What a Time for the Kubitza Family

Here's a fun trivia question for you baseball fans out there: what brothers have the most career home runs in the Major Leagues? When I was asked this question at the Hall of Fame last summer, my first guesses included the Boone brothers, heck maybe the Molinas with three of them? Maybe The LaRoches? 

The Aarons. Hank's brother Tommie played 7 seasons with the Braves and hit 13 career home runs, which gives them a grand total of 768 home runs, the most of any pair/set of brothers to play professional baseball in America. 

I found that fun intro both factual and transitional into the topic of today's post, about the Texas native Kubitza brothers, Kyle and Austin.

Both Kubitzas went to Colleyville Heritage High School, which is where current MLB pitcher James Russell attended. Just over a year apart, older brother and third baseman/outfielder Kyle attended Texas State University in San Marcos and was drafted in the 3rd round overall by the Braves. Austin, a crafty yet powerful right-handed pitcher, was drafted out of high school but chose to play college ball for the legendary coach Wayne Graham at Rice University in Texas. He was then drafted by the Tigers in the 4th round of the 2013 draft and I had the pleasure of watching him pitch for the Whitecaps this season. 

They've never faced each other, though. Not when they were in college, travel ball, even little league, Austin told MLive reporter Lenny Padilla. He's waiting for when they both make it to the Majors for that opportunity. 

But anyway, the title of my post implies that they're not just a pair of brothers trying to make it to the show. They are incredibly talented, as you could have guessed from Kyle's high draft position and Austin's high draft position both times (7th round out of high school). Kyle, a lefty hitter who posted an absurd .405 OBP last season, stands at 6'3", 215 and his younger brother (not little brother) is 6'5", 225 pounds. That's an intimidating size for both guys.

Imagine a David Freese sized guy but from the other side of the plate and hitting for a better average. Many scouting reports will say that he lacks power to be an effective third basemen in the Braves lineup, but if you're Fredi Gonzalez, how can you refuse a .295 batting average and a .405 on-base from a lefty? He's only gotten better from joining the minors; after a stunning .321 average in rookie ball in 2011, his average plummeted almost 100 points to .239 in 2012, but after many long hours in the cage, raised it to .260 in 2013 and then to .295 in 2014. The hard work paid off for Kyle, as he was named to the Braves' 40-man roster yesterday. Chris Johnson is the current Braves' third basemen and with the trade that sent right fielder Jason Heyward to St. Louis, there is an opening in the corner pasture. I don't think Kubitza will be the starting right fielder in 2015 but I think he could perhaps get a September call-up. With his naming to the 40-man, he will almost certainly start 2015 for AAA Gwinnett and then see how he hits there; it will be the best pitching he'll have seen to date. 

Here is the link for his prospect watch page courtesy of MLB Pipeline. He is the Braves' 12th ranked prospect, and, as you see on the page, is predicted to make his debut in 2015. Scouts gave him a 50 power (out of 80 as a ceiling) and a 60 arm, which will bode well if the Braves give him a chance as their right fielder or third baseman of the future, as both positions require the ability to sling the ball long distances. Working in his favor are the prospects in front of him, which may sound backwards, but of the 11 other prospects in front of him according to Pipeline, there is only one outfielder and one middle infielder, the rest are pitchers or catchers. Seeing as the Braves management would rather grow their talent rather than buy it, I think he has a good shot to not only get a shot but seize it and becoming a starter. Being selected to the 40-man is a good start. 

Austin saw similar success for Low A West Michigan in 2014. He is ranked the #5 prospect for what is a very weak Tigers farm system (seeing as they traded away their #1 to the Blue Jays last week), but don't let that convince you that Kubitza is not major league material. His 2014 stats were nothing short of dominant, going 10-2 with a 2.34 ERA, a 1.076 WHIP (get this: 3.25 K/BB ratio - wow), and 140 K's which was 4th in the Midwest League. Kubitza was an All-Star representative for the Whitecaps (one of their 4 starting pitchers to be named to the roster) and will likely start the 2015 season at AA Erie for the Tigers. 

I may have been an employee when I saw him pitch, but I couldn't help but sneak a peek to watch him practice his craft. He had a great combination of power fastballs and a sharp slider to go with a changeup that dropped off the table to make hitters swing and miss. His scouting ceiling may only be a 45 currently, but going 10-2 with a 2.34 ERA and finishing 4th in the league in strikeouts might make some people change their mind. 

Like the title said, what a time for the Kubitza family. They have two sons on the verge of reaching the biggest stage for baseball players and here I am refusing to turn the heat on in my house because I want to save the extra money. 

Where did I go wrong?

Thanks for reading. 

Oakland Now Serves Country Breakfast

As the wintery offseason wears on and on and gigantic contracts are being signed, we have another contract to discuss. No, it is not Giancarlo Stanoton's $325 million mega signing, or Jason Heyward's trade to the a Cardinals, but a rather surprising one coming from the AL champions. 

The story broke Tuesday night that Billy Butler, warmly known as "Country Breakfast", had signed a 3 year, $30 million contract with the Oakland Athletics.

I'm having trouble picturing him in green and yellow. Courtesy of Baseball Reference.

 Butler, 28, had finished his 8th season with the Royals, hitting .271 (career low) with 9 home runs (career low since his rookie year of 8) and 66 RBIs. This is an intriguing signing to say the least, so let's look at it from a variety of angles: 1) how it affects the Royals, 2) how it affects Butler, and 3) how it affects the A's moving forward. Shall we?

How It Affects the Royals
Coming from my perspective, whenever I watched Billy Butler play, he absolutely raked. Butler's career stats against his AL Central opponents are rather inflated compared to his future home in sunny Oakland: against AL Central opponents, Butler hit .301 in 534 career games while only hitting .283 in 200 career games against AL West opponents. There are a couple of factors that could explain this nearly 30 point increase in batting average:

• Travel: when the Royals went to anywhere in the AL Central, it was either in the same time zone or only one hour ahead, versus a trip out west which is one or two hours behind and a 2,000 mile journey to Seattle (I picked the longest trip to skew the data in my favor, sue me) - that could put a hitch in your swing.
• Experience: Butler has hit well against the Central's best pitching, including a .405 average against Justin Verlander and a .357 average against Chris Sale, but that's because he's faced them so much more than most any other pitcher. Like any good hitter, he's adjusted to what they've thrown and made them pay, but will he do the same out west? In his career, Butler is hitting .211 against CJ Wilson and .217 against Felix Hernandez. We'll be getting more exposure to watching him face the West aces and see if his improvement is real talent or just has a knack for ruining the Central's day. 

How does this affect the Royals? To put it simply, without Butler, I think it will be much harder for them to be as competitive as they were this year. The Royals finished a game behind the Tigers in the Central and still snagged a Wild Card spot, but they didn't play all that well against the Central; 39-37 overall including 6-13 against Detroit and 9-10 against Cleveland. They took care of business against Chicago (13-6) and Minnesota (11-8) and they should have, considering they were AL Champs and the White Sox and Twins trudged below .500 most of the year. While the Royals as a team struggled to beat the better Central teams consistently, Butler had no trouble, hitting .298 with 2 home runs against Tigers pitching and .279 with another 2 home runs against Indians pitching (.289 against all AL Central pitching). Keep in mind: Butler only hit .271 this year with 9 home runs.

So you're telling me he hit 18 points higher in the Central, 27 points higher against the division winner, and almost half his home runs came against the only other teams above .500 in that division? If the Royals want to take the division crown in 2015 rather than settle for a Wild Card spot again, they will need someone to step up like Butler did against the AL Central. 

As for the Royals lineup in general, Butler, primarily their cleanup hitter, served as excellent protection to Hosmer and Cain or whoever was batting 3rd that day depending on the pitcher. In 2014, he hit cleanup in 78 games, 3rd in 27 games, 6th in 23 games, 5th in 11 games, and 7th and 9th a few random times as a PH. Now, the Royals finished at 89-73 last year, a winning percentage of .549 and good enough for the 2nd Wild Card spot. When Butler appeared in games (not necessarily started, but had an AB or an inning in the field), the Royals were 85-66, which was a better winning percentage of .563. When Butler did not play, the Royals were 4-7. I know that's not a lot to pick from, but most of the games he missed were in September, and notably 2 in the same series at Detroit and another against Detroit at home which allowed the Tigers to widen their division margin. See what I mean how he's useful to the team? 

Here's their lineup moving forward (assuming Aoki does not re-sign with the team)

1) Dyson, CF

2) Infante, 2B 

3) Cain, RF

4) Hosmer, 1B

5) Perez, C

6) Gordon, LF

7) DH

8) Moustakas, 3B (hopefully he can repeat his postseason power surge)

9) Escobar, SS

So far the Royals have been quiet on the DH market. I think Michael Morse would fit in really well in Kansas City, he's cheap and has a huge swing for a huge park, but I also read a post today from a blog called Pine Tar Press saying Yasmany Tomas, the Cuban defector, would be a good fit for Kansas City. While I certainly agree with that statement in that Tomas could hit well in such a spacious field and give fellow Cuban Jose Abreu a run for his AL Central and ROY money, I don' think the Royals are the type of team to go sign a big free agent like that. After all, the only few players that they didn't grow themselves on the farm were Infante and Escobar. They don't rely on buying talent. They make it.

Long story short, I think the Royals will still be competitive, but by judging how strong Butler really was when it mattered, that's too big of a loss for the Royals to make up unless they do something huge at the Winter Meetings in a few weeks. 

How It Affects Butler

It will be hard parting with his first team, that is for sure. But he's in for a huge payday by moving out to Oakland; Butler made $8 million last year for the Royals and now he'll make $10 million - even after having a career low year. 

Jon and I were chatting about the A's signing Butler and how this came as a little bit of a shock for how much money he's getting despite having an uncharacteristically unproductive season. He said "guess this player and how much money they will make next year" and gave me the stat line of .271/.323/.379, 9 home runs, 66 RBIs. I first guessed Jacoby Ellsbury, was wrong, then guessed Kyle Seager, again wrong, and he told me Billy Butler and that he was going to make $10 million. To put that in perspective, that's working 1,226,994 hours at minimum wage, or 30,674 work weeks, which is 589 YEARS. But here's the shocking part: it wasn't just a low year, he's been plummeting the last 3 years. Check it out:

• stat: 2012/2013/2014
• average: .313/.289/.271
• slugging: .510/.412/.379
• on-base plus slugging: .882/.787/.702
• home runs: 29/15/9
• RBI: 107/82/66
• total bases: 313/240/208
• hits: 192/168/149

Granted, he played 11 fewer games in 2014 than 2013 but if he can hit 18 points higher, 6 home runs, 16 RBIs and 20 hits in 11 games, then he deserves the $10 million. 

Aside from the payday, I think the O.co Coliseum will fit his swing very well. Butler is a powerful hitter, but does not have a home run swing. 

.gif courtesy of MLB.com.

He swings downward on the ball, which makes him a great low ball hitter (as seen here) but also means he won't hit as many towering fly balls as Giancarlo Stanton, for example, who has a rather uppercut swing. 

See what I mean? Stanton aims to hit home runs (and holy cow does he) while Butler is a much more line drive type hitter, hence why he has good doubles numbers and only decent home runs numbers (his doubles were the only stat not to decrease from 2012-2014 - in fact, they increased). Here's a very well analyzed FanGraphs article proving my point. O.co Coliseum is a big park, but it can play tricks on you.  

See what I mean? Courtesy of Oaklandathletics.com

Given the massive foul territory and the centerfield grandstand that shoots into the sky, the field looks much bigger than it actually is, and it is actually smaller than Kauffman stadium (10 feet shorter to centerfield). Ample room for Butler to keep hitting doubles and hopefully get those RBI's back up.

How It Affects the A's

Billy Beane does it again.

The FanGraphs article I referenced earlier said that the A's have never had 3 $10million players on the roster at the same time under Beane until now. Butler is a great fit in terms of his swing matching, but the lineup doesn't really get a lot of help. Oakland's batting ranked 12th in the AL last year, hitting only .244 but they were third in the AL in runs scored. I will never understand how they grow to be such good situational hitters, but the fact of the matter is, Billy Butler is just like the rest of the A's: good power, good situational hitting, low average. But that's the Billy Beane way, so it makes it such a beautiful signing (I'm also just now learning of the Billy Beane Billy Butler alliteration and I love it). Here's what their lineup looks like:

1) Crisp, CF

2) Donaldson, 3B

3) Gomes, LF

4) Butler, DH

5) Moss, 1B

6) Reddick, RF

7) Norris, C

8) Lowrie, SS

9) Sogard, 2B

Really not a bad lineup. Serious home run threat and great timely hitting. Again, its the Billy Beane way. 

Butler? His OBP isn't bad, but its certainly better than last year's DH in Alberto Callaspo. 

To bring it all back around, I think the A's will be better off than last year, the Royals will be slightly worse unless they can sign someone big, and Butler is happily driving to the bank in essentially whatever vehicle he chooses. 

Thanks for reading. 

Breaking Down Buck, Pt. II

So here I am, back for more, breaking down the career of O's manager Buck Showalter. Yesterday we talked about his path to management, his intriguing managing patterns in terms of employment, and Bad Luck Buck in terms of the teams he manages going on to win World Series after the poor guy left the franchise. 

I left you with some homework of who would win in a best of 7 series between the three teams he's managed that resulted in a Manager of the Year award; the 1994 Yankees, the 2004 Rangers, or last season's Orioles. Let's run down the lineups (in no particular batting order, just how BBR presented them):

1994 Yankees
C: Mike Stanley          
1B: Don Mattingly 
2B: Pat Kelly 
SS: Mike Gallego
3B: Wade Boggs
LF: Luis Polonia
CF: Bernie Williams
RF: Paul O'Neill
DH: Danny Tartabull
SP: Jim Abbott, Jimmy Key, Melido Perez, Terry Mulholland, Scott Kamieniecki
RP: Steve Howe (Closer), Bob Wickman, Xavier Hernandez, Donn Pall, Paul Gibson

The '94 Yankees were no different from the Bronx Bombers of the later '90s, leading the league in average (.290, holy cow), and OBP, and finishing second in runs, hits, slugging percentage, and total bases, and third in doubles and fourth in home runs. Even though they did not yet have Yankee legends Jeter and Rivera and other famous Yankees from their three-peat like Scott Brosius, Chuck Knoblauch, and Roger Clemens, the '94 Yankees had the best record at the time of the strike and despite there being no postseason, I think they would have been the favorites for winning it all. 

2004 Rangers
C: Rod Barajas
1B: Mark Teixeria
2B: Alfonso Soriano
SS: Michael Young
3B: Hank Blalock
LF: David Dellucci
CF: Laynce Nix
RF: Kevin Mench
DH: Brad Fullmer
SP: Kenny Rogers, Joaquin Benoit, Chan Ho Park, Ryan Drese, RA Dickey
RP: Francisco Cordero (closer), Carlos Almanzar, Ron Mahay, Frank Francisco, Brian Shouse

This team was a mean combination of pure slugging and clean pitching and defense. They ranked second in total bases, third in the AL in home runs and slugging percentage, and fourth in doubles and triples. They scored 10 runs or more 17 different times and threw shutouts 9 different times throughout the season. Despite missing the postseason, the Rangers had an 18 game win improvement, which was second in the AL to the Tigers (who set to the record for most losses in a year in 2003, it was hard to go anywhere but up) with +29. Closer Francisco Cordero also was 2nd in the MLB in saves to best-closer-ever Mariano Rivera. Their bullpen was lights out.

2014 Orioles
C: Matt Wieters (lost to injury) / Caleb Joseph
1B: Chris Davis (injury/suspension) / Steve Pearce
2B: Jonathan Schoop
SS: JJ Hardy
3B: Manny Machado (injury) / Ryan Flaherty
LF: David Lough / Alejandro De Aza / Delmon Young
CF: Adam Jones
RF: Nick Markakis
DH: Nelson Cruz
SP: Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kevin Gausman 
RP: Zach Britton (primary closer), Tommy Hunter (lost closing role early in year), Darren O'Day, Brian Matusz, Andrew Miller, Ryan Webb

The 2014 Orioles played second fiddle to AL dominance to the Angels. Even though their 96-66 record was only a game back of the Halos, it seems that if the Yankees or Red Sox aren't competitive, no one cares about the East. I think this year may have been the best for Showalter in terms of managerial acumen because he lost his All-Star catcher, first baseman, and third baseman and still took the second best record in the AL. The Orioles were much like Earl Weaver's Orioles, relying on pitching, defense, and the three-run home run (the Birds finished 1st in the AL with 211 homers). Ranking first in saves, Buck showed some serious managerial guts by giving lefty Britton the closing role after Hunter posted a 6.52 ERA through June 15. 

So who would win? 

The 2004 Rangers. Hank Blalock had a career year in terms of power (he was great for like, three years and then disappeared) and with table setters of Dellucci (steals, bunting), Young (one of the best contact hitters in our generation), sluggers of Soriano and Teixeira could drive them in. Neither the 2014 Orioles nor 1994 Yankees pitched well against left-handed hitters, of which the Rangers had four. Their bullpen was so convincingly better along with better (not the best) starting pitching of the three that any home run Teixeira puts into the right field bleachers would be protected tooth and nail.

While this is all merely conjecture and really you never know what could happen with the 90s meeting the steroid era meeting the post-steroid era, it was still a compelling write. I'm curious to see how Buck would manage against himself. He's not one to hit and run or drop bunts or steal a lot, because he relies on the power numbers and good pitching, which is why the '04 Rangers take the Buck series - they had the best pitching. 

Thanks for reading. 

Breaking Down Buck, Pt. I

As deer hunting season opens up this weekend and the snow is coming down everywhere I look outside my window, I figured what a better time to take a look at Buck Showalter's time as a manager. William Nathaniel Showalter, a product of the Mississippi State Bulldogs baseball program, was drafted by the Yankees in the 5th round of the 1977 draft, which wasn't a deep class for talent, but did include future stars like Ozzie Smith, Terry Francona, Paul Molitor, and Harold Baines. I'm sure most of these draftees, especially the ones coming out of college, were thankfully relieved that it was this draft their career took them to rather than the draft for the Vietnam war which had ended only a few short years before this new group tested their skills in the vast universe that is Minor League Baseball.

Showalter never made it to the show. Despite hitting .294 throughout his 7-year minor league career, he never caught the big break to appear in the House That Ruth Built. It would have been extremely difficult at that time, considering the Yankees won back-to-back World Series in 1977 and 1978, lost the pennant in 1980, and won the pennant but lost the World Series in 1981. They had some great teams and for a decent hitting, relatively small outfielder (Buck only stands at 5'9"), there wasn't a lot of space on the roster (you try beating Dave Winfield and Reggie Jackson for a spot). 

So he took to managing. Shortly after his playing career had ended, Showalter was named manager to a team that he actually passed over in the minors, the low-A Oneonta Yankees. Showalter, now 29 starting his first managing stint, led the young Yankees to an incredible 55-23 record, even though only two offensive payers made it to the Major Leagues (one of whom, Tom Giles, made it as a pitcher rather than his natural third base), he had great pitching, led by 19-year old Al Leiter. Showalter, similar to his playing career, slowly worked his way up the family tree of the Yankees minors; two years in Oneonta, two years in Ft. Lauderdale, and a year with Albany, the AA team.

Showalter, at the young age of 36, finally got his chance at the Major League level when he managed the early '90s Yankees. If nothing else, the Yankees showed tremendous loyalty to Buck, because his mind for baseball was too good to waste. They drafted him in 1977, and 15 years later he was their manager. How many times to teams draft their future manager? 

In 4 years with the Yankees, Showalter posted a 313-268 record, a .539 winning percentage. Unfortunately, you all know the Steinbrenners and their impatience for winning so Showalter was shown the door, just a year after he won his first Manager of the Year award in the strike-shortened season of 1994. Before the strike, the Yankees were 70-43 and 6.5 games ahead of his future Orioles for first place in the AL East. The Yankees would hire now Hall of Famer Joe Torre to manage, which I think was a good move considering they won 4 World Series (3 consecutively from 1998-2000). 

Showalter has had an eerie pattern with his managing career. With the Yankees, Dbacks, Rangers, and now Orioles, he's never been with a team for more than 4 full seasons (his current tenure with the Orioles has been 4 seasons and about 50 games in 2010). Lucky for him though, Orioles management signed him to a lengthy extension through the 2018 season so that pattern will be broken. But, in his first year with any given team, he's always been below .500:

• 1992 Yankees: 76-86
• 1998 Diamondbacks: 65-97
• 2003 Rangers: 71-91
• 2011 Orioles: 69-93

Then the year after, he brings chemistry to the clubhouse and makes his teams quite formidable:

• 1993 Yankees: 88-74
• 1999 Diamondbacks: 100-62
• 2004 Rangers: 89-73 (Manager of the Year)
• 2012 Orioles: 93-69

But then the trend goes the other way. After he leaves the team, they excel beyond comparison:

• 1996 Yankees (Buck left in '95): World Champs, Jeter ROY
• 2001 Diamondbacks (Buck left in 2000): World Champs, Randy Johnson CYA
• 2010 Rangers (Buck left in 2006): Back-to-back pennants

That has to be hard to swallow,

though he is on the right track with the Orioles, winning the AL East this year and advancing to the ALCS. If they can get some more starting pitching to complement Chris Tillman, they should be fierce contenders. 

What's the most interesting pattern to me are is his award winning years. Showalter has been named the Manager of the Year in 1994, 2004, and 2014. He is the second manager to win the award in three different decades (Tony La Russa won in '83, '88, '93, '02) but he is the first to win the award exactly 10 years apart twice (La Russa came pretty close). 

So here's my question: which of his Manager of the Year teams would win in a best-of-7 series?

1994 Yankees vs. 2004 Rangers vs. 2014 Orioles

Find out tomorrow. Thanks for reading Part I. 

The Doubles Record

As I was writing my Carlos Beltran post yesterday, I started looking up all-time doubles leaders and their history. I think doubles are great. You don't need to have blazing speed or superhuman strength to be a doubles champion; one year its Dustin Pedroia, one year its Brian Roberts, the next its Miguel Cabrera or Paul Goldschmidt. Doubles are some of the most well struck balls; even Big Papi can just miss a waist high fastball and still muscle it over the wall. Doubles, though, are pure contact, they are laced down the line and carom into the corners of the park or they are sent soaring into the gap on a relaxing two hopper to the wall. Doubles are beautifully hit baseballs, it is incredibly rare to see a mistake double, but at the same time a hitter holds his own fate if he wants to test the outfielder and take the chance at second base. 

John McCain loves America and doubles. So you have to, too.

Excuse the gushing over doubles. They're just real neat.

Tristram E. Speaker, The Grey Eagle, also known as Tris to everyone else, is the career doubles champion with 792. Speaker played 22 seasons for primarily Boston and Cleveland, but also had single season stints with the nation's capital and the City of Brotherly Love to round out his career. Speaker was a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame, with those 792 doubles, 3,514 hits, a .345 batting average (just check out his 1916 season, it was pretty great), and career .500 slugging percentage (even though he only has 117 home runs, you gotta love the Dead Ball Era). 

But here's what I'm going to determine with this blog. The doubles record seems like its certainly attainable compared to DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak, Ripken's Iron Man streak, Young's 511 wins, etc. That's why I think it will be broken in my lifetime - who will do it is a big question but I am confident it will be done. Whether it is an active player today or someone to be a star in the future I don't know, but what I do know is that like the 1910s and 20s when Speaker played, baseball is becoming a hitter's game again, unlike the cruel post WWII era of Koufax, Gibson, Ford, Spahn, Marichal, etc. 

Let's do some math first. Speaker's 792 doubles across 22 seasons equals exactly 36 doubles a season. Hitters nowadays are rarely hitting for 22 seasons at that high of a level, so let's adjust it to 17 seasons: that comes to approximately 46.5 (round up to 47) doubles a season. But that's if someone were to come into the league starting next year, we haven't taken into account the active players. Here are my top projections to take over the doubles crown:

1. Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera has led the league in doubles in his career in 2011 and in 2014. His career high of 52 came this past year in 2014 despite playing through such intense pain that he needed pins in his ankle after the season was over - can you imagine how many more he could get if he weren't hitting on one leg? His bionic abilities are neither here nor there, what's important is that he has 464 career doubles after his age 31 season. Next year he'll turn 32 shortly after Opening Day and is already a full season ahead of Speaker's 395 doubles after his own age 31 season. I think if these surgeries have paid off for Miggy and the Tigers can sign VMart to protect him in the cleanup spot in the future, we could see many more 50 doubles seasons in the future. 

Now, back to the math: Cabrera has to hit 328 doubles to tie Speaker. If he can muster 7 more full seasons (he'll switch to DH eventually) of high caliber doubles baseball, he'll need to average 47 doubles a year to catch him. If he has another year like 2013 (only 28 doubles), it will be distinctly more difficult. Beginning at age 32, Speaker had consecutive seasons ripping 50-52-48-59 doubles. That's what got him to be the doubles champion, not just playing for a long time. Cabrera will have to mimic that to get a higher career total than he.

2. Robinson Cano
Cano has never led the league in doubles (yet) but he has been one of the most consistent doubles hitters in the league during his career. His rookie year brought 34 doubles and his 2014 campaign brought 37 - that's impressive in itself but what's even more impressive is that he's reached his career high 48 doubles on two separate occasions 3 years apart (2009, 2012). Since 2007, Cano has not missed more than 5 games in a season so he has both durability and a highly consistent 44 doubles per 162 games average working in his favor. He is a few months older than Cabrera so that may present an issue but considering his sturdy type of play, I doubt that will play much of a factor - most teams wouldn't mind Cano as a DH in the future. 

Where he plays is probably his biggest advantage but also the worst thing for him. Safeco Field is an absolutely huge field with spacious power alleys and deep foul poles. Prior to being a Mariner, Cano was in the bandox that was Yankee Stadium. Nearly any fly ball he hit there turned into a home run while many of those same fly balls were either doubles or long outs at Safeco Field. Cano's average held steady at .314, no change from 2013 and only one point higher than 2012, so it's evident that many of his hits are still falling but they're falling on the green side of the fence rather than in the stands - his power was just about cut in half in 2014. He hit 14 home runs in '14, compared to 27 in 2013 at the tiny Yankee Stadium, his lowest total since 2008 when he was 25. Cano is still making excellent contact with the ball (lowest strikeout total since 2009), but just not collecting the power numbers as much - because of the park. He adjusted his swing path because he knew the home runs wouldn't come:

Spray charts are courtesy of FanGraphs. His last season as a Yankee (2013) is on top, his 2014 season is on bottom.

In 2014 as a Mariner, he hit more opposite field line drives than turning on the ball to tuck them into Yankee Stadium's short porch. His average was the same, his OBP was the same, but his slugging dropped. But his doubles hovered right around his career average. Interesting.

Cano has 412 career doubles through only 10 seasons (nearly twice Speaker's total in his first 10 seasons). He'll need to hit 380 doubles in 7 seasons to tie Speaker, which is 54 doubles a season. Considering he has never had a 50 double season, that is unlikely although I can see it happening. If he stays healthy and plays another 9 years to age 40, he'll need to average 42 doubles a season and since he's averaged 44 to this point, I would consider it a definite possibility.

I know Pujols is the active leader in doubles with 561. He's only 231 off of Speaker's record but Pujols has slowed down considerably since leaving St. Louis. His career average has dropped 11 points (.328 in St. Louis to .317 overall), his slugging percentage has plummeted from .617 in his Cardinals years to .588 career (and he's still the active leader!) and his doubles totals have been anemic in recent years (29 in 2011, 19 in 2013). He's shown signs of old Pujols, but not at the torrid pace that he used to hit at in the early 2000s when he was being snubbed of MVPs left and right by Barry Bonds.

Gun to my head, I'd think Cabrera has the best shot at beating the record simply because he has a head start on Cano. Cano is certainly more consistent and will have a longer career but he will have to play early into his 40s if he wants to beat it.

As always, I don't think these guys will care about the record if they all get rings. 
Any thoughts on who will beat the record, you know where the comment box is or you can give me a shout on Twitter. Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed that John McCain gif.

The Case for Carlos Beltran

Yankees' DH/outfielder Carlos Beltran has been one of the bigger names in the game of baseball for the past 15 years or so since he won the AL Rookie of the Year award for the 1999 season (side note, ROYs are announced tonight at 6 PM). He signed a 3-year deal with the Yankees after last offseason, putting him under contract until the end of the 2016 season when he will be 39 years old. If he were to sign anything after that, it would most likely be strictly as a designated hitter.

I said he was one of the bigger names, but not the biggest. When you think of MLB stars, the first name to come to mind is not Carlos Beltran, it's probably Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, or Clayton Kershaw. But that's how Beltran has made his career: good baseball under the radar, and better baseball when it matters, boasting a .333 career postseason average in 51 games. 

With the end of Beltran's career in sight, or at least slowing down with injuries this year for the Yankees, the question comes to mind: will Carlos Beltran be a Hall of Famer?

The Case Against Beltran
There are a few big strikes against Beltran that will be hard for voters to see past. The biggest isn't one thing or another, it's just him: he doesn't really stand out. When you look at his career stats, what pops out to you? Other than the ROY in 1999, nothing really. And that's the biggest problem. He's been extremely consistent, oscillating back and forth between the lesser of the best and the best of the lesser, which could explain why he's bounced around to so many teams in his career (KC, NYM, HOU, SF, NYY, STL), but he's never filtered to the top, the best of the best. While this can be combated with his postseason performances, there are a couple other issues I want to address before we move to the case for him.

• No rings. I know voters may not put a lot of stock into winning titles, but it's one of the first things I look at in a player; it shows dedication to the franchise, the ability to make players around them better, it shows putting the team's will to win over your own to succeed. Not to say Beltran is self-centered or has a big ego, but he's never been the fearless leader that I think was expected of him. In 1999, Beltran's official rookie season, the Royals finished in 4th place in the Central at 64-97, and even worse, from 1999-2004, his last year as a Royal, they finished 409-562. He's won a handful of pennants, but he didn't make the team good, he was just on a good team.
• No league leading stats. There have been a lot of Hall of Famers to never win a World Series (just ask any Cub who played the last 100 years or any Red Sox fan from 1918-2004), but that doesn't mean they didn't have great players. Carlos Beltran has led the league in one thing during his entire career: games played in 2002, which he shared with 4 other people. 

  

  Shoutout to Ms. Frizzle.

• Consider some of the "marquee stats" that basically solidify Hall of Famers. 3,000 hits - no (possible, but not probable; 2,322 currently), 400 home runs - no (again, close, 373), .300 average - no (not happening, .281), 500 doubles - no (close, 469). 
• No personal awards other than ROY (with a class of Freddy Garcia and Jeff Zimmerman).
• He's never stayed on a good team very long. He goes where the money is.

The Case for Beltran

While his biggest strike against him was that he mostly played in the shadows of other big names, the brightest feather in his cap is his consistency. The fact that he bounced from team to team shows that he always performed no matter where he went. He's appeared in 4 postseasons for 3 different teams 9 years apart (2004, 2006, 2012, 2013) and as I mentioned earlier, hit at an elite level (.333) with 16 home runs and 40 RBIs in 51 games. 

Projecting his Hall of Fame class ballot class will be tricky. If he retires after the 2016 season, he'll be on the 2021 ballot and eligible for the 2022 class, and it's hard to say who else will retire in 2016. Names that come to mind are Torii Hunter, David Ortiz, Tim Hudson, Ichiro, just to name a few. Then there will be those still on the ballot from the previous packed years, including Roger Clemens, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, and everyone's favorite, Barry Bonds. It will be a crowded ballot again (projected) but I think of these names, Beltran does have the numbers to filter to the top. 

Though he does not have any rings, he was always in the conversation (although he was never at the beginning of the paragraphs). And since I mentioned the "marquee" stats, let's compare him to other Hall of Famers:

• Hits: If he retired today, his 2,322 hits would be 82nd in the Hall behind Barry Larkin, but almost a whole season under the HOF average of 2,397. With two more healthy years in a Yankee uniform, Beltran could eclipse 2,600. 
• Home runs: 373 would put him 32nd among Hall of Famers and while many players were inducted for something other than power, if Beltran reaches 400 in his next two years, it will put him in an elite club and the top 25 of Hall of Famers. 
• Batting average: Statistically, Beltran's .281 average is probably the biggest dirt we have on him. It would rank 122nd of the Hall of Famers, just before Rickey Henderson.  Like I said though, Beltran wouldn't get in based on average, it would be the next stat.
• Doubles and slugging percentage: Beltran's 469 doubles is a formidable stat. Currently he ranks 45th in doubles in the Hall of Fame class and is already two seasons above the HOF average of 410. He will easily get to 500 in the next two seasons if he stays healthy, putting him in the top 35 and deeper into the voting mind. Furthermore, his slugging percentage is no Babe Ruth, but an impressive .491 would be 43rd in the Hall and 29 points above the average. Wow.

The last trait he has going for him is not so much he did on the field as he did off. Beltran, a Puerto Rican, has played the 6th most games in the Majors out of anyone from Puerto Rico. He has the 5th most All-Star games (8) out of anyone from Puerto Rico, and he's in excellent company: Roberto Clemente (HOF), Pudge Rodriguez (soon to be HOF), Roberto Alomar (HOF), and Orlando Cepeda (HOF). He also won the 2013 Roberto Clemente Award, which is awarded to the player "combining good play and strong work in the community" (BBR). 

While Puerto Rico has given the Majors plenty of talent, only a handful of that talent has both produced at an elite level and given back to their community. While it may seem that Beltran just goes to the team with the biggest paycheck, he takes that paycheck and returns it to his home in Puerto Rico investing in his Carlos Beltran Foundation, a place where children can chase their dreams through sports and education. Mark Newman of MLB.com has more here.

To do something like this while he is still playing shows that he's not just in it for the positive press or the tax breaks. When he retires, I'm sure he could coach or announce or do just about anything else regarding professional baseball but I think he'll go right back to Puerto Rico and help young boys and girls be successful like he was. 

He isn't the best hitter we've ever seen. He isn't the best fielder we've ever seen even though he has 3 Gold Gloves. He isn't the greatest leader we've ever seen. He isn't the most decorated player. But he's one of the best men to play the game and to do it at that high of a level for 17 years (already, and two more to come) deserves my Hall of Fame vote. 

Thanks for reading. 

Yadi Molina

Tonight was a big night for baseball in terms of personal awards. The major award finalists were announced, including both AL and NL Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young, and MVPs, as well as all of the Gold Glove award winners. My Tigers were shutout from wins for another year, but the Orioles (3 winners), Royals (3), and Rockies (2) all had excellent showings.

Here's what really grasped me though. Yadier Molina, Cardinals catcher and the youngest of the Molina Catching Trio (Bengie, left, Jose, center, Yadier, right; all photos are courtesy of Baseball Reference)

won his 7th consecutive NL Gold Glove for catching tonight. Both Bengie and Jose won a World Series ring with the Angels in 2002, and with Yadi's win with the 2006 Cardinals, they became the first trio of brothers to ever win World Series rings. How fun would that be at Thanksgiving? 

But back to Yadi. I have a bold claim to make about him. This is bolder than bold Chex Mix;

it's bolder than when I remove my contacts shortly after eating hot wings; ladies and gentlemen this claim is bolder than Colorado (sweet mercy I hope someone gets that joke):

Yadier Molina is the best catcher of our generation.

(See I even put it in boldface type just in case you didn't hear me that it was bold.)

Yes, he's even better than Ivan Rodriguez. Now, Yadi is only 31 and has many more years of catching ahead of him, especially if he finds the fountain of youth like Pudge, who caught up to age 39 for the Nationals. Through age 31, Pudge had 10 Gold Gloves and a higher batting average than Yadi, but let's look a little deeper.

First, Yadi has a higher catching fielding percentage than Pudge. Through 11 seasons, he has a .994 fielding percentage and only 53 errors. Pudge's career fielding percentage is .991, still excellent, with 142 errors. Even if Yadi were to catch for 10 more years, essentially doubling his service time, his projection would jump just barely over 100 career errors, considerably fewer than Pudge. Pudge's cannon was great to have because he kept runners close and nabbed anything that moved, but that came to backfire at times with the ball trickling away from fielders or simply airmailing them. And even with Pudge's absurd 88 career pickoffs, let me tell you a secret: Yadi has 52 career pickoffs, and is on pace to pass him. Pudge got there faster, but Yadi has proven to be more consistent. 

Not just with pickoffs, but caught stealing percentage, too. Pudge led the league multiple times, but who was stealing bases? In 2001, Pudge caught 60% of base runners, a career high, but the AL steals leaders that year were Ichiro (487 career), Roger Cedeno (213), Alfonso Soriano (I know, right? 289), Mark McLemore (272), and Chuck Knoblauch (407). Of the top 5, Pudge only threw them out 3 times out of 9 chances throughout the 2001 season.

It was not a strong stealing class compared to Yadi's career high of 64% in 2005, when the NL steals leaders were Jose Reyes (455 career steals), Juan Pierre (614), Jimmy Rollins (453), Ryan Freel (only 143), and Willy Taveras (only 195 career, but 68 in 2008). Of the top 5 NL base stealers, Yadi threw them out 57.1% of the time, or 4 caught stealing out of 7 attempts.

This is the first thing I uploaded to the blog, even before any text. It's probably looped 1500 times now and gets better every time.

So Yadi's career high 64% is better than Pudge's career high 60%, it was against a higher quality selection of thieves, and he threw them out more than Pudge threw out the top 5. Pretty convincing if you ask me.

Second, look at leadership. Yadi doesn't only have 2 World Series rings, but he's also caught much better pitchers and made them better pitchers. The following stats and individual successes all come under Molina as the primary Cardinals starting catcher:

• Adam Wainwright: 2 CYA runner-ups, 3 ASGs, career highs in wins, ERA, CG, shutouts, WHIP
• Chris Carpenter: CYA, 3 ASGs, career highs in W, CG, lows in ERA, WHIP
• Edwin Jackson: 3rd lowest ERA, highest winning percentage 
• Jason Marquis: career ERA in 2004
• Kyle Lohse: Only top 10 CYA voting, career highs in wins, winning percentage, his only sub 3 ERA, and lowest career WHIP

While Pudge didn't have great pitchers to begin with, he didn't make them much better, either.

• Kenny Rogers - career high in wins was not with Pudge, lowest starting ERA was with Oakland
• Aaron Sele - lowest ERA was with Boston
• Kevin Brown - for the first player ever to sign a $100 million contract, he only had a career high in wins under Pudge; his careers in WHIP and ERA were with the Marlins
• Rick Helling - only had career high wins

You may argue that Yadi was given better pitchers talent wise. Then I would counter with Kyle Lohse's 2012 performance, something he has never duplicated in his career, or Jason Marquis who was always around, but never really great, while Pudge had some solid pitchers that blossomed after they had a different catcher. Maybe he had a different training regimen where they improved later. 

Pudge is the better offensive catcher, there is no doubt about that. However, Yadi's offense has improved vastly the last 5 years and if it weren't for a nasty thumb ligament injury that limited his swinging ability in 2014, he probably could have hit above .300 for the fourth straight year. After age 31, Pudge slowly began to trend downward offensively, though he had some peaks in the remaining 8 years. If Molina continues on his upward trend (.262 in 2010 to .319 in 2013), he could push his career average close to .290 (sitting at .284 right now). I think because of the offensive numbers and just how many times he led the league in caught stealing percentage, he'll be remembered as a better catcher, but he also played in the steroid era when steals were an ancient stat.

Pudge's thoughts towards Yadi.

Molina, especially playing in the NL and for manager La Russa, is of the small ball school, where catchers have to be quick and catlike rather than just have a great arm to not only throw runners out but to call pitches, know batters and runner tendencies, and then turn around and hit. 

With 6 All-Star games, 7 straight Gold Gloves (2 Platinum), and 2 rings, Molina is authoring an impressive Hall of Fame resume. However, knowing that chicks and writers dig the longball, Yadi's .284 career average and only 1297 hits through 11 years is not quite legendary quality. But we never know what the future holds; Yadi could blossom into a .300 hitter and rewrite the offensive history books for catchers. But for now, I hope you agree with me through my research that Yadi Molina is the best catcher of the three Molinas and of this generation. 

Thanks for reading.