More on Ichiro

After my post about Ichiro's Platinum Season, I had a conversation with my friend (okay let's be honest, this is how all these blogs start. From now on, he'll be known as Jon) about Ichiro's career and comparing him to other folks in the Majors and the work they've done. I mentioned in my post that Ichiro has over 2,800 hits in America, and over 4,000 total in professional baseball - and here is where Jon's wisdom set me off again: could Ichiro have surpassed Pete Rose's all-time hits record?

Honestly, I think a lot of it depends. Let's see if I can give you some evidence to make you decide for yourself.

Ichiro's Favor
1. Speed. Pete Rose is known as Charlie Hustle, but Ichiro's left-handedness (3 or 4 fewer feet to run to first), swing style,

Ichiro is already a few steps to first while making contact with the ball. 

and pure speed aided him in getting infield hits. Pete Rose didn't have the speed to beat out a chopper to short, but he did have the hustle to stretch a single into a double. At that point, a hit is already a hit, it's just for slugging percentage. But on any random groundball to the left side, Ichiro has a much better chance at beating it out than Pete Rose because he's faster and has a shorter distance to run. This also made him a stealing threat (led the league in 2001 and is the active leader in steals) while Pete Rose only has 198. 

2. BABIP. BABIP, or batting average on balls in play, is a stat used by sabermetricians to determine a players' effectiveness when they don't strike out. It's useful for guys like Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn, because it seems like they either hit it 450 feet or strike out. BABIP is used to show their average on when they make solid contact. As of 2009, Ichiro's BABIP was insanely higher than the league average on ground balls (.242) and bunts (.441). Ichiro's averages: .305 and .663, respectively. This means out of 1,000 ground balls, Ichiro reaches base safely 63 more times than average Joe. On 1,000 bunts, he reaches 222 more times. On a larger scale, Ichiro's career BABIP is .344 compared to Pete Rose's .319. Ichiro has 453 career infield hits, just around 16% of his hit total.  

3. Age. Ichiro entered the league at age 27, basically his athletic prime. He's still in great shape, but the hits aren't coming in bunches like they used to, and that's to be expected when you hit the dinosaurish landmark 40th birthday in the sporting world. Ichiro has played 2,184 career games in the MLB and has amassed 2,834 hits. In 2,184 games, Pete Rose collected 2,773 hits - 61 fewer hits is about a quarter of a season for these guys. Bear with me, this is where it gets confusing. Through 2,184 games (odd sample, I know, but it's Ichiro's career), Ichiro has 1.297 hits per game compared to Rose's 1.269 hits per game. If you were to adjust Ichiro's debut to match Rose's at age 22 and match their games played, Ichiro would have approximately 100 more hits. Remember, this is strictly mathematical. I took Rose's 3,562 games x 1.269 hits per game to equal 4,520 (he finished with 4,256) versus if Ichiro payed 3,562 games x 1.297 hits per game to equal 4,619 hits. Factor in depreciation, age, pitcher recognition, etc., like with Rose and you're right around 4,300 hits. 

Rose's Favor
1. Speed. I know this was a point for Ichiro, but players lose speed over the years. Like I said before, 16% of his hits in his career are infield hits. If he were to rely on that his whole career, teams would guard against it (reverse shift) or throw pitches up in the zone to make him fly out since he has no home run power. Not to mention he would lose a step or two as he got older and be easier to throw out. While Rose's speed never got him more infield hits, his style stands the test of time while Ichiro's wouldn't.

2. Pitching Quality. Pete Rose was a pure hitter. He didn't care who he faced or what he was throwing, he hit it - he's a .306 career hitter against Hall of Fame pitchers (he faced 22 in his career), including 60-177 off Don Sutton, 42-147 off Juan Marichal, and 35-114 off of Bob Gibson. Now, compare this to Ichiro, who was a teammate of the best pitcher of our generation (Randy Johnson), but is 8-18 against him. Here are some career lows for Ichiro against the studs:

• .262 against Roy Halladay
• .217 against Pedro Martinez
• .200 against Roger Clemens
• .125 against David Price
• .077 against Curt Schilling

That said, Ichiro is .500 against Kershaw and .333 against CC Sabathia, but I think Rose has a serious advantage in this category. See for yourself: Rose vs. pitchers or Ichiro vs. pitchers. 

3. Teammate Protection. Pete Rose played for the Big Red Machine in the height of the Reds' dominance of the NL. In fact, the Reds were the first team ever to have 5 different All-Star Game MVPs (Perez, Griffey, Foster, Morgan, Concepcion) on the same roster, meaning these guys can seriously hit. Pete Rose was the Reds leadoff hitter for all that time, but do you really want to pitch against Joe Morgan (HOF, 2 MVPs), Johnny Bench (HOF, one of the greatest catchers ever), and Tony Perez all in the same inning? No! You're going to go after Rose and get him out as early as possible. That means he'll see plenty of strikes and pitches to hit. Bad news for pitchers: it's Pete Rose. He won't miss. Compare this to Ichiro, who, other than 2001, has been on mostly losing teams. After Ichiro, you have Mike Cameron (.249 career), John Olerud (.295 but no power), and Edgar Martinez, who is a legitimate power threat but grounds into a lot of double plays. I think if I were a pitcher I'd take my chances with this 2-3-4 than Ichiro. Pitch around him. 

So there are my reasons for both sides. Between you and me, though, if Ichiro played in America since his career began at age 20, he would have passed Pete Rose by now. But we can only make guesses at this point. Let's just leave it at this: they're both amazing.

And so are you. Thanks for reading. 

2014 Predictions: NL Central

Holy cow, what a stacked division. I had a tough time figuring this one out. It seems that a lot of divisions are really top heavy, with two or three great teams, and then two or three...other teams, and the NL Central is no exception. Expect the Cardinals to be playing late into the season again. 

NL Central

1. St. Louis 102-60
I have no problem labeling the Cardinals as the only team to win 100 games this year. I think they have the top-to-bottom lineup, a young rotation, a smattering of veteran leadership, and an tactical wizard of a manager in Mike Matheny. The Cardinals didn't make a lot of offseason moves, but they made highly efficient ones. Some of you might be thinking "how is a move efficient, Bill?" Well let me tell you. With the trade of David Freese and Fernando Salas to the Angels for Peter Bourjos, they freed up a spot for rising star Matt Carpenter (.318/.392/.481) at third, allowing newcomer Kolten Wong to start at second. Despite his faux pas in the World Series, the Cardinals have put a lot of stock into him and see a bright future. If he doesn't work out, then Mark Ellis (free agent from the Dodgers) will do a good job filling in. On the other side of second base, shortstop Jhonny Peralta will make his NL debut. To many, Peralta is a delinquent and his 4 year, $52 million contract is a negative incentive for PEDs. I agree to a certain extent with that, but he's paid his dues and I think he knows not to do it again. Also, despite his increased power numbers, Peralta also went through a swing change in the 2013 offseason, creating more of a line drive swing, allowing him to hit .303 before his suspension. His range at shortstop isn't good but the balls he gets to are fielded perfectly; that's why it's smart to have a quick third and second basemen - maybe they can reach some things he won't. Back to the outfield: though seeing perennial all-star Carlos Beltran go to New York was hard, Cardinals fans and administrators have a secret weapon in Oscar Taveras, who is likely to start in right this year. If he doesn't, then Jon Jay will. Either one is a good bet; Jay is a career .293 hitter and has good speed on the base paths. Taveras is an overwhelmingly popular pick for NL ROY. So pick your poison Cardinals. As always, Yadier Molina will be the best catcher in the NL (arguably the whole league now that Joe Mauer is no longer a catcher) again, and lead the team deep into the postseason. The Boston Globe called him a player to build around, and I could not agree more; he's a tactician, a great hitter, and stays out of trouble.

I'll leave you to chew on this: the Cardinals had a run differential last year of +187. Second to whom? The World Champion Red Sox. Don't be surprised if they hit +200 this year. 

2. Cincinnati 94-68
I promise you, even though I didn't pick the people's choice Pittsburgh Pirates to be near the top again, I still have a heart and soul. I think the Reds made better moves to compete. First and foremost, they fired bunt happy manager Dusty Baker and hired pitching coach Bryan Price. Here's why I like this move: A) it's hiring from within so Price knows the system and the players. Chemistry won't be an issue. B) It's not Dusty Baker. Baker is a fine manager, but only in the regular season. He's been graced with some incredibly talented teams (2002 Giants, 2003 Cubs, 2012 Reds) and could only take one pennant in 20 years managing. Now even though they lost Shin Soo Choo, speedster Billy Hamilton is taking his place, and if his average stays healthy, he could make a run at ROY. Rounding out the outfield with Jay Bruce and Chris Heisey, they will be in good shape on both sides of the ball. The infield is defensively sound, but sometimes lacking offensively. 2010 MVP Joey Votto is exempt from that statement with his .314 average and consistently league-leading OBP. Brandon Phillips (Dat Dude)

is a supplier of power, but not a lot of consistency. Despite his trade rumors he will be back in Cincy this year. Cozart and Frazier, hitting .254 and .234 respectively last year, will be the everyday starters on the left side. Cozart went through swing reconstruction this offseason, and I am eager if he can reach his full gap-to-gap potential. Having just signed Homer Bailey to 6 years and $105 million, the Reds are looking into the future, eyeing a title not this year, but definitely before 2020. Surrounding him with Mat Latos, Mike Leake (fantasy steal), and Johnny Cueto makes for a dangerous rotation (good dangerous).

3. Pittsburgh 93-69
I don't even know if its statistically possible to have three teams win 90 games in a season in the same division, but it's happening. Mainly because these three will beat up on the other two remaining teams, but nonetheless, the Pirates are still a great team. Neil Walker is an under-the-radar stud (probably just because he's Don Kelly's brother-in-law), Clint Barmes is a good defender, and Pedro Alvarez broke out last year to lead the NL in home runs. He only hit .233 but that's not what he's paid to do, am I right? Of course I am, that's why you've read this far. Naturally, we will see Cutch produce out of his mind, and young Starling Marte will follow suit and learn a lot. Losing AJ Burnett will hurt, but the signing of Edinson Volquez will bolster that somewhat; last year Burnett went 10-11, Volquez 9-12. He will likely be the 3rd or 4th starter, behind Francisco Liriano (who emerged late in the season as a pitcher who means business), Jeff Locke, and 22-year old Gerrit Cole. Clint Hurdle is an excellent manager, taking a team that batted .245 and sending them to their first playoff seed in over 20 years. They'll be back on the cornrows of MLB '13 The Show coverboy Andrew McCutchen.

4. Chicago 69-93
The outfield in Wrigleyville will look different at the beginning of next season. Not the physical grass, but who's playing there. Last year, it was Soriano, DeJesus, and Schierholtz. This year it will likely be Ryan Sweeney, Junior Lake (who unfortunately sacrificed rookie status last year, otherwise he could have made a run at ROY), and Schierholtz. Chris Coghlan will be roving as a 4th outfielder. Lake is a young injection of energy. Good fielder (came up as a shortstop) and base stealer, but he strikes out far too often to be effective long term. In 64 games in 2013, he struck out 68 times, but he also hit .284. We'll see what hitting coach Bill Mueller has in store for him this year in Arizona. The infield will be the same: Valbuena, Castro, Barney, Rizzo: all defense, little offense. The four of them hit a combined .226, with only Rizzo showing decent power. Having "Bad Scrabble Board" Jeff Samardzija

back as the ace will help matters, otherwise 9-12 Travis Wood is the ace. Jake Arrieta will return from injury, Jason Hammel is a good four starter, with the heavy loser (8-18 in 2013) Edwin Jackson bringing up the rear. Jose Veras (3.02 ERA in 2013) is a great pick up; Cubs fans will enjoy not have Marmol come in to close games, and young Pedro Strop will do swell in the setup role. New manager Rick Renteria will most likely be on a pretty short leash; 4 managers in 8 years, 13 in the last 23 years.

5. Milwaukee 65-97
Last year, the Brewers went 74-88, which wasn't bad considering they lost their best player, Ryan Braun, for a hefty suspension. I do not foresee that being their fortune this year. 'But Carlos Gomez had a career year!' Exactly: a career year. Not a year to change his career. He's a career .255 hitter. Aramis Ramirez, if he stays healthy, will have a little bit of relief since Braun is returning to the clean-up slot. 23-year old shortstop Jean Segura is an incredibly bright spot, batting .294 last season (highest of the non-dopers). Scooter Gennett is another solid young middle infielder, and he'll likely take over for .209 Rickie Weeks, but how much will he be able to hold up throughout the entire season? The pitching staff did add Matt Garza, a much needed ace, but he'll be pitching most of his games against the aforementioned Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates, so his offense will have to show up (not likely). Lyle Overbay will take over at first, and as much as I'd like to say he'll repeat what he did in New York last year (which was still only .240), I don't think they'll get much production out of him. They aren't a terrible team, but they also lost Corey Hart and play in a wicked division. Unfortunately, I don't think Bernie Brewer will be sliding too much this year.

Thanks for reading! Almost done with the divisions!