Will We Ever See a Unanimous Hall of Famer?

With the 2014 Induction come and gone, I started to look at the three players inducted and the percentage of the vote they received. Maddux, who won 4 straight Cy Young awards from '92-'95, received 555/571 (97.2%). Fellow Brave Tom Glavine received 525 votes, good enough for 91.9% of the voters, and surprisingly enough, the Big Hurt Frank Thomas only got 83.7% of the votes in his first time on the ballot. 

Between last summer and my crazy baseball brain now, I've always wondered: will we ever see a unanimous selection for the Hall of Fame? Some writers have already disclosed to the media that they will not vote for anyone who played in the steroid era. Though I disagree with that, I do understand the thought process and the necessity for purifying the era (however, remember my post from about a month ago that preached that we don't live in the steroid era, we live in the Hall of Fame era). Then there are other writers who will argue that certain players don't deserve to be first-ballot Hall of Famers. At the Hall of Fame, there is no denotation whether or not someone was a first-ballot inductee or a last ballot inductee, so why does it matter? Hall of Famer is a Hall of Famer, regardless of the year they were inducted. Inducted means inducted, and anyone who visits the Hall of Fame knows that some players are just better than others, that's a fact. 

Of course now that I wrote that, I guess I'm contradicting myself - why does it matter if someone is elected unanimously or not? 

I'll tell you why: because some players are that good. 

Tom Seaver of the 1992 class is the reigning champion for percentage of votes received with 98.8% (Nolan Ryan also got 98.8% but with rounding and conversion rates and sigfigs, Seaver wins out). The thing is, with his 3 Cy Young awards, Rookie of the Year, and 311 wins, Greg Maddux is a better pitcher with 4 Cy Youngs and 355 wins (a lot of the more specific stats like ERA and WHIP belong to Seaver), at least on paper he is. But Maddux only received 97.2% of the vote (only, ha) - is that circumstantial? Personally, I believe so. If you put Maddux in the Seaver era with the same stats, Maddux might have gotten 98.8%. So it will be very hard for anyone in the near future to be elected unanimously given the steroid era, but this is the man that has the best shot:

Randy Johnson
Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux (sorry to keep referring to Maddux, I just think he's a good basis for example and comparison for the upcoming years of Hall of Famers) are incredibly similar pitchers, except for Johnson's gory strikeout numbers. Johnson's ERA is .13 worse than Maddux's (though Johnson actually allowed fewer earned runs in his career) and Johnson's WHIP is .03 worse than his. In that regard, they are similar pitchers. Not a lot of people ever made solid contact and they did not walk a lot of batters. Here's where Maddux has an edge: he has 52 more wins and almost 1,000 more innings pitched. Decent edge. Here's where Johnson blows Maddux away: one more Cy Young award (Johnson also has 4 consecutive), 2nd all-time in strikeouts and 1st all-time in strikeouts per 9 innings. He has the same hardware as Maddux (plus a World Series co-MVP) and the power numbers of Nolan Ryan, who never won a Cy Young. Judging by his low WHIP and high K/9, Johnson combined the finesse of Maddux and the power of Nolan Ryan, all from the low left arm slot which made it nearly impossible to hit (just ask John Kruk). He's got the hardware, he's got the stats, he's got a ring (Maddux did win 18 Gold Gloves - that's hard to beat). If I were a writer, I can't find a good enough reason to justify not voting for him. Look at these batting averages against him:

• Rickey Henderson: .115, 30 K's in 61 AB
• Adrian Beltre: .219, 19 K's in 64 AB
• Frank Thomas: .233, 18 K's in 43 AB
• Roberto Alomar: .220, 13 K's in 41 AB
• Jim Thome, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn: .111 average 
• Andre Dawson: .133

These are Hall of Famers (or soon to be Hall of Famers). The dude didn't mess around. Although lucky for him, he never had to face Don Kelly. 

To be honest, I don't think we'll see anyone inducted unanimously in my lifetime. There's always a couple people who will prevent that from happening. But if I were to guess, Johnson would be it. Here's a picture of the lanky 6'10" Big Unit at USC just because Google is awesome.

Thanks for reading. 

Bonds and Clemens

In yesterday's post about the All New Jersey team, I had to compare Joe Medwick's 1937 OPS to Barry Bonds' career OPS of 1.051, and I was searching around Barry Bonds' Baseball Reference page and was just blown away. I texted my good friend telling him that it breaks my heart that Barry Bonds is surrounded by controversy. Bonds did use steroids, but it was his personal trainer that give them to him and they were banned a few years after his ingestion. The problem lies with the investigation when Bonds went to federal trial for accounts of perjury and obstruction of justice. That he even had to go to trial tells the writers and voters that with this whole conflict, Barry Bonds shot himself in the foot at being voted into the Hall of Fame. Especially now with the ballot eligibility shortened to 10 years, he may be on his way out (he's gotten ~35% of the vote the past two years - you need 75%). I think down the road, the air will be cleared and the Era Based Committee will vote him in, but for now, I'm going to argue that even before Bonds allegedly began using steroids, he would have been a Hall of Famer - it was the way he handled the controversy and investigations where he lost it all.

In the Hall of Fame museum in Cooperstown, the only thing dedicated to Barry Bonds is his 756th home run ball. It sits quietly in a small 2 foot case with an asterisk written on it. The Hall of Fame rarely shows things that have writing/autographs on them, but there's a historical obligation to show this ball. The fact that it sits right behind the Hank Aaron room (that's right, room) goes to show that Hank Aaron is still considered the bona fide home run king. Many people will just meander past it to go see the no-hitter artifacts and won't even realize that Bonds is represented. 

Let's say Bonds played the HOF-eligible minimum ten seasons and was only in San Francisco for a few years rather than most of his career. With this qualifier, he would have played 10 seasons (1986-1996), giving us a wide margin before he even considered using steroids. Here's what we have to work with: .288/.404/.548, 334 HR, 993 RBI, 1595 hits, 380 steals - and here's where it gets good: 3 MVP awards (in 4 years, with another runner up), 6 Gold Gloves, 6 Silver Sluggers, 6 All Stars. Even in ten years, he's a member of the 300-300 club, something only 8 other players have done (none in such a short amount of time). 334 home runs would still allow him to crack the top 100 (even higher if it were still 1996), and 3 MVPs is more than a heck of a lot of Hall of Famers have. Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Yogi Berra, Mike Schmidt, and Jimmie Foxx have 3, Frank Thomas, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Cal Ripken, Robin Yount, and Frank Robinson both have 2. I'm not saying Barry Bonds is better than these players, but when you look at this problem mathematically, he is. The Hall of Fame accepts the top 1.8% of all players ever to have a major league at-bat or defensive inning, and only a handful have multiple MVPs. Even fewer have this many MVPs in 10 years. I think he was a shoo-in and threw it all away.

Here's a fun video of former Pirates manager Jim Leyland cussing out a rookie Barry Bonds (warning - lots of bad language).

The same goes for Clemens, whose rookie year was two years earlier than Bonds'. We'll stop his career at 1996 as well, his last year with Boston. Here's what we are working with: 

• 192-111
• 3.06 ERA
• 38 shutouts
• 2,590 strikeouts
• 1.158 WHIP
• 3 CYA, an MVP, and CYA runner up
• He also had 2 20-strikeout games, once in 1986 and once in 1996

Wow. He had 7 CYA in his entire career, but 3 would put him T3rd all time with schmucks like Tom Seaver and Sandy Koufax. His 3.06 ERA and 38 shutouts would be in the top 40 of Hall of Famers (of 72), and just below the average HOF ERA of 2.97 and 41 (respectively), especially in an era of baseball that shutouts are so rare. His 2,590 strikeouts would put him 15th among Hall of Fame pitchers. 

But the problem is, Clemens was an absolute jerk when it came to his steroids investigation. Uncooperative, immature, and just plain rude - Clemens made no friends during his investigation. He used steroids and lied about it. The first part is forgivable (maybe not so much that he's worth the HOF), but the second part is not. When the writers are asked to cast their ballots, they look at the character and quality of the person as well as on-the-field stats. I think that's what would cost Clemens his spot in Cooperstown. Even though he would still be there if he retired after his time in Beantown.

Like I said earlier, it breaks my heart. These two guys had such supreme talent that they reigned over baseball - Clemens from '86 to '91 and Bonds from '90 to '95 - and swept up all the great postseason awards. But they threw it away. Not with using steroids - but how they reacted to it afterwards. Kids - be honest.

Thanks for reading. 

The All New Jersey Team

A couple weeks back, I did the All Michigan team, ranking (what I thought) the best players to ever come from the great state of Michigan. I had a lot of fun researching and writing that particular post so tonight's will be the All New Jersey team (my roommate is from New Jersey, hence the randomness). Here we go!

Left field: 1937 Joe Medwick (.374, 237 hits (56 doubles), 154 RBI, 406 total bases, MVP) 
Hall of Famer Medwick began his career with the Gashouse Gang in the early 30's, winning a World Series with the team in 1934. Medwick made his first All-Star team that year and went on to finish with a .319 average. Fast forward three years and Medwick had the best year of his career and arguably one of the best seasons of the 1930s with a .374 average, making him an easy choice for the MVP award. Medwick slugged 31 home runs, scored 111 runs, and had an OPS of 1.056 - to put that in perspective, Barry Bonds had a career OPS of 1.051. Medwick finished with a career average of .324, but I will take his 1937 campaign to put him in left.

Centerfield: Rookie Mike Trout (2012: 49 steals, 129 runs, .326 avg, .963 OPS, .993 field%)
Future Hall of Famer Mike Trout stole the stage of the baseball world in his rookie season two years ago. No one played the game with a combination such hustle and production on both sides of the ball as he did that entire year (and probably still now). He won the Silver Slugger, Rookie of the Year, an All-Star selection, and was the MVP runner-up to Miguel Cabrera's Triple Crown season. Trout's ability to steal bases, hit the ball out of the park, and track down nearly any ball in the gaps in center make him a lethal addition to the Jersey team.

Right field: 2010 Jason Heyward (.277 avg. ROY runner up, 18 HR, 72 RBI)
When I was a junior in high school, our baseball team took a spring break trip to Myrtle Beach to play some games at the Ripken Baseball complex. On one of our off nights, we went to see a Myrtle Beach Pelicans game, and at that time, the Braves' High A club boasted Baseball America's #5 prospect in Jason Heyward. Heyward, a 6'5", 245 lb hulk of a man, carried a lot of expectations on his shoulders, and boy did he deliver. He hit the biggest home run that I have ever seen. TicketReturn.com Field's right field wall sits a comfy 308' away, and when the ball cleared the fence, it was still rising. Maybe I romanticize it a little, like "the fish was this big," but still. The ball was sailing hundreds of feet away into the warm and sticky South Carolina night as a bevy of young baseball players erupted from their seats in awe. Since his time in the majors, Heyward has underperformed in my opinion with a career average of .260 and respectable power, but he always takes good at-bats and usually strikes out at a low(ish) rate. 

Fourth outfielder/pinch runner: 1891 Billy Hamilton (111 steals, .340 avg, 141 runs)
I know baseball was a different game before the turn of the century, but you can't refuse numbers like this. Hamilton was a career .344 hitter and even hit above .400 in 1893, but as a pinch runner, I just want his best speed available. They always say you can't teach speed - that's fine, but I can have it on my team. Can you imagine Trout and Hamilton on the basepaths togethers? I don't care who is catching, that is a nightmare. Or - can you imagine Billy Hamilton and current Billy Hamilton? Dear God.

Third basemen: 2008 Mark DeRosa (.285 avg., 103 runs, 21 HR, .857 OPS)
DeRosa is a great role player that every team needs. Currently, of our four outfielders, 2 are Hall of Famers and a third will probably be in once all is said and done - a role player here and there is okay. DeRosa never won any awards, never went to an All Star game, but when you play 16 years in the MLB, you're doing something right. 2008 DeRosa was a veteran power hitter for the NLCS bound Cubbies, and the best thing is, you know exactly what you're going to get from him - he hit 2 grand slams that year! He also hit .091 on turf. As long as the stadium is natural grass, we're good. 

Shortstop: 1999 Derek Jeter (.349 avg., 219 hits, 134 runs, .989 OPS)
You can't go wrong with Derek Jeter, you really can't (you all know how I feel about Jeter), but it was just a matter of which year. 1999 was a great year all around, not only did he have his most hits and best average of his career, but he was an All-Star and the Yankees won the World Series - he also did not miss a game. As a young 25 year-old patrolling the middle of the diamond, I think the All NJ team will be more than happy. 

Second basemen: 1996 Eric Young (All-Star, 53 steals, .324 avg., 184 hits)
EY is a steal at this position. As a career .283 hitter and base stealer, he'll make a great double play partner with Derek Jeter across second base. He'll also provide a number of distractions on the basepaths with his speed and clutch hitting (.299 avg. in one run games). This was his career year - we'd love to have it. 

First basemen: 1959 Joe Cunningham (.345 avg., .453 OBP, All Star)
Cunningham's lone All-Star selection was this year (obviously, with an average that high). Like DeRosa, Cunningham is a sturdy, solid all-around player. With a .291 career average for the White Sox, Cardinals, and Senators, he'll most likely have to be a defensive convert. Cunningham played the majority of his games in right field in his career, though he did become a full time first basemen late in his career. 

Catcher: 1940 Frankie Hayes (.308 avg., 16 home runs)
Frankie Hayes was never an amazing offensive catcher (career .259 average), but those are rare. That's why we are taking his best offensive year of 1940 (typically you want a catcher for defense, but he allowed the most stolen bases and committed the most errors among catchers that year). Hayes played for numerous teams in his career, and the NJ team will gladly take him along.

Pitching staff: 

• 1956 Don Newcombe: CYA, MVP, 27-7, 3.06 ERA, .989 WHIP
• 1998 Al Leiter: 17-6, 2.47 ERA, 1.150 ERA
• 1971 Al Downing: 20-9, 5 shutouts, 2.68 ERA, 262 IP
• 1938 Johnny Vander Meer: 15-10, 3 shutouts, 2 no hitters, 3.12 ERA
• 2009 Andrew Bailey (closer): ROY, 26 saves, .876 WHIP, 1.84 ERA

Manager: Jack McKeon 

McKeon won the World Series with the 2003 Marlins and also won Manager of the Year in 1999 and 2003. At a 1051-990 record, he'll be a great leader for our talented roster. 

Now for the batting order. This is tough. Trout, Jeter, Heyward, Hamilton, and Eric Young theoretically could lead off, and we also have a lot of right handed hitters. Here's my best shot at it:

1. Jeter

2. Young

3. Trout

4. Medwick

5. Heyward

6. Cunningham

7. DeRosa

8. Cunningham

9. Pitcher spot

Heck, Jack McKeon, I could manage this team, look at that batting order (just kidding). And the name of the team....the Jersey Boys. 

Thanks for reading.

Worst Rookie of the Year?

In light of my recent posts and my apparent inability to predict any award winners or division winners, my curiosity took me on a journey through past award winners, and it got me thinking: who is the worst Rookie of the Year? This question is not asking who had the worst stats and still won the award, this question is asking who went on to have the most disappointing career after winning such a prestigious award. Winning the Rookie of the Year not only means you are the best new player (not all rookies are new entirely, e.g. any of the winners coming from Japan), but it also means you are expected to have an illustrious career (at least it does to me). Since the award's inception in 1947, only 6 AL players and 8 NL players have been inducted into the Hall of Fame, so why do I put so much useless pressure on the winners to perform later in their career? That's a question not for this blog.

Anyway, my original question: what Rookie of the Year winner had the worst career? I'll go by league and give a 3rd, 2nd, and 1st place finishing. 

AL, 3rd Place: Pat Listach, Milwaukee (they were AL before realignment)

Listach was a hot shortstop prospect for the Brewers. Coming Arizona State, an institution that has produced Dustin Pedroia, Barry Bonds, and Phil Mickelson, it is a shock that Listach crashed and burned so quickly. His first year, 1992,  boasted a .290 average, a .354 OBP, and 54 stolen bases in 149 games, good for him! Afterwards, Listach suffered from nasty injuries like a broken foot and a number of knee problems, which resulted in his playing time dwindle and productivity disappear. In '93, he only appeared in 98 games, and only 16 games in '94. He would never play a whole season again. It wasn't so much that Listach was a bad player, because when he wasn't injured, he was quite successful (hit .296 in those 16 games), it was that he was more unlucky than anything else. He now coaches third base for the Astros.

AL 2nd place: Bob Hamelin, Kansas City

The year following Listach's rookie campaign saw another bright hitter come to Kansas City in Bob Hamelin. Hamelin, a UCLA draft pick, was a first basemen who only hit .224 in his first 49 at-bats in 1991 and then hit .282 in his official rookie year. Like Listach, Hamelin only played 6 years, but he did not suffer from injuries - he just couldn't hit. In the encore of his ROY season, Hamelin only hit .168. He perked up a bit when he went to Detroit, hitting .270 in 110 games, and then disappeared again in Milwaukee, only hitting .219 in 109 games. Sorry Bob. 

The American League Worst Rookie of the Year: Angel Berroa, Kansas City

Berroa, a native of the Dominican Republic, debuted with Kansas City in 2001 at the age of 23. He only appeared in 15 games, gathering 16 hits in 53 at-bats. Because the MLB rookie qualifications require a minimum of 75 at-bats, he was not technically a rookie until two years later in 2003 (he hit .227 in exactly 75 at-bats in 2002). In '03 (the same year my Tigers lost 119 games), Berroa began a lukewarm string of production from shortstop for the next 4 years with the Royals. He won the ROY hitting .287 with 17 home runs and 92 runs scored in 158 games for the Royals. For the rest of his career, his average would decrease. He hit .262 in 2004, .270 in 2005, and kept dipping and dipping until he hit .143 with the Yankees and Mets in 2009. Berroa only played 9 years, was never selected to an All-Star Game, and struck out 4 times for every walk he took. Not pretty. From 2006 to the end of his career, he only hit .163. Angel will call me Satan, but he is the worst AL Rookie of the Year.

I'll do the NL tomorrow, I am quite exhausted. And I also feel bad highlighting these guys simply because they didn't pan out - I mean no harm, I was just interested in how winning such a great award would pressurize a young career. I think we've been spoiled the last few years considering the AL award winners have been Trout, Verlander, Pedroia, Evan Longoria, etc...guys that have not only produced their first year but have continued to produce with All-Star Games, MVPs, and World Series rings. The NL should be interesting tomorrow. Thanks for reading. 

 

Reviewing the 85th All-Star Game

Wow. That was fun, right? With the 85th MLB All-Star Game in the books, let's get to looking at all the fun stats of the night and the good, the bad, and the quiet players.

As a Tigers fan: let's hear it for Cabrera hitting the home run and Scherzer getting the win. And Kinsler striking out against Kimbrel. 

As an American League fan: yahoo!

Now here are some my favorite random stats:

• Only three NL pitchers allowed hits, only 2 (Wainwright and Neshek, both Cardinals) allowed runs. 6 AL pitchers allowed hits. Neshek leaves the game with the loss and an ERA of 54.00 after entering the game with a .70 ERA, best in NL relievers.
• Only Sox gave up runs for the AL (Jon Lester, Red; Chris Sale, White). Sale also hit the only batter of the game (Chase Utley).
• Jeter, Trout, and Cabrera combined for the cycle.
• 5 Cubans played in this game.
• Neither Adrian Beltre, Todd Frazier, nor Jose Altuve had at-bats, Kurt Suzuki did not have a plate appearance. 
• Koji Uehara did not throw a ball.
• The Padres and Rays' representatives did not play; the only 2 teams not to be represented with game action.
• The Cubs went 0-2 with 2 K's. The Mariners and Orioles went 0-4 with 2 K's. 
• The Brewers went 4-7 with a run and 2 RBIs. 

Now on to more individual efforts...

The Good:

Other than Trout (2-3, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, MVP), Cabrera (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), and Jeter (2-2, 2B), many other players showed the country why they deserved to be an All-Star. 

• Jonathan Lucroy: The Brewers catcher filled in for the injured Yadier Molina and proved why he should have started in the first place. Hitting .315 through 88 games for first place Milwaukee, Lucroy batted 8th for the NL and slapped a pair of doubles to both power alleys, one off of Jon Lester and the other off of reigning AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. Fellow starting Brewer Aramis Ramirez collected 2 hits in 3 at-bats. 

  

  Courtesy of MLB on Facebook.

• The Dodgers pitchers: Clayton Kershaw, taking a 41-inning scoreless streak into the game, pitched a perfect inning in the 2nd, throwing 12 pitches and striking out Josh Donaldson. Zack Grienke followed his footsteps in the 4th and struck out 2 in a perfect inning. 

  

  Grienke in the 4th inning. Courtesy of MLB on Facebook. 

• The Braves: Kimbrel struck out the side (did we expect anything else?), though he did allow a baserunner on teammate Freddie Freeman's error (tough error to take, the ball was a missile off the bat off Alexei Ramirez). Freeman then redeemed himself with a base hit and great stretch to rob Michael Brantley of a hit.

  

  Courtesy of the Braves on Instagram.

• Glen Perkins: The hometown closer pitched a perfect 9th to battery mate Kurt Suzuki, a nice gesture by John Farrell to give the home crowd a good one to end on. Perkins got out Miguel Montero, struck out Josh Harrison, and then retired Charlie Blackmon on an easy grounder to the right side to assure AL victory and home field advantage. He's my fantasy closer for a reason, people!
• Jose Altuve: The deserving AL starter at 2nd base didn't have an official at-bat but did record a sac fly and a nice play to throw out Dee Gordon at first. Gordon, known for relentless speed, softly batted a ball towards second base. Altuve ranged to his right, made a nice backhanded play and threw off balance to nab Gordon by a step and keep his threat off the basepaths. 

  

  Altuve congratulated in the AL dugout after his sac fly and only plate appearance. Courtesy of MLB on Facebook. 

The Bad

• Yasiel Puig: I know I've said I'm not a Puig fan, but I can't help but feel bad a little bit for him during his first All-Star break. On Monday night at the Home Run Derby, he failed to hit a ball over the fence and was eliminated in the first round of play. The Cuban defector couldn't wake up from the nightmare, striking out three times (King Felix, Scherzer, Darvish) in the All-Star Game and misplaying a fly ball off of the bat of Mike Trout that resulted in a triple for the eventual MVP. Granted, the sun was right in his face and I think that he thought he had a beat on it, but the ball sailed over his glove, ricocheted off the wall and centerfielder Andrew McCutchen had to come over to throw it in. 
• Robinson Cano: Reunited with former teammate Derek Jeter up the middle, Cano played respectable defense but was a non-threat at the plate, striking out twice (once against a 56-foot Wainwright breaking ball) and leaving two men on. 
• The Oakland offense: The A's had more representatives than anyone else (4 hitters, 2 pitchers) and while Sean Doolittle and Scott Kazmir both pitched scoreless innings, the Oakland batters were pretty quiet.  Considering Oakland's game and 59 wins come from OBP and situational hitting, it's not a shock that we didn't see any fireworks from the green and yellow. They are 9th in the AL in team average but 2nd in runs, so they win as a team - but not as individuals. Derek Norris, Brandon Moss, Josh Donaldson, and Yoenis Cespedes combined to go 1-7 with 3 K's. 
• The Cubs offense: Both Castro and NL vote-in winner Anthony Rizzo came on to bat in the top of the 8th. Both struck out without taking a ball.

The Silent

With Derek Jeter overshadowing a lot of the game (rightfully so), many players went unnoticed, especially in the late innings. The Padres and Rays didn't even get to see their reps play, so I guess this is better than nothing. (?)

• The Dbacks: Goldschmidt got the start at first, and went 0-3 with a K and left two men on base. Not only that but he swung very early in the count and was out before we realized he was up. Miguel Montero did the same thing, coming on to catch in the bottom of the 8th and having a very quick at-bat in the top of the 9th.
• Tony Watson: 1 pitch, 1 out, 1 All-Star appearance.
• The Royals: Starter Salvador Perez played 3 innings and called a good game for Hernandez, Lester, and Darvish. He also weakly grounded out to Aramis Ramirez off of Clayton Kershaw. Greg Holland also came in and pitched a perfect inning with a strikeout, but since Fox was interviewing AL manager John Farrell at the time, he got no recognition. 
• The Orioles: Adam Jones fouled out against Kershaw and struck out later, Nelson Cruz struck out against Kershaw and popped out later. Again, very fast at-bats and they were out before they were in. 

It was an awesome All-Star Game - I enjoyed every minute of it! Trout deserved the MVP with his two extra base hits, though I was puzzled that Jeter didn't get it when last year Rivera earned MVP for pitching a 1-2-3 8th inning at Citi Field. Not my place to argue - it was definitely one to remember. Thanks for reading! 

The Future of David Price

It is the best week of the year for baseball fans: All Star Week. 

Maybe not the best week; Opening Day and the World Series are just as good, but for me, I can't get enough of the All Star Game. It's the one week we put divisional differences aside and root just for the league to win. For example, last year, Jason Kipnis came up to bat in the top of the 8th at Citi Field with two outs and I was cheering him on - what Tigers fan cheers on the Indians other than the All Star Game (Sorry Indians fans, I deeply down do love you). But this post is not about the All Star Game, it is about what comes after, both shortly down the road and miles down the highway so far that we can only hypothesize. Two questions: A) Where will David Price finish this season? and 2) Will he reach 3,000 strikeouts in his career? 

Let's look at this first one. Last week, Rays beat writer and Tampa Bay Times journalist Marc Topkin tweeted during the Rays Sunday night game vs. the Tigers saying there were a number of team scouts in attendance to see David Price: Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers, Angels, Mariners, and Brewers. All of these teams are in the hunt for a playoff spot; only the Dodgers and Brewers sit in first place right now. I'm guessing that the Dodgers aren't serious contenders given their current rotation and a depleted farm system, and yesterday LA Times reporter Dylan Hernandez wrote that the Dodgers wouldn't trade the farm for a top pitcher. If I had Clayton Kershaw and Zack Grienke, I think I would be content too. The top two contenders in my mind are the Blue Jays or Mariners. The Mariners have stepped onto the stage as big spenders willing to wade through big contracts (Robinson Cano) to bring championships to Seattle. Jack Z is a great general manager and could be making a move for Price. Right now, the M's rotation reads: Hernandez, Iwakuma, rookie Roenis Elias, Chris Young, and Brandon Maurer. Great at the top, but if the M's want to not only compete but surpass the A's and Angels in the West, they'll need another arm. The Blue Jays are in the same boat; Mark Buehrle has slowed down considerably and right now in the East, 39-year old RA Dickey, Drew Hutchison, JA Happ, and Marcus Stroman won't be able to hold on against the Orioles hot bats. Those are my two guesses, the latter being highly compelling considering one of the American League's premier pitchers (Price leads the AL with 164 K's) will be shipped off within the same division. The Rays, sitting at 44-53, are not quite out of the running, but not quite in it either. If they are willing to deal Price to the Jays, they will have to face him 2-3 times for the rest of the season (Jays and Rays have 9 games remaining against each other). 

Price is also arbitration eligible after this season, making it likely that regardless of where he goes it will be for a World Series run. Anything after that he will be seeking a lengthy and pricy (wordplay) contract for likely the rest of his pitching days. If Max Scherzer turned down 6/$144 million, Price, who is even better, could be getting 8/$200 million or somewhere in that neighborhood. The Rays probably won't be able to afford that without completely selling out their farm team. Price is making $14 million this year - he'll want, and deserves, much more. As for where he will land after this season, I have no idea. With that much of a contract, there are very few that have those deep of pockets. 

Regardless of where he ends up, David Price is one of the best pitchers in the AL at striking out opposing hitters. Heading into the All Star Break this year, Price is first in the AL with 164 K's and is 3rd in the AL (6th in MLB) with 10.2 Ks/9. Although his record doesn't show it, he's told reporters that he is pitching the best of his career, so the scary thing is he'll only get better with confidence - here's my question?

Will David Price get to 3,000 career strikeouts?

No. 

Price is a former Cy Young Winner and likely will win another, and honestly, I think down the road he will be a Hall of Famer. But he won't get 3,000 strikeouts. 

First things first: only 16 pitchers have ever made it to 3,000 K's, and all of them are Hall of Famers (except for Schilling, Smoltz, and Pedro Martinez, and they all will be eventually). 3KK is hailed as the golden plateau for strikeout pitchers. As a rule of thumb, if you make it there, you'll make it to Cooperstown. 

As I'm writing this, Price has 1,040 career punchouts at age 28 (turning 29 just before September). In the past, Price has maxed out at 218 K's in 224.1 innings pitched. Statistically, he is on pace to strike out more this year than ever before in his career; he's facing more batters, pitching more innings, and throwing more strikes than before. Trusty old Baseball Reference lists Price's 162 game average at 209 strikeouts - we'll use that for the rest of the argument. 

Next season, his age 29 season, he'll most likely be in a new uniform and I don't even want to get into how that would affect it, although currently, Tropicana FIeld is slightly favoring to pitchers. Back to the math - Price needs 1,960 strikeouts to reach the golden 3,000 plateau. Let's say he'll finish with 240 strikeouts - the league leaders have been around there for the last few years. With that, he'll need 1,880 strikeouts. At his average of 209 K's per 162 games, he would need to pitch 8.995 seasons (let's call it 9 seasons) to reach 3,000. Factoring playoff pitching in (30 K's in 9 career games), he'll probably compile another 50 strikeouts in his career. Down to 1,830. Still 8.755 seasons worth of 209 strikeouts away from 3,000. That's already really hard to do, few pitchers can put up 8+ seasons of 200+ strikeouts, and factoring in depreciation, injury, and losing some zip off of his lively fastball. He'll be 37, nearly 38, if things go according to plan. The 5 pitchers with the fewest amount over 3,000 K's (Jenkins, Martinez, Gibson, Schilling, Smoltz [granted he was a closer for awhile]), none of them struck out 200 for 8 seasons straight. They all had one season that was an outlier from the rest of their career (Pedro's 313 in 1998, holy cow), so Price will have to flirt with 260 or 270 if he wants to chase 3,000. 

But as I always say, I think he'll trade in a ring for every strikeout he's ever had. That's why I think his future is so exciting. He's an amazing person and a HUGE Vanderbilt fan.

Price pitching a bullpen session in full uniform on the opener of college football last year. 

Hard not to love - especially his dog, Astro!

The cutest little thing this side of the Mississippi! 

Thanks for reading, I know it was a little lengthy and a lot of conjecture. It's fun to think about. Have a great Monday!

Grading My Awards Candidates

Happy 4th of July! I hope everyone had a relaxing and baseball filled weekend; I know I did. The Whitecaps happened to be on the road for the weekend so I was lucky enough to spend it with my awesome family, most of it being in the sun (bad idea). 

But for the sake of carrying on, I figured I would continue with my self-evaluations and do my award winners. Here's how it will work: I'll rehash my guesses, evaluate them and how each player is doing, and then move on to who should win if the season were to end today. I'm not going to project numbers or trade deadlines because that's just too risky. Here we go!

AL MVP:
My guess was Mike Trout. A lot of folks feel that he should have won one of the last two years over Cabrera (listen to anyone on ESPN and they'll say so), and whatever you think, that's fine, go ahead. Trout this year is playing a different game, hitting for more power (20 HR, 23 doubles, .606 slugging) but not stealing as many bases. At a .308 average, it's low for him and his career but still a great average. The Angels are also playing really good baseball right now, but I don't think that's all because of Trout. Pujols and Josh Hamilton are finally producing how the Angels wanted them to and because of that, they are sitting pretty at 50-36 (2nd most wins in the AL). But he shouldn't win MVP. Who should?

Jose Altuve. I can't say enough about this guy. The Astros aren't a great team, yeah, we get that. They won't make the playoff this year, and maybe not for another few years, but man is this guy having a great season. Altuve, just a year older than Trout, currently leads the AL in the following categories: batting average (.338), steals (37), hits (137 - 91 singles, also first), at bats per strikeout (13.8), and defensive putouts (162) for second basemen. It's clear that he is performing on both sides of the game, offensive and defensive, and he won't even get an All-Star selection for it, which means his chances at MVP are low. Granted, those that vote for MVP pay much closer attention to the game than the ASG, so it's possible, but if you take Altuve off the Astros, they would not have 36 wins like they do now. 

NL MVP: 
I went with Goldschmidt, considering he was a snub last year, hitting .302 and leading league in home runs, RBI's, slugging, and total bases. This year, he is right about there again, on pace to surpass his total in doubles, total bases, and average. But he will not win the MVP. 

Tulowitzki will. He is tearing the cover off the ball, and that's not just because he is in the thin Colorado air. He is finally playing up to his full potential and battling through his past few injury-ridden years. In my NL West preview, I wrote "Tulowitzki will produce a ton if he can stay healthy." Look at this me! I know my baseball! Tulo, at the age of 29, is having the best season of his career as well as the best season of a shortstop since Nomar hit .372 10-12 years ago. He leads the entire MLB in average (.350), on-base (.441), and runs (66), and leads the NL in slugging (.608) and fielding percentage! On both sides of the ball, Tulo is playing up to the hype of what his rookie campaign of 2006 showed. 

AL Cy Young: 
I went with David Price in his contract year. Not a bad pick, but Price could be on the move pretty soon which could throw off his game. If he lands with a contender, it could light a fire in his belly and make him pitch even better. Despite his 7-7 record and 3.50 ERA, the 6'6" lefty said last week that he is pitching better now than he did in 2011 (his first Cy Young award year). He leads the league in strikeouts, but also home runs allowed. If he wants a shot at his 2nd piece of hardware. But if the season were to end today, it would be Felix Hernandez.

The beautiful Safeco Field cheering on their king.

The beloved King Felix is back to his filthy ways; he currently boasts a 10-2 record with a 2.11 ERA (AL leader). He also has 145 strikeouts (2nd in MLB), and a .89 WHIP (2nd in MLB, first in AL). There's really not much to say, King Felix never really makes headlines for his great pitching until he shocks the rest of the country by posting numbers like this. 

NL Cy Young: 

Kershaw on the final out of his second career no-hitter.

I picked Kershaw. It's going to be Kershaw. He's 10-2, has a 1.85 ERA, a .870 WHIP, and leads the MLB in K/9 and K/BB ratio, despite only having 115 - it shows how good his control is (only 12 walks allowed). He also threw his second career no-hitter earlier this year, and it wasn't just a no-hitter. It should have been a perfect game if Hanley Ramirez threw the ball cleanly to first. Bill James (statistician extraordinaire) said it was the second greatest game thrown by a pitcher, ever. 0 walks, 15 K's, 79/107 pitches for strikes. Wow. He's only 26, already has 2 CYA, and is well on his way to a third. 

Managers of the Year are hard to predict because its not always the manager that wins the most games. For example, last year Terry Francona led the Indians to 92 wins and won the award when four other teams had the same or more wins than he. So if I were to guess, I'd say Bob Melvin for the A's (I picked Francona) - I know I literally just said that the winningest managers don't always win, but here it should happen. There's winning, and then there's quality winning, and the A's are quality winners. They play beautiful baseball and get production from everyone up and down the lineup as well as the pitching stuff. The addition of Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija (that's a bad Scrabble board) should help bolster their playoff chances. For the NL, I guessed Ryne Sandberg for the what he would do with an aging team. The Phillies are the 2nd worst team in the NL, and I don't care who you are, that won't win any awards. I think Ron Roenicke out in Milwaukee might get it for the same reason Melvin would. Not only do the Brewers lead the NL in wins, but he makes the most out of the role players. Sure, it's easy to win when you have Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez, but Aramis Ramirez and K-Rod are back from the dead, Jonathan Lucroy is having a career year, and Scooter Gennett (heck of a name) is flirting with an All-Star selection. I think it comes down to coaching. 

Now I said earlier that I don't know anything about rookies or prospects, but my ROY picks look really really really really bad right now. I went with Taijuan Walker in the AL - he has pitched in one game. Jose Abreu or Masahiro Tanaka will take it home (Tanaka is also in the CYA discussion, going 12-3 with a 2.27 ERA). For the NL, there isn't much of a race. Gregory Polanco came on strong for the Pirates a few weeks ago, but has been quiet since - he'll have to keep up his .299 average to make a splash. As for right now, I'd have to guess either he or Billy Hamilton, whose .275 average is exceeding expectations, but his speed is so fun to watch. Here's a great article by SBNation's Scott Lindholm on the Rookie of the Year race.

We'll see. Thanks for reading.