Grading My Predictions, Pt. II

Now that we all know that I am completely incapable of seeing six months into the future (at least for baseball - six months from now, I predict it will be December), it is time for even further self-deprecation and to look at my NL grades. Here we go. Ugh.

NL East:
My prediction:
1) Atlanta 94-68
2) Washington 90-72
3) Philadelphia 75-87
4) Miami 68-94
5) New York 60-102

Current standings: 
1) Atlanta 44-38
2) Washington 43-38
3) Miami 39-43
4) New York 37-45
5) Philadelphia 36-46

Grade: B

So far, not bad. This division is much closer than most anyone expected, and other than the Phillies being in the bottom, I was just about there. With the losses of Gavin Floyd, Brandon Beachy, and Kris Medlen to injury and the ageless wonder Tim Hudson to the Giants, Atlanta's pitching was in question and Aaron Harang and Julio Teheran have stepped up to fill the gaps, enough to get the ball to Kimbrel so he can be Kimbrel (see my post: Release the Kimbrel). Offensively, no one is having a career year though everyone is producing just about at where they were expected to (Gattis, Freeman, and J. Upton all hitting well). The Nationals, even without Bryce Harper, have continued to compete behind big years from Adam "Back from the Dead" Laroche (.308, 11 HR) and Anthony Rendon (.282, 12 HR). Doug Fister (6-2, 2.83) has proved to be a great acquisition; the team ERA is first in the NL though they just can't hit enough for wins. How about the Marlins? Minus last year's ROY Jose Fernandez, Henderson Alvarez and Nate Eovaldi have stepped up to fill that gap as well as superb team defense from Hechavarria and Ozuna. Stanton (.316, 21 HR, 60 RBI) has been hitting moonshot after moonshot, which is why the Marlins are 3rd in the NL in runs. The Mets have been led by Bartolo Colon's strong pitching with Matt Harvey absent and Zack Wheeler still growing into his role as a starter. The offense is quiet night after night; their .238 team average is 13th in the NL. Curtis Granderson is having another low-average, high strikeout season (as I predicted given the capacity of Citi Field; surprisingly, Daniel Murphy is the Mets' leading hitter. I guessed that the Phillies age was going to be a liability, but not to this extent; their .240 average is 12th in the NL and are 11th in runs with 313. Mike Buchanan is their only starting pitcher who has a record above .500, and he's only 4-3. Cliff Lee is 4-4, Cole Hamels 2-4, and AJ Burnett 5-7. Ben Franklin could come back and pitch, that's always an option.

NL Central
My prediction:
1) St. Louis 102-60
2) Cincinnati 94-68
3) Pittsburgh 93-69
4) Chicago 69-93
5) Milwaukee 65-97

Current standings:
1) Milwaukee 51-33
2) Cincinnati 43-38
3) St. Louis 44-39
4) Pittsburgh 42-40
5) Chicago 34-46

Grade: Something lower than failing
Well, I am a moron. I predicted MIlwaukee to have 65 wins this whole season and they'll get it before the end of July. The Brewers offense is hard to stop; they are 2nd in the NL in runs, hits, average, and home runs; 5 starters have 10+ home runs (Reynolds, Ramirez, Davis, Gomez, Braun) and 3 are batting .300+ (Lucroy, Gennett, Gomez; Ramirez and Braun are just shy). K-Rod is revitalized, leading the league with 27 saves and Kyle Lohse is quietly going 9-2 with a 3.08 ERA. Sorry Brewers. The Reds are right on track, with incredibly impressive first halves from Alfredo Simon (10-3, 2.81) and Johnny Cueto (8-5, 1.88). Newly acquired Devin Mesoraco is hitting .307 and 14 home runs; Joey Votto has the third lowest average on the team and they are still performing well - that's the sign of a playoff team. The Cardinals have been offensively underperforming (team average is 7th in NL, 12th in runs) but a .325 season from Matt Adams and .280 from catcher Yadi Molina put them above .500. Defensively, the Cardinals are second to none (actually they are 4th in team ERA), but Adam Wainwright is having an incredible season, going 10-4 with a 2.01 ERA thus far. The Pirates are also underperforming, perhaps still working off the hangover from their first playoff appearance in 20+ years. Offensively, McCutchen is back hard at work, hitting .314 and Gregory Polanco has been a pleasant surprise, hitting safely in his first 10 games as a rookie when he came up earlier this month. The problem has been the pitching; their 3.79 ERA is 11th in the NL and Francisco Liriano, the one whom many considered to be the Pirates x-factor, has not shown his A-game, going 1-6 with a 4+ ERA so far. The Cubs are the typical heartbreaking Cubs, losing games in miraculous fashion; new acquisition Jose Veras got the yips and was later cut and though ace Jeff Samardzija has a 2.83 ERA, he is only 2-7, because the bats have just been quiet all year. Except for Anthony Rizzo (.282, 17 home runs) and Starlin Castro, only one player is batting above .270. No pitching and no hitting is a bad combination, which is why the Cubs are begrudging owners of the worst NL record - with how impatient Epstein has been with his managers, you begin to wonder how long Rick Renteria will last as skipper.

NL West
My predictions:
1) LA 98-64
2) Arizona 83-79
3) San Francisco 81-81
4) Colorado 72-90
5) 70-92

Current standings: 
1) San Francisco 46-36
1) LA 47-37
3) Colorado 36-46
4) San Diego 35-47
5) Arizona 35-49

My grade: C/C+

The NL West is a weak division. I said in my predictions that the Dodgers could spend the entire season in first place - that was wrong; they've only spent a handful in first place and as of today have caught up with the Giants for a tie for first. Who knows where it will go from here, but it will be hard for the Dodgers to replicate what they did in last year's second half, though Kershaw and Beckett have shown they can shut down any lineup. The Giants don't necessarily lead the league in a lot of offensive categories, but they are up there in all the power numbers (4th in slugging, 1st in triples, 3rd in home runs); it may seem that Bochy is adopting the Earl Weaver style of managing: pitching, defense, and the three-run home run. Colorado is playing just about to my guess - amazing offense, but no pitching. Blackmon, Tulo, Stubbs, and Arenado are all batting .295 or above, and the Rockies lead the MLB in team average at .285 (2nd is Detroit at .276 and then Baltimore at .265 - they're on fire). On the flip side, they rank dead last in team ERA at 4.95, and are in the bottom 5 in nearly every pitching category - I got them right at least.The Padres and Diamondbacks have just played bad baseball; the Padres are the league's worst offense (last in NL in average, on base, slugging, hits, and runs), but have kept the ship upright from good starting pitching from Cashner (2-6, 2.53 ERA, has Samrdzija Syndrome) and Tyson Ross (6-8, 3.18). The Diamondbacks are capable of so much more - I think we'll see a second half surge from them to finish a few games below .500. Aaron Hill, who is on pace to produce the same number of home runs and even more RBI, just isn't getting on base as much for Goldy and Parra to drive in. Like I said, I think they'll turn it around.

Well, I got a few teams right. I hope my lack of vision won't turn you away from reading more!
Thanks for stopping by!

Grading My Predictions (ew)

Top of the morning to you all out there. Between watching way too much of the World Cup and working the Star Wars Night at Fifth Third last night, it slipped past me that the Major League season is exactly half way done. As I write this through the tears that another season is halfway in the books, I thought it would be proper to go back to grade my predictions and award winners this far - and hope that I won't lose all credibility whatsoever.

Here's how it will work: for each division, I will list the records I predicted, the current standings, a grade of my prediction, and a quick rundown of how each team has been playing. Here we go!

AL East:

My guess: 

1) Boston 100-62

2) Tampa Bay 93-69

3) New York 91-71

4) Baltimore 82-80

5) Toronto 72-90

Current standings:

1) Toronto 45-38

2) Baltimore 42-38

3) New York 41-38

4) Boston 37-44

5) Tampa Bay 34-49

Grade: F

Basically flip flop the standings and I'd be right. Behind Buehrle's 10 wins and Encarnacion's crazy power numbers, the Jays are flying right past my prediction. The Orioles have had similar success with Nelson Cruz's power outburst and production from Crush Davis and Adam Jones. The Yankees will probably finish around .500, not 20 games above like I predicted. Injury issues with Beltran and a lack of production from McCann overshadow Tanaka's glowing start. Boston has had injury problems as well with Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino and its hurt. Brock Holt has been a bright replacement but Jackie Bradley Jr. is a big step behind where Jacoby Ellsbury was last year in center. The Rays just can't produce. Though David Price leads the league in strikeouts, the Rays simply can't hit - former ROYs Evan Longoria and Wil Myers are hitting .264 and .227, respectively. James Loney is the team's best hitter at .280 and they are 11th in the AL in team average and home runs. Missing Matt Moore hurts a lot as the Rays starters have the worst win-loss percentage in the AL, despite a team ERA of 3.87. Grant Balfour has been grossly underwhelming with only 10 saves and a bloated ERA of 5.52. The Rays need to turn it around fast.

AL Central:

My predictions: 

1) Detroit 95-67

2) Cleveland 93-69

3) Kansas City 86-76

4) Chicago 71-91

5) Minnesota 69-93

Current standings: 

1) Detroit 44-33

2) Kansas City 41-39

3) Cleveland 39-41

4) Chicago 38-44

5) Minnesota 36-43

My grade: B-

In terms of standings, I wasn't that far off except for switching the Indians and Royals. In terms of records, I overprojected for the top and underprojected the bottom. The Tigers had their annual early season slump, losing 16 of 22 games but have slowly clawed their way back to the top of the the weakest division in the AL behind strong starting pitching and the Martinezes (Victor and JD) just mashing (Victor: .323, 20 home runs, JD: .311, 9 home runs, AL player of the week). Eugenio Suarez has been a pleasant surprise at shortstop filling in for the injured Jose Iglesias, hitting .300 with 3 home runs in 21 games. The Royals are incredibly streaky, winning 10 in a row and then losing 4. Pitching is solid, but their big names need to start hitting - Hosmer (.249), Infante (.244) and Moustakas (.178, also the coolest name in baseball) need to step up for a postseason run. Cleveland is the same story. Cory Kluber and Josh Tomlin have picked up the slack for a quiet Justin Masterson and now Oriole Ubaldo Jimenez, but the team's hitting is weak. Except for Brantley (.321) and Chisenhall (.350), the big names are again coming up short. Swisher (.195), Santana (.209) and Kipnis (.254) need to get hot for the team to make a run. Chicago has had the opposite problem; they mash the ball (scoring 354 runs, 6th in AL) but have allowed the most runs in the AL (389). Alexei Ramirez has found his stroke, hitting .295 and rookie Jose Abreu has lived up to his power hype, slugging .631 and is tied for first in the MLB with 25 dingers is 4th in RBI with 63. The Twins are proving to play spoiler behind big seasons from Brian Dozier, Kurt Suzuki, and starting pitcher Phil Hughes. Joe Mauer's uncharacteristically low .271 average will perk up with Kendrys Morales to protect him and this team could play .500 ball down the stretch when Plouffe comes off the DL.

AL West

My predictions: 

1) Oakland 92-70

2) Texas 90-72

3) LA 81-81

4) Seattle 74-88

5) Houston 57-108

Current standings:

1) Oakland 50-30

2) LA 45-34

3) Seattle 43-38

4) Texas 37-43

5) Houston 35-47

Grade: C-

Well, I got Oakland right. Scott Kazmir (9-3, 2.66) has provided a surprising amount of stability for the starting rotation, allowing Sonny Gray (7-3, 3.20) and Jesse Chavez (6-4, 2.94) to have great seasons. An offensive anomaly, the A's rank 8th in team average (.254) but first in runs (414) - they love the long ball and situational hitting, I suppose. The Angels have perked up considering Pujols is back to Pujols and Trout is hitting for more power despite stealing fewer bases and striking out more. CJ Cron, Colin Cowgill, and Hank Conger are great role playing backups that give Scioscia breathing room if someone gets hurt. With a strong rotation of 3 pitchers boasting 8 wins and a team ERA of 3.87, the Angels will have to hope for the Wild Card given how Oakland is playing. As I predicted, Cano is hitting for a very good average (.316) but little power (4 home runs), but is providing good leadership as Kyle Seager has come out of his shell a little bit. King Felix is King Felix and surprisingly Chris Young is their 2nd best starter (7-4, 3.15); Fernando Rodney is 6th in MLB with 22 saves but is also Fernando Rodney with a WHIP of 1.27. Texas: injuries. Derek Holland, Prince Fielder, Mitch Moreland, Matt Harrison, Tanner Scheppers, Alexi Ogando, Robbie Ross, and Martin Perez have all served or are serving time on the DL. In Beltre we trust (.333, .378, .512). Houston is shocking, considering Jose Altuve is having the best season for any second basemen so far this year (.343, 113 hits, 34 steals). George Springer has also been a bright spot from the minors, showing the farm system is fruitful - Springer leads the team with 15 home runs and 40 RBI in 63 games.

I'll do the National League tomorrow - I don't want to wear you all out (okay, I lied, I'm actually just headed out to go golfing on my day off).

Thanks for reading! 

A Tribute to Mr. Padre

This past week, the baseball world lost a legend. Tony Gwynn, a lifetime San Diego Padre, had one of the purest lefty swings of all time, compiling 3,141 hits in his 20 year career. Gwynn had been the San Diego State University head baseball coach before passing away due to cancer at the heartbreakingly young age of 54. 

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a post about how we are living in the Hall of Fame Era, meaning that we are living in such an amazing era of baseball that we are honored to see some of the greatest players to ever set foot on a diamond. Gwynn, in my mind, kicked off that era. Inducted into the Hall of Fame with Cal Ripken, Jr. in 2007, he was the first class of many to embody not only incredible talent but also sportsmanship, and something still new, technology into the game. 

Gwynn at the 2007 Induction Ceremony in Cooperstown. He was back last year in 2013 - I was probably no more than 15 feet away from him.

If you go to Tony Gwynn's Baseball Reference page, you'll see his nicknames are Mr. Padre (what everyone knows him by) and Captain Video, because he was one of the first players to use video technology to tweak his swing. His wife would sit up in the bleachers with of those massive old school Sony camcorders and film all of his at-bats. After the game, he would sit alone in the clubhouse and watch his swing. What worked, what didn't work, what the pitcher did, his reactions to different pitches, etc. That probably explains why his career high in hits for a season came when he was 37 years old. With technology these days, an entire archive of pitching sequences are available within seconds. A hitter can see his mistakes and his successes side by side for day games, night games, rainy days, sunny days, home or away. Gwynn didn't have that privilege, he manually edited and had to find his own splits. Eventually, the sport would have realized how useful technology can be for improving and training young hitters, but Gwynn expedited the process and set the gold standard for body control through video training. 

Because of his dedication to video training, he is easily one of the most consistent hitters of all time, not just in terms of average (career .338 is T-18th best ever) but also hit location. Gwynn was famous for taking nearly any pitch and lightly serving it out to left field between the shortstop and third basemen. After doing this probably 1500-2000 times in his career, the 5.5 hole was born. On a baseball scorecard where each position is given a number, the shortstop is 6 and the third basemen is 5. For scoring purposes a groundout from short to first looks like 6-3 to show that the shortstop threw it to the first basemen for the put out. So, since Gwynn hit so many right between the two infielders, it became the norm to hit it through the 5.5 hole. On the day of his passing, the Tigers and Mariners' groundskeepers raked a "TG 5.5" and number 19 (respectively) at the part of the dirt where so many of his hits fell. 

Above: Tigers' head groundskeeper Heather Nabozny put this special dirt between short and third the night of his passing against the Royals.
Below: The Mariners honored Gwynn by placing his jersey number 19 at the same spot. 

This 5.5 phenomenon became so popular that Gwynn even had "5.5" on the tongue of his spikes so when he would look down while at the plate, he would be reminded to let the ball travel and push it back to left field. He only hit 135 home runs in his career, which shows how dedicated he was to a good swing rather than a powerful one.

Gwynn was such an amazing hitter. While writing this, I just sat and stared at his hitting consistency and overall ability. These are my favorite highlights:

• His worst year in terms of average was his rookie year, when he hit .289 in 54 games. After that, he never hit below .309. He hit .350 or higher 7 times.
• He compiled more than 200 hits 5 times in his career, led the league 7 times (NL twice, MLB 5 times). His career high of 220 hits in a season came in 1997 - at age 37. 
• Gwynn never struck out in 129 career at-bats against Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddux.
• His career average of .338 is the highest of anyone who's career began after WWII (minimum 5,000 AB).
• He had 7 full seasons where he struck out fewer than 20 times. 
• He had 7 seasons where he had more triples than homers.
• He hit .400 off of eight different Cy Young Winners. 

Jayson Stark has more amazing stats in his article on the late but great Tony Gwynn here.

I said in a post a few months ago that Jeter was the best player without an MVP. Gwynn never won an MVP either, and I think he just overstepped Jeter for being the best without an MVP. At least Jeter has rings, Gwynn only got one pennant in his time in San Diego.

It is a sad, sad day for the baseball world. Tony Gwynn was a classy guy who played the game at a higher level than most we've seen in this generation. It's hard to believe he's gone only at the age of 54. I wish I had been born a few years earlier so I could have really appreciated and understood how pure his hitting really was. 

Rest in peace, Mr. Padre.

J-Roll

Last week, Phillie for life Jimmy Rollins broke Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt's franchise record for hits at 2,235. Rollins, with a weeks worth of games since then, now sits at 2,241 entering play on the 22nd of June. First of all, congratulation J-Roll, whose 5'8", 170 pound frame is in the top 10 of nearly every offensive category in Phillies history. And second, what an amazing moment for he and the Phillies fans to see Mike Schmidt come out and celebrate. 

Courtesy of the Phillies on Instagram. 

On a 3-1 count in the 5th inning, Rollins took a fastball from Cubs starter Edwin Jackson and sent it into right field and also sent Citizens Bank into pandemonium for a new franchise leader. This ESPN article does a nice job recounting his career accomplishments and his place in the Phillies organization. In case you don't want to click on the article, I'll highlight it for you: 

• First in doubles (466)
• Second in: extra base hits (782), total bases (3,540), games (2,015), at-bats (8,331)
• Third in: steals (436), runs (1,281), triples (109) 

And he still has the rest of this year to rise up in the ranks. At age 35, this is probably his final season, but we shall see. He and fellow middle infielder Chase Utley (also 35) have been in double play partners for 11 years in the City of Brotherly Love, so if one goes, they both will. I think they'll both retire Phillies and I also think this won't be their final year. 

Is Jimmy Rollins a Hall of Famer? Unfortunately, I do not think so. He is a great player and has been a tremendous leader for the Phillies, but he's not one of the greatest players to ever win the game. He plays the game the right way and you can tell he respects it, but is he in the top 1% of all time? No. That said, I don't want to leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, here are some of my favorite career highlights of his:

1) The 2008 World Series

The Phillies had not won a World Series since 1980 until this exciting matchup with the miracle Rays. Though Rollins did not necessarily hit at an incredibly high level (.227/.261/.318), he scored 2/3 of the times he was on base. I think that is an amazing stat (as well as a good indication of the Phillies situational hitting) - his leadership at its best.

2) 20-20-20-20

This quad-twenties is another incredibly impressive feat that shows a well-rounded nature to a player's game. In 2007, the same year in which Rollins won his only MVP, he hit 38 doubles, 20 triples, 30 home runs, and stole 41 bases. Only three other players in the history of the game have managed to log at least 20 of each doubles, triples, steals, and home runs (Frank Schulte, Willie Mays, Curtis Granderson) - but what makes this more impressive is that he was the leadoff hitter. He also didn't miss a game. 

3) Once a Phillie, Always a Phillie

J-Roll's rookie year was with the Phillies in 2000. His final year will be with the Phillies. For a guy who was born and raised in Oakland, California, it could have been very easy for him to start with the Phillies and go home back to Oakland or LA, but he stuck with them for his entire career. I love that in players. It's rare nowadays and to be honest, if I were a pro, I would probably want to hop around to whoever would pay me the most / my best chance at a title was. He's seen 5 different managers, but only 2 losing seasons. Just to prove how important he is to the team: the Phillies went 65-97 his rookie year. The year after his best personal season ever they won the World Series - and now that his career is on his way out, so are the Phillies as they are 34-39 going into play today (a lot of this has to do with Ryan Howard, Papelbon, Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, Chooch, etc, but HEY this blog is about J-Roll guys, come on!)

Congratulations, Jimbo Slice. Coming soon - a tribute to the great Mr. Padre, Tony Gwynn. 

Thanks for reading.

Release the Kimbrel

With my recent post about Jonathan Papelbon, I was intrigued by some other closers and was looking into the closers of today. K-Rod is back from the dead, leading the MLB in saves  with 21 going into play today, the Giants Romo is 2nd with 20 and then four are tied with 19; through ~ 70 games, we are on pace to have 6 (maybe 8) closers with 40+ saves, and some people might not even reach 50, which shows that it is not necessarily harder to close games, nor is it that the closers have been worse (1.69 blown saves in 2014 vs. 2.61 blown saves in 2013), its just that there are more blowouts (I think).

Before I get too off topic, I want to talk about a player who has only been in the league for 5 years (2014 is his 5th year), and is already his teams leader in saves and is T71 all time with 158: Craig Kimbrel.

He puts his arm like that because any swinging or swaying while taking signs is a balk.

Kimbrel does another goofy intimidation thing, but when you're this good, you can do whatever you want. You'll remember in my Pap post that I commented on the staredown, but considering that Kimbrel could probably beat me up with his mind, I won't say anything. 

Okay, but Kimbrel though. Go to the Braves Instagram page, or search #ReleasetheKimbrel and you'll see the Ted rocking when this guy comes out in the 9th to slam the door. It's a chilling video and I claim that Kimbrel is the best closer in the game today.

But that's kind of obvious, isn't it? Okay, fine. He has potential to be the best closer we've ever seen.

Kimbrel won Rookie of the Year in 2011 at the young age of 23 along with Trout in the American League, making them some of the highest performing rookies we've seen in a long time (I almost said most talented but all winners of the ROY are talented, so I think this is a better qualifier). Even before his official rookie year in 2010, Kimbrel was 4-0 with a .44 ERA. Wait, what? Yes, a .44 ERA. In 20.2 IP, he allowed one earned run. One. Kimbrel came on in a mop up role (well not quite, they were down 5-1 in the 8th) in May (his third appearance ever) against the Diamondbacks and allowed a run on a walk, steal, sac fly, and single. He still struck out 2. 

Then 2011 rolled around and Kimbrel cemented his spot at the back end of the Braves bullpen. He pitched in 79 games (most relievers throw between 50-60) and recorded 46 saves, most in the NL. He also led the NL in games finished with 64 while posting a 2.10 ERA, a career worst. 

In 2012, he posted a 1.01 ERA, recorded 42 saves (led NL) and had a WHIP of .654. Put differently, he wouldn't allow a hit or a walk for basically every other appearance. Last year, his ERA was worse (1.21) and a WHIP of .881 but recorded more saves (50), which is his career high to date. 

So back to my claim earlier. Let's assume Kimbrel pitches until he is 40 years old, which will allow 18 full seasons in the Major Leagues. Right now, according to Baseball Reference, he is averaging 41 saves a season. Multiply this 18 seasons times 41 saves and you get 738 saves, which would break Mariano Rivera's save record by 86 (two seasons worth). Wow.

I don't want to be Debbie Downer over here, but just for the sake of being realistic, Kimbrel may need Tommy John surgery or could have another type of injury. I do NOT want this to happen at all, I love watching him pitch because he's so dominant and makes even the best hitters quiver, but for just for arguing, let's say he goes down. If he were to go down right now with 19 saves, he would not be able to make it back until the 2015 All-Star Game. So, if he misses the rest of this season, he'll miss out on let's say 25 saves. Career total down to 713. Then with rehab, recovery, and return, he'll miss another half a season, another 25 saves. Career total down to 688, still a full season ahead of Mariano Rivera's all-time record. For another argument, let's say he only plays 15 years, through age 37. 15 seasons x 41 save average is 615, still good enough for second all time. 

If he continues on this torrid pace, not only will he be crazy high on the all-time saves list, but his ERA will one of the best ever. With a 1.45 ERA, he is clearly in the lead for closers and pitchers that have been around for more than just a cup of coffee. But, the minimum qualifier is 1000 innings pitched. Kimbrel only has 254. He'll have to quadruple that (AKA play 20 seasons of sub 2 ERA) to win the career ERA crown. He also could qualify for the WHIP crown, but doesn't have the qualifier. 

His stat lines are just mind blowing. I don't really have much to say about him other than his opportunity to be the greatest closer ever. He's already the Braves saves leader, and only at age 26, the sky is honestly the limit. 

Is there anything he can't do? This picture just says to me, "Hey, I can close games and dress down for a relaxing evening of investing and gin rummy."

Thanks for reading. 

Jonathan Papelbon

Hello everyone, sorry I've been away and haven't posted in a while. The Whitecaps are hosting the Midwest League All-Star Game next week so we've been putting in some long days at the old yard. While I was out, the Phillies' closer Jonathan Papelbon recorded his 300th career save, a truly impressive feat (especially only at the age of 33) that puts him at 24th all time, tied with Jason Isringhausen and Hall of Famer Bruce Sutter. Papelbon, a southern boy who played his college ball at Mississippi State, has served for both the Red Sox and Phillies, winning the 2007 World Series with the Sox over the Rockies in what I call the most boring World Series of the last twenty years (until 2012 but we don't talk about that since the Tigers were in it and got swept). 

Papelbon's memorable reaction after the final out in Game 4 of the 2007 World Series. It was Boston's 2nd title in 4 years.

The 300-save plateau is an elite group of closers. It seems as if that is the magic number for closers in order to be inducted into the Hall of Fame - no closer with fewer than 300 has been inducted (with the exception of Smoltz when his time comes, but he was a hybrid starter/closer). That said, 7 of those 26 with 300 saves are ineligible for the Hall of Fame (5-year retirement period has not passed yet), and of the remaining 19, only 4 have been inducted. So there have been 19 players in history to record 300 saves but only 4 have ever been inducted. Take away the 4 Hall of Famers (Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter), and out of those 15 players, only 4 have ever received more than 1% of the vote. Only 1, Lee Smith, has consistently received more than 5% to remain on the ballot (Hall of Fame voting procedure states that if a player does not receive 5% of the vote, he will not be on the next year's ballot)  - he's been on 11 years and has gotten 50.6% at the most. It's not looking good for him.

It's not looking good for many closers. But here's my case for Papelbon.

• He's still got a few good years ahead of him. Papelbon is only 33 years old and will not turn 34 until November. With 14 saves for the offensively anemic Phillies already, he is on pace for around 40 saves. For the sake of argument, if he notches 40 saves this year, he'll be tied for 14th with 326 saves (I didn't account for K-Rod or Joe Nathan moving up the ranks - too many moving figures for me to count right now). If Bruce Sutter got in with 300 exactly (and a losing record), Papelbon deserves it. Closers can usually last up to their 40th birthday, so he could keep climbing the ladder if his body permits.
• Okay, purely number of saves may not do it for you? How about accolades? He has a World Series ring, which only a handful of the top 26 have (Rivera has like 100). A ring isn't all he got though, he was named the 2007 World Series MVP, recording saves in Games 2, 3, and 4. He was also selected 5 All-Star teams, which may not seem like a lot but he was the rival closer to Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer of all time. Typically, All-Star rosters only will hold 3 or 4 closers (they've been holding a lot more recently), so to be selected (not by fans, either) to 4 straight rosters alongside Mo says a lot about his talent. He was also the runner up in the Rookie of the Year voting to Justin Verlander in 2006.
• Fine, if the accolades aren't doing it for you either, I'll turn to his stat sheet. Papelbon has been one of the most consistent closers of the past 15 years, and frankly I was shocked at how really consistent he has been after looking at his BBR page. He has played between 59-70 games every year, his ERA has been under 3.00 every year except 2010, and has been under 4 every year of his career. After his rookie year, his WHIP has never been higher than 1.2. Even counting his rookie year, he's never been above 1.4 (4 years under 1.00). He's never allowed more than 8 home runs in a year and has yet to allow one this year. Other than 2010, he's never thrown more than 2 wild pitches in a season. Even after a change of scenery and change of leagues, he was not phased and still recorded 38 saves in his first year in a Phillies uniform in 2011.
• Bottom line, career stats: 35-27, 2.36 ERA, 1.035 WHIP, 300 saves. 

He stays out of trouble, he's generally well-liked around the league, and to be honest, except for this "I'm trying really hard to be intimidating" face, 

I really don't have much bad to say about him. 

Now, Pap has blown 41 saves in his career, but comparing to other closers, that isn't all that bad. Rivera blew 72 saves in 19 years, so Papelbon is a little off the pace, but not bad. Dennis Eckersley blew over 70 saves as well, and I think when all is said and done, Pap will be right around 80 blown saves, give or take a few. If he keeps pitching like this year, maybe not (he's doing really well this year). 

He also has never been a finalist for the Cy Young Award or the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award (now to be named the Mariano Rivera Award) for best reliever. Those are the big ones for pitchers and ideally, winning or even placing in the top 5 for the CYA or winning the MRA would really beef up his resume. 

I can't see the future, either. He could completely lose his touch and struggle recording saves like Joe Nathan this year. He also could rack up 50 saves a year if the Phillies offense can produce. 

Through 9.5 years, he has 300 saves. Typically closers last pretty long, so for the sake of argument, if we double his tenure to 19 years (same as Rivera and Trevor Hoffman), which is plausible given his track record of consistency and good health, he (theoretically) should record 600 saves. If he does that, then he's a lock.

It's a mandator skill of Hall of Famers to be able to smoke a stogie. 

Thanks for reading.

The Hall of Fame Era

A couple weeks ago, we got my grandmother a cell phone. As she was programming it, she blurted a phrase that I think is incredibly true, not just for life in general, but especially for baseball: "What a time to be alive."

When I was at the HOF last summer, I learned that if players aren't voted in, they can make it in the Hall on the Era Based Committee. Each different year is dedicated to a different era in which players can get another chance. The three main eras (so far) are pre-integration (beginning to 1947), the Golden Era (1947-1973), and then the now (1973-present). Given that the current era is expanding to more than 40 years, I think its time for a new era.

A lot of writers and baseball purists would label today as the Steroid Era. I mean, it makes perfect sense given the beefy guys like Jose Canseco and Mark McGwire who have owned up to it, and then there are guys like Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds who have fought it tooth and nail to clear their name but no matter what they do, people will blacklist them. In the early 2000s, it seemed that nearly every slugger was dirty (with the exception of Griffey) and unfortunately, nowadays, the big hitters are accused of juicing. Chris Davis's breakout 2013 was questioned, Jose Bautista's breakout 2010 was questioned, heck even Josh Hamilton has been accused sometimes. It all makes sense though, because today's All Stars are yesterday's criminals. Ryan Braun and Nelson Cruz, both of whom are excelling at the plate this year, were suspended last year. Jhonny Peralta, who was suspended last year, signed a $50 million contract; juicers are still alive and well in the game today. 

It may be cheesy, but there has to be bad in the world so the good can shine through. Rather than name this the Steroid Era, however, I think we should call this the Hall of Fame Era. We are living in one of the greatest generations that baseball has ever seen. Within the next few years, we'll be seeing massive induction classes to the Hall of Fame. 

This upcoming induction in July will have six members; three managers (Cox, Torre, La Russa) and three players (Thomas, Glavine, Maddux), the biggest BBWAA class since 1999. In the last 50 years, the BBWAA has elected three players only 5 times - but in the next 5 years, it should happen every year. Just look at these next few years (who I'm listing is who I'm predicting will be inducted):
2015: Randy Johsnon, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Craig Biggio (missed by 2 votes last year)

2016: Ken Griffey, Jr., Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner

2017: Ivan Rodriguez, Vlad Guerrero, Manny Ramirez (if the writers can see past his antics)

2018: Chris Carpenter, Omar Vizquel, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Jim Thome

The players I have listed I think are absolute locks. We aren't even getting into the argument zones, because there are at least ten other players who could make it if the stars align. Guys like Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, and Mike Piazza are all eligible candidates. And then don't even get me started on the players currently. Well, too bad, you got me started.

Here's my list of current players that will be Hall of Fame locks off the top of my head: Don Kelly, Derek Jeter, Big Papi, Miguel Cabrera, Mariano Rivera, Yadier Molina, Adrian Beltre, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Dustin Pedroia, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew McCutchen

Here's my list of players that have a shot: Joe Mauer,  Carlos Gonzalez, David Wright, CC Sabathia, Tim Hudson, Adam Wainwright, David Price, Billy Butler, Joe Nathan, Carlos Beltran

And then there's the young guys who are really good right now but are too young to make a guess: Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, Mike Trout, Jose Fernandez, Chris Sale, Eric Hosmer, Paul Goldschmidt, Buster Posey

Many of you might not believe me, but I didn't even look at stats for these. I just kind of whipped names off the top of my head (okay I looked at rosters to jog my memory), but that just goes to show how great of an era we are in for baseball. Within the next 10-15 years, we'll be seeing most of these guys go in and in the next 20-25 years, even more. The writers have a full ballot ahead of them and the next few induction ceremonies will be packed. 

I'm sure there are players that I missed. I'm also sure there are players on here that don't deserve it. But that's the beauty of baseball and the Hall of Fame, we don't know what will happen. I just think that it's a shame that because a few guys (well, more than a few) wanted to cheat, the entire generation has to be punished for it. That's not right. When I take my grandkids to Cooperstown and point out Jeter, Cabrera, Rivera, Maddux, Johnson, Griffey, etc, they will be hailed as some of the greatest who ever lived. All in this one time period. We get to live through it all. I don't want it to be labeled the Steroid Era - those guys will be remembered for their steroids on their own. Don't label the clean ones that way, too.

My grandma was right. It is a heck of a time to be alive for baseball fans. We're living in a time that has both the biggest hitters and the greatest pitchers. Compare this to the past decades when for the most part it was either one or the other. In the 60's and 70's it was a pitching dominated game. In the 30's and 40's it was a slugger's game. Obviously there are exceptions to every rule, but how many times will we be able to say that we saw both the offensive and defensive triple crown in back to back years? Kershaw and Verlander did it both in 2011 then Cabrera did it on the other side of the ball in 2012. It blows my mind.

What a time to be alive.

Thanks for reading. 

Rest in Peace, Don Zimmer

Yesterday the baseball world lost an icon in Don Zimmer. A Cincinnati native, Zimmer passed away in Florida yesterday after complications from a heart surgery in April. He was still a special assistant to the Rays and was at the ballpark every day. His wife of 63 years survives him. He was 83.

Courtesy of the Rays on Instagram.

Zimmer had been in baseball for 66 years, beginning with his road to the show. His rookie year with the Dodgers in 1954 and from there he would spend time with the Cubs, Reds, Senators (soon to be Rangers) and brand new Mets in 1962. Though Zimmer never was an offensive threat (.235 career average), he was selected to an All-Star game in 1961 with the Cubs. 

After his career as a player, he went on to manage, like many former players do. His managerial career ended just above .500, going 885-858, a winning percentage of .508 and winning Manager of the Year in 1989 with his 93-69 Cubs. 

He spent the rest of his time around baseball coaching and being an assistant, but being in the game for 66 years (79.5% of his lifetime), just think of all the history he not only got to witness firsthand but of which he was a direct part. Even as a rookie, he got to play alongside Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Gil Hodges, and Pee Wee Reese, just to name a few. His 2nd full year in the MLB, as a 24-year old, the Dodgers won a World Series over the crosstown rival Yankees. He was on the Dodgers for when the Dodgers moved to LA and shook the town of New York. With Chicago in the early 60's he got to play with Ernie Banks, Mr. Cub himself, and Hall of Famer Ron Santo, who was then only 20 years old. 

After his short stint in the Windy City, Zimmer was called back to the Big Apple as one of the formative players for the 1962 Mets, the newest franchise on the block. He got to play for Casey Stengel, a managerial legend, and got to kick off a new franchise in his former city. How cool must that have been? He was the original Mets third basemen. Just a few years later he won another World Series ring with the '63 Dodgers, where he got to play behind Sandy Koufax's 25-5 and Don Drysdale's 19-17 seasons (for 22 games at least). And then he was a part of another new organization, the Washington Senators. Their first season was 1961 and Zimmer came to join the team shortly thereafter for the last half of the 1963 season. 

He saw even more history as a coach. Four World Series wins with the Yankees, the Rays rise to greatness under Joe Maddon, he saw the birth of the Montreal Expos as their third base coach in 1971 and he was a coach for Carlton Fisk's "waving home run" in Game 6 of the 1975 World Series. These are just a few of the amazing moments he lived - he's almost like the Forrest Gump of baseball (that he got to see so many amazing things not that he's a shrimp salesman).

Zimmer never left the game despite bouncing around from team to team and city to city. In fact, his tenure with the Rays from 2004 to now was the longest he's ever spent in a city. It seems an appropriate end to a beautifully long career. This link is a great ESPN article celebrating the career of a true baseball life.

Rest in peace, Zim. Thanks for reading. 

My NL All-Star Picks

I'm back for more. You seem like you're back for more too. After a beautiful day off, I'm ready to tackle the NL All-Star roster. The second round of voting came out today, but for the sake of consistency (put differently: I was too tired to write yesterday after a long day of painting in the sun), I'll be using the May 28th numbers as well. So here we go! (Disclaimer - there is no NL DH listed)

First Base

Who's winning: Adrian Gonzalez (.269/.347/.500)

Who should be winning: Paul Goldschmidt (.299/.354/.521)

The 32-year old Gonzalez is having an underwhelming season for the (let's be honest) underwhelming 30-28 Dodgers, hitting only .269 when he is a career .293 hitter. His OBP and slugging are pretty much exactly where his career numbers are, but his BABIP is about 20 points below the MLB average, showing that he has hit either a lot of "at 'em" balls or the gross amount of shifts are working. Staying in the NL West, 2013 MVP snub Paul Goldschmidt is having a solid year for the 23-36 Diamondbacks, hitting .299 and slugging right around his career average (nowhere near last year's outstanding number of .551). Going into play as of 6/2, Goldy is tied for the NL lead in doubles (22) and hits (70). I honestly think that since the Dbacks are doing poorly and that Arizona is such a smaller market than LA, Goldy is being left out in the desert. Freddie Freeman is a hot step behind Goldschmidt, hitting .297 and slugging .512.

Second Base

Who's winning: Chase Utley (.320/.381/.517)

Who should be winning: Utley

In my mind, this race is wrapped up unless Chutley decides to try hitting righty until July. Of the top 5 vote-getters at 2nd base, Utley is the only one hitting above .300. Furthermore, of those same top 5 vote-getters (Utley, Gordon, Phillips, Rendon, Walker), there a 50 point gap between he and the next highest average (Dee Gordon's, .280). The 2014 Phillies are like a 1995 Cadillac - great back in their day, but there are just better options now. But Utley has proven that he is more than just an old Caddy; he has aged quite nicely and so far this season has managed to stay healthy and is tied with Goldschmidt for the NL lead in doubles with 22. In fact, if the season were to end today, he would beat his career averages in BA, OBP, and SLG%. 

Shortstop

Who's winning: Troy Tulowitzki (.350/.450/.661)

Who should be winning: Tulowitzki

Okay I take back what I said about 2nd base being wrapped up. THIS is wrapped up. Tulowitzki should be starting for both sides in the ASG, that's how hot he is. He has been injury prone the last few years and we are finally seeing him play to his full potential, leading the NL in runs (45) and slugging, and leading the MLB in average, on-base percentage, and OPS.

I don't even know how to react to how good he is this year.

From a shortstop. Shortstops aren't supposed to be great hitters - and a shortstop is leading the most important offensive categories. He's on pace to have career records in about every single offensive category, except strikeouts. He is the hottest player in the game right now.

Third Base

Who's winning: Nolan Arenado (.305/.333/.489)

Who should be winning: David Wright (.293/.340/.397)

This was about a coin flip for me, I had a really hard time picking between he and David Wright. Arenado had that crazy 28 game hitting streak earlier this year but he doesn't walk much (see the OBP) and hits for very little power, especially at Coors Field. He is a bright young star but I'd pick Captain America. David Wright is tied for the NL lead in hits with 70, but has a lower average (.293) and slugging percentage (.397). That said, it is a heck of a lot harder to slug in a place like Citi Field versus Coors Field. I really don't know. I'd go with the vet in David Wright.

Catcher

Who's winning: Yadier Molina (.309/.354/.448)

Who should be winning: Yadi

Molina has come into his element as a hitter these past few years, posting a .313 average since 2011 while his career average is .285. Molina's slugging is way up this year compared to his career .406 and, as always, his handling of the pitching staff is second to none, as proven by Wainwright's incredible start. Lynn, Miller, and Wacha are also having great years, all posting ERAs below 3.50. In my NL predictions post from a few months ago, I praised Molina for his leadership and intangibles. He deserves an MVP and plays the catching position right - he should be the All-Star.

Outfield
Who's winning: Charlie Blackmon (.310/.347/.512), Andrew McCutchen (.307/.427/.470), Ryan Braun (.327/.367/.595)

Who should be winning: Yasiel Puig (.347/.437/.618), Giancarlo Stanton (.311/.407/.612), Braun

Pains me to write those. We know Braun is a liar and a cheat and I hate him for it, but he's not alone. Nelson Cruz took on a suspension last year as well and I selected him to start at DH for the AL. Braun is having a great year for the surprise Brewers - his slugging percentage is right where it was in his 2011 MVP season and you can't say no to that average. Stanton is just a machine this year in terms of home runs and hitting with RISP (he leads the NL in home runs and RBI), but his average is so much higher than it has been in the past that he has become even more of a weapon. Before, he was basically a longball threat, but now he is a doubles threat, a singles threat, etc. Wherever you pitch it, he is lethal (so is his wardrobe - check out the arm sleeve on Memorial Day). 

He has done so much for the Marlins that he deserves a start. And then we come to Puig. You all know I dislike Puig because of his attitude but there is no denying his skills. I wrote about him earlier in my Top 10 Under 25 post and he is having a heck of a year. The numbers agree. It hurts that 2 out of the 3 starters in the outfield are shady characters but the numbers do not lie. 

Pitcher

Johnny Cueto (5-4, 1.68 ERA, .76 WHIP). I can see arguments for Wainwright and Grienke, but Cueto's stuff is just filthy.

It's so filthy I want to reiterate how filthy it is with the Google definition of filthy.

He leads the MLB in K's (92), ERA (1.68), WHIP (.76 - wow), Batting average against (.151), complete games, and shutouts. The dude is earning his $10M salary this year and deserves the start despite his average record. When you lead in this many categories, you're doing something right. 

So there it is. Not a lot of arguing on my part except for the outfield. There are a lot of Rockies out there which goes in line with my NL West prediction post - they can hit the cover off the ball (first in the NL in team runs, hits, home runs), but pitching is shaky at best (2nd last in NL in ERA, last in K's), hence their 28-28 record. Honestly, if I were to make a call, I think the AL would win but Mike Matheny knows his stuff. I cannot wait for the ASG in the beautiful Target Field in Minnesota.

Hope your Monday was all you had hoped. Thanks for reading.