. Mike Buchanan is their only starting pitcher who has a record above .500, and he's only 4-3. Cliff Lee is 4-4, Cole Hamels 2-4, and AJ Burnett 5-7. Ben Franklin could come back and pitch, that's always an option.

NL Central
My prediction:
1) St. Louis 102-60
2) Cincinnati 94-68
3) Pittsburgh 93-69
4) Chicago 69-93
5) Milwaukee 65-97

Current standings:
1) Milwaukee 51-33
2) Cincinnati 43-38
3) St. Louis 44-39
4) Pittsburgh 42-40
5) Chicago 34-46

Grade: Something lower than failing
Well, I am a moron. I predicted MIlwaukee to have 65 wins this whole season and they'll get it before the end of July. The Brewers offense is hard to stop; they are 2nd in the NL in runs, hits, average, and home runs; 5 starters have 10+ home runs (Reynolds, Ramirez, Davis, Gomez, Braun) and 3 are batting .300+ (Lucroy, Gennett, Gomez; Ramirez and Braun are just shy). K-Rod is revitalized, leading the league with 27 saves and Kyle Lohse is quietly going 9-2 with a 3.08 ERA. Sorry Brewers. The Reds are right on track, with incredibly impressive first halves from Alfredo Simon (10-3, 2.81) and Johnny Cueto (8-5, 1.88). Newly acquired Devin Mesoraco is hitting .307 and 14 home runs; Joey Votto has the third lowest average on the team and they are still performing well - that's the sign of a playoff team. The Cardinals have been offensively underperforming (team average is 7th in NL, 12th in runs) but a .325 season from Matt Adams and .280 from catcher Yadi Molina put them above .500. Defensively, the Cardinals are second to none (actually they are 4th in team ERA), but Adam Wainwright is having an incredible season, going 10-4 with a 2.01 ERA thus far. The Pirates are also underperforming, perhaps still working off the hangover from their first playoff appearance in 20+ years. Offensively, McCutchen is back hard at work, hitting .314 and Gregory Polanco has been a pleasant surprise, hitting safely in his first 10 games as a rookie when he came up earlier this month. The problem has been the pitching; their 3.79 ERA is 11th in the NL and Francisco Liriano, the one whom many considered to be the Pirates x-factor, has not shown his A-game, going 1-6 with a 4+ ERA so far. The Cubs are the typical heartbreaking Cubs, losing games in miraculous fashion; new acquisition Jose Veras got the yips and was later cut and though ace Jeff Samardzija has a 2.83 ERA, he is only 2-7, because the bats have just been quiet all year. Except for Anthony Rizzo (.282, 17 home runs) and Starlin Castro, only one player is batting above .270. No pitching and no hitting is a bad combination, which is why the Cubs are begrudging owners of the worst NL record - with how impatient Epstein has been with his managers, you begin to wonder how long Rick Renteria will last as skipper.

NL West
My predictions:
1) LA 98-64
2) Arizona 83-79
3) San Francisco 81-81
4) Colorado 72-90
5) 70-92

Current standings: 
1) San Francisco 46-36
1) LA 47-37
3) Colorado 36-46
4) San Diego 35-47
5) Arizona 35-49

My grade: C/C+

The NL West is a weak division. I said in my predictions that the Dodgers could spend the entire season in first place - that was wrong; they've only spent a handful in first place and as of today have caught up with the Giants for a tie for first. Who knows where it will go from here, but it will be hard for the Dodgers to replicate what they did in last year's second half, though Kershaw and Beckett have shown they can shut down any lineup. The Giants don't necessarily lead the league in a lot of offensive categories, but they are up there in all the power numbers (4th in slugging, 1st in triples, 3rd in home runs); it may seem that Bochy is adopting the Earl Weaver style of managing: pitching, defense, and the three-run home run. Colorado is playing just about to my guess - amazing offense, but no pitching. Blackmon, Tulo, Stubbs, and Arenado are all batting .295 or above, and the Rockies lead the MLB in team average at .285 (2nd is Detroit at .276 and then Baltimore at .265 - they're on fire). On the flip side, they rank dead last in team ERA at 4.95, and are in the bottom 5 in nearly every pitching category - I got them right at least.The Padres and Diamondbacks have just played bad baseball; the Padres are the league's worst offense (last in NL in average, on base, slugging, hits, and runs), but have kept the ship upright from good starting pitching from Cashner (2-6, 2.53 ERA, has Samrdzija Syndrome) and Tyson Ross (6-8, 3.18). The Diamondbacks are capable of so much more - I think we'll see a second half surge from them to finish a few games below .500. Aaron Hill, who is on pace to produce the same number of home runs and even more RBI, just isn't getting on base as much for Goldy and Parra to drive in. Like I said, I think they'll turn it around.

Well, I got a few teams right. I hope my lack of vision won't turn you away from reading more!
Thanks for stopping by!

Grading My Predictions (ew)

Top of the morning to you all out there. Between watching way too much of the World Cup and working the Star Wars Night at Fifth Third last night, it slipped past me that the Major League season is exactly half way done. As I write this through the tears that another season is halfway in the books, I thought it would be proper to go back to grade my predictions and award winners this far - and hope that I won't lose all credibility whatsoever.

Here's how it will work: for each division, I will list the records I predicted, the current standings, a grade of my prediction, and a quick rundown of how each team has been playing. Here we go!

AL East:

My guess: 

1) Boston 100-62

2) Tampa Bay 93-69

3) New York 91-71

4) Baltimore 82-80

5) Toronto 72-90

Current standings:

1) Toronto 45-38

2) Baltimore 42-38

3) New York 41-38

4) Boston 37-44

5) Tampa Bay 34-49

Grade: F

Basically flip flop the standings and I'd be right. Behind Buehrle's 10 wins and Encarnacion's crazy power numbers, the Jays are flying right past my prediction. The Orioles have had similar success with Nelson Cruz's power outburst and production from Crush Davis and Adam Jones. The Yankees will probably finish around .500, not 20 games above like I predicted. Injury issues with Beltran and a lack of production from McCann overshadow Tanaka's glowing start. Boston has had injury problems as well with Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino and its hurt. Brock Holt has been a bright replacement but Jackie Bradley Jr. is a big step behind where Jacoby Ellsbury was last year in center. The Rays just can't produce. Though David Price leads the league in strikeouts, the Rays simply can't hit - former ROYs Evan Longoria and Wil Myers are hitting .264 and .227, respectively. James Loney is the team's best hitter at .280 and they are 11th in the AL in team average and home runs. Missing Matt Moore hurts a lot as the Rays starters have the worst win-loss percentage in the AL, despite a team ERA of 3.87. Grant Balfour has been grossly underwhelming with only 10 saves and a bloated ERA of 5.52. The Rays need to turn it around fast.

AL Central:

My predictions: 

1) Detroit 95-67

2) Cleveland 93-69

3) Kansas City 86-76

4) Chicago 71-91

5) Minnesota 69-93

Current standings: 

1) Detroit 44-33

2) Kansas City 41-39

3) Cleveland 39-41

4) Chicago 38-44

5) Minnesota 36-43

My grade: B-

In terms of standings, I wasn't that far off except for switching the Indians and Royals. In terms of records, I overprojected for the top and underprojected the bottom. The Tigers had their annual early season slump, losing 16 of 22 games but have slowly clawed their way back to the top of the the weakest division in the AL behind strong starting pitching and the Martinezes (Victor and JD) just mashing (Victor: .323, 20 home runs, JD: .311, 9 home runs, AL player of the week). Eugenio Suarez has been a pleasant surprise at shortstop filling in for the injured Jose Iglesias, hitting .300 with 3 home runs in 21 games. The Royals are incredibly streaky, winning 10 in a row and then losing 4. Pitching is solid, but their big names need to start hitting - Hosmer (.249), Infante (.244) and Moustakas (.178, also the coolest name in baseball) need to step up for a postseason run. Cleveland is the same story. Cory Kluber and Josh Tomlin have picked up the slack for a quiet Justin Masterson and now Oriole Ubaldo Jimenez, but the team's hitting is weak. Except for Brantley (.321) and Chisenhall (.350), the big names are again coming up short. Swisher (.195), Santana (.209) and Kipnis (.254) need to get hot for the team to make a run. Chicago has had the opposite problem; they mash the ball (scoring 354 runs, 6th in AL) but have allowed the most runs in the AL (389). Alexei Ramirez has found his stroke, hitting .295 and rookie Jose Abreu has lived up to his power hype, slugging .631 and is tied for first in the MLB with 25 dingers is 4th in RBI with 63. The Twins are proving to play spoiler behind big seasons from Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, and starting pitcher Phil Hughes. Joe Mauer's uncharacteristically low .271 average will perk up with Kendrys Morales to protect him and this team could play .500 ball down the stretch when Plouffe comes off the DL.

AL West

My predictions: 

1) Oakland 92-70

2) Texas 90-72

3) LA 81-81

4) Seattle 74-88

5) Houston 57-108

Current standings:

1) Oakland 50-30

2) LA 45-34

3) Seattle 43-38

4) Texas 37-43

5) Houston 35-47

Grade: C-

Well, I got Oakland right. Scott Kazmir (9-3, 2.66) has provided a surprising amount of stability for the starting rotation, allowing Sonny Gray (7-3, 3.20) and Jesse Chavez (6-4, 2.94) to have great seasons. An offensive anomaly, the A's rank 8th in team average (.254) but first in runs (414) - they love the long ball and situational hitting, I suppose. The Angels have perked up considering Pujols is back to Pujols and Trout is hitting for more power despite stealing fewer bases and striking out more. CJ Cron, Colin Cowgill, and Hank Conger are great role playing backups that give Scioscia breathing room if someone gets hurt. With a strong rotation of 3 pitchers boasting 8 wins and a team ERA of 3.87, the Angels will have to hope for the Wild Card given how Oakland is playing. As I predicted, Cano is hitting for a very good average (.316) but little power (4 home runs), but is providing good leadership as Kyle Seager has come out of his shell a little bit. King Felix is King Felix and surprisingly Chris Young is their 2nd best starter (7-4, 3.15); Fernando Rodney is 6th in MLB with 22 saves but is also Fernando Rodney with a WHIP of 1.27. Texas: injuries. Derek Holland, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland, Matt Harrison, Tanner Scheppers, Alexi Ogando, Robbie Ross, and Martin Perez have all served or are serving time on the DL. In Beltre we trust (.333, .378, .512). Houston is shocking, considering Jose Altuve is having the best season for any second basemen so far this year (.343, 113 hits, 34 steals). George Springer has also been a bright spot from the minors, showing the farm system is fruitful - Springer leads the team with 15 home runs and 40 RBI in 63 games.

I'll do the National League tomorrow - I don't want to wear you all out (okay, I lied, I'm actually just headed out to go golfing on my day off).

Thanks for reading!