2014 Predictions: NL West

This is the last division, folks. We are nearly there, thanks for bearing with me. The NL West is the weakest division in the league and has been for a few years. Not the worst, but the weakest. Their division winning percentage of .492 is the 3rd lowest in baseball, which is not bad, but they only had one team above .500 (one was also at .500). The other divisions that had lower winning percentages were the NL Central (who had the 66-96 Cubs) and the AL West (who had the 51-111 Astros). This will be a one horse race for the majority of the year if not the whole year. The 1927 Yankees spent every single day in 1st place; I can see the Dodgers doing the same thing. They start the season in Australia against their only real competitor Diamondbacks - if they get a 2 game lead, they will not look back.

1. Los Angeles 98-64

I think the Dodgers have a chance to win 100 games this year, I really do. It depends on injuries. Last year, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, and Matt Kemp had multiple trips to the DL. Puig missed a number of games with a sore hip (presumably from sliding into home on his walkoff home run - you'll learn I do not like anything about Puig). Adrian Gonzalez was in and out of the lineup in May; nothing serious, but it was still a missed bat. Zack Grienke broke his collarbone in a fight with Carlos Quentin and missed a few weeks. Fellow hurlers Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly went on the DL at least once each, as did both Ellises (Mark and AJ). That said, the Dodgers have a ton of talent up and down the dugout. The 1-6 hitters will most likely be Crawford, Puig, Ramirez, Gonzalez, Kemp, Uribe - holy cow.

Outfielders Crawford, Ethier, and Puig.

Then the rotation looks like Kershaw (best pitcher in the game), Grienke, Ryu, newly signed Dan Haren, and Paul Maholm or Josh Beckett. The bullpen also has flaming arms of Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen. Playing in the NL West the Dodgers will steamroll their way to the top with ease. 

2. Arizona 83-79

The Dbacks have gone 81-81 the past two years. Short of signing Mark Trumbo,

Slugger Mark Trumbo joins the Diamondbacks outfield in 2014.

the offseason was pretty quiet - picked up aging Bronson Arroyo, Eric Chavez, and Henry Blanco. Another solid pick up was Addison Reed to bolster the bullpen and give JJ Putz and Brad Ziegler support.  Gerardo Parra, coming off of a Gold Glove season, will continue to blossom in his career. Cody Ross is another powerful hitter that will play alongside Trumbo in the outfield. Goldschmidt should win the MVP this year. Last season's snub aside, he has the capability to hit .330/30/130. If he does that, there shouldn't be any questions about his value and therefore should win the award. That said, the Dbacks should also go over .500 to give him a shot. The infield rounds out with Aaron Hill, Didi Gregorius, and Martin Prado. A solid roster, but weak on pitching (Corbin, Cahill, Miley, and now Arroyo).

3. San Francisco Giants 81-81
2013 was a bad year for the Giants, mainly because Pedro Gomez wasn't following them around for the whole season. They will likely have the identical starting 7 position players, with the exception of newly signed slugger Mike Morse.

After hopping around the league with Seattle, Baltimore, and Washington, Morse landed a home by the Bay.

All the pieces were there for the Giants, so its a bit of a conundrum that they did not perform better. They are an excellent hitting team; with a team batting average of .260 (.269 excluding pitchers' stats) was 4th in the NL and 8th in the MLB. The problem is the long ball, the Giants finished second to last in the team AB per HR category, hitting a home run once every 51 at bats, barely one every other game. They also finished 25th in extra base hits. They are a singles team that didn't play enough small ball. Matt Cain underperformed, going 8-10, as did Barry Zito (5-11) and Tim Lincecum (10-14). It was frustrating to say the least. Their power numbers will go back up this year; Kung Fu Panda finished with about 10 fewer bombs than usual, and Buster Posey will add a few more. 81-81 is a low ball I think, considering they will play almost 40 games against the very weak Colorado and San Diego. They won the title in 2010 and 2012, so 2014 would fit the mold. Bruce Bochy won't put up with another sub-.500 year.

4. Colorado 72-90
Offensively, the Rockies are great. A force to be reckoned with, even. If Cuddy can match last year, look out. Losing the Toddfather hurts, but Justin Morneau is a nearly identical version of him (minus the awesome facial and the fact that he is Canadian, poor guy) in terms of doubles and average.

Morneau signed a two-year deal with Colorado - big shoes to fill.

Carlos Gonzalez is a stud, making them a lethal 3-4-5 combo. Tulowitzki, if he stays healthy, will produce a ton, making this lineup a pitcher's bad dream, but add in a respectable .280 average from DJ LeMahieu and a growing Nolan Arenado, this is quickly turning into a pitcher's nightmare, especially in the thin air of Denver. The problem is, their pitching is as bad as their offense is good. Last year they had a team ERA of 4.44, last in the NL and 28th in the MLB. Sure they signed Brett Anderson and Boone Logan, but they still have career ERAs of 3.81 and 4.39, respectively. Not great additions for a place where the ball flies so easily. Other notable additions include Drew Stubbs, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brandon Barnes, to fill in the outfield and bullpen. They'll have to score an ungodly amount of runs to compete, and you know what they say: defense wins championships.

5. San Diego 70-92
Despite the offseason acquisitions of Joaquin Benoit

Benoit, coming off of a great year with Detroit, works out with his new team.

and Josh Johnson, the rotation needs some work. With starters of Eric Stults and Andrew Cashner, things won't be pretty this year. Cashner had a solid year, going 10-9 with a 3.09 ERA, but he has Chris Sale Syndrome: no offense! The 2013 Padres placed 24th in runs scored and 23rd in average in the MLB. Everth Cabrera will be back from his suspension and hopefully Seth Smith can minimize his strikeout totals as he adds some power to the spacious Petco Park. Last year, the Padres won 76 games, beating their pythagorean total by 4 games. Truthfully, I think 70 wins is generous, but we'll see. 

That's the divisions, folks. Thanks for sticking with me. Next week I'll be doing award and postseason predictions, oh boy! Have a great weekend.

2014 Predictions: NL Central

Holy cow, what a stacked division. I had a tough time figuring this one out. It seems that a lot of divisions are really top heavy, with two or three great teams, and then two or three...other teams, and the NL Central is no exception. Expect the Cardinals to be playing late into the season again. 

NL Central

1. St. Louis 102-60
I have no problem labeling the Cardinals as the only team to win 100 games this year. I think they have the top-to-bottom lineup, a young rotation, a smattering of veteran leadership, and an tactical wizard of a manager in Mike Matheny. The Cardinals didn't make a lot of offseason moves, but they made highly efficient ones. Some of you might be thinking "how is a move efficient, Bill?" Well let me tell you. With the trade of David Freese and Fernando Salas to the Angels for Peter Bourjos, they freed up a spot for rising star Matt Carpenter (.318/.392/.481) at third, allowing newcomer Kolten Wong to start at second. Despite his faux pas in the World Series, the Cardinals have put a lot of stock into him and see a bright future. If he doesn't work out, then Mark Ellis (free agent from the Dodgers) will do a good job filling in. On the other side of second base, shortstop Jhonny Peralta will make his NL debut. To many, Peralta is a delinquent and his 4 year, $52 million contract is a negative incentive for PEDs. I agree to a certain extent with that, but he's paid his dues and I think he knows not to do it again. Also, despite his increased power numbers, Peralta also went through a swing change in the 2013 offseason, creating more of a line drive swing, allowing him to hit .303 before his suspension. His range at shortstop isn't good but the balls he gets to are fielded perfectly; that's why it's smart to have a quick third and second basemen - maybe they can reach some things he won't. Back to the outfield: though seeing perennial all-star Carlos Beltran go to New York was hard, Cardinals fans and administrators have a secret weapon in Oscar Taveras, who is likely to start in right this year. If he doesn't, then Jon Jay will. Either one is a good bet; Jay is a career .293 hitter and has good speed on the base paths. Taveras is an overwhelmingly popular pick for NL ROY. So pick your poison Cardinals. As always, Yadier Molina will be the best catcher in the NL (arguably the whole league now that Joe Mauer is no longer a catcher) again, and lead the team deep into the postseason. The Boston Globe called him a player to build around, and I could not agree more; he's a tactician, a great hitter, and stays out of trouble.

I'll leave you to chew on this: the Cardinals had a run differential last year of +187. Second to whom? The World Champion Red Sox. Don't be surprised if they hit +200 this year. 

2. Cincinnati 94-68
I promise you, even though I didn't pick the people's choice Pittsburgh Pirates to be near the top again, I still have a heart and soul. I think the Reds made better moves to compete. First and foremost, they fired bunt happy manager Dusty Baker and hired pitching coach Bryan Price. Here's why I like this move: A) it's hiring from within so Price knows the system and the players. Chemistry won't be an issue. B) It's not Dusty Baker. Baker is a fine manager, but only in the regular season. He's been graced with some incredibly talented teams (2002 Giants, 2003 Cubs, 2012 Reds) and could only take one pennant in 20 years managing. Now even though they lost Shin Soo Choo, speedster Billy Hamilton is taking his place, and if his average stays healthy, he could make a run at ROY. Rounding out the outfield with Jay Bruce and Chris Heisey, they will be in good shape on both sides of the ball. The infield is defensively sound, but sometimes lacking offensively. 2010 MVP Joey Votto is exempt from that statement with his .314 average and consistently league-leading OBP. Brandon Phillips (Dat Dude)

is a supplier of power, but not a lot of consistency. Despite his trade rumors he will be back in Cincy this year. Cozart and Frazier, hitting .254 and .234 respectively last year, will be the everyday starters on the left side. Cozart went through swing reconstruction this offseason, and I am eager if he can reach his full gap-to-gap potential. Having just signed Homer Bailey to 6 years and $105 million, the Reds are looking into the future, eyeing a title not this year, but definitely before 2020. Surrounding him with Mat Latos, Mike Leake (fantasy steal), and Johnny Cueto makes for a dangerous rotation (good dangerous).

3. Pittsburgh 93-69
I don't even know if its statistically possible to have three teams win 90 games in a season in the same division, but it's happening. Mainly because these three will beat up on the other two remaining teams, but nonetheless, the Pirates are still a great team. Neil Walker is an under-the-radar stud (probably just because he's Don Kelly's brother-in-law), Clint Barmes is a good defender, and Pedro Alvarez broke out last year to lead the NL in home runs. He only hit .233 but that's not what he's paid to do, am I right? Of course I am, that's why you've read this far. Naturally, we will see Cutch produce out of his mind, and young Starling Marte will follow suit and learn a lot. Losing AJ Burnett will hurt, but the signing of Edinson Volquez will bolster that somewhat; last year Burnett went 10-11, Volquez 9-12. He will likely be the 3rd or 4th starter, behind Francisco Liriano (who emerged late in the season as a pitcher who means business), Jeff Locke, and 22-year old Gerrit Cole. Clint Hurdle is an excellent manager, taking a team that batted .245 and sending them to their first playoff seed in over 20 years. They'll be back on the cornrows of MLB '13 The Show coverboy Andrew McCutchen.

4. Chicago 69-93
The outfield in Wrigleyville will look different at the beginning of next season. Not the physical grass, but who's playing there. Last year, it was Soriano, DeJesus, and Schierholtz. This year it will likely be Ryan Sweeney, Junior Lake (who unfortunately sacrificed rookie status last year, otherwise he could have made a run at ROY), and Schierholtz. Chris Coghlan will be roving as a 4th outfielder. Lake is a young injection of energy. Good fielder (came up as a shortstop) and base stealer, but he strikes out far too often to be effective long term. In 64 games in 2013, he struck out 68 times, but he also hit .284. We'll see what hitting coach Bill Mueller has in store for him this year in Arizona. The infield will be the same: Valbuena, Castro, Barney, Rizzo: all defense, little offense. The four of them hit a combined .226, with only Rizzo showing decent power. Having "Bad Scrabble Board" Jeff Samardzija

back as the ace will help matters, otherwise 9-12 Travis Wood is the ace. Jake Arrieta will return from injury, Jason Hammel is a good four starter, with the heavy loser (8-18 in 2013) Edwin Jackson bringing up the rear. Jose Veras (3.02 ERA in 2013) is a great pick up; Cubs fans will enjoy not have Marmol come in to close games, and young Pedro Strop will do swell in the setup role. New manager Rick Renteria will most likely be on a pretty short leash; 4 managers in 8 years, 13 in the last 23 years.

5. Milwaukee 65-97
Last year, the Brewers went 74-88, which wasn't bad considering they lost their best player, Ryan Braun, for a hefty suspension. I do not foresee that being their fortune this year. 'But Carlos Gomez had a career year!' Exactly: a career year. Not a year to change his career. He's a career .255 hitter. Aramis Ramirez, if he stays healthy, will have a little bit of relief since Braun is returning to the clean-up slot. 23-year old shortstop Jean Segura is an incredibly bright spot, batting .294 last season (highest of the non-dopers). Scooter Gennett is another solid young middle infielder, and he'll likely take over for .209 Rickie Weeks, but how much will he be able to hold up throughout the entire season? The pitching staff did add Matt Garza, a much needed ace, but he'll be pitching most of his games against the aforementioned Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates, so his offense will have to show up (not likely). Lyle Overbay will take over at first, and as much as I'd like to say he'll repeat what he did in New York last year (which was still only .240), I don't think they'll get much production out of him. They aren't a terrible team, but they also lost Corey Hart and play in a wicked division. Unfortunately, I don't think Bernie Brewer will be sliding too much this year.

Thanks for reading! Almost done with the divisions!

2014 Predictions: NL East

The NL East had some trouble with competition this past year. The Braves ran away with the division, winning it by 10 games over the Nationals and another 12 games over the next closest competitor. It was also an injury-ridden division. Even the Braves were not immune from the bug; Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, Dan Uggla, and BJ Upton all had stints on the 15-day DL and Tim Hudson got his ankle shattered against the Mets in the middle of the summer. Despite their hard luck (it was not as hard as anyone else's), Fredi Gonzalez rode the successes of Chris Johnson, Freddie Freeman, and Andrelton Simmons into the playoffs. I expect them to do the exact same thing in 2014.

NL East

1. Atlanta 94-68
All of the pieces are in place. Now it is time to perform. Last year, a lot of people left their game in the warm weather in Spring Training a la BJ Upton only hitting .184 and Dan Uggla .179. Evan Gattis was a pleasant surprise, crushing 21 home runs in 105 games, and he will take over the full time catching position since Brian McCann has gone to the Yankees. Freddie Freeman, coming off of an offseason engagement to his girlfriend, will be in high spirits and repeat his .319 campaign and lead the league in hugs given.

The second base position is shaky as of right now: Uggla will be back, but youngsters Joey Terdoslavich and Taylor Pastornicky (spell check is screaming at me right now) will also make a case for the spot come Spring. We'll see what Gonzalez picks. The rotation is solid, with new pitchers Brandon Beachy and Gavin Floyd joining the squad. The newly signed Julio Teheran will continue to improve along side of young hurlers Mike Minor and Kris Medlen. Floyd and Beachy will not be 20 game winners, that's for sure, but they are good 4th and 5th pitchers. If they can get any type of lead, they'll be turning it over to the *new* best closer in the game, Craig Kimbrel. 

2. Washington 90-72
A lot of folks are picking the Nats to be a powerhouse and even go all the way this year. I have a few reservations about them, namely the new management. Matt Williams is a very capable manager, but it is his first year - Mike Matheny went 88-74 in his first year and then won the pennant with almost the exact same team. I see that happening with the Nats. The rotation is arguably the strongest in the NL between Strasburg, Gio, Zim, newly acquired Fister, and Detwiler.

Strasburg and Detwiler had some injury issues last season, so if they stay healthy then I think they will go far. On the offensive side of the ball, the Nats can rake. They were third in the NL in overall home runs (161), and if you take away Gio Gonzalez's one home run, they are first in the NL in non-pitcher home runs (160). Between Zimmerman, Werth, Harper, and sometimes Ian Desmond, these fellas score a lot of runs, but their team OBP was .313, only 8th in the league. If everyone's healthy, I expect to see them as a Wild Card and my guess at their record could be wildly wrong.

3. Philadelphia 75-87
The Phillies had a very disappointing year, ending ultimately with the termination of Charlie Manuel. The senior circuit will continue this year in the town of Brotherly Love: with signing Marlon Byrd (age 36) to two years, AJ  Burnett (age 37) to a one year deal, and Carlos Ruiz (age 35) to a three-year deal this offseason, they got good players but not any younger. Ryan Howard will be back from his season-ending injury, which is great, but again, he's no spring chicken and he strikes out a lot. 

The average age of the Phillies last year was 30.1 years old (28.5-year old 25-man roster). Again, high talent, but also high age. They'll be great for spurts, but ultimately, injuries and fatigue will catch up to them.

4. Miami 68-94
Last year's 100-loss team will improve slightly. They ended the season on a bright note, no-hitting the Tigers and winning on a walkoff wild pitch. They have a strong young core led by reigning ROY Jose Fernandez and defensive whiz Adeiny Hechavarria.

The Fish also had a tremendous offseason, signing Rafael Furcal, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Garrett Jones. Mike Redmond knows what he's doing down in Miami, and now that he has the players to back him up (at least more so than last year). Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick will get more reps and see their averages go up, not a lot, but enough. Right now, here's what I peg their starting lineup to look like: Furcal 2B, Yelich CF, Stanton RF, Jones 1B, Salty C, Ozuna LF, Polanco/Lucas 3B, Hech SS, Pitcher. Not bad at all - a lot of growth to be done. Jones will provide useful protection for Stanton, so his average will shoot back up to his 2012 All-Star campaign of .290. The rotation is decent, again, extremely young, featuring Fernandez, Turner, Eovaldi, and Alvarez. The average age of these four is exactly 22 years old. It won't be the Marlins year, but in four or five years, look out. 

5. New York 60-102
Unfortunately, the Mets took a step back this season and probably won't have much hope to compete this year. Missing Matt Harvey is a huge blow, and quasi-rookie Zach Wheeler will have to step up. He went 7-5 last year which is solid, but he'll have to throw a lot of innings this year, which I know Terry Collins won't like (because that's exactly what happened to Harvey). Now, anemic pitching staff aside, they are regaining Captain America (David Wright) and newly acquired Curtis Granderson.

I think Grandy is an awesome player, but his uppercut swing inside of the quite spacious Citi Field will result in a lot of long fly balls and warning track power. After playing in the little league Yankee Stadium for a few years, he's conditioned to getting under the ball more than he probably should. His defense will shine in the green pastures of Queens, but his average will suffer (again). Travis d'Arnaud, the young but injury-ridden catcher, will take the starting role now that John Buck has left New York. Ike Davis likely will lose his job to Josh Satin, therefore rounding out the infield with Daniel Murphy and Omar Quintanilla up the middle. I may be blowing their age out of proportion and underestimating Wright's ability to win games, but this year won't be pretty. 

2014 Predictions: AL West

This is a really tough division to pick. A lot of teams made a lot of of changes this year, but I still think it will be a two horse race between the A's and Rangers. Without further adieu:

AL West

1. Oakland 92-70
Bob Melvin's green and yellow elephants will be, once again, in the playoffs (will we see a third straight A's/Tigers ALDS?). Last year was a very solid year for the A's, namely behind the offensive production of Josh Donaldson (.301/29/93, 4th in MVP voting). Despite their winning record, Donaldson was actually the only player to hit over .300 (other than Kurt Suzuki who played in 15 games), but they came in third in the AL in runs and home runs, so the long ball was essential to them last year. This year will be mostly the same: GM whiz kid Billy Beane did not make any major free agent pick ups, so Melvin will be putting out nearly the same lineup. Reddick and Crisp, both excellent defensive outfielders, had down years, hitting .226 and .261 respectively. Reddick was bothered with a wrist injury, resulting in a lack of hitting to the power alleys and simply a lack of playing time. Crisp's average was down but his on base percentage was right on par with the rest of his career, though his stolen bases were far down compared to his last few years in Oakland. The rotation lost 18-6 ageless wonder Bartolo Colon, but other than him, the oldest starter last year was Tommy Milone at age 26, so the future is very bright on the bump. Right now their rotation is looking like Griffin, Parker, Gray, Milone, and Straily. Very young, but a lot of potential. Last year they won 96 games, I think that's possible but not all that probable given the Mariners revamping of their roster.

2. Texas 90-72
The Rangers lost some key players in this offseason: AJ Pierzynski, Joe Nathan, Ian Kinsler, and Nelson Cruz. Cruz was gone most of last season and they did just fine, but there's no denying his big bat will be missed. That said, manager Ron Washington was also given a lot to work with this offseason, signing Mitch Moreland and JP Arencibia to deals, as well as outfielder Shin Soo Choo to a 7-year deal and Prince Fielder from the Tigers. There is a little bit of pressure on Fielder because of all the talk of moving to a more hitter-friendly ballpark. Last year, Comerica had a park factor of 108 and Arlington had a 102 which means that Comerica was even more friendly to hitters, but maybe the change in the atmosphere will be good for him. Andrus and Beltre will be excellent as usual, but youngster Jurickson Profar will be tried at second base. I think he'll do fine as long as he doesn't hit in the 2 slot. Choo was a hotly contested free agent, sought after by a number of teams for his crazy .423 OBP (granted, he played in a matchbox in GABP). He'll most likely play center and young stud Leonys Martin will take over in right for Cruz. The Rangers' rotation is top heavy, with Darvish (Cy Young candidate) and Derek Holland at the top. Matt Garza was a nice addition last year but he has moved on to Milwaukee, so Alexi Ogando will take over and continue the nice season he had in 2011 (13-8, 3.51 ERA). The key to the Rangers season, and this is bold, I know, is Neftali Feliz. The former ROY has oscillated back and forth from starter to closer and its taken a toll on his body, causing some lingering biceps issues last year. With Nathan gone, the closing role should be his and if he stays healthy, the Rangers could do some damage.

3. Los Angeles 81-81
Scioscia is an awesome manager. Last season, he had a lot of things working against him in terms of injuries (Pujols and Bourjos) and completely underperformance (Joe Blanton going 2-14). Trout will be Trout and likely go .325/.430/.560 (wow) and rub off on JB Shuck on both sides of the ball. Hamilton is a wild card, his first year in LA was not pretty, and I think he'll improve but not much. We won't see 2010's .359 average, but we won't see 2013's .250 average, either. My prediction is somewhere around .270 but with a lot of fly balls and strikeouts. Pujols will be heathy (hopefully), adding some protection, and the offseason pickup of David Freese, likely 5-hitter, will add even more. Raul Ibanez is a good addition, likely as a DH for an injection of power every once in a while. He won't put up an MVP campaign, but will have a respectable year for a 42-year old. Kendrick is a highly underrated second baseman, and I expect him to hit .310 this year. Similar to the Mariners, they are offensively challenged when it comes to catchers; between Hank Conger and Chris Ianetta, they produced 18 home runs and 60 RBIs. Signing veteran Yorvit Torrealba will aid their growth in hitting. CJ Wilson will again anchor the aging rotation, which is their weakest link. Past he and Weaver, it's a crapshoot. Ernesto Frieri was pretty shaky last year, going 2-4 with 1.4 home runs per nine. Not good. If the Angels want to win this year they will have to hit, hit, and hit some more. Last year, their team average of .264 was 3rd in the AL and their 733 runs scored was 6th.

4. Seattle 74-88
Oh boy. Jack Z did some work this offseason. With a solid core of King Felix, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Justin Smoak, the Mariners overloaded their artillery with offense by signing Robinson Cano, Corey Hart, and Logan Morrison.

By adding closer Fernando Rodney, last year's shaky closer Tom Wilhemsen will be off the hook, though I don't think Seattle fans know exactly Rodney's style (walk two people, throw a wild pitch then strike out the side). Young catcher Mike Zunino will be the everyday catcher so maybe his .214 average will sneak above .250. Hard to believe last year at .214 he was Seattle's best offensive catcher. Kendrys Morales is not coming back and Justin Smoak will most likely once again barely hit .230. Signing Hart and Cano is great, but the guys around them are not there yet. They are either too young or just have too many bugs in their swing to be successful. I also don't think Cano will have as many home runs at Safeco, but he will have more doubles. Last year he hit .313/.383/.516 with 27 home runs and 107 RBIs. In a pitcher's park like Safeco, I'm guessing he'll have a .298/.365/.478 with 24 home runs and 99 RBIs, as well as a vicious chorus of boos when he goes back to the Bronx. Also, let me say I think the Mariners settled big time with hiring Lloyd McClendon. In 4.5 years managing the Pirates, he was 110 games below .500. He is not a good manager and I think they were just impatient in signing someone to man the helm. All in all, a few big names will not bring a championship. I think they'll bring a winning season (eventually) but aside from their bright stars, the future is kind of dim. 

5. Houston 57-105
The Astros will probably be in the basement for a few more years. Their farm system is wicked, with Mark Appel, Carlos Correa, and Jonathan Singleton, but these guys can't even drink a beer yet (well Correa can't), so they probably won't be playing professionally any time soon. As far as this year goes, Bo Porter will do what he can with what he's given. He's not a bad manager, he just has players that can't compete. Jason Castro, Jose Altuve, and acquisition Dexter Fowler are bright spots, but when your best pitcher is 4-12 with a 4.59 ERA, good things won't happen. Seeing how Fowler will adapt to the hill in center will be interesting. He's played there a few times before, when the Astros were in NL, but other than that, I'm sure he's rarely been to the Juice Box (Minute Maid Park).

2014 Predictions: AL Central

The AL Central was a tough one to decide. A lot of teams are on the upswing right now and truthfully I think between the Tigers and Indians, it's anybody's race with the Royals playing an excellent spoiler. Give it a few years and I think we could see them at the top of the list here too. Here's what I have going into 2014:

1. Detroit 95-67
The Tigers went through a major facelift this offseason, removing some of their major power in Prince Fielder and acquiring more speed in Rajai Davis (45 steals in 108 games in 2013), a balanced attack in 3-time All-Star Ian Kinsler (.277, 15 steals, 13 home runs, 72 RBI's in 136 games). The bullpen, consistently the Tigers' worry for the past few years, was also revamped, signing closing stud Joe Nathan to two years as well as Joba Chamberlain to bolster the back end of the bullpen. Expect Bruce Rondon to pick up more innings as he hones his offspeed pitches in Florida. Jose Iglesias will be the every day human-highlight reel, locking down the middle infield with the sure-handed (sometimes) Kinsler. Under new management, April will be slow (when isn't it for the Tigers), especially with highly touted rookie Nick Castellanos starting at third, but Ausmus will right the ship and the league's best rotation will right the wrongs. 

2. Cleveland 93-69
Opposite of the Tigers, the Tribe will have their classic hot start, but they won't be as inconsistent as last year (2 5-game losing streaks, ending the season with a 10-game winning streak). Ubaldo Jimenez has gone to Baltimore, so that will put more weight on youngster Danny Salazar to perform well in his number two position. I can see him having a great year, between 15-20 wins and a 3.30 or so ERA. Chris Perez is also gone, which is honestly a blessing. Last season, he pitched in 54 games but only completed 25 saves. In addition, the bullpen lost submariner Joe Smith and Vinnie Pestano, but did pick up veteran hurler John Axford, who has been shaky as a closer to say the least. Pitching aside, the Indians can just plain hit. Last year they finished 4th in the AL in runs scored and that should only go up this year. Bourn is a demon on the base paths, and Kipnis/Cabrera both had down years (hard to believe .284 is down for Kip). Rumor has it Santana may move to third to give slugging Brazilian backstop Yan Gomes a shot at the everyday catching position. With the addition of David Murphy, Michael Brantley's extension, and Raburn holding down the right field corner, the Indians outfield crew is legit. With the veteran (and incredibly bro-tastic) leadership of Nick Swisher, Jason Giambi, and Tito, expect to see the Tribe in October. I would not be surprised with them win the division, but their rotation is an area of concern.

3. Kansas City 86-76
Another great young team that I think has an outside shot at the wild card, if not the division. Once the Royals hired George Brett as their hitting coach, they went on a tear and did not look back. With James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie and newly acquired Justin Vargas heading the rotation, their team ERA will be very good and bullpen will not have to do a lot of work, even if they do have All-Star Greg Holland waiting. Bruce Chen also always is a respectable spot starter, going 9-4 last year, and Danny Duffy will get the ball more often as well. On the other side of the ball, the Royals have one of the youngest lineups in the league. Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, Mike Moustakas (coolest name in the league if you ask me) and Salvador Perez all are still under the age of 28, and Alex Gordon is reaching his prime and just turned 30 earlier this month. Omar Infante is the elder statesmen (hard to believe) of Kauffman Stadium, entering his age 32 season and coming off of an incredible .318/.345/.450 campaign in division-rival Detroit. The Royals are still very young and need a few more pieces to the puzzle, like an everyday right fielder. If their tablesetters do their job, then Hosmer and Butler will have a blast. 

4. Chicago 71-91
There is not a whole lot to be excited about on the South Side this year other than Abreu and Chris Sale. Adam Eaton is a great pick up from Arizona, finally securing an everyday center fielder who can get on base consistently, but they had to give up Addison Reed, leaving the back end of the bullpen exposed. Avisail Garcia will be the everyday right fielder, supplying a healthy balance of power and speed to the lineup. He still has a lot of maturing to do, but when he's grown into his absurdly athletic frame, he'll be fun to watch. Last year, the only pitcher that had a winning record was Jake Peavy, who is now in Boston wearing a big old championship. Sale went 11-14 still with nasty stuff, and a lot of that is in part of the lack of offense. Hopefully Abreu can help with that but with the infield essentially as a revolving door and Alexei Ramirez as the defensively worst shortstop in the league, the Sox won't be much of a threat.

5. Minnesota 69-93
Even less of a threat will be the Twins up north. If the snow ever goes away, they'll finally get to playing up in the beautiful Target Field. With Justin Morneau gone to Pittsburgh, Mauer will have a lot of pressure on his head and shoulders (please tell me you got the joke), but adding veteran Kurt Suzuki will help foster the rotation. Byron Buxton, one of the most talked about prospects in modern years, will probably make his debut, and let's be honest, the Twins don't have a lot to lose in the outfield so he might as well start every day. The rotation picked up Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, both solid guys that won't be in the Cy Young conversation but will get 10-12 wins each. Legend Paul Molitor joined the coaching staff as well, so they have a recipe for success, but there still a few AAAA (players too good for minors but not good enough for majors) plugging the remaining holes such as Oswaldo Arcia, Chris Parmelee, and Aaron Hicks. Also, I will go on record that Glen Perkins is one of the best closers in the league, but he so rarely gets save opportunities so he can never really shine. I had him on my fantasy team last year and he was an absolute stud - 2-0, 2.30 ERA, 36 saves, and only blew 4. Gardenhire knows what he's doing and the Twins won't be in the cellar much longer, but this won't be the Twins year. 

2014 Predictions: AL East

With Spring Training in full swing now (pun-alicious), I think now is good of a time as ever to give my predictions for the upcoming season. This will encompass everything from team records, finishes, playoff brackets, and award winners. Last year at the All-Star break, I predicted Red Sox over Cardinals in 7 games in the World Series, Red Sox over Tigers in 6, Cardinals over Braves in 5. I was better in the AL than NL but I'm still proud of how close I was.

So here we go!

1. Boston 100-62

The defending champs are in a position to do exactly that: defend their championship. Many are picking Xander Bogaerts as the AL ROY as he takes over on the infield for the Sox. Though Ryan Dempster announced that he will not pitch in 2014, their rotation will still be tough to beat. Buchholz will be healthy, and Lester will be classic flamethrowing Lester. Napoli and Papi will be back, but they lost Ellsbury and Saltalamacchia. They did add veteran winners Grady Sizemore and AJ Pierzynski; Sizemore's health is always a huge if, but he could be an excellent coach for Jackie Bradley, Jr. The signing of Mike Carp (.296/.362/.523 in 86 games) will also be a great 4th/5th outfielder. 

2. Tampa Bay 93-69

This was a tough pick over the star studded Yankees, but I think they are better managed. Reigning ROY Wil Myers will patrol the outfield and have a .300/25/100 season, David DeJesus will supply great speed and get on base for a team that is foreign to stealing. David Price, my Cy Young pick if he stays healthy, is going into a contract year and will undoubtedly go back to his old self, much of what we saw late in 2013. Chris Archer will settle in nicely as a 3rd starter and Grant Balfour will calm many nerves that Rodney frayed during his stay.

3. New York 91-71

Arguably the most active this offseason on the free agent market, signing Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, and Masahiro Tanaka. They also are getting back Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia from annoying and nagging injuries that kept them sidelined. A-Rod is out of the picture now, so the team can focus on the field and not the clubhouse. They will be back to the Bronx Bombers we know and love to hate, but I don't think we'll see them past the play-in game. Here's why: they lost not only a closer, but the best closer ever and their only answer right now is David Robertson. I'm not putting a lot of stock in Tanaka yet, I'm guessing he'll be about where Yu Darvish is down the road, but his first year will be good not great. They have a lot of stars, but that's it - not a lot of good role players for backup. 

4. Baltimore 82-80

Though they are well managed behind Buck Showalter, the rotation is an area of concern. Though Chris Tillman had an All-Star season, how much can the rest of them hold up? Similarly, the bullpen is another worry. I know Jim Johnson had a down year compared to 2012, but now he is all the way across the country in Oakland which will do them no good. Balfour's physical fiasco held them up from getting a solid closer so when it comes ninth inning they'll be throwing question marks. Their offense is second to none, with Hardy, Machado, Weiters, Davis, and Jones, and I reckon that will be the source for most of their wins. Earl Weaver said the key to winning baseball was pitching, defense and the three-run home run. Seems like Showalter follows suit. 

5. Toronto 72-90

The Jays are not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination but because they play in the vicious AL East, I do not have high expectations. Josh Johnson and JP Arencibia left for warmer weather, Rajai Davis left for a similar climate but a different division, and Emilio Bonifacio is now in the Windy City. A lot of folks left, but they will also have the Joses healthy, Reyes and Bautista. Colby Rasmus is a solid player coming into his own, but unfortunately, I don't think the Jays will be competing this year. 

Player to watch: Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

Comeback player of the year: Derek Jeter, NYY

Thanks for reading! Next post will be the AL Central. Take it easy folks.

Roy Halladay, Pt. 2

With yesterday's post about Roy Halladay completed, I'll take a step back from that one awesome game in the 1998 season to examine his entire career and determine whether or not he will be in the Hall of Fame. Let's take a dive into it, shall we?

For the better part of his career, Halladay was known as a workhorse. In fact, one of the most impressive stats in his favor are complete games and shutouts. In an era of specific pitching skills and closely monitored pitch counts, shutouts are becoming a thing of the past. With the rise of the closer and set-up roles, pitchers are only asked to go six or seven innings. Going 9 innings is a rare feat and something to be celebrated, as opposed to a hundred years ago when if a pitcher did not go 9 innings, the start must have been really, really bad. Throughout his 16 year career, Halladay averaged 33 starts a year. If you do the math, out of 162 games, that's roughly a start every fifth day, so his durability was something of a hidden gem in addition to wicked control and a relatively new pitch (cutter) to the game. What's more impressive, though, is how many innings he would throw in a season and still be performing at a high level year in and year out. He was in the top 10 in innings pitched in 8 separate seasons, with a career high of 266. Similarly, he was in the top 10 in batters faced in 8 separate seasons. 

That's pretty good. This is even better: Halladay was in the top 10 10 times in complete games, 6 of those seasons he was first or second. 5 of those came at age 30 or later! Okay durability is one thing, but to go that late and be dominant is another. He had 4 seasons in the top 10 ranks of shutouts, including back to back #1s at age 32 and 33. Going the distance is awesome. Holding the opponent scoreless is also impressive. Combining the two made him a fearsome competitor. The only way to get to him was small ball and pray a ball finds a hole, because runners rarely stole and he rarely gave up home runs. 

Excluding his last two seasons, which were uncharacteristically sloppy, his career ERA was 3.23. He racked up 203 wins and only 105 losses. He rarely walked any batters (his strikeout to walk ratio led the league 5 times, with a career high of 7.30). 

Stats are great, but let's look at the big picture. He won two Cy Youngs, one in each league (one of only 5 pitchers ever to do so - Gaylord Perry, Pedro, Johnson, Clemens). He also finished in the top five in voting five other times (runner up twice). He was selected to 8 All-Star teams (6 AL, 2 NL). Another stat that I find particularly interesting is that he was the Opening Day starter for 10 straight seasons, 2003-2012. Had it not been for an injury plagued offseason between '12 and '13, he may have added one more.

He also threw two no-hitters (both in 2010, one of which was in the playoffs), just adding to the fact that he was a solid pitcher late in his career.

Now, that said, he never won a ring. Some of that could be blamed on playing in the best division in the game for the first 12 years of his career. The AL East, featuring the Yankees and Red Sox, and more recently, the Rays and O's, almost always sent two teams to the playoffs in the archaic 4-team format. During Halladay's tenure in Toronto, there were only three years in which the AL East did not send two teams to the postseason (some combination of Yankees, Red Sox, Rays). He did not have the supporting cast around him to make it happen - that's not a slight at the early millennial Jays, that's just a fact. When he switched to the NL, however, the Phillies made it to the NLCS in 2010, losing to Giants, and lost to the Cardinals in the NLDS in 2011. He does not have extensive postseason experience (3-2, 2.37 ERA with a no-no), but he was equipped with a better team around him to go the distance. 

He also gave up his fair share of hits throughout his career. While his strikeout to walk ratio and home runs per nine were awesome, his hits per nine was not. The average for his career was 8.7 and sometimes inflated as high as 14.2 for a season. He allowed over 200 hits every single time he pitched over 200 innings; his worst season (in terms of hits) suffered 253 hits. That was also his first Cy Young winning season. I'm not quite sure what to think.

I'd give him the nod if I had a vote. Pitching in the AL East, its impressive that he only had one losing season. Then switching to the NL East with the powerful Braves and rising Nats, again he only had one losing season (2013 in which his shoulder just said 'no more, Roy'). I think seeing pitchers this durable is so rare anymore, and for that reason I think he deserves to be remembered forever. 

So congrats, Harry Leroy Halladay, you have the approval of a 21-year old independent baseball blogger (woo!).

Thanks for reading, folks. Enjoy the heat wave.

Roy Halladay, Pt. 1

When Roy Halladay announced his retirement last fall, being the huge baseball fan that I am, I went directly to his Baseball Reference page, curious to see if he had the credentials to make it into the Hall of Fame. We'll get to that in a little bit but for now I want to highlight a special game in his pre-rookie season. We probably all remember Halladay for having inhuman stamina, rarely missing the strike zone, and even more rarely missing a start. But the way he kicked off his career should not be forgotten.

September 27, 1998, the 162nd game of the season. The Tigers entered the game 65-97, miles away from playoff contention, as were the Blue Jays. They entered the game 88-74, which is quite good and would have been good enough for a half game out of first in the Central, and tied for first in the West. However, since the Yankees went off for 114 wins, the poor Jays good season was for naught, putting them in third in the East. At this point in the season, both teams had nothing to lose, so the Jays decided to bring up 21-year old Denver native named Roy Halladay (I assume hundreds of people called him Holiday by mistake for a year or two). Halladay's Major League debut was good, not great, pitching five innings against the Devil Rays, giving up 8 hits and 2 earned runs. It was his second career start that set the pace for his workhorse of a career.

It was a sunny Sunday afternoon at 78 degrees in Toronto, actually a record warm for this late in the year. 38,000 fans filed into the Rogers Centre to see the finale of the 1998 campaign against the international rival Detroit Tigers. Doc began the game smoothly, striking out two of the first three batters, likely from his nasty cutter. On the other side of the ball, Tigers starter Justin Thompson also had a relatively smooth inning, walking leadoff man Shannon Stewart and then retiring the next three. The subsequent innings showed that Halladay meant business in the game of baseball. The top of second brought the heart of the Tigers order: Tony "Tall Glass of Water" Clark, Luis Gonzalez, and slugging Robert Fick. Two easy groundouts, and a strikeout looking on only 8 pitches. 

The rest of the start was much like the first two innings. Halladay was so dominant, he only had one 3-ball count. In fact, out of 29 batters faced, only six of them had an at-bat long enough to get to ball 2. Only three innings required more than 10 pitches to retire the Tigers. 

All in all, he racked up 8 strikeouts, 5 swinging, 95 pitches, 0 walks, and one hit.

It is that one hit that would prevent Halladay from achieving history. At 21 years and 4 months, he would have been the second youngest pitcher to throw a no-hitter in American League history, second to Vida Blue. He would have joined Bobo Holloman and Wilson Alvarez to be the only pitchers throw a no-hitter in his first two starts (Clay Buchholz would join that group in 2007).

It wasn't just any hit. It wasn't a third inning line drive. It wasn't a sixth inning bloop that would draw some disappointment from the more attentive fans. It wasn't an eighth inning bunt that would draw booing and jeering from the Toronto faithful. Oh no, it was an absolute dagger that resulted in sheer anger and exasperation: a ninth inning, two out, opposite field home run. 

In the top of the fourth inning, Jays second basemen Craig Grebeck was taken from the game and replaced with Felipe Crespo. Crespo botched the very first ground ball he saw, allowing Clark to reach first on his error. Had Crespo fielded this ball cleanly, Halladay would have had a bid at a perfect game going into the ninth. Instead, he had to settle for a no-hit bid. Ho hum.

Halladay was not phased; he struck out five more batters and allowed only two balls out of the infield from the 4th to the 9th innings. 

At this point late in the game, Halladay took the mound only three outs from history. The Tigers had 8-9-1 coming up to try to stave off the embarrassment of a no-hitter. Gabe Kapler lined out sharply to left fielder Shannon Stewart to lead off the inning.

One down.

Paul Bako, pinch hitting for the smiley and young Deivi Cruz, weakly grounded to second after a relatively respectable at-bat (he was one of the few to work a 2-ball count). 

Two out, and one more relatively easy out in Kimera Bartee who had already struck out twice and was only hitting .194 on the season. 

Manager Larry Parrish, grasping at straws for any type of offense, then called on Bobby Higginson to pinch hit for center fielder Bartee. Higginson was having a solid season, batting .284 with 24 home runs to this point. He had never faced this young stud in Halladay. None of the Tigers had, and boy did it show.

The lightly goateed slugger toed the plate and calmly served the first pitch he saw to the left field bleachers. All 38,000 fans at the Rogers Centre assumably sat down in disbelief that this kid had just been robbed of a golden opportunity to assert himself as one of the best rookie performances in history. 

I have scoured the internet to find any hint at how he reacted. The New York Times merely says the rookie pitcher was one out away from history. The free Detroit Free Press archives do not go back far enough to include this game. Similarly, the Detroit News archives begin January 1, 1999. In a postgame interview, the Toronto Star reported Halladay saying "I'm going to feel that there's a lot of pressure next year, probably some more expectations." Did he throw his glove down in disgust? Did he shake his head out of incredulousness or upset that he threw a bad pitch? Did he curse into his glove? Probably not, Halladay is a classy guy. But as a 21-year old, who knows. 

Knowing him, he probably shook his head, asked for a new ball from home plate umpire Jim McKean, and threw his nastiest pitch of the afternoon to nail Frank Catalanotto, who lined out to short on the next pitch to end the game. The game took only an hour and forty-five minutes. 

Jays 2, Tigers 1. Halladay's one mistake and Higginson's 379 foot rocket cost him a place in history. 

As always, thanks for reading. I'll do another post in the near future about his Hall of Fame credentials and why he was the last of a dying breed.

The Mid-Summer Classic

So this weekend I watched a little bit of the NBA All-Star Game and skills contests and the like. And if you ask me, a little bit was way too much. Sure it was fun to see some crazy windmill dunks and a ton of three point shooting, but being named an All-Star doesn't really mean as much as it does in the MLB.

Baseball is the only sport in which the All-Star Game carries some weight. It's also the only All-Star Game that hasn't been required to change its format because of lack of interest. The Pro Bowl recently switched over to the Rice vs. Sanders teams, no longer AFC vs. NFC. The NHL has done a similar format, with two team captains picking their teams (2012 was Team Chara vs. Team Alfredsson). The NBA still does East vs. West, but it's becoming such a spectacle of athleticism and just a showcase of outlandish skills that it's really not fun to watch. It seems this year that the NBA was more concerned with the dunk contest than the game itself, with the hashtag #SavetheDunkContest powering through the Twittersphere. Can you really take a game that has this seriously? I think Shaq is as hilarious as the next guy, but come on now.

The MLB All-Star Game is a thing of beauty though - because it means something. I'm not a huge fan of the rule that every team gets a representative, but I understand it. It goes hand in hand with the democracy of baseball. How else are the Astros fans going to watch the game? To see their boy Jason Castro get an inning behind the plate of course. 

The MLB All-Star game winner determines who gets home field advantage for the World Series, and I love that idea. It's not just a random break in the action of the summer to show off who has the fastest 60 yard dash speed, who has the best arm accuracy...the only skills competition is the Home Run Derby, but other than that the break is focused on the actual game itself. Weird, right? 

Yesterday, the final score of the NBA All-Star Game was 163-155. That's a total of 318 points, and when divided by the regulation game time of 48 minutes, that's 6.625 points a minute. That's approximately one basket every twenty seconds. Blake Griffin shot 19-23, a field goal percentage of 82%. This season, he's averaging a 54% field goal percentage, which is great. But to see almost a 30 point hike is absolutely no fun. It's not basketball anymore, it's more of a "Hey, you haven't scored in a while, take the ball and do something fancy." 

The 2013 MLB All-Star game was a nail biter. The AL won 3-0, with Jason Kipnis locking it up with an RBI double in the 8th and setting up Mariano Rivera for his last All Star save. These guys don't see this game as a break. Sure it's nice to have a few days off from the intense inter-divisional schedule, but the All-Star Game carries so much weight so they will hustle all the harder. I mean last year Prince Fielder got a triple, need I say more? 

I'm not arguing that baseball is a better sport in general (though that is indeed my personal belief). I am arguing that the MLB All-Star Game is the best of the four major sports because it means something. Being an All-Star starter is a huge honor because they fight for their league pride, not just to wear fancy shoes (like Bryce Harper) and go wow the crowd for awhile. Just ask Max Scherzer on his thoughts of what it meant to be the AL's staring pitcher. The All-Star Game is one of my favorite nights of the year, because it is the highest quality baseball you'll ever see, and it determines the fate of October. This past summer at the Hall of Fame we got to work a special event called the All Star Gala in which visitors could come and watch the game in a big theater on a 100-foot TV screen. I had the awesome opportunity to host and emcee the event and watch the game (where my Tigers all had a hit except Torii Hunter).  

To sum up my ramble, the other All-Star Games are mildly entertaining because you get to see players relaxed and show off their true athletic ability. But the MLB All-Star Game is truly special because of the weight it carries how big of an honor it is for a player to start. 

As always, thanks for reading. Don't fear the snow, folks. Baseball is back.

Happy Birthday!

Happy 34th birthday to Donald Thomas Kelly, also known as DK32, also known as my favorite player in the world. DK recently celebrated an aggressively average season, hitting .222, but he also hit the weights, blasting 6 home runs and 23 RBI's. He also only struck out 28 times in 112 games, which was a huge improvement from his 2012 campaign, when he struck out 22 times in only 75 games. 

This past year, DK was also honored with the 10th Man Award from the Detroit Baseball Society. Playing primarily as a sub for numerous players and positions, he honestly didn't really have much competition from the Tigers bench. Other subs that came to mind are Brayan Pena (one of the funniest guys to follow on Twitter, even if he's not on the Tigers anymore, @cuban2727), Ramon Santiago, Hernan Perez, and Matt Tuiasosopo. Pena was an awesome catching replacement, hitting a career high .297 in 71 games (one off of his career high). He also had a highlight reel of a game against the Yankees in the middle of the summer in which he had a home run and two singles. While Pena brought an offensive jolt compared to the free swinging, glorious facial hair growing Alex Avila, his defense was lacking. In terms of fielding percentage he was fine, but throwing out runners was not as good as the starter. For that reason, I think Pena was eliminated from competition for 10th man. Santiago and Perez, virtually spitting images of each other in all aspects, scuffled at the plate (Santiago had a higher average than DK, but shhh), hitting .224 and .197, respectively. They both are excellent fielders, but not as versatile as DK (in 2011, he played everything except second and short). Tuiasosopo, of whom I am a big fan, was hitting the cover off the ball at the beginning of the season, or at least until opposing pitching staffs realized offspeed pitching is his kryptonite. As of July 28th, he was hitting .301. Two months later, he was hitting .244. In an interview with mLive writer James Schmehl, Tui recognized that pitchers were facing him differently and that he needed to fix his approach. He admitted he was swinging at a lot of bad pitches in the dirt and then it threw off his mojo. Understandable, but not acceptable. Like I said, I'm a huge fan of Tui, and if he had made the proper adjustments, I think he would have been the right choice. 

DK is arguably the most defensively versatile player in the game today. He is the only active player to have played all nine positions. In 2011, he was brought on to pitch against the Mets in a 16-9 fiasco of a loss, where he got Scott Hairston to fly out to center on a 71 mph breaking ball. Yes, you read that right. His fastball hit 86. Not bad.

I love DK because he's a hustler. He gives 100% every day, regardless of what the skipper needed. He's a good example of hard work and dedication for young players. He went to an NAIA school and got drafted by his hometown Pirates, and recently signed his first million dollar contract with the Tigers. He's not a diva, he's not a prima donna, he just does his work. He might not always hit .350 with 45 home runs, but he comes through when he needs to. Prime example: August 6 against the Indians (right in the middle of the Tigers 10 game win streak against the Indians or something like that). The Tigers won 5-1 over Justin Masterson, thanks to DK. He went 3-4 with 3 RBI's and run scored. That was a big game with big implications for the AL Central. He stepped up when he needed to. 

So happy birthday, Deek. Not the most glamorous player, but certainly the hardest working. I mean, if anyone can pick up Prince Fielder, how can you not be the hardest working? 

As always, thanks for reading. 

O Captain, My Captain

Derek Jeter announced via Facebook yesterday (Feb 12) that he will retire from professional  baseball after his 2014 season. Those of you that know me well know that I absolutely worshipped Jeter throughout my childhood. When I was a wee tot and just broke into the ultra-minor leagues (7-year old little league), I was placed on the Yankees, so sorry folks, I am not a Yankee hater. Quite the opposite in fact. 

My first memory of Jeter was an All-Star Game. I cannot remember which year, but I remember recognizing the famous "NY" logo on his jersey and telling my dad that it was the same as mine! Jeter must have done something amazing in that game because I was hooked. I followed his career like a hawk (as much as a 7-year old can be a hawk). I sent him birthday letters, I got his jersey for Christmas like 5 years in a row. I wanted to wear #2 at every sport (I was #2 up until junior year in high school), just to be like him. I bought his Jumpman cleats sophomore year and still wore them my summer after freshman year in college just because of the symbolism. I wanted to play shortstop. I wanted to wear the pinstripes. I wanted to be the class act that he was and play baseball on the biggest stage for a living. To prove it, here's an incredibly flattering picture of me at my 12th birthday seeing a Tigers/Yankees game: Please note the tube socks, the pinstripe jersey combined with Tigers cap, and yes, I taped his baseball card to my incredibly colorful poster. 

Say what you will about the Yankees, but no one can deny Jeter's leadership. Despite having a .312 career average, 3,316 hits going into this year, and a career on base percentage of .381, to me, the most impressive thing about him is his 5 rings, and how convincingly he won them. Excluding the World Series that they lost, in the 5 successful endeavors, the Yankees never went past 6 games, and from '98-'00, they played 13 World Series games. It takes four wins to win a ring. 12 wins = 3 rings. And they only played 13. They were one game removed from three straight sweeps. The only game they lost was Game 3 in 2000, when El Duque (Orlando Hernandez) gave up 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th to the Mets, a deficit which the Yankees could not overcome. The Yankees would hold off the Mets for the rest of that series; a series in which Jeter was the MVP. Despite striking out 8 times in 5 games, Jeter hit .409, and had a crazy on base percentage of .480. 

In his postseason career as a whole, Jeter has hit .308, racking up 200 hits and 20 home runs in 158 games, four games short of adding an entire season on to his career. 

As long as Jeter has played professional baseball, the Yankees have never had a sub .500 season. In the 18 full seasons he's had, his team has only failed to win fewer than 90 games 3 times. He is the greatest leader I know in the sports world. I wouldn't go so far as to say he is a 5-tool player naturally, but he made himself one. He averaged 16 home runs and 22 steals a season, both really solid numbers for a shortstop. He's not a power hungry guy though; he rarely struck out, and the majority of his home runs were line drive shots that just snuck over the fence (a lot of that is due to playing in a band box of Yankee Stadium, but we won't go there). 

We'll all remember "The Flip" to Jorge Posada to nab Jeremy Giambi in the 2000 ALDS. We'll all remember "The Dive" into the stands against the Red Sox in July of 2004. We'll all remember his 3,000th hit which was a moonshot to left-center, a script that you couldn't write any better: in front of his home crowd, full count, off of Cy Young winner David Price. We'll remember his father-son type relationship with Joe Torre. But here are my two favorite things about Jeter (I won't count that he grew up in Michigan):

• He never won an MVP. I will go on record and say that he is the best non-pitcher of the MVP era to have not won that award. Others that come to mind: Al Kaline, Billy Williams, and Pee Wee Reese, but these guys are nowhere near the caliber of Jeter's career. I may be putting too much weight on the rings, but again, this is my personal opinion. But why does the lack of hardware make him great? It kept him humble. It kept him hungry. It kept him focused on the real prize of winning World Series and boy did he do that. Personal glory in terms of MVP's are great, but at the end of the day, why is the baseball world rocked by Jeter's departure? Rings. Other than his Rookie of the Year, his goal was to win it all. Compare this to Miguel Cabrera or Justin Verlander (winners of the last three MVP awards), despite their personal hardware and success, if you asked them, I'd guarantee they'd prefer a single World Series over 10 MVPs.
• He stuck with one team his entire career. In this day and age, players are looking for a big contract rather than team loyalty (Josh Hamilton, Robby Cano). Sure, it's easy to stay in the same place when you're making $21 million a year, BUT he loved the Yankees enough, in that harsh of an environment, to stay there for 20 years. Again, sure, it's easy to be loved by a crowd when you hit .300 year in and year out and bring the city a championship three years in a row, BUT he refused to go anywhere but New York when his contract was up. 

I grew up with Derek Jeter. My maturity as a baseball fan coincided with his career. As often as I watched the Tigers, I would also check Jeter's line to make sure my captain got a hit. I don't mind the Yankees, and I know a lot of people hate their guts, but Jeter is an exception. Back in the days before my house had cable and I could only watch postseason baseball, I had no choice but to watch the Yankees because they were there so often and I watched, emulated, noted, appreciated, and like I said earlier, worshipped Derek Jeter.

After he retires for real after 2014, baseball will feel weird. I don't know how else to put it, it's just going to be different because he has been around the same amount of time I've been a fan. My dad would always share stories of his favorite players, Gates Brown and Denny McLain. His dad would share stories with my dad of his favorite players, Rudy York and Schoolboy Rowe. I can't wait to share my memories of Derek Jeter.