Grading My Predictions, Pt. II

Now that we all know that I am completely incapable of seeing six months into the future (at least for baseball - six months from now, I predict it will be December), it is time for even further self-deprecation and to look at my NL grades. Here we go. Ugh.

NL East:
My prediction:
1) Atlanta 94-68
2) Washington 90-72
3) Philadelphia 75-87
4) Miami 68-94
5) New York 60-102

Current standings: 
1) Atlanta 44-38
2) Washington 43-38
3) Miami 39-43
4) New York 37-45
5) Philadelphia 36-46

Grade: B

So far, not bad. This division is much closer than most anyone expected, and other than the Phillies being in the bottom, I was just about there. With the losses of Gavin Floyd, Brandon Beachy, and Kris Medlen to injury and the ageless wonder Tim Hudson to the Giants, Atlanta's pitching was in question and Aaron Harang and Julio Teheran have stepped up to fill the gaps, enough to get the ball to Kimbrel so he can be Kimbrel (see my post: Release the Kimbrel). Offensively, no one is having a career year though everyone is producing just about at where they were expected to (Gattis, Freeman, and J. Upton all hitting well). The Nationals, even without Bryce Harper, have continued to compete behind big years from Adam "Back from the Dead" Laroche (.308, 11 HR) and Anthony Rendon (.282, 12 HR). Doug Fister (6-2, 2.83) has proved to be a great acquisition; the team ERA is first in the NL though they just can't hit enough for wins. How about the Marlins? Minus last year's ROY Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez and Nate Eovaldi have stepped up to fill that gap as well as superb team defense from Hechavarria and Ozuna. Stanton (.316, 21 HR, 60 RBI) has been hitting moonshot after moonshot, which is why the Marlins are 3rd in the NL in runs. The Mets have been led by Bartolo Colon's strong pitching with Matt Harvey absent and Zack Wheeler still growing into his role as a starter. The offense is quiet night after night; their .238 team average is 13th in the NL. Curtis Granderson is having another low-average, high strikeout season (as I predicted given the capacity of Citi Field; surprisingly, Daniel Murphy is the Mets' leading hitter. I guessed that the Phillies age was going to be a liability, but not to this extent; their .240 average is 12th in the NL and are 11th in runs with 313. Mike Buchanan is their only starting pitcher who has a record above .500, and he's only 4-3. Cliff Lee is 4-4, Cole Hamels 2-4, and AJ Burnett 5-7. Ben Franklin could come back and pitch, that's always an option.

NL Central
My prediction:
1) St. Louis 102-60
2) Cincinnati 94-68
3) Pittsburgh 93-69
4) Chicago 69-93
5) Milwaukee 65-97

Current standings:
1) Milwaukee 51-33
2) Cincinnati 43-38
3) St. Louis 44-39
4) Pittsburgh 42-40
5) Chicago 34-46

Grade: Something lower than failing
Well, I am a moron. I predicted MIlwaukee to have 65 wins this whole season and they'll get it before the end of July. The Brewers offense is hard to stop; they are 2nd in the NL in runs, hits, average, and home runs; 5 starters have 10+ home runs (Reynolds, Ramirez, Davis, Gomez, Braun) and 3 are batting .300+ (Lucroy, Gennett, Gomez; Ramirez and Braun are just shy). K-Rod is revitalized, leading the league with 27 saves and Kyle Lohse is quietly going 9-2 with a 3.08 ERA. Sorry Brewers. The Reds are right on track, with incredibly impressive first halves from Alfredo Simon (10-3, 2.81) and Johnny Cueto (8-5, 1.88). Newly acquired Devin Mesoraco is hitting .307 and 14 home runs; Joey Votto has the third lowest average on the team and they are still performing well - that's the sign of a playoff team. The Cardinals have been offensively underperforming (team average is 7th in NL, 12th in runs) but a .325 season from Matt Adams and .280 from catcher Yadi Molina put them above .500. Defensively, the Cardinals are second to none (actually they are 4th in team ERA), but Adam Wainwright is having an incredible season, going 10-4 with a 2.01 ERA thus far. The Pirates are also underperforming, perhaps still working off the hangover from their first playoff appearance in 20+ years. Offensively, McCutchen is back hard at work, hitting .314 and Gregory Polanco has been a pleasant surprise, hitting safely in his first 10 games as a rookie when he came up earlier this month. The problem has been the pitching; their 3.79 ERA is 11th in the NL and Francisco Liriano, the one whom many considered to be the Pirates x-factor, has not shown his A-game, going 1-6 with a 4+ ERA so far. The Cubs are the typical heartbreaking Cubs, losing games in miraculous fashion; new acquisition Jose Veras got the yips and was later cut and though ace Jeff Samardzija has a 2.83 ERA, he is only 2-7, because the bats have just been quiet all year. Except for Anthony Rizzo (.282, 17 home runs) and Starlin Castro, only one player is batting above .270. No pitching and no hitting is a bad combination, which is why the Cubs are begrudging owners of the worst NL record - with how impatient Epstein has been with his managers, you begin to wonder how long Rick Renteria will last as skipper.

NL West
My predictions:
1) LA 98-64
2) Arizona 83-79
3) San Francisco 81-81
4) Colorado 72-90
5) 70-92

Current standings: 
1) San Francisco 46-36
1) LA 47-37
3) Colorado 36-46
4) San Diego 35-47
5) Arizona 35-49

My grade: C/C+

The NL West is a weak division. I said in my predictions that the Dodgers could spend the entire season in first place - that was wrong; they've only spent a handful in first place and as of today have caught up with the Giants for a tie for first. Who knows where it will go from here, but it will be hard for the Dodgers to replicate what they did in last year's second half, though Kershaw and Beckett have shown they can shut down any lineup. The Giants don't necessarily lead the league in a lot of offensive categories, but they are up there in all the power numbers (4th in slugging, 1st in triples, 3rd in home runs); it may seem that Bochy is adopting the Earl Weaver style of managing: pitching, defense, and the three-run home run. Colorado is playing just about to my guess - amazing offense, but no pitching. Blackmon, Tulo, Stubbs, and Arenado are all batting .295 or above, and the Rockies lead the MLB in team average at .285 (2nd is Detroit at .276 and then Baltimore at .265 - they're on fire). On the flip side, they rank dead last in team ERA at 4.95, and are in the bottom 5 in nearly every pitching category - I got them right at least.The Padres and Diamondbacks have just played bad baseball; the Padres are the league's worst offense (last in NL in average, on base, slugging, hits, and runs), but have kept the ship upright from good starting pitching from Cashner (2-6, 2.53 ERA, has Samrdzija Syndrome) and Tyson Ross (6-8, 3.18). The Diamondbacks are capable of so much more - I think we'll see a second half surge from them to finish a few games below .500. Aaron Hill, who is on pace to produce the same number of home runs and even more RBI, just isn't getting on base as much for Goldy and Parra to drive in. Like I said, I think they'll turn it around.

Well, I got a few teams right. I hope my lack of vision won't turn you away from reading more!
Thanks for stopping by!

J-Roll

Last week, Phillie for life Jimmy Rollins broke Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt's franchise record for hits at 2,235. Rollins, with a weeks worth of games since then, now sits at 2,241 entering play on the 22nd of June. First of all, congratulation J-Roll, whose 5'8", 170 pound frame is in the top 10 of nearly every offensive category in Phillies history. And second, what an amazing moment for he and the Phillies fans to see Mike Schmidt come out and celebrate. 

Courtesy of the Phillies on Instagram. 

On a 3-1 count in the 5th inning, Rollins took a fastball from Cubs starter Edwin Jackson and sent it into right field and also sent Citizens Bank into pandemonium for a new franchise leader. This ESPN article does a nice job recounting his career accomplishments and his place in the Phillies organization. In case you don't want to click on the article, I'll highlight it for you: 

• First in doubles (466)
• Second in: extra base hits (782), total bases (3,540), games (2,015), at-bats (8,331)
• Third in: steals (436), runs (1,281), triples (109) 

And he still has the rest of this year to rise up in the ranks. At age 35, this is probably his final season, but we shall see. He and fellow middle infielder Chase Utley (also 35) have been in double play partners for 11 years in the City of Brotherly Love, so if one goes, they both will. I think they'll both retire Phillies and I also think this won't be their final year. 

Is Jimmy Rollins a Hall of Famer? Unfortunately, I do not think so. He is a great player and has been a tremendous leader for the Phillies, but he's not one of the greatest players to ever win the game. He plays the game the right way and you can tell he respects it, but is he in the top 1% of all time? No. That said, I don't want to leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, here are some of my favorite career highlights of his:

1) The 2008 World Series

The Phillies had not won a World Series since 1980 until this exciting matchup with the miracle Rays. Though Rollins did not necessarily hit at an incredibly high level (.227/.261/.318), he scored 2/3 of the times he was on base. I think that is an amazing stat (as well as a good indication of the Phillies situational hitting) - his leadership at its best.

2) 20-20-20-20

This quad-twenties is another incredibly impressive feat that shows a well-rounded nature to a player's game. In 2007, the same year in which Rollins won his only MVP, he hit 38 doubles, 20 triples, 30 home runs, and stole 41 bases. Only three other players in the history of the game have managed to log at least 20 of each doubles, triples, steals, and home runs (Frank Schulte, Willie Mays, Curtis Granderson) - but what makes this more impressive is that he was the leadoff hitter. He also didn't miss a game. 

3) Once a Phillie, Always a Phillie

J-Roll's rookie year was with the Phillies in 2000. His final year will be with the Phillies. For a guy who was born and raised in Oakland, California, it could have been very easy for him to start with the Phillies and go home back to Oakland or LA, but he stuck with them for his entire career. I love that in players. It's rare nowadays and to be honest, if I were a pro, I would probably want to hop around to whoever would pay me the most / my best chance at a title was. He's seen 5 different managers, but only 2 losing seasons. Just to prove how important he is to the team: the Phillies went 65-97 his rookie year. The year after his best personal season ever they won the World Series - and now that his career is on his way out, so are the Phillies as they are 34-39 going into play today (a lot of this has to do with Ryan Howard, Papelbon, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, Chooch, etc, but HEY this blog is about J-Roll guys, come on!)

Congratulations, Jimbo Slice. Coming soon - a tribute to the great Mr. Padre, Tony Gwynn. 

Thanks for reading.

The Mets' Big Week

Hi again, everyone. I just finished a 13 hour shift at the Caps and had $9 worth of McDonald's, so you guys are in for a treat  of a post tonight. My computer has been on the fritz as well so I'm writing this from my phone. The topic: the New York Mets. 

Earlier this week, Mets starter Bartolo Colon collected his 2,000th career strikeout, making him the 70th pitcher in history to do so, and 69th overall in career strikeouts. I think it is safe to say that Colon won't challenge Nolan Ryan for first all time, but he can move up a few more spots. At this point in the season, he has 52 strikeouts in 10 starts, for a 7.2 K/9 - not bad for a 41-year old. Last year, Colon pitched 190 innings, which puts him on pace to get exactly 100 more strikeouts for the rest of the year, which would put him at 2,102 K's in his career, good enough for 61st all-time between Roy Halladay and Kevin Millwood (anyone else surprised that Kevin Millwood was that high on the list?). Colon's shining year came in an Angels uniform in 2005, when he won the Cy Young going 21-8 with an ERA and hurling 222.2 innings. Pretty underwhelming numbers for an MVP year considering some of the stats we have seen from pitchers in the past. Not to downgrade his success - winning a Cy Young is still no easy task. Colon is a good pitcher, but because of injuries, inconsistency, and a run-in with PEDs, I don't think he'll be a Hall of Famer. Just a handful of All Star selections and a Cy Young, though he does have 193 wins and an outside shot at 200. He may get some votes...but given the PED thing and most balloters stance on PEDs, he might not stay on the ballot. 

He's an interesting case. So much goodness at the beginning of the career, then he kinda disappeared for a bit and now he's back. When he came back with the A's last year people started to laugh...but after an 18-6 season with an All-Star selection and 6th in Cy Young voting, I think he's the one left laughing. Congrats, big fella.

Then tonight, only a few days later, equally aging Met Bobby Abreu stole his 400th base of his career, a very impressive stat given Abreu's size and how steals are becoming a commodity rather than an expectation from players. In 2004 with the Phillies, he stole 40 bases, hit .301 (.428 OBP!) with 3" home runs and 105 RBIs. He also had 11 more walks than strikeouts (gotta love that). He was an All-Star that year as well as Silver Slugger, but was only 23rd in MVP voting - but this was in the height of the Hall of Fame Era (yes I am coining a new era - big things happening at the Billpen), with Bonds, Edmonds, Beltre, Clemens, AND Pujols in the Top 10. WOW. Sorry Bobby. But congrats on tonight's big achievement! Abreu is now tied for 73rd all-time with Bill Lange at 400 even. 

What I'll remember him most for is the 2005 Home Run Derby, which was held at Comerica Park in Detroit. On his way to winning the Derby,

Abreu hit a 517 foot home run that left the entire park. I have never seen anything that monstrous again in my life, Derby or not. Though Giancarlo Stanton comes close. 

Thanks for reading, as always, and if you see Abreu or Colon or any other of the Mets, congratulate them and offer them a glass of Joint Juice - they might need it. 

Have a great weekend!

2014 Predictions: NL East

The NL East had some trouble with competition this past year. The Braves ran away with the division, winning it by 10 games over the Nationals and another 12 games over the next closest competitor. It was also an injury-ridden division. Even the Braves were not immune from the bug; Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, Dan Uggla, and BJ Upton all had stints on the 15-day DL and Tim Hudson got his ankle shattered against the Mets in the middle of the summer. Despite their hard luck (it was not as hard as anyone else's), Fredi Gonzalez rode the successes of Chris Johnson, Freddie Freeman, and Andrelton Simmons into the playoffs. I expect them to do the exact same thing in 2014.

NL East

1. Atlanta 94-68
All of the pieces are in place. Now it is time to perform. Last year, a lot of people left their game in the warm weather in Spring Training a la BJ Upton only hitting .184 and Dan Uggla .179. Evan Gattis was a pleasant surprise, crushing 21 home runs in 105 games, and he will take over the full time catching position since Brian McCann has gone to the Yankees. Freddie Freeman, coming off of an offseason engagement to his girlfriend, will be in high spirits and repeat his .319 campaign and lead the league in hugs given.

The second base position is shaky as of right now: Uggla will be back, but youngsters Joey Terdoslavich and Taylor Pastornicky (spell check is screaming at me right now) will also make a case for the spot come Spring. We'll see what Gonzalez picks. The rotation is solid, with new pitchers Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd joining the squad. The newly signed Julio Teheran will continue to improve along side of young hurlers Mike Minor and Kris Medlen. Floyd and Beachy will not be 20 game winners, that's for sure, but they are good 4th and 5th pitchers. If they can get any type of lead, they'll be turning it over to the *new* best closer in the game, Craig Kimbrel. 

2. Washington 90-72
A lot of folks are picking the Nats to be a powerhouse and even go all the way this year. I have a few reservations about them, namely the new management. Matt Williams is a very capable manager, but it is his first year - Mike Matheny went 88-74 in his first year and then won the pennant with almost the exact same team. I see that happening with the Nats. The rotation is arguably the strongest in the NL between Strasburg, Gio, Zim, newly acquired Fister, and Detwiler.

Strasburg and Detwiler had some injury issues last season, so if they stay healthy then I think they will go far. On the offensive side of the ball, the Nats can rake. They were third in the NL in overall home runs (161), and if you take away Gio Gonzalez's one home run, they are first in the NL in non-pitcher home runs (160). Between Zimmerman, Werth, Harper, and sometimes Ian Desmond, these fellas score a lot of runs, but their team OBP was .313, only 8th in the league. If everyone's healthy, I expect to see them as a Wild Card and my guess at their record could be wildly wrong.

3. Philadelphia 75-87
The Phillies had a very disappointing year, ending ultimately with the termination of Charlie Manuel. The senior circuit will continue this year in the town of Brotherly Love: with signing Marlon Byrd (age 36) to two years, AJ  Burnett (age 37) to a one year deal, and Carlos Ruiz (age 35) to a three-year deal this offseason, they got good players but not any younger. Ryan Howard will be back from his season-ending injury, which is great, but again, he's no spring chicken and he strikes out a lot. 

The average age of the Phillies last year was 30.1 years old (28.5-year old 25-man roster). Again, high talent, but also high age. They'll be great for spurts, but ultimately, injuries and fatigue will catch up to them.

4. Miami 68-94
Last year's 100-loss team will improve slightly. They ended the season on a bright note, no-hitting the Tigers and winning on a walkoff wild pitch. They have a strong young core led by reigning ROY Jose Fernandez and defensive whiz Adeiny Hechavarria.

The Fish also had a tremendous offseason, signing Rafael Furcal, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Garrett Jones. Mike Redmond knows what he's doing down in Miami, and now that he has the players to back him up (at least more so than last year). Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick will get more reps and see their averages go up, not a lot, but enough. Right now, here's what I peg their starting lineup to look like: Furcal 2B, Yelich CF, Stanton RF, Jones 1B, Salty C, Ozuna LF, Polanco/Lucas 3B, Hech SS, Pitcher. Not bad at all - a lot of growth to be done. Jones will provide useful protection for Stanton, so his average will shoot back up to his 2012 All-Star campaign of .290. The rotation is decent, again, extremely young, featuring Fernandez, Turner, Eovaldi, and Alvarez. The average age of these four is exactly 22 years old. It won't be the Marlins year, but in four or five years, look out. 

5. New York 60-102
Unfortunately, the Mets took a step back this season and probably won't have much hope to compete this year. Missing Matt Harvey is a huge blow, and quasi-rookie Zach Wheeler will have to step up. He went 7-5 last year which is solid, but he'll have to throw a lot of innings this year, which I know Terry Collins won't like (because that's exactly what happened to Harvey). Now, anemic pitching staff aside, they are regaining Captain America (David Wright) and newly acquired Curtis Granderson.

I think Grandy is an awesome player, but his uppercut swing inside of the quite spacious Citi Field will result in a lot of long fly balls and warning track power. After playing in the little league Yankee Stadium for a few years, he's conditioned to getting under the ball more than he probably should. His defense will shine in the green pastures of Queens, but his average will suffer (again). Travis d'Arnaud, the young but injury-ridden catcher, will take the starting role now that John Buck has left New York. Ike Davis likely will lose his job to Josh Satin, therefore rounding out the infield with Daniel Murphy and Omar Quintanilla up the middle. I may be blowing their age out of proportion and underestimating Wright's ability to win games, but this year won't be pretty.